Half-Brick McCurdy
@halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social
A Scot in awe of Ukraine's courage
2/2 America is prioritising undermining European unity and helping Russia, over expanding its own oil and gas exports.
* comparing the value and volume of exports in 2022 shows American exporters had a frickin' bonanza that year
* comparing the value and volume of exports in 2022 shows American exporters had a frickin' bonanza that year
November 9, 2025 at 4:24 PM
2/2 America is prioritising undermining European unity and helping Russia, over expanding its own oil and gas exports.
* comparing the value and volume of exports in 2022 shows American exporters had a frickin' bonanza that year
* comparing the value and volume of exports in 2022 shows American exporters had a frickin' bonanza that year
* also includes examples of American think tank brain - see attached
November 7, 2025 at 4:16 PM
* also includes examples of American think tank brain - see attached
November 6, 2025 at 10:18 AM
2/3 The recent run of interest rate cuts have had some impact, but this remains marginal; The increase in the weighted average interest rate for new mortgages in October can be attributed to a higher proportion of loans being issued at market rates, which have decreased since June.
November 4, 2025 at 11:58 AM
2/3 The recent run of interest rate cuts have had some impact, but this remains marginal; The increase in the weighted average interest rate for new mortgages in October can be attributed to a higher proportion of loans being issued at market rates, which have decreased since June.
1/3 New Russian new mortgage lending remains subdued and, with subsidised loans accounting for 83% of the YTD total, continues to be driven by government policy, at a remove from broader market conditions.
November 4, 2025 at 11:58 AM
1/3 New Russian new mortgage lending remains subdued and, with subsidised loans accounting for 83% of the YTD total, continues to be driven by government policy, at a remove from broader market conditions.
True, but the US has sought to shape (initially to micro-manage) and constrain the Ukrainian response in ways that match US objectives. As for analytical dead ends, this book arguably groups them all together. It certainly conveys American hubris as to whose war it is and whose assessments matter.
November 2, 2025 at 6:00 PM
True, but the US has sought to shape (initially to micro-manage) and constrain the Ukrainian response in ways that match US objectives. As for analytical dead ends, this book arguably groups them all together. It certainly conveys American hubris as to whose war it is and whose assessments matter.
2/2 master manipulator, the latest phone call and Budapest meeting as was, mostly served to bolster the existing US position on Ukraine, as excuses to continue doing nothing, while maintaining the impression, via a complicit media, of US support.
Hat tip to Michael Weiss for pointing out the hatred
Hat tip to Michael Weiss for pointing out the hatred
October 22, 2025 at 11:02 AM
2/2 master manipulator, the latest phone call and Budapest meeting as was, mostly served to bolster the existing US position on Ukraine, as excuses to continue doing nothing, while maintaining the impression, via a complicit media, of US support.
Hat tip to Michael Weiss for pointing out the hatred
Hat tip to Michael Weiss for pointing out the hatred
After the climb down comes Americans talking about sanctions again. OFC Lindsay Graham is namechecked and ofc it's yet more wait and see. Here's Senate Majority Leader John Thune the day of the Putin phone call vs yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile its 295 days since the US last approved an aid package
October 21, 2025 at 12:11 PM
After the climb down comes Americans talking about sanctions again. OFC Lindsay Graham is namechecked and ofc it's yet more wait and see. Here's Senate Majority Leader John Thune the day of the Putin phone call vs yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile its 295 days since the US last approved an aid package
1/2 On the centrality of the majority Kremlin owned Sberbank to financing Russia's invasion; welp they're by far the single largest buyer of government debt/are financing the Kremlin's growing deficit. And cheers to @delfoo.bsky.social for providing quarterly OFZ sales data.
October 17, 2025 at 7:21 PM
1/2 On the centrality of the majority Kremlin owned Sberbank to financing Russia's invasion; welp they're by far the single largest buyer of government debt/are financing the Kremlin's growing deficit. And cheers to @delfoo.bsky.social for providing quarterly OFZ sales data.
3/3 * amortisation, varying valuation methods, simple rounding etc., presumably all apply, so this is offered on a back of a fag packet basis only.
October 17, 2025 at 11:49 AM
3/3 * amortisation, varying valuation methods, simple rounding etc., presumably all apply, so this is offered on a back of a fag packet basis only.
3/3 Meanwhile the supposedly unpredictable and/or mercurial Trump remains remarkably consistent. Out of office, he blocked new Ukraine aid for months, in office, zero new aid has been approved and previously approved aid intermittently blocked, with pressure only ever applied to Ukraine.
October 17, 2025 at 11:08 AM
3/3 Meanwhile the supposedly unpredictable and/or mercurial Trump remains remarkably consistent. Out of office, he blocked new Ukraine aid for months, in office, zero new aid has been approved and previously approved aid intermittently blocked, with pressure only ever applied to Ukraine.
Sberbank's Q2 2025 presentation shows the H1 net increase in their OFZ holdings. How does that compare to the total issued in H1 2025 i.e. what % is it? (I realise amortisation and valuation methods mean this can only be indicative)
October 17, 2025 at 10:41 AM
Sberbank's Q2 2025 presentation shows the H1 net increase in their OFZ holdings. How does that compare to the total issued in H1 2025 i.e. what % is it? (I realise amortisation and valuation methods mean this can only be indicative)
Handicapped by the failure of American analysts to seriously consider the centrality of bullshit to America's position. Less Clausewitz, more Harry G. Frankfurt needed.
October 15, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Handicapped by the failure of American analysts to seriously consider the centrality of bullshit to America's position. Less Clausewitz, more Harry G. Frankfurt needed.
1/2 Russian inflation peaked 2022 with the initial sanctions shock/China realignment and associated crisis interest rates. 20+% inflation would likely prompt a depreciation because if sustained folk would start looking for hyperinflation. As for Russia controlling its exchange rate, every country
October 8, 2025 at 5:24 PM
1/2 Russian inflation peaked 2022 with the initial sanctions shock/China realignment and associated crisis interest rates. 20+% inflation would likely prompt a depreciation because if sustained folk would start looking for hyperinflation. As for Russia controlling its exchange rate, every country
Also a practical lesson for other protestors that some outfits are more effective than others (and genuinely cool).
October 8, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Also a practical lesson for other protestors that some outfits are more effective than others (and genuinely cool).
Is the rouble particularly "strong" when compared to the 18 months after July 2023?
October 8, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Is the rouble particularly "strong" when compared to the 18 months after July 2023?
There's multiple - inter-connected - rates to consider here, how much government pays to borrow (bond yields), the rates banks charge customers and the central bank rate. As for keeping rates low, Russia is prioritising managing inflation via high rates, which makes sense given its inflation history
October 8, 2025 at 1:19 PM
There's multiple - inter-connected - rates to consider here, how much government pays to borrow (bond yields), the rates banks charge customers and the central bank rate. As for keeping rates low, Russia is prioritising managing inflation via high rates, which makes sense given its inflation history
2/2 youth in trenches bombarded by glide bombs. Finally, discuss Ukrainian attitudes to Russian soldiers without referencing this being an existential war or ongoing Russian war crimes e.g. torture/murder of POWs, using chemical weapons, the Kherson civilian "safari"
(Keeps it in the news I guess)
(Keeps it in the news I guess)
October 8, 2025 at 11:59 AM
2/2 youth in trenches bombarded by glide bombs. Finally, discuss Ukrainian attitudes to Russian soldiers without referencing this being an existential war or ongoing Russian war crimes e.g. torture/murder of POWs, using chemical weapons, the Kherson civilian "safari"
(Keeps it in the news I guess)
(Keeps it in the news I guess)
October 6, 2025 at 12:22 PM
The BBC taking its cue from Fox News here is a bit weird (and also like Fox they're in the process of burying the other mass shooting involving another former marine who appears to have been a Right wing lunatic).
September 28, 2025 at 11:18 PM
The BBC taking its cue from Fox News here is a bit weird (and also like Fox they're in the process of burying the other mass shooting involving another former marine who appears to have been a Right wing lunatic).
Nae bother. Your posts are always excellent and very informative. All I've been getting at is that if banks borrow at 17.41% to buy X amount of government debt paying 14.24%, then they need to lend X + Y at 21.21% to cross subsidise.
September 27, 2025 at 7:18 PM
Nae bother. Your posts are always excellent and very informative. All I've been getting at is that if banks borrow at 17.41% to buy X amount of government debt paying 14.24%, then they need to lend X + Y at 21.21% to cross subsidise.
3/5 meltdown and/or collapse that remains forever over the brow of the next hill. I get there’s an information war, and undermining confidence in Russian banks would certainly hurt, but being consistently wrong helps nobody. Moreover, media warriors, like Americans, help the next lot seem plausible.
September 27, 2025 at 11:31 AM
3/5 meltdown and/or collapse that remains forever over the brow of the next hill. I get there’s an information war, and undermining confidence in Russian banks would certainly hurt, but being consistently wrong helps nobody. Moreover, media warriors, like Americans, help the next lot seem plausible.
2/2 are still being slow-rolled and vulnerable to being blocked. Rather, the new tone serves to distract from and preserve America's existing stance; warm words that pander to correspondents paid to pretend something has happened.
September 24, 2025 at 7:21 AM
2/2 are still being slow-rolled and vulnerable to being blocked. Rather, the new tone serves to distract from and preserve America's existing stance; warm words that pander to correspondents paid to pretend something has happened.