Claire Hartnell
@cjhartnell.bsky.social
Mostly systems thinking, complexity, organisational anthropology but also far too much amygdala hijack stuff
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Substack: https://clairejhartnell.substack.com/
Pinned
The unkillable bird
Gaussian markets, power laws and the hyper cycle
open.substack.com
I wrote about the ‘unkillable birds’ that have been allowed to take over our system. We see our world as predictable and linear. We think small contingencies will protect us from the worst risks. They won’t. Here's why:
open.substack.com/pub/clairejh...
open.substack.com/pub/clairejh...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
1/8
NYT: "The biggest recipient of Chinese financing over the past two decades has been the United States, where Chinese banks have extended $200 billion in financial support to American companies and projects."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
NYT: "The biggest recipient of Chinese financing over the past two decades has been the United States, where Chinese banks have extended $200 billion in financial support to American companies and projects."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
Poor Countries Got $1 Trillion From China. So Did Rich Ones.
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:53 AM
1/8
NYT: "The biggest recipient of Chinese financing over the past two decades has been the United States, where Chinese banks have extended $200 billion in financial support to American companies and projects."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
NYT: "The biggest recipient of Chinese financing over the past two decades has been the United States, where Chinese banks have extended $200 billion in financial support to American companies and projects."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/b...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
A new Harvard study—the first large-scale comparison of Amazon, UPS & FedEx drivers—shows what worker power really means:
🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover.
🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers.
Same job. Different power.
Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E
🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover.
🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers.
Same job. Different power.
Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E
November 17, 2025 at 4:57 PM
A new Harvard study—the first large-scale comparison of Amazon, UPS & FedEx drivers—shows what worker power really means:
🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover.
🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers.
Same job. Different power.
Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E
🔴 Amazon: ~$19/hr, no raises, high turnover.
🟢 UPS (union): ~$35/hr, steady wage growth, long careers.
Same job. Different power.
Full study → buff.ly/rpn6H5E
Will they be yanking out their Gold teeth? This is too appalling for words👇
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Asylum seekers’ jewellery could be seized to pay for processing costs, says Home Office minister
Idea borrowed from Denmark is latest attempt to reduce number of people seeking asylum in UK
www.theguardian.com
November 17, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Will they be yanking out their Gold teeth? This is too appalling for words👇
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
The golden age of diversity and democracy in Oz.
November 16, 2025 at 7:04 AM
The golden age of diversity and democracy in Oz.
This is exactly right. Pettis takes such a beating because it’s comforting to think: global trade⬆️. Must be good. But open capital accounts undermine Ricardo. CA *should* rebalance the cost of labour through currency price. Instead labour is suppressed, currencies rise without exports, $$ debased:
10/10
Economists insist that "free trade" benefits a country whether or not its trade partners engage in free trade, but that's only because they assume balanced trade. Few understand that the arithmetic of comparative advantage only works when exports are used to pay for imports.
Economists insist that "free trade" benefits a country whether or not its trade partners engage in free trade, but that's only because they assume balanced trade. Few understand that the arithmetic of comparative advantage only works when exports are used to pay for imports.
November 16, 2025 at 7:39 AM
This is exactly right. Pettis takes such a beating because it’s comforting to think: global trade⬆️. Must be good. But open capital accounts undermine Ricardo. CA *should* rebalance the cost of labour through currency price. Instead labour is suppressed, currencies rise without exports, $$ debased:
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
7/10
Free trade, in other words, doesn't mean what we think it means in a global trading regime in which some major economies exert very limited control over their trade and (more importantly) capital accounts, while other major economies...
Free trade, in other words, doesn't mean what we think it means in a global trading regime in which some major economies exert very limited control over their trade and (more importantly) capital accounts, while other major economies...
November 16, 2025 at 5:56 AM
7/10
Free trade, in other words, doesn't mean what we think it means in a global trading regime in which some major economies exert very limited control over their trade and (more importantly) capital accounts, while other major economies...
Free trade, in other words, doesn't mean what we think it means in a global trading regime in which some major economies exert very limited control over their trade and (more importantly) capital accounts, while other major economies...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
2/10
"When global prices fail to reflect supply-and-demand dynamics," Steil cites Willkie as arguing, "they distort production and trade flows, killing off more efficient enterprises, fueling imbalances, and breeding resentment."
"When global prices fail to reflect supply-and-demand dynamics," Steil cites Willkie as arguing, "they distort production and trade flows, killing off more efficient enterprises, fueling imbalances, and breeding resentment."
November 16, 2025 at 5:56 AM
2/10
"When global prices fail to reflect supply-and-demand dynamics," Steil cites Willkie as arguing, "they distort production and trade flows, killing off more efficient enterprises, fueling imbalances, and breeding resentment."
"When global prices fail to reflect supply-and-demand dynamics," Steil cites Willkie as arguing, "they distort production and trade flows, killing off more efficient enterprises, fueling imbalances, and breeding resentment."
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
There was unauthorised movement out of Nazi Germany by Jews, there is unauthorised movement out of North Korea, so there is always going to be some unauthorised movement - you can reduce it by increasing the risk of doing it (we've done this quite a bit - we stopped the lorries, hence the boats).
November 16, 2025 at 12:47 AM
There was unauthorised movement out of Nazi Germany by Jews, there is unauthorised movement out of North Korea, so there is always going to be some unauthorised movement - you can reduce it by increasing the risk of doing it (we've done this quite a bit - we stopped the lorries, hence the boats).
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
3/The mistreatment of women in economics has long been an open secret. I have felt the obligation to discuss sexism in the profession with every female graduate student I have had starting as an Assistant Professor to this day.
November 15, 2025 at 4:32 PM
3/The mistreatment of women in economics has long been an open secret. I have felt the obligation to discuss sexism in the profession with every female graduate student I have had starting as an Assistant Professor to this day.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
“Interested in my commentary on her outfits.” I absolutely guarantee she was not.
November 15, 2025 at 11:15 PM
“Interested in my commentary on her outfits.” I absolutely guarantee she was not.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
It is so notable how the language of asylum has changed in the post-Farage/small boats world. “Illegal migrants” was once reserved for right wing papers, Now government spokespeople call basic sustenance and shelter for refugees banned from working “handouts”.
November 15, 2025 at 11:28 PM
It is so notable how the language of asylum has changed in the post-Farage/small boats world. “Illegal migrants” was once reserved for right wing papers, Now government spokespeople call basic sustenance and shelter for refugees banned from working “handouts”.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
What a waste of vote! A very disappointed Labour supporter. ❤️🇪🇺
Home Secretary to quadruple qualification period for settlement to 20 years for asylum seekers arriving illegally
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Shabana Mahmood: ‘Illegal migration is tearing Britain apart’
The home secretary is planning to introduce a 20-year wait for permanent stay to end a ‘golden ticket’ for asylum seekers
www.thetimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 11:36 PM
What a waste of vote! A very disappointed Labour supporter. ❤️🇪🇺
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
To suggest that having lived a life so grim that even an English tribunal will grant you asylum, and to have somehow managed to get here at great risk to life, is a "golden ticket" is absolutely fucking contemptible. Shame on this so-called Labour Party.
November 15, 2025 at 11:47 PM
To suggest that having lived a life so grim that even an English tribunal will grant you asylum, and to have somehow managed to get here at great risk to life, is a "golden ticket" is absolutely fucking contemptible. Shame on this so-called Labour Party.
This is inevitable👇 We cannot tax, spend, borrow or print. All these things will exacerbate our problems. So what’s left? Selling off land & assets. To fund production (see China)? No to pay for debt & wagefare. This, not Suez, is the end of empire. We are selling ourselves to foreign capital:
English councils plan to sell off social clubs and sports centres to balance books.
Social spaces lost forever. Libraries, community centres, school playgrounds, parks closed/sold as council funding cut in real terms to appease the rich.
Social vandalism.
Social spaces lost forever. Libraries, community centres, school playgrounds, parks closed/sold as council funding cut in real terms to appease the rich.
Social vandalism.
English councils plan to sell off social clubs and sports centres to balance books
Survey finds 60% of key cities councils are planning to sell assets to meet costs of adult and children’s social care
www.theguardian.com
November 15, 2025 at 11:25 AM
This is inevitable👇 We cannot tax, spend, borrow or print. All these things will exacerbate our problems. So what’s left? Selling off land & assets. To fund production (see China)? No to pay for debt & wagefare. This, not Suez, is the end of empire. We are selling ourselves to foreign capital:
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Have any of the unions said a damn thing about this corporate coup? @tuc.org.uk @unison.org.uk @unitetheunion.bsky.social
On 13 January 2025, Keir Starmer announced his flagship policy for Britain’s “AI revolution”: AI Growth Zones.
⚠️WARNING ⚠️
These zones are deregulated corporate playgrounds. Communities pay for soaring bills, environmental devastation, with zero democratic say.
open.substack.com/pub/european...
⚠️WARNING ⚠️
These zones are deregulated corporate playgrounds. Communities pay for soaring bills, environmental devastation, with zero democratic say.
open.substack.com/pub/european...
Labour’s AI Growth Zones: The Corporate Land Grab Disguised as Innovation
How Starmer’s government is carving up Britain into deregulated fiefdoms for Big Tech, without asking a single community
open.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 9:24 AM
Have any of the unions said a damn thing about this corporate coup? @tuc.org.uk @unison.org.uk @unitetheunion.bsky.social
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
A whole lot of people are asking "why are billionaires and demagogues like this?", and it's just possible we've been overthinking it.
Adolf Hitler had genetic disorder that can result in a micro-penis
Researchers say Hitler may have never had sex due to the condition.
metro.co.uk
November 13, 2025 at 8:25 AM
A whole lot of people are asking "why are billionaires and demagogues like this?", and it's just possible we've been overthinking it.
JD Vance speaking like a 12 year old who finally got invited to the rich, popular kid’s birthday party & still doesn’t know he’s picked last for every team👇
JD Vance: "I don't know if you saw this media circulating on social media, but the president met the president of Syria, al-Sharaa, in the Oval Office a couple of days ago, and he asked him, 'How many wives do you have?' Heh heh heh heh heh! Haaaaaa! Amazing comedic timing."
November 13, 2025 at 6:18 AM
JD Vance speaking like a 12 year old who finally got invited to the rich, popular kid’s birthday party & still doesn’t know he’s picked last for every team👇
To be clear, what we are seeing here is an oscillation. This happens when robust networks break down as the point of equilibrium in phase space moves. There is no going backwards here. There will be fracturing, reorganisation, novelty injection & discovery of a new equilibrium👇
On a more serious note: British politics have been in crisis mode for ten years and this is a real problem whatever your politics. It undermines trust in government and democracy, fuels populism, and makes the UK an unstable partner at a time when the geopolitical situation is very dangerous.
The important story behind this story is that someone in Downing Street is having a breakdown:
November 12, 2025 at 7:44 AM
To be clear, what we are seeing here is an oscillation. This happens when robust networks break down as the point of equilibrium in phase space moves. There is no going backwards here. There will be fracturing, reorganisation, novelty injection & discovery of a new equilibrium👇
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
@gilesyb.bsky.social we are so close to chinas emissions declining. Two exponential processes of solar roll out and gdp growth perfectly balanced for an instant before one dominates the other.
China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months, starting in March 2024.
This trend continued in the third quarter of 2025, when emissions were unchanged year-on-year.
If this trend starts to move into sustained carbon emissions reduction it would be hugely significant.
This trend continued in the third quarter of 2025, when emissions were unchanged year-on-year.
If this trend starts to move into sustained carbon emissions reduction it would be hugely significant.
November 11, 2025 at 9:09 PM
@gilesyb.bsky.social we are so close to chinas emissions declining. Two exponential processes of solar roll out and gdp growth perfectly balanced for an instant before one dominates the other.
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
This is absolutely nuts
Trump did incite the January 6 riot. Splicing a video to make that point is shoddy editorial but hardly a resignation event
When BBC is needed more than ever, Telegraph/Boris Johnson running the show
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd...
Trump did incite the January 6 riot. Splicing a video to make that point is shoddy editorial but hardly a resignation event
When BBC is needed more than ever, Telegraph/Boris Johnson running the show
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd...
BBC director general Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness resign over Trump documentary edit
Davie says
www.bbc.co.uk
November 9, 2025 at 6:12 PM
This is absolutely nuts
Trump did incite the January 6 riot. Splicing a video to make that point is shoddy editorial but hardly a resignation event
When BBC is needed more than ever, Telegraph/Boris Johnson running the show
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd...
Trump did incite the January 6 riot. Splicing a video to make that point is shoddy editorial but hardly a resignation event
When BBC is needed more than ever, Telegraph/Boris Johnson running the show
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
Here’s a fascinating question👇 why can’t we afford electrified railways when we *can* afford huge electrified SUVs? The answer speaks to the hidden system that supports our economy:🧵
We can’t afford to do what every other country did years ago for our railways, but people need to drive their kids to school in a tank
Govt scraps all electrification investment. Midland Main Line to stay forever diesel Leicester Nottingham Derby Sheffield. Hugely embarrassing and inexplicable
www.ft.com/content/5ecd...
www.ft.com/content/5ecd...
November 9, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Here’s a fascinating question👇 why can’t we afford electrified railways when we *can* afford huge electrified SUVs? The answer speaks to the hidden system that supports our economy:🧵
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
"A key difference btwn the AI buildout & the Internet buildout leading up to the DotCom Bubble. During the Internet buildout, capex significantly outstripped cash flows.
Today it’s reversed mainly bc the mega cap tech “hyperscalers” are also wildly profitable"-Steve Hou
www.ft.com/content/2490...
Today it’s reversed mainly bc the mega cap tech “hyperscalers” are also wildly profitable"-Steve Hou
www.ft.com/content/2490...
November 9, 2025 at 6:48 AM
"A key difference btwn the AI buildout & the Internet buildout leading up to the DotCom Bubble. During the Internet buildout, capex significantly outstripped cash flows.
Today it’s reversed mainly bc the mega cap tech “hyperscalers” are also wildly profitable"-Steve Hou
www.ft.com/content/2490...
Today it’s reversed mainly bc the mega cap tech “hyperscalers” are also wildly profitable"-Steve Hou
www.ft.com/content/2490...
Reposted by Claire Hartnell
“The elites are ecstatic about imagining a vast, uneducated, and unproductive population forced to pay companies like OpenAI to access the written word and to approximate thought.”
Must read piece by Noah McCormack with too many quotaboe lines to select one! thebaffler.com/salvos/we-us...
Must read piece by Noah McCormack with too many quotaboe lines to select one! thebaffler.com/salvos/we-us...
We Used to Read Things in This Country | Noah McCormack
Technology changes us—and it is currently changing us for the worse.
thebaffler.com
November 2, 2025 at 5:12 PM
“The elites are ecstatic about imagining a vast, uneducated, and unproductive population forced to pay companies like OpenAI to access the written word and to approximate thought.”
Must read piece by Noah McCormack with too many quotaboe lines to select one! thebaffler.com/salvos/we-us...
Must read piece by Noah McCormack with too many quotaboe lines to select one! thebaffler.com/salvos/we-us...