Aaron K
@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social
Stars fan, data fan, handle to the tune of "Radio Free Europe"
He/him
https://puckovertheglass.substack.com/
He/him
https://puckovertheglass.substack.com/
Pinned
Aaron K
@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social
· Dec 19
Something Strange Is Going On with the NHL's Play-By-Play
The Box Scores, They Are A-Changin'
open.substack.com
New post: Something Strange Is Going On with the NHL’s Play-By-Play
Looking at changes in shot locations and scorekeeper bias and a guess at what’s behind the change
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
Looking at changes in shot locations and scorekeeper bias and a guess at what’s behind the change
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
Reposted by Aaron K
New post: What's going on with Thomas Harley this season and should the Stars be concerned? Why his down season may not be as much about him as it seems.
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
What Happened To Thomas Harley?
A deep dive into what's been troubling the Star defenseman this season
open.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 7:27 PM
New post: What's going on with Thomas Harley this season and should the Stars be concerned? Why his down season may not be as much about him as it seems.
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
New post: What's going on with Thomas Harley this season and should the Stars be concerned? Why his down season may not be as much about him as it seems.
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
What Happened To Thomas Harley?
A deep dive into what's been troubling the Star defenseman this season
open.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 7:27 PM
New post: What's going on with Thomas Harley this season and should the Stars be concerned? Why his down season may not be as much about him as it seems.
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
Reposted by Aaron K
New Feature: Team cards.
Team cards for the current season and the past 5 seasons can be found in the 'Team Cards' tab on team pages.
thestanleycap.com/teams/pittsb...
Team cards for the current season and the past 5 seasons can be found in the 'Team Cards' tab on team pages.
thestanleycap.com/teams/pittsb...
The Stanley Cap - Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap, Player Contracts, Rosters, Depth Charts and active lineups, News, Statistics, Analytics and more
thestanleycap.com
January 16, 2026 at 7:21 PM
New Feature: Team cards.
Team cards for the current season and the past 5 seasons can be found in the 'Team Cards' tab on team pages.
thestanleycap.com/teams/pittsb...
Team cards for the current season and the past 5 seasons can be found in the 'Team Cards' tab on team pages.
thestanleycap.com/teams/pittsb...
Reposted by Aaron K
NEW WEBSITE UPDATE:
- Exponential decay RAPM charts are now updated
- New assist plots are up with video. These are calculated using the NHL puck/player tracking API (available for goals only)
- Fixed some bugs. Utah players are back now. MTL logos appear on video page
- Exponential decay RAPM charts are now updated
- New assist plots are up with video. These are calculated using the NHL puck/player tracking API (available for goals only)
- Fixed some bugs. Utah players are back now. MTL logos appear on video page
January 15, 2026 at 3:02 PM
NEW WEBSITE UPDATE:
- Exponential decay RAPM charts are now updated
- New assist plots are up with video. These are calculated using the NHL puck/player tracking API (available for goals only)
- Fixed some bugs. Utah players are back now. MTL logos appear on video page
- Exponential decay RAPM charts are now updated
- New assist plots are up with video. These are calculated using the NHL puck/player tracking API (available for goals only)
- Fixed some bugs. Utah players are back now. MTL logos appear on video page
Reposted by Aaron K
Short thread on something I've been watching all season: first, just how bad has Harley been? Using @evolving-hockey.com SPAR and xSPAR to compare him with other defensemen with similar usage at his age, his drop-off this year is unprecedented
January 14, 2026 at 9:31 PM
Short thread on something I've been watching all season: first, just how bad has Harley been? Using @evolving-hockey.com SPAR and xSPAR to compare him with other defensemen with similar usage at his age, his drop-off this year is unprecedented
Short thread on something I've been watching all season: first, just how bad has Harley been? Using @evolving-hockey.com SPAR and xSPAR to compare him with other defensemen with similar usage at his age, his drop-off this year is unprecedented
January 14, 2026 at 9:31 PM
Short thread on something I've been watching all season: first, just how bad has Harley been? Using @evolving-hockey.com SPAR and xSPAR to compare him with other defensemen with similar usage at his age, his drop-off this year is unprecedented
Reposted by Aaron K
This should help clarify what is and is not fair officiating:
January 13, 2026 at 6:57 PM
This should help clarify what is and is not fair officiating:
Reposted by Aaron K
ok nerds, it's your nerd Christmas www.nhl.com/avalanche/ne...
Introducing the Hockey Analytics League Operations (HALO) Meetings & Conference 2026 | Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche are proud to be hosting the sport’s biggest hockey analytics conference of the season this March. The event is expected to host representatives from at least 25 of the NHL’s 32 ...
www.nhl.com
January 10, 2026 at 5:07 PM
ok nerds, it's your nerd Christmas www.nhl.com/avalanche/ne...
Reposted by Aaron K
This is going to be an awesome event in March. It rocks that I get to be a part of it with @thomasdrance.bsky.social. We're already cooking up some fun shows for that week with special guests.
("popular" and "sophisticated" are their words, not ours. But i'll take it!)
www.nhl.com/avalanche/ne...
("popular" and "sophisticated" are their words, not ours. But i'll take it!)
www.nhl.com/avalanche/ne...
Introducing the Hockey Analytics League Operations (HALO) Meetings & Conference 2026 | Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche are proud to be hosting the sport’s biggest hockey analytics conference of the season this March. The event is expected to host representatives from at least 25 of the NHL’s 32 ...
www.nhl.com
January 7, 2026 at 8:38 PM
This is going to be an awesome event in March. It rocks that I get to be a part of it with @thomasdrance.bsky.social. We're already cooking up some fun shows for that week with special guests.
("popular" and "sophisticated" are their words, not ours. But i'll take it!)
www.nhl.com/avalanche/ne...
("popular" and "sophisticated" are their words, not ours. But i'll take it!)
www.nhl.com/avalanche/ne...
The Americans
Given that apparently the Stranger Things finale was meh (idk, didn't watch it, just the scuttlebutt) and we're not that far removed from the disastrous GOT finale that retroactively made everyone have never cared about the show:
What's the *best* ending to a show you've ever seen? Quote/reply etc
What's the *best* ending to a show you've ever seen? Quote/reply etc
January 7, 2026 at 12:18 AM
The Americans
Still fine-tuning things, but here are 5v5 shot shares for the 25-26 season for my xG model trained exclusively on the 24-25 season, broken down by shot outcomes. The model give xThru, xOn, and xG values for each corsi event, with blocked shot location estimated based on block location and shot type
January 6, 2026 at 7:45 PM
Still fine-tuning things, but here are 5v5 shot shares for the 25-26 season for my xG model trained exclusively on the 24-25 season, broken down by shot outcomes. The model give xThru, xOn, and xG values for each corsi event, with blocked shot location estimated based on block location and shot type
Reposted by Aaron K
An article looking at rush offence using women's Canadian University is up on my website. Had a lot of fun looking at rush offence in response to the discussion in the NHL.
While not directly applicable to the NHL tactically, I think there's important overlaps.
sites.google.com/view/bencsie...
While not directly applicable to the NHL tactically, I think there's important overlaps.
sites.google.com/view/bencsie...
January 6, 2026 at 5:52 PM
An article looking at rush offence using women's Canadian University is up on my website. Had a lot of fun looking at rush offence in response to the discussion in the NHL.
While not directly applicable to the NHL tactically, I think there's important overlaps.
sites.google.com/view/bencsie...
While not directly applicable to the NHL tactically, I think there's important overlaps.
sites.google.com/view/bencsie...
Returning to this, it appears the drop in 5v5 rush shot shooting percentage (below non-rush shooting percentage) is being driven mainly drops occurring in shots taken in the first two seconds after an event outside the offensive zone, with the largest drops happening in the 21-22 and 22-23 seasons
January 5, 2026 at 10:17 PM
Returning to this, it appears the drop in 5v5 rush shot shooting percentage (below non-rush shooting percentage) is being driven mainly drops occurring in shots taken in the first two seconds after an event outside the offensive zone, with the largest drops happening in the 21-22 and 22-23 seasons
Reposted by Aaron K
Coming soon to the website...
Obviously a lot to flesh out but would be cool to add some more metadata to that tooltip...maybe even shot velo? Gotta also figure out a way to do full rink stuff + make the tooltip not block the passing animations
Obviously a lot to flesh out but would be cool to add some more metadata to that tooltip...maybe even shot velo? Gotta also figure out a way to do full rink stuff + make the tooltip not block the passing animations
January 5, 2026 at 3:01 PM
Coming soon to the website...
Obviously a lot to flesh out but would be cool to add some more metadata to that tooltip...maybe even shot velo? Gotta also figure out a way to do full rink stuff + make the tooltip not block the passing animations
Obviously a lot to flesh out but would be cool to add some more metadata to that tooltip...maybe even shot velo? Gotta also figure out a way to do full rink stuff + make the tooltip not block the passing animations
Reposted by Aaron K
Apologies for everyone who is not on the other site, but I'm not rewriting the whole thread. Here are my thoughts on the state of the public NHL xG models.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...
Thread by @CJTDevil on Thread Reader App
@CJTDevil: Okay so I've talked to several of the modelers about this and I want to just give a sort of public report for posterity on the state of the public xG models and the NHL shot...
threadreaderapp.com
January 4, 2026 at 7:35 PM
Apologies for everyone who is not on the other site, but I'm not rewriting the whole thread. Here are my thoughts on the state of the public NHL xG models.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...
Reposted by Aaron K
Lots of good discussion on rush chances in hockey the past few weeks from @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social and @hockeyviz.com . Thought I'd throw my hat in the ring with some more detailed data, albeit, not NHL. So, a rush breakdown from the detailed data that I do have in women's college hockey.
January 2, 2026 at 3:13 PM
Lots of good discussion on rush chances in hockey the past few weeks from @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social and @hockeyviz.com . Thought I'd throw my hat in the ring with some more detailed data, albeit, not NHL. So, a rush breakdown from the detailed data that I do have in women's college hockey.
Reposted by Aaron K
January 2, 2026 at 2:39 PM
Most pbp derived rush timing is several seconds longer than actual rush timing, more evidence some kind of continuous variable stretching 10 seconds or so might be a better proxy for rush chances. Not sure how to deal with the relatively large number of rush chances that are 21+ seconds by pbp
January 2, 2026 at 3:06 PM
Most pbp derived rush timing is several seconds longer than actual rush timing, more evidence some kind of continuous variable stretching 10 seconds or so might be a better proxy for rush chances. Not sure how to deal with the relatively large number of rush chances that are 21+ seconds by pbp
Not surprisingly, special teams look very different. Power play goals mostly come from being set up in the zone and shorthanded goals are mostly scored off the rush
January 2, 2026 at 2:56 PM
Not surprisingly, special teams look very different. Power play goals mostly come from being set up in the zone and shorthanded goals are mostly scored off the rush
Not sure how to square this: roughly 35% of 5v5 goals scored are within 4 seconds of a zone entry, according to the EDGE animations, and it's pretty consistent each season over the past two and a half seasons
December 31, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Not sure how to square this: roughly 35% of 5v5 goals scored are within 4 seconds of a zone entry, according to the EDGE animations, and it's pretty consistent each season over the past two and a half seasons
Reposted by Aaron K
The Olympic hockey roster argument that makes my eyes glaze over more than any other is "you need players to play a bottom-six and fourth-line role."
No you don't.
You literally don't.
No you don't.
You literally don't.
December 30, 2025 at 10:14 PM
The Olympic hockey roster argument that makes my eyes glaze over more than any other is "you need players to play a bottom-six and fourth-line role."
No you don't.
You literally don't.
No you don't.
You literally don't.
Related: when did defensemen start defending rushes more by skating with the attack instead of skating backwards?
Speaking of defense, I forgot to mention in my initial thread, but I also wondered if more mobile defensemen are doing a better job of countering forwards. I think the effects from that would show up sooner though. It's strange how many trends change sharply in the past 2-3 seasons (rebounds too)
December 30, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Related: when did defensemen start defending rushes more by skating with the attack instead of skating backwards?
Error in the shot outcome chart previously affecting 0 second shots. Rush shots follow a similar pattern so far this season, though a little noisier second to second. But this raises a question for me: except for shots concurrent with an out of zone event, why aren't rush shots dangerous?
December 30, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Error in the shot outcome chart previously affecting 0 second shots. Rush shots follow a similar pattern so far this season, though a little noisier second to second. But this raises a question for me: except for shots concurrent with an out of zone event, why aren't rush shots dangerous?
Work in progress: looking at "rush" fenwick distribution by seconds since the out of zone event, up to 20 seconds. 20 seconds is too long, but shots exhibit the "rush" distribution up to about 7 seconds, and to a lesser degree almost to 10 seconds. Shot outcomes follow a similar pattern
December 29, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Work in progress: looking at "rush" fenwick distribution by seconds since the out of zone event, up to 20 seconds. 20 seconds is too long, but shots exhibit the "rush" distribution up to about 7 seconds, and to a lesser degree almost to 10 seconds. Shot outcomes follow a similar pattern