Claire Hartnell
@cjhartnell.bsky.social
Mostly systems thinking, complexity, organisational anthropology but also far too much amygdala hijack stuff
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
No, I was wrong actually - pulled up by another poster on my grammar. I am suitably contrite.
November 18, 2025 at 3:03 PM
No, I was wrong actually - pulled up by another poster on my grammar. I am suitably contrite.
Yes, you are right! Serves me right for being a pedant.
November 18, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Yes, you are right! Serves me right for being a pedant.
Oxford comma. Take another look.
November 18, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Oxford comma. Take another look.
Looks good - I wasn't aware of it but that is very much my view of the world.
November 18, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Looks good - I wasn't aware of it but that is very much my view of the world.
I think this translates as: extremely severe marital bollocking followed by brief period of shame, leading to (inevitably) an autobiography with mea culpa, published just in time for him to re-emerge as spokesman for the defence when the banks break the global economy again.
November 18, 2025 at 12:33 PM
I think this translates as: extremely severe marital bollocking followed by brief period of shame, leading to (inevitably) an autobiography with mea culpa, published just in time for him to re-emerge as spokesman for the defence when the banks break the global economy again.
Yes. This could happen. But the real question is whether the $$ can sustain another bailout. It probably can - just, at the moment. But that is what Trump's trade strategy is about. Keeping the $$ as the unit for global trade, getting allies to pay down US trade deficit, trying to cut China out.
November 18, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Yes. This could happen. But the real question is whether the $$ can sustain another bailout. It probably can - just, at the moment. But that is what Trump's trade strategy is about. Keeping the $$ as the unit for global trade, getting allies to pay down US trade deficit, trying to cut China out.
… rents to fund their diabolical plans for space colonies & eternal life. Of course it will all collapse & China will detach from the US. But trust me, these reports about a bubble are intentional. They are readying themselves to make us pay AGAIN.
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 AM
… rents to fund their diabolical plans for space colonies & eternal life. Of course it will all collapse & China will detach from the US. But trust me, these reports about a bubble are intentional. They are readying themselves to make us pay AGAIN.
… making geopolitical strategy & forcing US allies to embed them into their own infrastructure. We’ll all be tenants of US tech cos who will also run payment systems, own & manage Western data & will extract …
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 AM
… making geopolitical strategy & forcing US allies to embed them into their own infrastructure. We’ll all be tenants of US tech cos who will also run payment systems, own & manage Western data & will extract …
… the finance folk are stepping out ready to buy up distressed assets. The AI people are bleating about China in expectation of Gov subsidy / loans / QE. When the crash comes, you’ll be left with 3 or 4 mega tech companies, fused into the Gov …
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 AM
… the finance folk are stepping out ready to buy up distressed assets. The AI people are bleating about China in expectation of Gov subsidy / loans / QE. When the crash comes, you’ll be left with 3 or 4 mega tech companies, fused into the Gov …
… another bubble - cheap housing / dotcom / AI whatever. *Knowing* that when it collapses, the Gov will bail them out because they’re ’too big to fail’. Folks have been pointing out this strategy for AI for WEEKS. OpenAI have openly said they’ll need Gov help. So the plan is v simple …
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 AM
… another bubble - cheap housing / dotcom / AI whatever. *Knowing* that when it collapses, the Gov will bail them out because they’re ’too big to fail’. Folks have been pointing out this strategy for AI for WEEKS. OpenAI have openly said they’ll need Gov help. So the plan is v simple …
… players. They become monopolies. Collapsed *local* markets are bought up by multi nationals who are run by bankers. The bankers leverage up the whole system reducing profits & wages & pouring money into finance. But it’s still not enough. They’re still too greedy so they float …
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 AM
… players. They become monopolies. Collapsed *local* markets are bought up by multi nationals who are run by bankers. The bankers leverage up the whole system reducing profits & wages & pouring money into finance. But it’s still not enough. They’re still too greedy so they float …
… crash & of course, the big one - 2008. Each time, the old competitors are cleared out (small businesses in the 80s, industrial manufacturing through the 90s & small, regional banks in the noughties). Each time a massive inflow of cheap capital is directed at the remaining …
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 AM
… crash & of course, the big one - 2008. Each time, the old competitors are cleared out (small businesses in the 80s, industrial manufacturing through the 90s & small, regional banks in the noughties). Each time a massive inflow of cheap capital is directed at the remaining …
… the ‘Greenspan Put’ was all about using the money supply to refloat broken markets that collapsed in bubbles. Greenspan could do it because of global capital *inflows* lowering interest rates & cheap Asian labour suppressing inflation. They ran this pattern in the late 80s, after the dotcom …
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 AM
… the ‘Greenspan Put’ was all about using the money supply to refloat broken markets that collapsed in bubbles. Greenspan could do it because of global capital *inflows* lowering interest rates & cheap Asian labour suppressing inflation. They ran this pattern in the late 80s, after the dotcom …
Does no-one understand what’s happening here? Why d’yall think Dalio has been talking about a crash for the past 2 years? THEY WANT IT! You have to see the pattern to recognise the game. From the 1980s onwards, the US has not allowed crashes to re-organise its economy …
November 18, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Does no-one understand what’s happening here? Why d’yall think Dalio has been talking about a crash for the past 2 years? THEY WANT IT! You have to see the pattern to recognise the game. From the 1980s onwards, the US has not allowed crashes to re-organise its economy …
This is all about pre-arranging a bailout. They’ve bet the American economy on AI & they are using the China threat to secure funding for 3 or 4 colossal companies to essentially fuse with the state as a geopolitical tool. It’s all utterly crazy but this is the pattern in post 80s capitalism.
November 18, 2025 at 9:29 AM
This is all about pre-arranging a bailout. They’ve bet the American economy on AI & they are using the China threat to secure funding for 3 or 4 colossal companies to essentially fuse with the state as a geopolitical tool. It’s all utterly crazy but this is the pattern in post 80s capitalism.
Take a look at the response I just posted to OP. Our problem is that our ability to finance the state is reliant on bond markets & we are spending more than we receive in income. The only reason we can sustain this is bc foreign capital likes to dump itself in our lightly regulated capital markets.
November 16, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Take a look at the response I just posted to OP. Our problem is that our ability to finance the state is reliant on bond markets & we are spending more than we receive in income. The only reason we can sustain this is bc foreign capital likes to dump itself in our lightly regulated capital markets.
… they are not wrong to ask this. The question we must answer is how do we raise *genuine* incomes so people can afford to pay taxes & infrastructure improves etc etc? And the refugees are a tiny, tiny cost that a moral country should absorb. Always. But we can’t just say: we’re a rich country. 🤷🏻♀️
November 16, 2025 at 10:49 AM
… they are not wrong to ask this. The question we must answer is how do we raise *genuine* incomes so people can afford to pay taxes & infrastructure improves etc etc? And the refugees are a tiny, tiny cost that a moral country should absorb. Always. But we can’t just say: we’re a rich country. 🤷🏻♀️
… after a small rise in NICs? Because all the discretionary spending in the economy is driven by Gov spending & private credit - not income & wages. Reform voters see declining public infrastructure, lack of jobs, litter piled up etc & think - why is my life so precarious while they get *4 hotels?..
November 16, 2025 at 10:49 AM
… after a small rise in NICs? Because all the discretionary spending in the economy is driven by Gov spending & private credit - not income & wages. Reform voters see declining public infrastructure, lack of jobs, litter piled up etc & think - why is my life so precarious while they get *4 hotels?..
… are killing them. All this is structural. It’s baked into our economy because we are a safety deposit box for foreign capital not an industrial economy. So capital is sucked into asset markets & the state has to shore up demand / income with borrowing & subsidy. Why do you think jobs were lost …
November 16, 2025 at 10:49 AM
… are killing them. All this is structural. It’s baked into our economy because we are a safety deposit box for foreign capital not an industrial economy. So capital is sucked into asset markets & the state has to shore up demand / income with borrowing & subsidy. Why do you think jobs were lost …
… realise that much of it is based on state subsidy paid for with borrowing - healthcare, wagefare, pensions (the big one) which should be funded through taxation. But people can’t afford taxes because their finances are so tight. Many took on cheap credit after 2008 & rate rises …
November 16, 2025 at 10:49 AM
… realise that much of it is based on state subsidy paid for with borrowing - healthcare, wagefare, pensions (the big one) which should be funded through taxation. But people can’t afford taxes because their finances are so tight. Many took on cheap credit after 2008 & rate rises …
You see this is what isn’t explained. On PPP we’re actually just above former Soviet states & Southern Europe. But - we have way more debt than E Europe & we don’t have transfer payments from the EU. So we must support the state in bond markets. That median income looks ok until you …
November 16, 2025 at 10:49 AM
You see this is what isn’t explained. On PPP we’re actually just above former Soviet states & Southern Europe. But - we have way more debt than E Europe & we don’t have transfer payments from the EU. So we must support the state in bond markets. That median income looks ok until you …