Ben Csiernik
@bcsiernik.bsky.social
Sport scientist and PhD student @ Ontario Tech University. Trying to better understand how goals get scored and how to stop them. Goalie coach.
https://sites.google.com/view/bencsiernik/home
https://sites.google.com/view/bencsiernik/home
This past Sunday, team USA won the 2026 IIHF U18 Women’s World Championship 2-0 over Team Canada. A really competitive game from two teams filled with players with bright hockey futures. Here is the game report and game probabilities based on my modelling work in women's hockey.
January 23, 2026 at 4:22 PM
This past Sunday, team USA won the 2026 IIHF U18 Women’s World Championship 2-0 over Team Canada. A really competitive game from two teams filled with players with bright hockey futures. Here is the game report and game probabilities based on my modelling work in women's hockey.
An article looking at rush offence using women's Canadian University is up on my website. Had a lot of fun looking at rush offence in response to the discussion in the NHL.
While not directly applicable to the NHL tactically, I think there's important overlaps.
sites.google.com/view/bencsie...
While not directly applicable to the NHL tactically, I think there's important overlaps.
sites.google.com/view/bencsie...
January 6, 2026 at 5:52 PM
An article looking at rush offence using women's Canadian University is up on my website. Had a lot of fun looking at rush offence in response to the discussion in the NHL.
While not directly applicable to the NHL tactically, I think there's important overlaps.
sites.google.com/view/bencsie...
While not directly applicable to the NHL tactically, I think there's important overlaps.
sites.google.com/view/bencsie...
Lots of good discussion on rush chances in hockey the past few weeks from @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social and @hockeyviz.com . Thought I'd throw my hat in the ring with some more detailed data, albeit, not NHL. So, a rush breakdown from the detailed data that I do have in women's college hockey.
January 2, 2026 at 3:13 PM
Lots of good discussion on rush chances in hockey the past few weeks from @ladyotreesyrup.bsky.social and @hockeyviz.com . Thought I'd throw my hat in the ring with some more detailed data, albeit, not NHL. So, a rush breakdown from the detailed data that I do have in women's college hockey.
New year means the second half of the OUA women's hockey season is about to start and I am caught up on all 101 games from the first half with 10 thousand + shot attempts watched.
Looks like scoring has stabilized around expected, and team shooting profiles look very different.
Looks like scoring has stabilized around expected, and team shooting profiles look very different.
January 1, 2026 at 6:25 PM
New year means the second half of the OUA women's hockey season is about to start and I am caught up on all 101 games from the first half with 10 thousand + shot attempts watched.
Looks like scoring has stabilized around expected, and team shooting profiles look very different.
Looks like scoring has stabilized around expected, and team shooting profiles look very different.
Reposted by Ben Csiernik
The Olympic hockey roster argument that makes my eyes glaze over more than any other is "you need players to play a bottom-six and fourth-line role."
No you don't.
You literally don't.
No you don't.
You literally don't.
December 30, 2025 at 10:14 PM
The Olympic hockey roster argument that makes my eyes glaze over more than any other is "you need players to play a bottom-six and fourth-line role."
No you don't.
You literally don't.
No you don't.
You literally don't.
Expected goal value distributions of goals and all unblocked shot attempts.
Median expected goal value of a shot resulting in a goal is 0.12 compared with a median of 0.02 for all unblocked shots.
Median expected goal value of a shot resulting in a goal is 0.12 compared with a median of 0.02 for all unblocked shots.
December 20, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Expected goal value distributions of goals and all unblocked shot attempts.
Median expected goal value of a shot resulting in a goal is 0.12 compared with a median of 0.02 for all unblocked shots.
Median expected goal value of a shot resulting in a goal is 0.12 compared with a median of 0.02 for all unblocked shots.
Expected goals and actual Goals distributions after 83 tracked OUA womens hockey games.
A lot of shutouts in the first half of the season, goalies rule.
A lot of shutouts in the first half of the season, goalies rule.
December 19, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Expected goals and actual Goals distributions after 83 tracked OUA womens hockey games.
A lot of shutouts in the first half of the season, goalies rule.
A lot of shutouts in the first half of the season, goalies rule.
Im a bit over a third into tracking this year’s OUA women’s hockey season and the expected goal model is doing pretty well. A really “fun” case of regression to the mean at this point.
December 12, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Im a bit over a third into tracking this year’s OUA women’s hockey season and the expected goal model is doing pretty well. A really “fun” case of regression to the mean at this point.
Canadian women’s university hockey model through 23 games and 1700 unblocked shot attempts.
Slow start for the offence, partly due to some bad luck, partly due to some great goaltending through the first two weeks.
Slow start for the offence, partly due to some bad luck, partly due to some great goaltending through the first two weeks.
October 24, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Canadian women’s university hockey model through 23 games and 1700 unblocked shot attempts.
Slow start for the offence, partly due to some bad luck, partly due to some great goaltending through the first two weeks.
Slow start for the offence, partly due to some bad luck, partly due to some great goaltending through the first two weeks.
Through my first five games tracked of my women’s college hockey model we have seen 24 goals on 23.55 expected goals so at this point I think I’m done collecting data because this is probably the peak.
October 6, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Through my first five games tracked of my women’s college hockey model we have seen 24 goals on 23.55 expected goals so at this point I think I’m done collecting data because this is probably the peak.
I gave an entire conference talk on why this is, inherently, a less than optimal approach to any powerplay, let alone a powerplay featuring William Nylander and Austin Matthews.
Rielly's making more of an effort to shoot now that he got his spot back on the top unit
September 24, 2025 at 1:27 AM
I gave an entire conference talk on why this is, inherently, a less than optimal approach to any powerplay, let alone a powerplay featuring William Nylander and Austin Matthews.
Given that the new school year is starting, I'm thrilled to share that I was selected as part of the final class of SHRC Vanier Scholars! This scholarship supports our work on trying to better understand what the best development pathway is for young hockey players.
September 2, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Given that the new school year is starting, I'm thrilled to share that I was selected as part of the final class of SHRC Vanier Scholars! This scholarship supports our work on trying to better understand what the best development pathway is for young hockey players.
Nik Ehlers is worth a lot more than this but teams don’t like the way he looks when he backchecks and I’m sure there’s also something about “grit”.
Nik Ehlers (6x8.5m with Carolina) is a tremendous generator and finisher of offence, especially at 5v5, average defensively, strongly impacts his team's penalty differential. An extremely team-friendly deal.
July 3, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Nik Ehlers is worth a lot more than this but teams don’t like the way he looks when he backchecks and I’m sure there’s also something about “grit”.
A little bit of science published on Canada Day.
July 1, 2025 at 12:58 PM
A little bit of science published on Canada Day.
Big summer Saturday over here where we’re drawing hockey practice drills for academic articles on team practice learning design.
Are 2 on 1s peer reviewed? Makes you think.
Are 2 on 1s peer reviewed? Makes you think.
June 28, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Big summer Saturday over here where we’re drawing hockey practice drills for academic articles on team practice learning design.
Are 2 on 1s peer reviewed? Makes you think.
Are 2 on 1s peer reviewed? Makes you think.
Reposted by Ben Csiernik
Even if Mitch Marner goes to free agency as seems likely, the biggest prize will be Nik Ehlers:
June 26, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Even if Mitch Marner goes to free agency as seems likely, the biggest prize will be Nik Ehlers:
I do all my work in R but have started with some Python things and oh boy does the tidyverse do an unbelievable amount of things simpler/easier/better than numpy and pandas.
June 9, 2025 at 6:32 PM
I do all my work in R but have started with some Python things and oh boy does the tidyverse do an unbelievable amount of things simpler/easier/better than numpy and pandas.
Any person with an expected goals model knows the feeling of having the game almost perfectly match the result.
A win for the numbers
A win for the numbers
NJ/NY Gotham FC: 1 (0.99 xG)
vs
Kansas City Current: 2 (2.02 xG)
#NJYvKC | #GothamFC | #KCBABY | #NWSL | 🤖⚽
vs
Kansas City Current: 2 (2.02 xG)
#NJYvKC | #GothamFC | #KCBABY | #NWSL | 🤖⚽
June 7, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Any person with an expected goals model knows the feeling of having the game almost perfectly match the result.
A win for the numbers
A win for the numbers
Had a ton of fun this past weekend sharing some of our research on goaltending, practice design, and team offensive tactics.
Bonus fun getting to speak about some of what I consider seminal work by @allthreezones.bsky.social and @hockeyviz.com
Bonus fun getting to speak about some of what I consider seminal work by @allthreezones.bsky.social and @hockeyviz.com
June 4, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Had a ton of fun this past weekend sharing some of our research on goaltending, practice design, and team offensive tactics.
Bonus fun getting to speak about some of what I consider seminal work by @allthreezones.bsky.social and @hockeyviz.com
Bonus fun getting to speak about some of what I consider seminal work by @allthreezones.bsky.social and @hockeyviz.com
I coach multiple children under 10 years old who are better skaters than I was when I played Collegiate hockey in the early/mid 2010s
This is super cool! But all I really want is for kids to love hockey and goaltending, and I am nervous every single day that they aren’t on that path.
This is super cool! But all I really want is for kids to love hockey and goaltending, and I am nervous every single day that they aren’t on that path.
I coach 5-6 year-olds in soccer and 7-8 year-olds in basketball in suburban Phoenix, and let me tell you, the games don't look like they did 30 years ago. The skill level is so extraordinarily high that kids who haven't started playing by 6 are almost too far behind to catch up.
May 19, 2025 at 8:11 PM
I coach multiple children under 10 years old who are better skaters than I was when I played Collegiate hockey in the early/mid 2010s
This is super cool! But all I really want is for kids to love hockey and goaltending, and I am nervous every single day that they aren’t on that path.
This is super cool! But all I really want is for kids to love hockey and goaltending, and I am nervous every single day that they aren’t on that path.
This is a perfect example of how to not play a 2 on 1 that supports a goalie.
By sliding over to the pass option, leafs gives Jones a direct line to the net. Causes Woll to get stuck in an awkward waiting cycle where it’s a mini breakaway with maybe still a pass. D needs to stay short post.
By sliding over to the pass option, leafs gives Jones a direct line to the net. Causes Woll to get stuck in an awkward waiting cycle where it’s a mini breakaway with maybe still a pass. D needs to stay short post.
May 19, 2025 at 12:50 AM
This is a perfect example of how to not play a 2 on 1 that supports a goalie.
By sliding over to the pass option, leafs gives Jones a direct line to the net. Causes Woll to get stuck in an awkward waiting cycle where it’s a mini breakaway with maybe still a pass. D needs to stay short post.
By sliding over to the pass option, leafs gives Jones a direct line to the net. Causes Woll to get stuck in an awkward waiting cycle where it’s a mini breakaway with maybe still a pass. D needs to stay short post.
As if there was ever a doubt. Dusty in here.
GOAL: Mark Scheifele. There it is. 1-0 Jets.
May 18, 2025 at 1:25 AM
As if there was ever a doubt. Dusty in here.
Hockey is so fascinating because it’s hard to look at Phillips’ career and say anything other than “yeah the puck doesn’t go in much”.
The USA is winning the race in letting their younger players rise
The USA is winning the race in letting their younger players rise
May 13, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Hockey is so fascinating because it’s hard to look at Phillips’ career and say anything other than “yeah the puck doesn’t go in much”.
The USA is winning the race in letting their younger players rise
The USA is winning the race in letting their younger players rise
Bishop's University is your 2025 #USport Women's Hockey National Champions! First tournament appearance, first title.
A very even game that saw momentum swings throughout. Score effects a big differentiator in the final expected goals as Waterloo made a late push down 1-0 in the third.
A very even game that saw momentum swings throughout. Score effects a big differentiator in the final expected goals as Waterloo made a late push down 1-0 in the third.
March 24, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Bishop's University is your 2025 #USport Women's Hockey National Champions! First tournament appearance, first title.
A very even game that saw momentum swings throughout. Score effects a big differentiator in the final expected goals as Waterloo made a late push down 1-0 in the third.
A very even game that saw momentum swings throughout. Score effects a big differentiator in the final expected goals as Waterloo made a late push down 1-0 in the third.