@evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com can you run a query for me real quick? What is the largest gap in GSAx between teams in one game on record. Where does tonight's NJD-NYI match land?
January 7, 2026 at 3:20 AM
@evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com can you run a query for me real quick? What is the largest gap in GSAx between teams in one game on record. Where does tonight's NJD-NYI match land?
Apologies for everyone who is not on the other site, but I'm not rewriting the whole thread. Here are my thoughts on the state of the public NHL xG models.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...
Thread by @CJTDevil on Thread Reader App
@CJTDevil: Okay so I've talked to several of the modelers about this and I want to just give a sort of public report for posterity on the state of the public xG models and the NHL shot...
threadreaderapp.com
January 4, 2026 at 7:35 PM
Apologies for everyone who is not on the other site, but I'm not rewriting the whole thread. Here are my thoughts on the state of the public NHL xG models.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...
threadreaderapp.com/thread/20078...
Decided to look more at this and these graphs are using @evolving-hockey.com's xG (because they have an excellent query tool that makes it easy).
So, while new shot designations are relevant, I think this graph screams that the true culprit was the warped xG fabric of the chip tracking.
So, while new shot designations are relevant, I think this graph screams that the true culprit was the warped xG fabric of the chip tracking.
January 4, 2026 at 6:08 PM
Decided to look more at this and these graphs are using @evolving-hockey.com's xG (because they have an excellent query tool that makes it easy).
So, while new shot designations are relevant, I think this graph screams that the true culprit was the warped xG fabric of the chip tracking.
So, while new shot designations are relevant, I think this graph screams that the true culprit was the warped xG fabric of the chip tracking.
Reposted by CJ Turtoro
Most pbp derived rush timing is several seconds longer than actual rush timing, more evidence some kind of continuous variable stretching 10 seconds or so might be a better proxy for rush chances. Not sure how to deal with the relatively large number of rush chances that are 21+ seconds by pbp
January 2, 2026 at 3:06 PM
Most pbp derived rush timing is several seconds longer than actual rush timing, more evidence some kind of continuous variable stretching 10 seconds or so might be a better proxy for rush chances. Not sure how to deal with the relatively large number of rush chances that are 21+ seconds by pbp
Reposted by CJ Turtoro
Gonna promote my own thing here: open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
A Brief History of NHL Play-by-Play Data
Or, What I Learned About the RTSS by Writing My Own NHL Play-by-Play Scraper
open.substack.com
January 2, 2026 at 5:42 AM
Gonna promote my own thing here: open.substack.com/pub/puckover...
Posted on the other site, but since I think these folks are more active here, probably worth cross-posting.
A lot of xG models are kinda busted rn. Almost every team is shooting under expected.
This is @evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com, @moneypuck.bsky.social, and @topdownhockey.bsky.social
A lot of xG models are kinda busted rn. Almost every team is shooting under expected.
This is @evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com, @moneypuck.bsky.social, and @topdownhockey.bsky.social
January 2, 2026 at 4:42 AM
Posted on the other site, but since I think these folks are more active here, probably worth cross-posting.
A lot of xG models are kinda busted rn. Almost every team is shooting under expected.
This is @evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com, @moneypuck.bsky.social, and @topdownhockey.bsky.social
A lot of xG models are kinda busted rn. Almost every team is shooting under expected.
This is @evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com, @moneypuck.bsky.social, and @topdownhockey.bsky.social
F*** it
13F/5D
F1: Noesen-Hischier-Tatar
F2: Sprong-Glass-Bratt
F3: Tatar-Mercer-Meier
F4: Cotter-Dowling-Haula
FO: Meier-Hischier-Bratt
FD: Haula-Lazar-Bastian
D1: Hughes-Pesce
D2: Kovacevic-Dumoulin
DD: Dillon-Pesce
DO: Hughes-Kovacevic
13F/5D
F1: Noesen-Hischier-Tatar
F2: Sprong-Glass-Bratt
F3: Tatar-Mercer-Meier
F4: Cotter-Dowling-Haula
FO: Meier-Hischier-Bratt
FD: Haula-Lazar-Bastian
D1: Hughes-Pesce
D2: Kovacevic-Dumoulin
DD: Dillon-Pesce
DO: Hughes-Kovacevic
a man in a suit and tie with a headset says let me cook
ALT: a man in a suit and tie with a headset says let me cook
media.tenor.com
March 26, 2025 at 9:50 PM
F*** it
13F/5D
F1: Noesen-Hischier-Tatar
F2: Sprong-Glass-Bratt
F3: Tatar-Mercer-Meier
F4: Cotter-Dowling-Haula
FO: Meier-Hischier-Bratt
FD: Haula-Lazar-Bastian
D1: Hughes-Pesce
D2: Kovacevic-Dumoulin
DD: Dillon-Pesce
DO: Hughes-Kovacevic
13F/5D
F1: Noesen-Hischier-Tatar
F2: Sprong-Glass-Bratt
F3: Tatar-Mercer-Meier
F4: Cotter-Dowling-Haula
FO: Meier-Hischier-Bratt
FD: Haula-Lazar-Bastian
D1: Hughes-Pesce
D2: Kovacevic-Dumoulin
DD: Dillon-Pesce
DO: Hughes-Kovacevic
Keefe is giving Markstrom a big vote of confidence here. He's saying "You're our guy, and we know you'll come through" because if he doesn't Keefe is gonna deservedly face questions about why he went consecutive games with a goalie performing dramatically worse than his backup.
March 26, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Keefe is giving Markstrom a big vote of confidence here. He's saying "You're our guy, and we know you'll come through" because if he doesn't Keefe is gonna deservedly face questions about why he went consecutive games with a goalie performing dramatically worse than his backup.
NJ finishes with 1 point out of a possible 6 in a homestand against teams below us in the standings.
March 25, 2025 at 2:27 AM
NJ finishes with 1 point out of a possible 6 in a homestand against teams below us in the standings.
Jesper with some FILTHY mits.
March 25, 2025 at 2:23 AM
Jesper with some FILTHY mits.
Bright side: Keefe finally can't put Jack Hughes in the shootout
March 25, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Bright side: Keefe finally can't put Jack Hughes in the shootout
Keep Mercer off the ice for the rest of this overtime.
March 25, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Keep Mercer off the ice for the rest of this overtime.
"Not much Markstrom can do"? PK. He was on top of the puck.
March 25, 2025 at 2:10 AM
"Not much Markstrom can do"? PK. He was on top of the puck.
Over the past two months, Noesen has the 6th worst goals scored above expected in the NHL (1 goal on 6.8 xGs)
Insanely, Auston Matthews (7 goals on 14 xGs) is 3rd worst.
Insanely, Auston Matthews (7 goals on 14 xGs) is 3rd worst.
March 25, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Over the past two months, Noesen has the 6th worst goals scored above expected in the NHL (1 goal on 6.8 xGs)
Insanely, Auston Matthews (7 goals on 14 xGs) is 3rd worst.
Insanely, Auston Matthews (7 goals on 14 xGs) is 3rd worst.
ERIK HAULA IS HEATING UP
March 25, 2025 at 1:54 AM
ERIK HAULA IS HEATING UP
Devils have been insanely lucky tonight tbh. Canucks have hit two posts, broke two sticks on one powerplay, Devils have gotten a couple lucky bounces. You replay this exact game, they may lose 4-1. But hockey gonna hockey -- we've had plenty of these go the other way the last two seasons.
March 25, 2025 at 1:50 AM
Devils have been insanely lucky tonight tbh. Canucks have hit two posts, broke two sticks on one powerplay, Devils have gotten a couple lucky bounces. You replay this exact game, they may lose 4-1. But hockey gonna hockey -- we've had plenty of these go the other way the last two seasons.
Devils deserved that. They've been leaving the slot wide open all night long.
March 25, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Devils deserved that. They've been leaving the slot wide open all night long.
Timo think's March is an instruction.
March 25, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Timo think's March is an instruction.
Timo absolutely BRINGING it tonight.
March 25, 2025 at 1:47 AM
Timo absolutely BRINGING it tonight.
The Glass-Bratt duo having their first rough xG% game. I don't think they've been conspicuously bad -- Bratt's had a few good moments too. Raty-Sherwood-O'Connor should not be giving them the business like they have been. If they can bring it in the 3rd, that'll help tremendously.
March 25, 2025 at 1:30 AM
The Glass-Bratt duo having their first rough xG% game. I don't think they've been conspicuously bad -- Bratt's had a few good moments too. Raty-Sherwood-O'Connor should not be giving them the business like they have been. If they can bring it in the 3rd, that'll help tremendously.
Oooo that was pretty!
March 25, 2025 at 12:55 AM
Oooo that was pretty!
I want Justin Dowling to be better. I feel like he does all the right things, but just doesn't have the horsepower he needs to make the impact he should.
March 25, 2025 at 12:17 AM
I want Justin Dowling to be better. I feel like he does all the right things, but just doesn't have the horsepower he needs to make the impact he should.