Kris-Stella Trump
@kstrump.bsky.social
Political scientist at Johns Hopkins University: democracy, inequality, political psychology, public opinion, behavioral everything. No relation. American by way of Estonia, Sweden, and England.
Pinned
Kris-Stella Trump
@kstrump.bsky.social
· Dec 12
When is it Fair to Tax the Rich? The Importance of Pro-Social Behavior - Kris-Stella Trump, 2024
Politicians, activists, and the rich themselves variously describe rich people as hard workers, greedy tax avoiders, generous philanthropists, and more. Occasio...
doi.org
New publication! When is it fair to tax the rich?
I ask what attributes of the rich (hard worker, charitable, from modest background, treats workers well, etc) affect support for taxing the rich. (1/2)
doi.org/10.1177/0010...
I ask what attributes of the rich (hard worker, charitable, from modest background, treats workers well, etc) affect support for taxing the rich. (1/2)
doi.org/10.1177/0010...
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
“Deciding to Win' also displays little awareness of what winning elections is for. There is an obvious reason why the Democratic Party ought not abandon its commitment to preventing the climate crisis," writes @davekarpf.bsky.social. Excellent piece. newrepublic.com/article/2023...
Why Centrist Democrats Keep Being Wrong About Elections
A new 60-page report insists the party is too radical. But the problem isn’t the party platform. The problem is the broader environment.
newrepublic.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:46 PM
“Deciding to Win' also displays little awareness of what winning elections is for. There is an obvious reason why the Democratic Party ought not abandon its commitment to preventing the climate crisis," writes @davekarpf.bsky.social. Excellent piece. newrepublic.com/article/2023...
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
A guy I used to work with was a tenured psych/CS professor as well as on an elite amateur crew team.
He said "you're never going to make learning easier, just like you're never going to make rowing easier."
I think about that a lot.
He said "you're never going to make learning easier, just like you're never going to make rowing easier."
I think about that a lot.
When people learn with ChatGPT instead of following their own searches, they end up knowing less, caring less, and producing worse advice, even when the facts are the same.
Friction is an essential ingredient for learning! Convenience makes us shallow.
academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Friction is an essential ingredient for learning! Convenience makes us shallow.
academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Experimental evidence of the effects of large language models versus web search on depth of learning
Abstract. The effects of using large language models (LLMs) versus traditional web search on depth of learning are explored. A theory is proposed that when
academic.oup.com
October 28, 2025 at 7:56 PM
A guy I used to work with was a tenured psych/CS professor as well as on an elite amateur crew team.
He said "you're never going to make learning easier, just like you're never going to make rowing easier."
I think about that a lot.
He said "you're never going to make learning easier, just like you're never going to make rowing easier."
I think about that a lot.
I need the “this is fine” mouse but with popcorn looking out the window at a different burning house.
Latest Polling by @YouGov
🟣 Reform 27%
🔵 Tory 17%
🔴 Labour 17%
💚 Green 16%
🟠 Lib Dem 15%
This is the LOWEST Labour
has ever polled with YouGov.
This is the HIGHEST @greenparty.org.uk has ever polled with YouGov.
4 parties within 2 points of each other for second place.
🟣 Reform 27%
🔵 Tory 17%
🔴 Labour 17%
💚 Green 16%
🟠 Lib Dem 15%
This is the LOWEST Labour
has ever polled with YouGov.
This is the HIGHEST @greenparty.org.uk has ever polled with YouGov.
4 parties within 2 points of each other for second place.
October 28, 2025 at 11:37 AM
I need the “this is fine” mouse but with popcorn looking out the window at a different burning house.
Here is a very niche sign of how far the US has fallen.
If you attend a political science conference today, you will hear scholars stumbling over how to introduce datasets that until last year were known as describing "wealthy industrialized democracies".
If you attend a political science conference today, you will hear scholars stumbling over how to introduce datasets that until last year were known as describing "wealthy industrialized democracies".
October 14, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Here is a very niche sign of how far the US has fallen.
If you attend a political science conference today, you will hear scholars stumbling over how to introduce datasets that until last year were known as describing "wealthy industrialized democracies".
If you attend a political science conference today, you will hear scholars stumbling over how to introduce datasets that until last year were known as describing "wealthy industrialized democracies".
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
Wow, wow, wow. This has always been legally possible but the law has virtually never been enforced — and now this is the SECOND case I've heard of in the last month (first involving a person with a green card) of a noncitizen being charged for failure to carry their papers.
NEWS: ICE gave a Rogers Park man a $130 ticket for not having his papers on him. They rounded him up last week and eventually let him go, but not without a fine that some critics say is un-American. Trump admin enforcing little-used law
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/10/13/i...
www.chicagotribune.com/2025/10/13/i...
ICE tickets Chicago man with legal residency $130 for not having his papers on him: ‘It’s not fair…I’m a resident’
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement fined Rueben Antonio Cruz $130 for not having his papers with him.
www.chicagotribune.com
October 13, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Wow, wow, wow. This has always been legally possible but the law has virtually never been enforced — and now this is the SECOND case I've heard of in the last month (first involving a person with a green card) of a noncitizen being charged for failure to carry their papers.
What a treat, in every sense of the word, to be in Munich for the #isiwealthconference2025 @isi-munich.bsky.social
October 10, 2025 at 1:07 PM
What a treat, in every sense of the word, to be in Munich for the #isiwealthconference2025 @isi-munich.bsky.social
“Portland‘s protest frogs are multiplying”
Things are happening at Portland's ICE facility tonight.
Read more of our protest coverage here: www.oregonlive.com/crime/2025/1...
Read more of our protest coverage here: www.oregonlive.com/crime/2025/1...
October 10, 2025 at 6:40 AM
“Portland‘s protest frogs are multiplying”
I laughed. But also, completely seriously, can anyone point me to things written on Duverger vs. recent polls out of the UK?
ARE YOU LISTENING MAURICE DUVERGER?? YOUR BOYS TOOK A HELL OF A BEATING
TONY DOWNS, CAN YOU HEAR ME? WHERE IS YOUR MEDIAN VOTER NOW???
TONY DOWNS, CAN YOU HEAR ME? WHERE IS YOUR MEDIAN VOTER NOW???
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 5-6 Oct.
Changes w/ 28-29 Sep.
RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 5-6 Oct.
Changes w/ 28-29 Sep.
October 7, 2025 at 2:05 PM
I laughed. But also, completely seriously, can anyone point me to things written on Duverger vs. recent polls out of the UK?
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
October 7, 2025 at 11:28 AM
@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:
🧵⬇️
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
Really excited that after several years of working on it, revising, and getting lots of rejections, our paper (w/ Rune Stubager & Mads Thau) on citizens’ responses to group appeals is *finally* out @ejprjournal.bsky.social
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions
www.cambridge.org
October 6, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Really excited that after several years of working on it, revising, and getting lots of rejections, our paper (w/ Rune Stubager & Mads Thau) on citizens’ responses to group appeals is *finally* out @ejprjournal.bsky.social
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
A 🧵 on our findings...
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
This one neat trick can help you teach US politics during an institutional collapse:
Tell the truth.
That's it. Just tell it like it is. Be radical.
Tell the truth.
That's it. Just tell it like it is. Be radical.
October 1, 2025 at 11:40 AM
This one neat trick can help you teach US politics during an institutional collapse:
Tell the truth.
That's it. Just tell it like it is. Be radical.
Tell the truth.
That's it. Just tell it like it is. Be radical.
You know what's quaint? Walking into a classroom of 20-yr olds, who have known nothing but the Trump era in politics, and explaining to them that ten years ago we Elders had a Big Debate™ about whether Trump support was *really* about racial attitudes.
September 26, 2025 at 1:32 PM
You know what's quaint? Walking into a classroom of 20-yr olds, who have known nothing but the Trump era in politics, and explaining to them that ten years ago we Elders had a Big Debate™ about whether Trump support was *really* about racial attitudes.
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
I do not regret to inform you that we are going to win (h/t @miriamposner.com)
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
September 21, 2025 at 5:44 PM
I do not regret to inform you that we are going to win (h/t @miriamposner.com)
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Did the Bright Lines survey (yes absolutely a humblebrag) and the rate at which the questions and scenarios are getting darker with each subsequent survey could be its own research project.
September 16, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Did the Bright Lines survey (yes absolutely a humblebrag) and the rate at which the questions and scenarios are getting darker with each subsequent survey could be its own research project.
I offer up “Borgen” as a tv series that political scientists appreciate for getting politics right.
an interesting subtopic! which shows/movies are beloved by the profession for Getting It Right! Lawyers famously love MY COUSIN VINNIE, doctors I believe love SCRUBS, apparently Aussie barristers are surprisingly fond of RAKE's depiction of some aspects of the law.
Oh god I remember watching HOUSE with some doctors, it was a the usual mix of “you would get fired instantly and never practice medicine again no matter how good u are” and “that case actually isn’t hard to solve at all”
August 29, 2025 at 12:11 AM
I offer up “Borgen” as a tv series that political scientists appreciate for getting politics right.
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
Warnings From Weimar
Why bargaining with authoritarians fails.
www.foreignaffairs.com
August 28, 2025 at 10:17 AM
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
It is the darkest irony that re-sharing @kjhealy.co's "Rituals of Childhood", which analyzes mass shootings as an institutionalized Killing Day, has itself become an seasonal fall ritual. kieranhealy.org/blog/archive...
Rituals of Childhood
Back in April, in Ireland, my nephew Luke made his first communion alongside his school classmates. I did much the same thing myself in much the same place about forty years ago. My brother tells me that the preparation nowadays is a little more humane than the version we enjoyed. But there is as much anticipation beforehand, and no less excitement on the day. Luke’s little suit lacked the stylish navy-blue velvet panels mine sported in 1980, but in essence the event was the same in its purpose, its form, and in most of its details. A first communion inducts a child into one of the sacraments of the Church, having them take a step towards adulthood in expectation of the regular re-enactment of the event throughout the rest of their lives.
kieranhealy.org
August 27, 2025 at 9:11 PM
It is the darkest irony that re-sharing @kjhealy.co's "Rituals of Childhood", which analyzes mass shootings as an institutionalized Killing Day, has itself become an seasonal fall ritual. kieranhealy.org/blog/archive...
Reposted by Kris-Stella Trump
if we made immigration work how people think it works that would be the biggest liberalization of immigration in American history
Thinking on this point and there really is maybe a golden opportunity in the near future to make immigration radically simpler. Clear out the queues, make green cards easier, etc. Public opinion is sort of pro immigration right now and it might only go up
3. However, this leads to centering punishing ICE rather than helping immigrants (through regularization of status, increasing visa quotas, etc.). There are viral posts here about the need to prosecute ICE members after Trump leaves office. There aren't any about giving immigrants green cards.
August 27, 2025 at 7:56 PM
if we made immigration work how people think it works that would be the biggest liberalization of immigration in American history
I am preparing to teach the first class of "Introduction to Public Opinion" while also perusing the headlines this morning, and the sense of futility in what I am doing is hard to combat.
I really want to believe that American public opinion still matters. It makes me feel better that most Americans don’t support these policies. But other non-democracies demonstrate that once institutions have been politically weaponized, public opinion matters significantly less.
August 25, 2025 at 2:23 PM
I am preparing to teach the first class of "Introduction to Public Opinion" while also perusing the headlines this morning, and the sense of futility in what I am doing is hard to combat.
Probably my most enduring political belief: you shall not think that some other person or group is fundamentally different from you. This belief is the worst combination of easy to fall into and corrosive in every way.
Co-signed times a thousand. “Other people have no interiority” is, fundamentally, a deeply evil belief to hold which will lead you exclusively to terrible places
One of my most moral panic style opinions is the use of “NPC” as a slur is a symptom of a societal sociopathy epidemic.
August 25, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Probably my most enduring political belief: you shall not think that some other person or group is fundamentally different from you. This belief is the worst combination of easy to fall into and corrosive in every way.
To mark the beginning of fall term:
this iconic advertising copywriter named Kathy Hepinstall Parks died over the weekend and I wanted to share something from her website I thought Bluesky would like
August 22, 2025 at 3:10 PM
To mark the beginning of fall term:
This is what I thought too... Liberal Currents already exists?
Where's the $4 million in venture capital for @liberalcurrents.com ?
@paulcrider.liberalcurrents.com , @adamgurri.liberalcurrents.com , you should probably look into that.
www.semafor.com/article/08/1...
@paulcrider.liberalcurrents.com , @adamgurri.liberalcurrents.com , you should probably look into that.
www.semafor.com/article/08/1...
August 18, 2025 at 3:10 PM
This is what I thought too... Liberal Currents already exists?
I think this is right.
For an example of how to call things out in plain terms, here is how Rolling Stone put it recently:
"Trump and his administration’s justification for his D.C. operation [...] appears entirely pretextual."
It can be done.
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
For an example of how to call things out in plain terms, here is how Rolling Stone put it recently:
"Trump and his administration’s justification for his D.C. operation [...] appears entirely pretextual."
It can be done.
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
August 15, 2025 at 2:26 PM
I think this is right.
For an example of how to call things out in plain terms, here is how Rolling Stone put it recently:
"Trump and his administration’s justification for his D.C. operation [...] appears entirely pretextual."
It can be done.
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
For an example of how to call things out in plain terms, here is how Rolling Stone put it recently:
"Trump and his administration’s justification for his D.C. operation [...] appears entirely pretextual."
It can be done.
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
Genuine question: does anyone know of social science research that explores the potential route from "absence of universal health care" -> "culture of individual responsibility for staying healthy" + "vibrant alternative medicine culture" -> "pseudo-Darwinian rejection of modern medicine"?
I am congenitally resistant to conspiracy thinking, but this really does feel like a eugenic plot. There is some dark, pseudo-Darwinian thinking on the right that equates illness with moral unfitness, and prefers that the weak die, indeed demands that they be culled. Truly a death cult.
NIH Director Battacharya on mRNA technology: "We should not be using as a platform for mass vaccination"
August 14, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Genuine question: does anyone know of social science research that explores the potential route from "absence of universal health care" -> "culture of individual responsibility for staying healthy" + "vibrant alternative medicine culture" -> "pseudo-Darwinian rejection of modern medicine"?