Aaron K
@ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social
Stars fan, data fan, handle to the tune of "Radio Free Europe"
He/him
https://puckovertheglass.substack.com/
He/him
https://puckovertheglass.substack.com/
He’s apparently been dealing with an injury the past couple of weeks. He wasn’t great before then but he really fell off a cliff around game 9 or 10 (chart from before montreal game)
November 15, 2025 at 3:15 PM
He’s apparently been dealing with an injury the past couple of weeks. He wasn’t great before then but he really fell off a cliff around game 9 or 10 (chart from before montreal game)
There might not have been a jump in shooting/save %, but there was a pretty major change in locations in 23-24 (charts are from last December). Also, fenwick shooting % and regular shooting % had been climbing together until 22-23, but fSh% dropped after that while Sh% keeps increasing
November 3, 2025 at 10:16 PM
There might not have been a jump in shooting/save %, but there was a pretty major change in locations in 23-24 (charts are from last December). Also, fenwick shooting % and regular shooting % had been climbing together until 22-23, but fSh% dropped after that while Sh% keeps increasing
This might also interest you, in 23-24 the NHL started including shots blocked by teammates or "other" increasing raw blocks by about 0.3/60 at 5v5
November 3, 2025 at 6:32 PM
This might also interest you, in 23-24 the NHL started including shots blocked by teammates or "other" increasing raw blocks by about 0.3/60 at 5v5
I think it's mostly shots being recorded as misses, the changes in 5v5 on/60 and miss/60 in 22-23 and 23-24 almost perfectly offset, before that the year-to-year change mostly moved together. 24-25 they don't offset as nicely, but still move in opposite directions. This year they're back together
November 3, 2025 at 6:24 PM
I think it's mostly shots being recorded as misses, the changes in 5v5 on/60 and miss/60 in 22-23 and 23-24 almost perfectly offset, before that the year-to-year change mostly moved together. 24-25 they don't offset as nicely, but still move in opposite directions. This year they're back together
Presumably, like most other NHL record keeping changes in the last three years, this has something to do with the integration of tracking chips, though player tracking began during the 2019-20 season, evidenced by a spike in discrepancies between shift report TOI and API TOI values
September 19, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Presumably, like most other NHL record keeping changes in the last three years, this has something to do with the integration of tracking chips, though player tracking began during the 2019-20 season, evidenced by a spike in discrepancies between shift report TOI and API TOI values
Short/no rest OTF shifts (OTF end/beginning, 10 seconds or less on the bench with no stoppage before resuming play) are down even more: ~15% of the pre 2021-22 rate
September 19, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Short/no rest OTF shifts (OTF end/beginning, 10 seconds or less on the bench with no stoppage before resuming play) are down even more: ~15% of the pre 2021-22 rate
It appears the NHL has spent some time standardizing its shift reports over the past few seasons. Short OTF shifts (10 seconds or less starting and ending OTF without a stoppage in between) have steadily dropped over each of the last three seasons to just over 50% of the previous rate
September 19, 2025 at 7:01 PM
It appears the NHL has spent some time standardizing its shift reports over the past few seasons. Short OTF shifts (10 seconds or less starting and ending OTF without a stoppage in between) have steadily dropped over each of the last three seasons to just over 50% of the previous rate
Another way of looking at this compared to a random other pending UFA winger (QoT not accounted for)
May 27, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Another way of looking at this compared to a random other pending UFA winger (QoT not accounted for)
That's just the distribution of shots in the zone, however, what about overall volume? Here we see that Marner often sees his on ice rates fall more than league average. Matthew previously maintained his regular season rate better than league average, but the past 5 seasons have overall been rough
May 21, 2025 at 10:16 PM
That's just the distribution of shots in the zone, however, what about overall volume? Here we see that Marner often sees his on ice rates fall more than league average. Matthew previously maintained his regular season rate better than league average, but the past 5 seasons have overall been rough
Digging even deeper, while there have been times Matthews and Marner have been shut down, 2021 in particular, they have been better at generating mid-range shots than the rest of the Leafs, who have also struggled to get close to the opposing net, often settling for shots from distance
May 21, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Digging even deeper, while there have been times Matthews and Marner have been shut down, 2021 in particular, they have been better at generating mid-range shots than the rest of the Leafs, who have also struggled to get close to the opposing net, often settling for shots from distance
Looking Matthews and Marner's regular season to playoff change compared to both non-Toronto playoff teams and Toronto's distribution when neither is on the ice shows that while Matthews and Marner have struggled more than most teams do, so has the rest of Toronto's roster
May 21, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Looking Matthews and Marner's regular season to playoff change compared to both non-Toronto playoff teams and Toronto's distribution when neither is on the ice shows that while Matthews and Marner have struggled more than most teams do, so has the rest of Toronto's roster
Are Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner too "soft" for the playoffs? Just based on the distribution of Toronto's unblocked shots when they're on the ice, it would appear so, as both players have consistently had more trouble getting to the dangerous areas than they do in the regular season
May 21, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Are Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner too "soft" for the playoffs? Just based on the distribution of Toronto's unblocked shots when they're on the ice, it would appear so, as both players have consistently had more trouble getting to the dangerous areas than they do in the regular season
Here you go! Backhands behave as I would expect, but some interesting stuff with slap shots
May 12, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Here you go! Backhands behave as I would expect, but some interesting stuff with slap shots
The pattern generally holds for 5-on-5, but on the power play slap shots exhibit a slightly different behavior, tending towards the right (typically glove) side of the goalie.
May 12, 2025 at 4:43 PM
The pattern generally holds for 5-on-5, but on the power play slap shots exhibit a slightly different behavior, tending towards the right (typically glove) side of the goalie.
The NHL's API includes more detail about shots than ever before, including detail about how shots missed the net.
May 12, 2025 at 4:43 PM
The NHL's API includes more detail about shots than ever before, including detail about how shots missed the net.
Downright formal compared to traditional prime minister garb
May 3, 2025 at 12:46 AM
Downright formal compared to traditional prime minister garb
All penalty types have been declining, but "physical" penalties (boarding, charging, etc) have declined the most. I didn't specifically look at non-offsetting penalties, but excluding roughing calls (panel 3) should remove most offsetting calls
March 18, 2025 at 12:51 PM
All penalty types have been declining, but "physical" penalties (boarding, charging, etc) have declined the most. I didn't specifically look at non-offsetting penalties, but excluding roughing calls (panel 3) should remove most offsetting calls
Jake Oettinger's just going through his usual game 60-70 slump
March 17, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Jake Oettinger's just going through his usual game 60-70 slump
They do this every year too, lol
March 6, 2025 at 11:02 PM
They do this every year too, lol
Interestingly, in-zone offense and defense are fairly uncorrelated with both each other and with share of OZ time to DZ time, supporting the idea that offense, defense and transition abilities are fairly independent of each other 6/7
March 6, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Interestingly, in-zone offense and defense are fairly uncorrelated with both each other and with share of OZ time to DZ time, supporting the idea that offense, defense and transition abilities are fairly independent of each other 6/7
If we look at in-zone corsi vs in-zone xG rates, Philadelphia and Montreal stand out as two teams that generate high quality chances. Despite their reputation as a volume team, Carolina's quality of chances is in line with its volume 5/7
March 6, 2025 at 3:10 PM
If we look at in-zone corsi vs in-zone xG rates, Philadelphia and Montreal stand out as two teams that generate high quality chances. Despite their reputation as a volume team, Carolina's quality of chances is in line with its volume 5/7