Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
@hferrinholopes.bsky.social
Lecturer at Iscte-IUL & @uminho.bsky.social 🎓
I study how political parties adapt, endure, and fracture under grassroots and youth wing pressure — and how it affects party change, behavior and representation. 🗳️🔄🏛️
🔗 https://hugoferrinholopes.github.io/
I study how political parties adapt, endure, and fracture under grassroots and youth wing pressure — and how it affects party change, behavior and representation. 🗳️🔄🏛️
🔗 https://hugoferrinholopes.github.io/
Pinned
Fueled by coffee, lifted by friends: PhD done ✅🎓
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
An excellent collective study of the Portuguese populist radical right.
Chega: The New Portuguese Far Right
In the late 2010s, the Portuguese immunity to the far right came to a sudden end at the 2019 general elections, after the election of Chega’s leader – André Ventura – to the Assembly of the Republic. ...
www.routledge.com
January 5, 2026 at 11:20 AM
An excellent collective study of the Portuguese populist radical right.
Out today. 50 free copies available here: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/FDB9Z...
Latent populists activated? Party membership switching to the radical right
Populist radical right (PRR) parties are expanding their grassroots despite widespread membership decline elsewhere. Yet little is known about who joins them and the implications of recruitment fro...
www.tandfonline.com
December 30, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Out today. 50 free copies available here: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/FDB9Z...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🎄 Now if this isn't the perfect Christmas gift for scholars of elections! A fresh @cses.bsky.social Module 6 Advance Release for you all to analyze and explore!
Announcement: The Second Advance Release of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) Module 6 dataset is now available for download! For more information, please see: cses.org/2025/12/16/m...
December 17, 2025 at 9:47 PM
🎄 Now if this isn't the perfect Christmas gift for scholars of elections! A fresh @cses.bsky.social Module 6 Advance Release for you all to analyze and explore!
While mainstream parties have been losing members for decades, populist radical right (PRR) parties keep expanding their grassroots. Is that growth driven mostly by political “newcomers,” or also by former members of other parties? And do these groups differ on core PRR traits?
December 17, 2025 at 11:13 PM
While mainstream parties have been losing members for decades, populist radical right (PRR) parties keep expanding their grassroots. Is that growth driven mostly by political “newcomers,” or also by former members of other parties? And do these groups differ on core PRR traits?
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🌟 PHD FELLOWSHIP ALERT! 🌟
I’m hiring 1 PhD fellow for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting 09/26! Great PhD community + int'l & supportive environment + FUN city. 💰for conferences + workshops! Lots of mentoring & career development opportunities! Deadline Jan 29th. Please apply!
I’m hiring 1 PhD fellow for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting 09/26! Great PhD community + int'l & supportive environment + FUN city. 💰for conferences + workshops! Lots of mentoring & career development opportunities! Deadline Jan 29th. Please apply!
Doctoral student in Political Science, specialization in political economy and political behavior
Doctoral position in Political Science, specialization in political economy and political behavior
The Department of Political Science
web103.reachmee.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:54 AM
🌟 PHD FELLOWSHIP ALERT! 🌟
I’m hiring 1 PhD fellow for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting 09/26! Great PhD community + int'l & supportive environment + FUN city. 💰for conferences + workshops! Lots of mentoring & career development opportunities! Deadline Jan 29th. Please apply!
I’m hiring 1 PhD fellow for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting 09/26! Great PhD community + int'l & supportive environment + FUN city. 💰for conferences + workshops! Lots of mentoring & career development opportunities! Deadline Jan 29th. Please apply!
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
This is an amazing analysis of how Google Maps shapes restaurant ratings and choice! Bravo @laurenleek.eu open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
How Google Maps quietly allocates survival across London’s restaurants - and how I built a dashboard to see through it
I wanted a dinner recommendation and got a research agenda instead. Using 13000+ restaurants, I rebuild its ratings with machine learning and map how algorithmic visibility actually distributes power.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 10:22 AM
This is an amazing analysis of how Google Maps shapes restaurant ratings and choice! Bravo @laurenleek.eu open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
As Duncan says, this article was a lot of fun.
There's so much to it - the funky method, in-depth case studies, the nuancing of a well-established party organisation theory, spatial regressions, maps...
There's so much to it - the funky method, in-depth case studies, the nuancing of a well-established party organisation theory, spatial regressions, maps...
🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century
The idea that the presence of Western European political parties at grassroots level rose and fell in the twentieth century is central to some of the …
www.sciencedirect.com
December 8, 2025 at 7:49 AM
As Duncan says, this article was a lot of fun.
There's so much to it - the funky method, in-depth case studies, the nuancing of a well-established party organisation theory, spatial regressions, maps...
There's so much to it - the funky method, in-depth case studies, the nuancing of a well-established party organisation theory, spatial regressions, maps...
This is super interesting: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
December 8, 2025 at 12:34 PM
This is super interesting: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century
The idea that the presence of Western European political parties at grassroots level rose and fell in the twentieth century is central to some of the …
www.sciencedirect.com
December 8, 2025 at 1:13 AM
🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
I’ve never seen such a smooth parallel trend with such beautiful shaped lines.
And then PhD hits.
And then PhD hits.
Use of mental health medications in the population of Swedish PhD students is 40% higher than a matched sample by the fifth PhD year.
Be kind to PhD students. Don't take up PhD students you can't invest in. Alert prospective students of the reality of a PhD.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Be kind to PhD students. Don't take up PhD students you can't invest in. Alert prospective students of the reality of a PhD.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
December 6, 2025 at 6:01 PM
I’ve never seen such a smooth parallel trend with such beautiful shaped lines.
And then PhD hits.
And then PhD hits.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
This is pretty amazing. Read it.
New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf...
🧵
🧵
December 3, 2025 at 9:36 AM
This is pretty amazing. Read it.
Excited to be in Gothenburg this week. Very grateful to
@annkristinkolln.bsky.social for the invitation.
@annkristinkolln.bsky.social for the invitation.
December 2, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Excited to be in Gothenburg this week. Very grateful to
@annkristinkolln.bsky.social for the invitation.
@annkristinkolln.bsky.social for the invitation.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
„the importance of sample size stemmed from small effect sizes across studies (perhaps smaller than researchers may have anticipated), highlighting a tension between commonly used power calculi and determining what constitutes a “meaningful effect.“
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects:
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
-"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size"
-"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant"
academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
academic.oup.com
November 30, 2025 at 3:57 PM
„the importance of sample size stemmed from small effect sizes across studies (perhaps smaller than researchers may have anticipated), highlighting a tension between commonly used power calculi and determining what constitutes a “meaningful effect.“
This debate brought me back to a great replication course I took in 2023 with @simonhix.bsky.social at @eui-eu.bsky.social. I’m learning a lot from both sides. Critique is welcome -- what we should avoid is turning disagreements into attacks on authors.
November 29, 2025 at 5:43 PM
This debate brought me back to a great replication course I took in 2023 with @simonhix.bsky.social at @eui-eu.bsky.social. I’m learning a lot from both sides. Critique is welcome -- what we should avoid is turning disagreements into attacks on authors.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🚨 We have a cool new ESRC PhD studentship opportunity on the topic of political persuasion for someone interested in campaigning, field experiments and/or computational methods @lsegovernment.bsky.social, in collaboration with
@campaign-lab.bsky.social. All info 👇
www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
@campaign-lab.bsky.social. All info 👇
www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
LSE Collaborative Studentship with Campaign Lab
LSE Collaborative Studentship with Campaign Lab
www.lse.ac.uk
October 6, 2025 at 10:57 AM
🚨 We have a cool new ESRC PhD studentship opportunity on the topic of political persuasion for someone interested in campaigning, field experiments and/or computational methods @lsegovernment.bsky.social, in collaboration with
@campaign-lab.bsky.social. All info 👇
www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
@campaign-lab.bsky.social. All info 👇
www.lse.ac.uk/study-at-lse...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
A rare benefit of being awake in the middle of the night (day 10 of jetlag!): you get to see this drop into your mailbox.
Coming soon, by @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me, in Political Geography.
Coming soon, by @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me, in Political Geography.
November 26, 2025 at 6:29 PM
A rare benefit of being awake in the middle of the night (day 10 of jetlag!): you get to see this drop into your mailbox.
Coming soon, by @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me, in Political Geography.
Coming soon, by @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me, in Political Geography.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
November 25, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This is wild!
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
“We estimate that from the mid-2000s to 2022, exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial elections.”
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic,” by Arteaga (@caroartc.bsky.social) and Barone (@vickybarone.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects Of the Opioid Epidemic
Abstract. In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: t
doi.org
November 25, 2025 at 2:05 AM
“We estimate that from the mid-2000s to 2022, exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial elections.”
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🌟 JOB ALERT! 🌟
I’m hiring 1 postdoc for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting ca. Aug '26! Congenial colleagues + int'l & supportive environment. 💸 for conferences + workshops! Lots of professional networking opportunities with scholars! Deadline Jan 7th. Apply! (see more below 🧵)
I’m hiring 1 postdoc for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting ca. Aug '26! Congenial colleagues + int'l & supportive environment. 💸 for conferences + workshops! Lots of professional networking opportunities with scholars! Deadline Jan 7th. Apply! (see more below 🧵)
Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science PAR 2025/838
The Department of Political Science is an international academic environment that welcomes students, researchers and
web103.reachmee.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:06 AM
🌟 JOB ALERT! 🌟
I’m hiring 1 postdoc for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting ca. Aug '26! Congenial colleagues + int'l & supportive environment. 💸 for conferences + workshops! Lots of professional networking opportunities with scholars! Deadline Jan 7th. Apply! (see more below 🧵)
I’m hiring 1 postdoc for my ERC project ECONENGAGE (@ Gothenburg 🇸🇪)! Starting ca. Aug '26! Congenial colleagues + int'l & supportive environment. 💸 for conferences + workshops! Lots of professional networking opportunities with scholars! Deadline Jan 7th. Apply! (see more below 🧵)
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
November 25, 2025 at 8:38 AM
🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social
Any questions, please reach out to me
📣 Please share! 📣
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
🚨New genAI teaching material: an Electoral System Explorer built with Claude. It lets students see how votes translate to seats under different electoral systems. Try it here: claude.ai/public/artif.... Feedback, as always, is very much appreciated!
#poliski
#poliski
Electoral System Explorer - Interactive Voting & Gerrymandering Tool
Explore how electoral systems work with this interactive tool. Draw districts, adjust party support, and compare majoritarian vs proportional results.
claude.ai
November 25, 2025 at 9:48 AM
🚨New genAI teaching material: an Electoral System Explorer built with Claude. It lets students see how votes translate to seats under different electoral systems. Try it here: claude.ai/public/artif.... Feedback, as always, is very much appreciated!
#poliski
#poliski
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇
Do policy preferences of voters and non-voters differ in European democracies?
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
My new article in @ejprjournal.bsky.social finds: Yes, sometimes, but this is not the norm.
Let's break it down. 🧵 1/10
November 19, 2025 at 1:49 PM
‼️ Important new paper on the consequences of low turnout for representation by @mascakir.bsky.social, see Semih's 🧵 for a summary of his findings 👇
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
📻 Great new podcast on political behaviour - the last episode features my @lsegovernment.bsky.social colleague Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social on whether campaigns matter, Mamdani’s victory and the Dutch elections -
listen here ⬇️
linktr.ee/Politically....
listen here ⬇️
linktr.ee/Politically....
November 15, 2025 at 6:48 PM
📻 Great new podcast on political behaviour - the last episode features my @lsegovernment.bsky.social colleague Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social on whether campaigns matter, Mamdani’s victory and the Dutch elections -
listen here ⬇️
linktr.ee/Politically....
listen here ⬇️
linktr.ee/Politically....
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
This plot is from a different, evil world.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
It's *scientific publishing*.
We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...
Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
November 13, 2025 at 2:37 PM
This plot is from a different, evil world.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Oh, wait a minute: this is reality. Publishers making like 38% profit margins.
Reposted by Hugo Ferrinho Lopes
50 years after Angola's independence, 44% of Angolans disagree with the removal of symbols of Portuguese colonialism, and 30% are in favor. We will publish today the results of polls in Portugal, Cape Verde, and Angola on the 50th anniversary of Portuguese decolonization.
November 11, 2025 at 10:49 AM
50 years after Angola's independence, 44% of Angolans disagree with the removal of symbols of Portuguese colonialism, and 30% are in favor. We will publish today the results of polls in Portugal, Cape Verde, and Angola on the 50th anniversary of Portuguese decolonization.