Claire Hartnell
@cjhartnell.bsky.social
Mostly systems thinking, complexity & frustration. Finally scratching an itch with my MSc in Human Evolution at UCL.
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Pinned
The unkillable bird
Gaussian markets, power laws and the hyper cycle
open.substack.com
I wrote about the ‘unkillable birds’ that have been allowed to take over our system. We see our world as predictable and linear. We think small contingencies will protect us from the worst risks. They won’t. Here's why:
open.substack.com/pub/clairejh...
open.substack.com/pub/clairejh...
It really is good👇
Don’t miss this Masterclass by an expert on “the media and politics, and journalism's struggle for survival”. Thread
"When in doubt, draw a distinction."
Not sure where he got it, but in grad school one of my teachers taught me that.
This (long) thread is about the key distinctions I rely on as a critic. There's a Twitter version from 2021. This one builds on that one.
I will post them one at a time. Ready?
Not sure where he got it, but in grad school one of my teachers taught me that.
This (long) thread is about the key distinctions I rely on as a critic. There's a Twitter version from 2021. This one builds on that one.
I will post them one at a time. Ready?
February 1, 2026 at 10:17 PM
It really is good👇
What I find striking is that they all seem to have thought he was their best friend. The man was an absolute sociopath - it is a masterclass in seeing how these people operate.
February 1, 2026 at 3:31 PM
What I find striking is that they all seem to have thought he was their best friend. The man was an absolute sociopath - it is a masterclass in seeing how these people operate.
What this child has gone through. The stress surges will live in his body. He’ll feel unsafe & needy, likely causing hell to future partners. He’ll shut down or lose control when threatened. He may struggle at school & fall into petty crime. It is criminal for the state to inflict such harm👇
It should not take a court order to get a toddler out of a prison.
February 1, 2026 at 9:36 AM
What this child has gone through. The stress surges will live in his body. He’ll feel unsafe & needy, likely causing hell to future partners. He’ll shut down or lose control when threatened. He may struggle at school & fall into petty crime. It is criminal for the state to inflict such harm👇
The financial crisis is why we’re here. We backstopped asset markets & tore money out of the real economy with austerity. Better to have split the banks, let housing crash, let City contract & sort out our damn trade deficit & energy deficiency. Instead we got Brexit & US tech monopolies.
“More people despair over “broken” Britain than during financial crisis”
I wonder why, The Telegraph, The Times, Daily Mail, Daily Express, Sun, BBC, GB “News”, Farage, Reform etc and so on…
I wonder why, The Telegraph, The Times, Daily Mail, Daily Express, Sun, BBC, GB “News”, Farage, Reform etc and so on…
More people despair over ‘broken Britain’ than during financial crisis
Poll finds dissatisfaction at state of the nation higher than after 2008 crash, with Reform voters most likely to believe UK is in decline
www.telegraph.co.uk
February 1, 2026 at 9:31 AM
The financial crisis is why we’re here. We backstopped asset markets & tore money out of the real economy with austerity. Better to have split the banks, let housing crash, let City contract & sort out our damn trade deficit & energy deficiency. Instead we got Brexit & US tech monopolies.
I think there’s another way to look at it. What it tells us is that trust/reputation no longer predicts voter sentiment. Which means something else is having a much stronger effect on collective sense making. I would warrant it’s: “something big needs to change”. Farage is another beneficiary.
February 1, 2026 at 9:26 AM
I think there’s another way to look at it. What it tells us is that trust/reputation no longer predicts voter sentiment. Which means something else is having a much stronger effect on collective sense making. I would warrant it’s: “something big needs to change”. Farage is another beneficiary.
What do they propose?
January 31, 2026 at 12:37 PM
What do they propose?
It really is an urgent matter. A huge geopolitical mistake that ties us into path dependent reliance on the US👇
I hope there is at least one MP with the courage to ask the government to justify the frankly bizarre contracts being awarded to Palantir by HMG in health, justice and defence.
The NAO and Parliament need to get involved.
The NAO and Parliament need to get involved.
SCOOP: Palantir Defends Work With ICE to Staff Following Killing of Alex Pretti
WIRED obtained Slack conversations + an updated internal Palantir wiki defending the company's work for ICE to outraged workers.
More here:
www.wired.com/story/palant...
WIRED obtained Slack conversations + an updated internal Palantir wiki defending the company's work for ICE to outraged workers.
More here:
www.wired.com/story/palant...
January 27, 2026 at 8:06 AM
It really is an urgent matter. A huge geopolitical mistake that ties us into path dependent reliance on the US👇
“Stop pretending Jesus was crucified because he preached good vibes & personal growth”
Amen to that. Jesus was a radical who stood up to power to protect the weak.
A stunning piece of writing👇
Amen to that. Jesus was a radical who stood up to power to protect the weak.
A stunning piece of writing👇
January 26, 2026 at 9:15 AM
“Stop pretending Jesus was crucified because he preached good vibes & personal growth”
Amen to that. Jesus was a radical who stood up to power to protect the weak.
A stunning piece of writing👇
Amen to that. Jesus was a radical who stood up to power to protect the weak.
A stunning piece of writing👇
… most difficult paradigm to shift in financialised economies. Because the goal is profit maximisation. When it should be ontology maximisation. So Deming is great. But continuous improvement is insufficient. Eventually it leads to diminishing returns. Which is the real reason that AI is not enough.
January 26, 2026 at 7:34 AM
… most difficult paradigm to shift in financialised economies. Because the goal is profit maximisation. When it should be ontology maximisation. So Deming is great. But continuous improvement is insufficient. Eventually it leads to diminishing returns. Which is the real reason that AI is not enough.
… and this is Part 2 of complexity. Which Deming & Kaizen & muda ignores. Novelty. For a system to *remain* productive it must keep introducing novelty - not just sampling existing phase space (efficiency). And novelty is expensive. It needs mistakes & fruitless searches & messiness. This is the …
January 26, 2026 at 7:34 AM
… and this is Part 2 of complexity. Which Deming & Kaizen & muda ignores. Novelty. For a system to *remain* productive it must keep introducing novelty - not just sampling existing phase space (efficiency). And novelty is expensive. It needs mistakes & fruitless searches & messiness. This is the …
You make a good point on complexity. Fewer steps with same level of complexity is indeed more productivity. This is how modern complexity science describes evolution. BUT there is something missing from just error detection > error correction. Because this *reduces* overall variation …
January 26, 2026 at 7:34 AM
You make a good point on complexity. Fewer steps with same level of complexity is indeed more productivity. This is how modern complexity science describes evolution. BUT there is something missing from just error detection > error correction. Because this *reduces* overall variation …
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
You might ask why Labour seems fixated on giving Palantir contracts for police and health in the UK?
Why Minneapolis? How are they choosing their targets?
404 Media also recently learned Palantir is working on a tool for ICE that populates a map with potential deportation targets based on addresses, and ICE is using it to find locations where lots of people it might detain could be based.
404 Media also recently learned Palantir is working on a tool for ICE that populates a map with potential deportation targets based on addresses, and ICE is using it to find locations where lots of people it might detain could be based.
‘ELITE’: The Palantir App ICE Uses to Find Neighborhoods to Raid
Internal ICE material and testimony from an official obtained by 404 Media provides the clearest link yet between the technological infrastructure Palantir is building for ICE and the agency’s activit...
www.404media.co
January 25, 2026 at 5:21 PM
You might ask why Labour seems fixated on giving Palantir contracts for police and health in the UK?
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Don’t let this White House lie to you. Believe what you see.
Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman off the ground. Then immigration agents tackled, shot, and killed him.
It’s time for them to get the hell out of MN.
Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman off the ground. Then immigration agents tackled, shot, and killed him.
It’s time for them to get the hell out of MN.
January 25, 2026 at 3:55 AM
Don’t let this White House lie to you. Believe what you see.
Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman off the ground. Then immigration agents tackled, shot, and killed him.
It’s time for them to get the hell out of MN.
Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman off the ground. Then immigration agents tackled, shot, and killed him.
It’s time for them to get the hell out of MN.
… with UK as key partner 4) drop all tariffs on cheap Green imports from China 5) QUICKLY build national self defence mechanisms. This is the only way Europe will avoid becoming a colony of the US used to provide a high standard of living to the Volksgenossen. I hope our leaders see it. END
January 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM
… with UK as key partner 4) drop all tariffs on cheap Green imports from China 5) QUICKLY build national self defence mechanisms. This is the only way Europe will avoid becoming a colony of the US used to provide a high standard of living to the Volksgenossen. I hope our leaders see it. END
… this even if it leads to short term inflation, loss of democracy & the end of the rules based system. The best thing Europe could do is 1) negotiate peace in Ukraine (🤷🏻♀️sorry) 2) build a coalition with Russia for resources & energy 3) QUICKLY build European payments & digital infrastructure…
January 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM
… this even if it leads to short term inflation, loss of democracy & the end of the rules based system. The best thing Europe could do is 1) negotiate peace in Ukraine (🤷🏻♀️sorry) 2) build a coalition with Russia for resources & energy 3) QUICKLY build European payments & digital infrastructure…
… Europe to accommodate your current account deficit (think British empire, sterling area, India) & you can acquire territory with necessary resources (oil, rare earth minerals) you can promise wealth to your people - under an extremely culturally repressive regime. Many US voters will choose …
January 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM
… Europe to accommodate your current account deficit (think British empire, sterling area, India) & you can acquire territory with necessary resources (oil, rare earth minerals) you can promise wealth to your people - under an extremely culturally repressive regime. Many US voters will choose …
… stacked administration posts, picked his judges, set up state militia (ICE) & taken control of national (DOGE) & international (SWIFT, Google, Microsoft) communication flows. There is a huge reward for all this - if you can use Latin America for cheap labour (think Hitler: Slavs) …
January 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM
… stacked administration posts, picked his judges, set up state militia (ICE) & taken control of national (DOGE) & international (SWIFT, Google, Microsoft) communication flows. There is a huge reward for all this - if you can use Latin America for cheap labour (think Hitler: Slavs) …
… outlined in the thread above. But once complex systems start to break down their constraints, they can auto-correlate & change happens very quickly. What we are now seeing. Can the system mean revert? Very difficult given the extreme amplifying feedback loop that Trump has activated. He has …
January 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM
… outlined in the thread above. But once complex systems start to break down their constraints, they can auto-correlate & change happens very quickly. What we are now seeing. Can the system mean revert? Very difficult given the extreme amplifying feedback loop that Trump has activated. He has …
… fragmentation back to a lower level or a leap ‘up’ into a new form: democracy, fascism, communism. These new systems will only persist if constrained & contained. Fascism was a container but failed to build sustainable constraints. Democracy was a container & built strong constraints …
January 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM
… fragmentation back to a lower level or a leap ‘up’ into a new form: democracy, fascism, communism. These new systems will only persist if constrained & contained. Fascism was a container but failed to build sustainable constraints. Democracy was a container & built strong constraints …
… both globally (surpluses & deficits) & nationally (consumption vs investment > debt vs wages). Eventually, when a system stops producing a new ontology & starts concentrating energy (wealth / power) at the centre, you will see these tipping points. There are 2 ways for such a system to go ..
January 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM
… both globally (surpluses & deficits) & nationally (consumption vs investment > debt vs wages). Eventually, when a system stops producing a new ontology & starts concentrating energy (wealth / power) at the centre, you will see these tipping points. There are 2 ways for such a system to go ..
Polanyi explained it all a long time ago. The Double Movement: society will push back against ‘self-regulating’ markets once their effects become too destabilising. 2008 was the opportunity for change. We flunked it & let the feedback loop worsen. Now we have extremely unbalanced economies …
January 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM
Polanyi explained it all a long time ago. The Double Movement: society will push back against ‘self-regulating’ markets once their effects become too destabilising. 2008 was the opportunity for change. We flunked it & let the feedback loop worsen. Now we have extremely unbalanced economies …
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Alex Pretti was a colleague at the VA. We hired him to recruit for our trial. He became an ICU nurse- I lover working with him. He was a good kind person who lived to help and these fuckers executed him.
White. Hot. Rage.
White. Hot. Rage.
January 24, 2026 at 7:31 PM
Alex Pretti was a colleague at the VA. We hired him to recruit for our trial. He became an ICU nurse- I lover working with him. He was a good kind person who lived to help and these fuckers executed him.
White. Hot. Rage.
White. Hot. Rage.
Gosh, this is quite something👇
A video of Alex Pretti reading out the final salute of an unnamed veteran he cared for until the end of his life in the ICU, posted to Facebook by his son.
January 25, 2026 at 9:43 AM
Gosh, this is quite something👇
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
The people who spent years defending and even lionizing Kyle Rittenhouse and Ashli Babbitt now want us to believe that an unarmed mother in her car and a disarmed nurse were domestic terrorists who deserved to be murdered by law enforcement.
January 25, 2026 at 4:26 AM
The people who spent years defending and even lionizing Kyle Rittenhouse and Ashli Babbitt now want us to believe that an unarmed mother in her car and a disarmed nurse were domestic terrorists who deserved to be murdered by law enforcement.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
They know what they say is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
The media know that what they repeat is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Their supporters know what they are told is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Telling the truth is not enough, unless people care about the truth.
The media know that what they repeat is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Their supporters know what they are told is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Telling the truth is not enough, unless people care about the truth.
January 24, 2026 at 11:25 PM
They know what they say is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
The media know that what they repeat is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Their supporters know what they are told is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Telling the truth is not enough, unless people care about the truth.
The media know that what they repeat is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Their supporters know what they are told is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Telling the truth is not enough, unless people care about the truth.