Keefe is giving Markstrom a big vote of confidence here. He's saying "You're our guy, and we know you'll come through" because if he doesn't Keefe is gonna deservedly face questions about why he went consecutive games with a goalie performing dramatically worse than his backup.
March 26, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Keefe is giving Markstrom a big vote of confidence here. He's saying "You're our guy, and we know you'll come through" because if he doesn't Keefe is gonna deservedly face questions about why he went consecutive games with a goalie performing dramatically worse than his backup.
Also playing 17+ minutes a night and the most PP time since his rookie season. At 5v5, his point rate is high for him but actually down from his NYR games this season.
March 25, 2025 at 1:40 AM
Also playing 17+ minutes a night and the most PP time since his rookie season. At 5v5, his point rate is high for him but actually down from his NYR games this season.
I get playing Timo and Nico together in order to have a true top line talent on our top line, but it still feels like Timo's skills fit most naturally along Mercer who has simply never found out how to contribute without a driver.
March 24, 2025 at 11:57 PM
I get playing Timo and Nico together in order to have a true top line talent on our top line, but it still feels like Timo's skills fit most naturally along Mercer who has simply never found out how to contribute without a driver.
FWIW ... I was right about this. Not that that's any consolation lol
March 21, 2025 at 2:07 AM
FWIW ... I was right about this. Not that that's any consolation lol
According to @evolving-hockey.com's numbers, among skaters with 200+ minutes played this season, Simon Nemec is the least valuable NHLer in BOTH GAR and xGAR.
A frankly unfathomable Sophomore slump for one of the best young players in the NHL last season.
A frankly unfathomable Sophomore slump for one of the best young players in the NHL last season.
March 16, 2025 at 1:59 PM
According to @evolving-hockey.com's numbers, among skaters with 200+ minutes played this season, Simon Nemec is the least valuable NHLer in BOTH GAR and xGAR.
A frankly unfathomable Sophomore slump for one of the best young players in the NHL last season.
A frankly unfathomable Sophomore slump for one of the best young players in the NHL last season.
Kovacevic was just so solid. Bratt went beast move. And the Cody Glass Experience ™️ lives for another day!
March 12, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Kovacevic was just so solid. Bratt went beast move. And the Cody Glass Experience ™️ lives for another day!
A lot of guys played well tonight, but I think we all know who the true MVP of this game was.
March 12, 2025 at 1:30 AM
A lot of guys played well tonight, but I think we all know who the true MVP of this game was.
Just try to survive the Luke Hughes shifts so that true offensive juggernauts Brian Dumoulin and Jonathan Kovacevic can get to work
March 12, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Just try to survive the Luke Hughes shifts so that true offensive juggernauts Brian Dumoulin and Jonathan Kovacevic can get to work
15% net swing in playoff probability on the line tonight. No pressure.
March 11, 2025 at 11:15 PM
15% net swing in playoff probability on the line tonight. No pressure.
Glanced at @evolving-hockey.com's RAPM statistics for Forwards and Defensemen to examine their year-over-year predictivity of one another via correlation and via t-value in multiple linear regression model by year just to see if there have been any notable changes.
There haven't, really.
There haven't, really.
February 14, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Glanced at @evolving-hockey.com's RAPM statistics for Forwards and Defensemen to examine their year-over-year predictivity of one another via correlation and via t-value in multiple linear regression model by year just to see if there have been any notable changes.
There haven't, really.
There haven't, really.
And how is he away from MacKinnon? This is over the last 3 years. They've spent ~1000 minutes apart and ~2500 together.
Nate doesn't seem to notice if Mikko is there or not.
Mikko however, becomes a net negative.
Yeesh.
Nate doesn't seem to notice if Mikko is there or not.
Mikko however, becomes a net negative.
Yeesh.
January 25, 2025 at 4:23 PM
And how is he away from MacKinnon? This is over the last 3 years. They've spent ~1000 minutes apart and ~2500 together.
Nate doesn't seem to notice if Mikko is there or not.
Mikko however, becomes a net negative.
Yeesh.
Nate doesn't seem to notice if Mikko is there or not.
Mikko however, becomes a net negative.
Yeesh.
It's all about production. In fact, if you look at the point rates they're the exact inverse of the 5v5 shot impact rates. But in the end, that skill is hard to come be and it's extremely valuable.
Which is why Carolina is giving up more to get him.
Which is why Carolina is giving up more to get him.
January 25, 2025 at 4:23 PM
It's all about production. In fact, if you look at the point rates they're the exact inverse of the 5v5 shot impact rates. But in the end, that skill is hard to come be and it's extremely valuable.
Which is why Carolina is giving up more to get him.
Which is why Carolina is giving up more to get him.
And now from @theathletic.bsky.social (with blanks filled in by @hockeystatcards.com).
Now we see the most clear description of what Carolina is upgrading.
Rantanen's point production is a scarce and expensive skill that launches him into rare company value-wise.
CAR 📈📈
Now we see the most clear description of what Carolina is upgrading.
Rantanen's point production is a scarce and expensive skill that launches him into rare company value-wise.
CAR 📈📈
January 25, 2025 at 4:23 PM
And now from @theathletic.bsky.social (with blanks filled in by @hockeystatcards.com).
Now we see the most clear description of what Carolina is upgrading.
Rantanen's point production is a scarce and expensive skill that launches him into rare company value-wise.
CAR 📈📈
Now we see the most clear description of what Carolina is upgrading.
Rantanen's point production is a scarce and expensive skill that launches him into rare company value-wise.
CAR 📈📈
On @evolving-hockey.com, however, there's a clear star and it's Rantanen. Grades out as an offensive dynamo and clear overall upgrade on Necas.
Similar to HVs viz, Drury also grades out as a clearly useful defensive 5v5 piece.
2 3rd liners, one 1L and one star. CAR📈
Similar to HVs viz, Drury also grades out as a clearly useful defensive 5v5 piece.
2 3rd liners, one 1L and one star. CAR📈
January 25, 2025 at 4:23 PM
On @evolving-hockey.com, however, there's a clear star and it's Rantanen. Grades out as an offensive dynamo and clear overall upgrade on Necas.
Similar to HVs viz, Drury also grades out as a clearly useful defensive 5v5 piece.
2 3rd liners, one 1L and one star. CAR📈
Similar to HVs viz, Drury also grades out as a clearly useful defensive 5v5 piece.
2 3rd liners, one 1L and one star. CAR📈
Copied from my post at The Bad Place
We'll start with @hockeyviz.com
Interestingly, Necas/Rantanen are minus play-drivers while Hall/Drury are positive.
The value gap is all from production (finishing/setting) and penalty±.
In all. It's two back-end top-liners and two middle-6ers. Even trade.
We'll start with @hockeyviz.com
Interestingly, Necas/Rantanen are minus play-drivers while Hall/Drury are positive.
The value gap is all from production (finishing/setting) and penalty±.
In all. It's two back-end top-liners and two middle-6ers. Even trade.
January 25, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Copied from my post at The Bad Place
We'll start with @hockeyviz.com
Interestingly, Necas/Rantanen are minus play-drivers while Hall/Drury are positive.
The value gap is all from production (finishing/setting) and penalty±.
In all. It's two back-end top-liners and two middle-6ers. Even trade.
We'll start with @hockeyviz.com
Interestingly, Necas/Rantanen are minus play-drivers while Hall/Drury are positive.
The value gap is all from production (finishing/setting) and penalty±.
In all. It's two back-end top-liners and two middle-6ers. Even trade.
Devils pretty much in the dead center of the prospect pool rankings which is good for a team with as many good young NHLers as they have.
However, the pool is led by 3 stud defencemen and VERY little forward talent. Here is the lukewarm writeup for their top forward prospect.
However, the pool is led by 3 stud defencemen and VERY little forward talent. Here is the lukewarm writeup for their top forward prospect.
January 23, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Devils pretty much in the dead center of the prospect pool rankings which is good for a team with as many good young NHLers as they have.
However, the pool is led by 3 stud defencemen and VERY little forward talent. Here is the lukewarm writeup for their top forward prospect.
However, the pool is led by 3 stud defencemen and VERY little forward talent. Here is the lukewarm writeup for their top forward prospect.
Combine the offensive "little things" like this with his already well-established positive defensive impacts (below) and it's not hard to see why Keefe may view this as a low-risk shot worth taking.
January 22, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Combine the offensive "little things" like this with his already well-established positive defensive impacts (below) and it's not hard to see why Keefe may view this as a low-risk shot worth taking.
But you see the two major things Keefe loves about his game: 1) hustling deep on the forecheck which impacted the PHI and FLA goals, and 2) crashing the net which he did against FLA and OTT.
And stats support this as he has been one of the most active forecheckers in the league the last two years.
And stats support this as he has been one of the most active forecheckers in the league the last two years.
January 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
But you see the two major things Keefe loves about his game: 1) hustling deep on the forecheck which impacted the PHI and FLA goals, and 2) crashing the net which he did against FLA and OTT.
And stats support this as he has been one of the most active forecheckers in the league the last two years.
And stats support this as he has been one of the most active forecheckers in the league the last two years.
Keefe really likes what he's seen from Bastian lately, mentioning that he's been on the ice for 3 of the 4 goals we've scored at 5v5 in that time (his overall numbers support that praise, though it gets less impressive if you use any more than 4 games)
Regardless I wanted to look at those goals.
Regardless I wanted to look at those goals.
January 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Keefe really likes what he's seen from Bastian lately, mentioning that he's been on the ice for 3 of the 4 goals we've scored at 5v5 in that time (his overall numbers support that praise, though it gets less impressive if you use any more than 4 games)
Regardless I wanted to look at those goals.
Regardless I wanted to look at those goals.
This is the list of the top 25 players-season in defensive value for a defenceman in the analytics era (2007-current)
Siegenthaler-Kovacevic are both already on this list.
There are 37 games left.
Siegenthaler-Kovacevic are both already on this list.
There are 37 games left.
January 12, 2025 at 1:32 PM
This is the list of the top 25 players-season in defensive value for a defenceman in the analytics era (2007-current)
Siegenthaler-Kovacevic are both already on this list.
There are 37 games left.
Siegenthaler-Kovacevic are both already on this list.
There are 37 games left.
Hamilton and Dillon were dominant tonight. Dillon's numbers, in particular, were wild. 7-0 in high-danger chances, 90 xG%, and outscored Seattle 2-0 in his shifts.
When he was off the ice, HDs were 5-8, NJ's xG% was 46, and goals were 1-1.
The forwards got the love, but that pair was HUGE tonight.
When he was off the ice, HDs were 5-8, NJ's xG% was 46, and goals were 1-1.
The forwards got the love, but that pair was HUGE tonight.
December 7, 2024 at 3:01 AM
Hamilton and Dillon were dominant tonight. Dillon's numbers, in particular, were wild. 7-0 in high-danger chances, 90 xG%, and outscored Seattle 2-0 in his shifts.
When he was off the ice, HDs were 5-8, NJ's xG% was 46, and goals were 1-1.
The forwards got the love, but that pair was HUGE tonight.
When he was off the ice, HDs were 5-8, NJ's xG% was 46, and goals were 1-1.
The forwards got the love, but that pair was HUGE tonight.
This is team +/- ratings according to @evolving-hockey.com's RAPM models in terms of shot quantity (x-axis) vs shot quality (y-axis).
November 27, 2024 at 1:25 PM
This is team +/- ratings according to @evolving-hockey.com's RAPM models in terms of shot quantity (x-axis) vs shot quality (y-axis).
Carolina and Nashville were probably the two best 60-minute efforts from NJ since 2022-23 and it was against a very good and (IMO) very bad team. It's good to show we can win some blowouts and some right ones.
This one was utter domination. With a 5-min PK and may natural hat trick to boot.
This one was utter domination. With a 5-min PK and may natural hat trick to boot.
November 26, 2024 at 3:34 AM
Carolina and Nashville were probably the two best 60-minute efforts from NJ since 2022-23 and it was against a very good and (IMO) very bad team. It's good to show we can win some blowouts and some right ones.
This one was utter domination. With a 5-min PK and may natural hat trick to boot.
This one was utter domination. With a 5-min PK and may natural hat trick to boot.
Devils play the Predators tonight who, if current ratios held (they won't) they would have the worst GF% of any team in the analytics era.
This exaggerates their struggles a bit though -- they're getting PDO'd into oblivion at 5v5.
This exaggerates their struggles a bit though -- they're getting PDO'd into oblivion at 5v5.
November 25, 2024 at 4:12 PM
Devils play the Predators tonight who, if current ratios held (they won't) they would have the worst GF% of any team in the analytics era.
This exaggerates their struggles a bit though -- they're getting PDO'd into oblivion at 5v5.
This exaggerates their struggles a bit though -- they're getting PDO'd into oblivion at 5v5.