Claire Hartnell
@cjhartnell.bsky.social
Mostly systems thinking, complexity & frustration. Finally scratching an itch with my MSc in Human Evolution at UCL.
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Pinned
The unkillable bird
Gaussian markets, power laws and the hyper cycle
open.substack.com
I wrote about the ‘unkillable birds’ that have been allowed to take over our system. We see our world as predictable and linear. We think small contingencies will protect us from the worst risks. They won’t. Here's why:
open.substack.com/pub/clairejh...
open.substack.com/pub/clairejh...
It really is good👇
Don’t miss this Masterclass by an expert on “the media and politics, and journalism's struggle for survival”. Thread
"When in doubt, draw a distinction."
Not sure where he got it, but in grad school one of my teachers taught me that.
This (long) thread is about the key distinctions I rely on as a critic. There's a Twitter version from 2021. This one builds on that one.
I will post them one at a time. Ready?
Not sure where he got it, but in grad school one of my teachers taught me that.
This (long) thread is about the key distinctions I rely on as a critic. There's a Twitter version from 2021. This one builds on that one.
I will post them one at a time. Ready?
February 1, 2026 at 10:17 PM
It really is good👇
What this child has gone through. The stress surges will live in his body. He’ll feel unsafe & needy, likely causing hell to future partners. He’ll shut down or lose control when threatened. He may struggle at school & fall into petty crime. It is criminal for the state to inflict such harm👇
It should not take a court order to get a toddler out of a prison.
February 1, 2026 at 9:36 AM
What this child has gone through. The stress surges will live in his body. He’ll feel unsafe & needy, likely causing hell to future partners. He’ll shut down or lose control when threatened. He may struggle at school & fall into petty crime. It is criminal for the state to inflict such harm👇
The financial crisis is why we’re here. We backstopped asset markets & tore money out of the real economy with austerity. Better to have split the banks, let housing crash, let City contract & sort out our damn trade deficit & energy deficiency. Instead we got Brexit & US tech monopolies.
“More people despair over “broken” Britain than during financial crisis”
I wonder why, The Telegraph, The Times, Daily Mail, Daily Express, Sun, BBC, GB “News”, Farage, Reform etc and so on…
I wonder why, The Telegraph, The Times, Daily Mail, Daily Express, Sun, BBC, GB “News”, Farage, Reform etc and so on…
More people despair over ‘broken Britain’ than during financial crisis
Poll finds dissatisfaction at state of the nation higher than after 2008 crash, with Reform voters most likely to believe UK is in decline
www.telegraph.co.uk
February 1, 2026 at 9:31 AM
The financial crisis is why we’re here. We backstopped asset markets & tore money out of the real economy with austerity. Better to have split the banks, let housing crash, let City contract & sort out our damn trade deficit & energy deficiency. Instead we got Brexit & US tech monopolies.
It really is an urgent matter. A huge geopolitical mistake that ties us into path dependent reliance on the US👇
I hope there is at least one MP with the courage to ask the government to justify the frankly bizarre contracts being awarded to Palantir by HMG in health, justice and defence.
The NAO and Parliament need to get involved.
The NAO and Parliament need to get involved.
SCOOP: Palantir Defends Work With ICE to Staff Following Killing of Alex Pretti
WIRED obtained Slack conversations + an updated internal Palantir wiki defending the company's work for ICE to outraged workers.
More here:
www.wired.com/story/palant...
WIRED obtained Slack conversations + an updated internal Palantir wiki defending the company's work for ICE to outraged workers.
More here:
www.wired.com/story/palant...
January 27, 2026 at 8:06 AM
It really is an urgent matter. A huge geopolitical mistake that ties us into path dependent reliance on the US👇
“Stop pretending Jesus was crucified because he preached good vibes & personal growth”
Amen to that. Jesus was a radical who stood up to power to protect the weak.
A stunning piece of writing👇
Amen to that. Jesus was a radical who stood up to power to protect the weak.
A stunning piece of writing👇
January 26, 2026 at 9:15 AM
“Stop pretending Jesus was crucified because he preached good vibes & personal growth”
Amen to that. Jesus was a radical who stood up to power to protect the weak.
A stunning piece of writing👇
Amen to that. Jesus was a radical who stood up to power to protect the weak.
A stunning piece of writing👇
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
You might ask why Labour seems fixated on giving Palantir contracts for police and health in the UK?
Why Minneapolis? How are they choosing their targets?
404 Media also recently learned Palantir is working on a tool for ICE that populates a map with potential deportation targets based on addresses, and ICE is using it to find locations where lots of people it might detain could be based.
404 Media also recently learned Palantir is working on a tool for ICE that populates a map with potential deportation targets based on addresses, and ICE is using it to find locations where lots of people it might detain could be based.
‘ELITE’: The Palantir App ICE Uses to Find Neighborhoods to Raid
Internal ICE material and testimony from an official obtained by 404 Media provides the clearest link yet between the technological infrastructure Palantir is building for ICE and the agency’s activit...
www.404media.co
January 25, 2026 at 5:21 PM
You might ask why Labour seems fixated on giving Palantir contracts for police and health in the UK?
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Don’t let this White House lie to you. Believe what you see.
Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman off the ground. Then immigration agents tackled, shot, and killed him.
It’s time for them to get the hell out of MN.
Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman off the ground. Then immigration agents tackled, shot, and killed him.
It’s time for them to get the hell out of MN.
January 25, 2026 at 3:55 AM
Don’t let this White House lie to you. Believe what you see.
Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman off the ground. Then immigration agents tackled, shot, and killed him.
It’s time for them to get the hell out of MN.
Alex Pretti was trying to help a woman off the ground. Then immigration agents tackled, shot, and killed him.
It’s time for them to get the hell out of MN.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Alex Pretti was a colleague at the VA. We hired him to recruit for our trial. He became an ICU nurse- I lover working with him. He was a good kind person who lived to help and these fuckers executed him.
White. Hot. Rage.
White. Hot. Rage.
January 24, 2026 at 7:31 PM
Alex Pretti was a colleague at the VA. We hired him to recruit for our trial. He became an ICU nurse- I lover working with him. He was a good kind person who lived to help and these fuckers executed him.
White. Hot. Rage.
White. Hot. Rage.
Gosh, this is quite something👇
A video of Alex Pretti reading out the final salute of an unnamed veteran he cared for until the end of his life in the ICU, posted to Facebook by his son.
January 25, 2026 at 9:43 AM
Gosh, this is quite something👇
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
The people who spent years defending and even lionizing Kyle Rittenhouse and Ashli Babbitt now want us to believe that an unarmed mother in her car and a disarmed nurse were domestic terrorists who deserved to be murdered by law enforcement.
January 25, 2026 at 4:26 AM
The people who spent years defending and even lionizing Kyle Rittenhouse and Ashli Babbitt now want us to believe that an unarmed mother in her car and a disarmed nurse were domestic terrorists who deserved to be murdered by law enforcement.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
They know what they say is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
The media know that what they repeat is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Their supporters know what they are told is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Telling the truth is not enough, unless people care about the truth.
The media know that what they repeat is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Their supporters know what they are told is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Telling the truth is not enough, unless people care about the truth.
January 24, 2026 at 11:25 PM
They know what they say is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
The media know that what they repeat is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Their supporters know what they are told is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Telling the truth is not enough, unless people care about the truth.
The media know that what they repeat is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Their supporters know what they are told is untrue, they do not care it is untrue.
Telling the truth is not enough, unless people care about the truth.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
All to please a wannabe king who is demented and thrives on violence.
January 25, 2026 at 3:55 AM
All to please a wannabe king who is demented and thrives on violence.
Exactly. The important thing is to balance trade & capital flows. Not try & protect against genuine productivity improvements👇
1/2
There is nothing wrong with the world importing EVs from China. If China has a comparative advantage in producing EVs, it should be a net exporter to the rest of the world. That's how global trade works best.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
There is nothing wrong with the world importing EVs from China. If China has a comparative advantage in producing EVs, it should be a net exporter to the rest of the world. That's how global trade works best.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
China Makes Too Many Cars, and the World Is Increasingly OK With It
Concerns about overcapacity were justified. But now, no matter?
www.bloomberg.com
January 23, 2026 at 7:57 AM
Exactly. The important thing is to balance trade & capital flows. Not try & protect against genuine productivity improvements👇
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Code for - we need govts to give us more $, because the market is not delivering adequate use and revenues, because users don't yet see the benefits from the technology.
AI boom could falter without wider adoption, Microsoft chief Satya Nadella warns
AI boom could falter without wider adoption, Microsoft chief Satya Nadella warns
Big tech boss tells delegates at Davos that broader global use is essential if technology is to deliver lasting growth
www.irishtimes.com
January 22, 2026 at 12:49 AM
Code for - we need govts to give us more $, because the market is not delivering adequate use and revenues, because users don't yet see the benefits from the technology.
Because the US needs oil. It needs oil to sustain $$ demand. Once countries are self sufficient in energy, the demand for $$s dies & the US can’t fund their budget. China & Oil > strong $$. End of oil, China decoupled, the US has a massively overvalued stock markets & a gig economy👇
Russia is invading Europe and the president of the United States is ranting about the danger that "windmills" pose to the Western World.
January 22, 2026 at 8:19 AM
Because the US needs oil. It needs oil to sustain $$ demand. Once countries are self sufficient in energy, the demand for $$s dies & the US can’t fund their budget. China & Oil > strong $$. End of oil, China decoupled, the US has a massively overvalued stock markets & a gig economy👇
Great interview *but* “the motive is domination” is wrong. The motive is fear. The US saw that China was beginning to decouple from the US system. That put the $$ at risk & *that* puts all those crazy/stupid valuations at risk which is why the tech billionaires got involved. The UK & EU now have …
@carolecadwalla.bsky.social interviews historian Robert Kagan about the end of American hegemony, the EU's need to individuate from the US immediately, and the prospects for MAGA's and America's future. Our crisis is well advanced. www.youtube.com/watch?v=0goG...
Europe needs a dramatic strategic revolution - now: historian Robert Kagan
YouTube video by The Nerve
www.youtube.com
January 21, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Great interview *but* “the motive is domination” is wrong. The motive is fear. The US saw that China was beginning to decouple from the US system. That put the $$ at risk & *that* puts all those crazy/stupid valuations at risk which is why the tech billionaires got involved. The UK & EU now have …
You are missing that the $$ is going to come under increasing pressure & may collapse if China stops investing its surplus in US markets. There are better responses than Trump’s but forcing your trade deficit on your colonies - sorry, allies - is hardly new?
Fight and help win a world war.
Establish a global order that cements your national power for 80 years.
Blow it all up.
What am I missing?
Establish a global order that cements your national power for 80 years.
Blow it all up.
What am I missing?
January 18, 2026 at 4:56 PM
You are missing that the $$ is going to come under increasing pressure & may collapse if China stops investing its surplus in US markets. There are better responses than Trump’s but forcing your trade deficit on your colonies - sorry, allies - is hardly new?
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
2024: can Europe defend itself ALONGSIDE America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
January 18, 2026 at 10:12 AM
2024: can Europe defend itself ALONGSIDE America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
2025: can Europe defend itself WITHOUT America?
2026: can Europe defend itself AGAINST America?
The question they should be asking is whether the EU will choose *them*? 2 despots on 2 fronts & they haven’t even got energy security? 🤔
Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen declared: "If we have to choose between the United States and Denmark here and now, we choose Denmark. We choose NATO, the Kingdom of Denmark, and the EU."
January 14, 2026 at 4:12 PM
The question they should be asking is whether the EU will choose *them*? 2 despots on 2 fronts & they haven’t even got energy security? 🤔
This is the British economy writ large. We can’t afford our consumption. It can only be paid with debt, asset sales or cuts. We have had 20 years to figure this out yet politicians are ASLEEP. They daren’t explain that we can’t keep borrowing from tomorrow to fund today. We need WAGES not debt👇
KCC has balanced its £1.6bn budget for next year, but only by selling assets and raiding reserves, with a £95m funding gap already looming. Plus storm damage across Kent and another major water crisis.
KCC balances the books. For one year.
A bridged budget at County Hall, storm damage across Kent, and another water crisis unfolds
www.kentcurrent.news
January 13, 2026 at 7:39 AM
This is the British economy writ large. We can’t afford our consumption. It can only be paid with debt, asset sales or cuts. We have had 20 years to figure this out yet politicians are ASLEEP. They daren’t explain that we can’t keep borrowing from tomorrow to fund today. We need WAGES not debt👇
LIQUIDITY PREFERENCE!!!!
Have none of them read Keynes?
Have none of them read Keynes?
Reading through the FT at the moment is a strange experience: revolution, war, disaster, brutal autocratic oppression, mad dictator shit....and then "markets continue to thrive"; "record profits".
January 12, 2026 at 9:00 AM
LIQUIDITY PREFERENCE!!!!
Have none of them read Keynes?
Have none of them read Keynes?
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Sublime shithousery from the @financialtimes.com 🤌🏽
Who’s who at X, the deepfake porn site formerly known as Twitter: shorturl.at/QkJ5A
Who’s who at X, the deepfake porn site formerly known as Twitter: shorturl.at/QkJ5A
January 6, 2026 at 6:37 PM
Sublime shithousery from the @financialtimes.com 🤌🏽
Who’s who at X, the deepfake porn site formerly known as Twitter: shorturl.at/QkJ5A
Who’s who at X, the deepfake porn site formerly known as Twitter: shorturl.at/QkJ5A
Dear God🤦🏻♀️
EXCLUSIVE: Labour have been condemned for giving the biggest ever Ministry of Defence contract to IDF-linked tech giant Palantir
🔗 www.thenational.scot/news/2...
🔗 www.thenational.scot/news/2...
January 6, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Dear God🤦🏻♀️
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
🚨 BREAKING: Household energy bills will INCREASE this week, while temperatures could reach -12° in parts of the UK.
Why on earth is the government allowing giant gas companies to RIP OFF the British public in the middle of winter? 🧵
Why on earth is the government allowing giant gas companies to RIP OFF the British public in the middle of winter? 🧵
January 6, 2026 at 1:36 PM
🚨 BREAKING: Household energy bills will INCREASE this week, while temperatures could reach -12° in parts of the UK.
Why on earth is the government allowing giant gas companies to RIP OFF the British public in the middle of winter? 🧵
Why on earth is the government allowing giant gas companies to RIP OFF the British public in the middle of winter? 🧵
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Private equity owned Claire's and The Original Factory Shop to enter administration.
Years of under-investment and cash extraction take toll.
Private equity continues to devour high street.
Years of under-investment and cash extraction take toll.
Private equity continues to devour high street.
Two major UK chains plunge into administration putting 2,500 jobs at risk
Claire's and The Original Factory Shop are set to enter administration, putting around 2,500 jobs at risk of redundancy, after their owner reported 'an alarming drop-off in pre-Christmas footfall'
www.mirror.co.uk
January 6, 2026 at 7:43 AM
Private equity owned Claire's and The Original Factory Shop to enter administration.
Years of under-investment and cash extraction take toll.
Private equity continues to devour high street.
Years of under-investment and cash extraction take toll.
Private equity continues to devour high street.