Half-Brick McCurdy
@halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social
A Scot in awe of Ukraine's courage
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
words from lexi alexander, who had been suspended from this platform for being palestinian
January 3, 2026 at 6:48 PM
words from lexi alexander, who had been suspended from this platform for being palestinian
1/5 The proposal to introduce differentiated rates for subsidised Russian mortgages is potentially a BFD. Whereas ending the preferential program in 2024 only slowed cost growth, this proposal would significantly cut the cost of subsidising new mortgages, by at least a 1/3 using December data*.
1/7 Rumours of the subsidised Russian mortgage’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. After becoming a significant cost (@markgaleotti.bsky.social recently noted Russia spends more on subsidised mortgages than police salaries), their availability was significantly reduced in July 2024.
January 2, 2026 at 11:44 AM
1/5 The proposal to introduce differentiated rates for subsidised Russian mortgages is potentially a BFD. Whereas ending the preferential program in 2024 only slowed cost growth, this proposal would significantly cut the cost of subsidising new mortgages, by at least a 1/3 using December data*.
1/3 Russian mortgages for the month ending Dec 1st saw another increase in lending due entirely to more subsidised lending. Having shown signs of a (very) modest recovery in recent months, non-subsidised lending instead fell back (from 24% of the total value in November to 22% in December),
December 30, 2025 at 12:12 PM
1/3 Russian mortgages for the month ending Dec 1st saw another increase in lending due entirely to more subsidised lending. Having shown signs of a (very) modest recovery in recent months, non-subsidised lending instead fell back (from 24% of the total value in November to 22% in December),
The Catch 22 of American security g'tees: Whereas a Biden would never give Ukraine a security g'tee because it might get called upon, a Trump g'tee isn't worth a damn because he'd never uphold it.
December 30, 2025 at 10:20 AM
The Catch 22 of American security g'tees: Whereas a Biden would never give Ukraine a security g'tee because it might get called upon, a Trump g'tee isn't worth a damn because he'd never uphold it.
1/2 A story in 2 parts: Indian imports of Russian oil fell back, but only because of "a suspension of purchases by Reliance Industries Ltd., Bloomberg reports. It was previously the largest buyer ... Reliance plans to resume oil purchases from Russia in early 2026". Meanwhile ...
In December 2025 Russian deliveries of oil to India will be the lowest they have been since 2022 at 1,1 million barrels per day vs 1,8 million in November. In the second week of December deliveries dropped to 712 000 barrels per day but then rose again.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8335994
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8335994
Bloomberg: в декабре Индия закупит у России минимальный объем нефти с 2022 года
Подробнее на сайте
www.kommersant.ru
December 30, 2025 at 10:07 AM
1/2 A story in 2 parts: Indian imports of Russian oil fell back, but only because of "a suspension of purchases by Reliance Industries Ltd., Bloomberg reports. It was previously the largest buyer ... Reliance plans to resume oil purchases from Russia in early 2026". Meanwhile ...
The whole Russian ship Ursa Major was probably carrying nuclear reactor components to N.Korea when it sunk after being torpedoed story is quite a thing.
Report: Lost Russian Ship Was Carrying Nuclear Submarine Reactor Parts
The special cargo aboard the Russian arms ship that went down off Cartagena last year was not what its crew initially reported, according to Spanish...
maritime-executive.com
December 30, 2025 at 12:43 AM
The whole Russian ship Ursa Major was probably carrying nuclear reactor components to N.Korea when it sunk after being torpedoed story is quite a thing.
Christmas banger
Safety Off
YouTube video by Cari Lekebusch - Topic
www.youtube.com
December 24, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Christmas banger
1/2 The cherry on top here is that oil tanker charter rates have c.trebled since July. That’s the market as a whole, not the Russian bit were rates and insurance presumably now have to take into account the successful drone strikes on the Virat (vlcc), Kairos (Suezmax) and Qendil (Aframax) tankers.
December 23, 2025 at 6:51 PM
1/2 The cherry on top here is that oil tanker charter rates have c.trebled since July. That’s the market as a whole, not the Russian bit were rates and insurance presumably now have to take into account the successful drone strikes on the Virat (vlcc), Kairos (Suezmax) and Qendil (Aframax) tankers.
Even by American standards, Louisiana is a shit-hole and the cultural antithesis of Denmark. Appointing it's governor special envoy to Greenland is a perfect example of America's blathering hubris.
December 23, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Even by American standards, Louisiana is a shit-hole and the cultural antithesis of Denmark. Appointing it's governor special envoy to Greenland is a perfect example of America's blathering hubris.
In theory, the economics of this are perfectly manageable - an eventual, unexpected tax rise here, additional government debt foisted on majority state owned banks there - but the notion the Russian economy is impregnable and that the invasion is a blue-collar economic Renaissance, not so much.
Russian Urals oil prices have plunged to around 34 dollars a barrel as steep discounts tied to US sanctions hit demand according to Bloomberg and Argus Media. Baltic and Black Sea grades are trading well below Brent which remains near 61 dollars showing the gap in pricing.
December 22, 2025 at 4:05 PM
In theory, the economics of this are perfectly manageable - an eventual, unexpected tax rise here, additional government debt foisted on majority state owned banks there - but the notion the Russian economy is impregnable and that the invasion is a blue-collar economic Renaissance, not so much.
Graham's sanctions bill was introduced on April Fools day *
Senator Graham advocates providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles if Putin refuses a peace agreement.
December 22, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Graham's sanctions bill was introduced on April Fools day *
A reminder the media fixation with US talks and talking points serves mostly to distract from the horror Russia has unleashed on Ukraine.
Russia used chemical agents over 6,500 times on the battlefield in 2025, with nearly 12,000 documented cases since the full-scale invasion began, peaking at 894 attacks in April using K-51 and RG-VO grenades with CS and CN irritants, Ukrainian Support Forces Command reported.
December 19, 2025 at 11:50 AM
A reminder the media fixation with US talks and talking points serves mostly to distract from the horror Russia has unleashed on Ukraine.
What Russian occupation means and what America is trying to force on 100s of thousands of Ukrainians without any possibility for justice.
“They forced me to cook, clean, and fulfill their sexual whims”: Testimony of a Ukrainian woman enslaved by Russian soldiers
“They forced me to cook, clean, and fulfill their sexual whims”: Testimony of a Ukrainian woman enslaved by Russian soldiers
At the end of October 2025, the international tribunal in The Hague heard testimony from Olena Yahupova, a resident of the town of Kamianka-Dniprovska in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Region. Recently, Yahup...
theins.press
December 18, 2025 at 11:56 AM
What Russian occupation means and what America is trying to force on 100s of thousands of Ukrainians without any possibility for justice.
1/5 I reckon Craig Kennedy is more Chuck Pfarrer than Mick Ryan. To give one example, his latest piece doesn't mention interest rates once*. Given it includes a description of recent Russian credit conditions and business investment, this is a bad thing.
New Craig Kennedy substack post out today, this time on Russian state finances. Wondering* where to put it on the spectrum of Russian invasion commentators that has Chuck Pfarrer at one end and Mick Ryan on the other.
Restraining Russian Oil: New Sanctions are Poised to Further Erode Moscow’s Faltering War Finances [highlights from forthcoming reports]
Given a chance to take their toll, new oil sanctions should accelerate the Russian energy sector's steep decline, intensify Moscow’s cashflow squeeze, and strengthen the West’s negotiating hand.
substack.com
December 18, 2025 at 11:00 AM
1/5 I reckon Craig Kennedy is more Chuck Pfarrer than Mick Ryan. To give one example, his latest piece doesn't mention interest rates once*. Given it includes a description of recent Russian credit conditions and business investment, this is a bad thing.
Given the EU moved to officially seize the Russian cash 6 days ago, we now know how long it takes information to penetrate the concentric circles of dumb, hubris and cheeseburgers surrounding America's decision-makers.
US government is going to extreme lengths to help Putin and hurt Ukraine.
Now threatening European states that if they use Russian assets to help Ukraine, they will have to pay it all back.
Trump is desperate to give Putin his money back.
Now threatening European states that if they use Russian assets to help Ukraine, they will have to pay it all back.
Trump is desperate to give Putin his money back.
December 17, 2025 at 9:32 PM
Given the EU moved to officially seize the Russian cash 6 days ago, we now know how long it takes information to penetrate the concentric circles of dumb, hubris and cheeseburgers surrounding America's decision-makers.
It's possible to quantify the magnitude of this "rebuke"; the $400m aid per year for Ukraine is better than nothing, but barely 2/3 of the average sent per week by the Biden administration (average includes the 6 month aid freeze Trump was able to impose).
US defence act passes in rebuke to Trump administration’s stance on Europe ft.trib.al/wpMUaQN
US defence act passes in rebuke to Trump administration’s stance on Europe
Legislation commits to minimum troop numbers on the continent and continued assistance to Ukraine
ft.trib.al
December 17, 2025 at 6:27 PM
It's possible to quantify the magnitude of this "rebuke"; the $400m aid per year for Ukraine is better than nothing, but barely 2/3 of the average sent per week by the Biden administration (average includes the 6 month aid freeze Trump was able to impose).
1/2 Seems the US is gearing up for another sanctionspalooza
Fox News Dec 14th: 1,000-strong "dark fleet" of rogue oil tankers skirting sanctions has emerged as a new target for the U.S. and Ukraine, a senior maritime intelligence analyst claims.
Dec 16th: 4 US senators introduced a bipartisan
Fox News Dec 14th: 1,000-strong "dark fleet" of rogue oil tankers skirting sanctions has emerged as a new target for the U.S. and Ukraine, a senior maritime intelligence analyst claims.
Dec 16th: 4 US senators introduced a bipartisan
December 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
1/2 Seems the US is gearing up for another sanctionspalooza
Fox News Dec 14th: 1,000-strong "dark fleet" of rogue oil tankers skirting sanctions has emerged as a new target for the U.S. and Ukraine, a senior maritime intelligence analyst claims.
Dec 16th: 4 US senators introduced a bipartisan
Fox News Dec 14th: 1,000-strong "dark fleet" of rogue oil tankers skirting sanctions has emerged as a new target for the U.S. and Ukraine, a senior maritime intelligence analyst claims.
Dec 16th: 4 US senators introduced a bipartisan
So "Heroes next door" is finishing, and it's the been the best telly programme for ages. Bah.
December 16, 2025 at 7:55 PM
So "Heroes next door" is finishing, and it's the been the best telly programme for ages. Bah.
In honour of both America's love for Russia and offer of a security guarantee
December 16, 2025 at 11:11 AM
In honour of both America's love for Russia and offer of a security guarantee
My timeline just now
America: Agrees to do something
Also America: Unilaterally suspends agreement to do something
America: Agrees to do something
Also America: Unilaterally suspends agreement to do something
December 16, 2025 at 8:42 AM
My timeline just now
America: Agrees to do something
Also America: Unilaterally suspends agreement to do something
America: Agrees to do something
Also America: Unilaterally suspends agreement to do something
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
Russian Business news 15/December/2025:
Russia because it was the only exporter of nitrogen fertilizers not under tariffs by the US managed to increase its share on the US market to 35% of all imports.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8291549
Russia because it was the only exporter of nitrogen fertilizers not under tariffs by the US managed to increase its share on the US market to 35% of all imports.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8291549
По карбамидовским каналам
Россия нарастила долю в поставках азотных удобрений в США до 35%
www.kommersant.ru
December 16, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Russian Business news 15/December/2025:
Russia because it was the only exporter of nitrogen fertilizers not under tariffs by the US managed to increase its share on the US market to 35% of all imports.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8291549
Russia because it was the only exporter of nitrogen fertilizers not under tariffs by the US managed to increase its share on the US market to 35% of all imports.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8291549
New Craig Kennedy substack post out today, this time on Russian state finances. Wondering* where to put it on the spectrum of Russian invasion commentators that has Chuck Pfarrer at one end and Mick Ryan on the other.
Restraining Russian Oil: New Sanctions are Poised to Further Erode Moscow’s Faltering War Finances [highlights from forthcoming reports]
Given a chance to take their toll, new oil sanctions should accelerate the Russian energy sector's steep decline, intensify Moscow’s cashflow squeeze, and strengthen the West’s negotiating hand.
substack.com
December 15, 2025 at 2:35 PM
New Craig Kennedy substack post out today, this time on Russian state finances. Wondering* where to put it on the spectrum of Russian invasion commentators that has Chuck Pfarrer at one end and Mick Ryan on the other.
Reposted by Half-Brick McCurdy
Russia just said the quiet part out loud.
Russia’s ambassador to the UK, Andrey Kelin, admitted there is no “deal” to be made with Ukraine — only an agreement on its surrender.
That single sentence destroys years of Kremlin talk about “peace” and “negotiations.”👇
Russia’s ambassador to the UK, Andrey Kelin, admitted there is no “deal” to be made with Ukraine — only an agreement on its surrender.
That single sentence destroys years of Kremlin talk about “peace” and “negotiations.”👇
December 14, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Russia just said the quiet part out loud.
Russia’s ambassador to the UK, Andrey Kelin, admitted there is no “deal” to be made with Ukraine — only an agreement on its surrender.
That single sentence destroys years of Kremlin talk about “peace” and “negotiations.”👇
Russia’s ambassador to the UK, Andrey Kelin, admitted there is no “deal” to be made with Ukraine — only an agreement on its surrender.
That single sentence destroys years of Kremlin talk about “peace” and “negotiations.”👇
Russia/America are giving more Molotov-Ribbentrop than they are Chamberlain vibes TBH
🇩🇪 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz drew a historical parallel, warning that if Ukraine falls, Russian aggression will not stop. He compared the situation to 1938, when appeasement after the Sudetenland was insufficient, suggesting Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine.
December 13, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Russia/America are giving more Molotov-Ribbentrop than they are Chamberlain vibes TBH
1/2 Self-important drivel from 2 fancy boy Americans who'd rather you didn't mention the US now regularly votes alongside Russia in the UN on Ukraine matters, and who use careful curation to misrepresent America's actual position.
In a sign of desperation for Kyiv, Ukraine is striking tankers carrying Russian oil, Simon Shuster and Jonathan Lemire report:
The War Moves From Ukraine to the High Seas
New rules of engagement that allow Ukraine to hit oil tankers are a sign of Kyiv's desperation.
bit.ly
December 12, 2025 at 10:12 PM
1/2 Self-important drivel from 2 fancy boy Americans who'd rather you didn't mention the US now regularly votes alongside Russia in the UN on Ukraine matters, and who use careful curation to misrepresent America's actual position.