Hans Kristensen
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nukestrat.bsky.social
Hans Kristensen
@nukestrat.bsky.social

Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, co-author of Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own.
Website: https://fas.org/initiative/nuclear-information-project/ .. more

Hans Møller Kristensen is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. He writes about nuclear weapons policy there; he is coauthor of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and the World Nuclear Forces appendix in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's annual SIPRI Yearbook. .. more

Political science 75%
Engineering 9%
Pinned
🥁Our latest Nuclear Notebook is public: Pakistan Nuclear Weapons, 2025. It describes developments for missile launchers, cruise missiles, and aircraft. Published in the @BulletinAtomic and available for free in PDF www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.... and web format thebulletin.org/premium/2025...

In addition to pardoning over 1,000 who attacked Congress in 2021, including hundreds who assaulted police officers, corrupt Trump has now also pardoned a long list of allies and false electors who helped him try to overturn the 2020 presidential election. www.politico.com/news/2025/11...
Trump pardons top allies who aided bid to subvert the 2020 election
Pardon recipients include Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, John Eastman and dozens more.
www.politico.com

Thank much! Keep the good reporting coming!

On all fronts, the Trump regime is breaking things, rolling back science, medical, legal, social, educational standards, misinforming, lying, sabotaging, creating chaos, splitting people against each other…and fighting environmental protection. www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
U.S. skips COP30 climate conference, lobbies to sink new global deals
The Trump administration is using lobbying and economic threats to thwart emissions-cutting and environmental initiatives around the world.
www.washingtonpost.com

Honored to see our nuclear arsenal data used in this Newsweek article. www.newsweek.com/how-us-nucle...

You can find the original and more here on the FAS web site: fas.org/initiative/n...
How US nuclear weapons compare to Russia and China after new missile tests
U.S. President Donald Trump said he might be working to denuclearize with Russia and China.
www.newsweek.com

Plus how does missile defense help ensure SSBN survivability?

Yes, there doesn’t seem to be any grand strategy. It’s just enhance capabilities, enhance capabilities. As for claim mission of MD is to secure retaliatory capability, that sounds like throwing spagetti against the wall to see what sticks.

In confirmation hearing for VADM Correll as new STRATCOM head, part of mission of Golden Dome missile defense is to “guarantee a second strike capability.” A tall order since China’s current nuke buildup is already partly a response to such defenses. www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/to-...

Excellent discussion between Charles Glaser and Austin Long on damage limitation in counterforce nuclear strategy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/debating-d... Central to debate on whether US needs to increase nuclear arsenal because China is.
Debating Damage Limitation
Charlie Glaser joins us to reprise a recent debate on damage limitation
strategicsimplicity.substack.com

But apparently Putin didn’t quite endorse that but decided to buy time by studying if it would be a good idea.

I spoke with Defense News about Trump’s irresponsible nuclear testing threat. www.defensenews.com/global/the-a...
Experts: Full nuclear weapons tests would backfire on US
Experts agreed if the U.S. resumed full nuclear weapons tests, other nations would do the same — giving them a chance to catch up on nuclear knowledge.
www.defensenews.com

USAF test-launched an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM into the Pacific. Missile delivered single Mk21 reentry vehicle. www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil/News/Article...

This is the missile military lied could not be life-extended but now has to be extended through 2050: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....
www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil

Hi David. Ha, great anecdote. But in a real crisis I wonder if incidents like that could influence perception of threat and reaction.
☢️ #NuclearPoliticsParadox No.26
💻 Technology isn't a cure-all. But it can help reduce the risk of #NuclearWeapons crises.
🔍 @jamiewithorne.bsky.social shows how increasingly accessible information can harness transparency and 'fact check' the credibility of nuclear threats.
👉 bit.ly/4qEPq29
☢️ Using emerging technology for escalation management
Technology is not a cure-all. But it can help reduce the risk of nuclear weapons crises. Jamie Withorne shows how increasingly accessible information can harness transparency and 'fact check' the cred...
bit.ly

Lots of tankers, recon, command and control aircraft over the United States tonight. Bombers don’t track. Wonder if it’s part of the culmination of STRATCOM exercise Global Thunder. Tonight/early morning also has scheduled Minuteman III ICBM launch.

A US B-52 apparently conducted a flight test of new long-range (unarmed) nuclear cruise missile (LRSO). Photos who two missiles under the wing. Report below.

LRSO will arm both B-52 and B-21 bombers from the end of this decade.

More about US nukes here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

Some time today, an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM is scheduled to launch from Vandenberg AFB into the Pacific. www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil/News/Article...

No, this is not related to Trump’s statement about nuclear tests.
www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil

The nuke testing part of the CBS interview with Trump is quite a read. He’s starting from intel reports that China/Rus have done very low yield test experiments, claims all others are testing, and doesn’t seem to know what US is doing. www.cbsnews.com/news/read-fu...
Read the full transcript of Norah O'Donnell's interview with President Trump here.
Read the full transcript of Norah O'Donnell's interview with President Trump here.
www.cbsnews.com

Even though Congress has already appropriated nearly $25 billion to get Golden Dome started, “the holistic architecture hasn’t been shared with anyone in industry at this point.” spacenews.com/golden-dome-...
Golden Dome hype meets information vacuum as industry awaits Pentagon direction
Golden Dome hype meets information vacuum as industry awaits Pentagon direction Golden Dome hype meets information vacuum as industry awaits Pentagon direction
spacenews.com

Authoritarians hate accountability. So the Trump regime kicks news media out of the Pentagon and lets the conspiracists in.
NEW >>

Laura Loomer, the far-right activist has been credentialed to cover the Pentagon after signing its new press policy. She has repeatedly criticized defense officials while boasting of her close ties to Trump.

with @drewharwell.com for @washingtonpost.com
Laura Loomer is now credentialed to cover the Pentagon
The far-right activist has repeatedly criticized defense officials on her website and social media accounts while boasting of her close ties to President Donald Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com
NEW >>

Laura Loomer, the far-right activist has been credentialed to cover the Pentagon after signing its new press policy. She has repeatedly criticized defense officials while boasting of her close ties to Trump.

with @drewharwell.com for @washingtonpost.com
Laura Loomer is now credentialed to cover the Pentagon
The far-right activist has repeatedly criticized defense officials on her website and social media accounts while boasting of her close ties to President Donald Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com

Tom Pepinsky with big conclusions: The United States is disintegrating and no longer a leader in Asia. Allies and partners must prepare for a future in which the United States cannot lead, regardless of who is in power. eastasiaforum.org/2025/11/02/a...
A United States that is disintegrating and no longer a leader in Asia
As Trump 2.0 hollows out US state capacity, the Asia Pacific must prepare for a world without US leadership
eastasiaforum.org

I’ve learned to be careful about saying Trump administration officials “know” something, but the tests are noncritical. Ever since the first Trump there has been chatter about shortening test readiness so that if… But there’s no technical or military reason to test, so this all Trump circus for now.

Three days after Trump created a storm of confusion and concern by announcing he had directed Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons, Secretary of Energy finally clarifies US tests are”noncritical” that don’t produce a nuclear explosion. apnews.com/article/trum...
Trump's testing plans for US nuclear weapons won't include explosions, energy secretary says
Energy Secretary Chris Wright says that new tests of the U.S. nuclear weapons system ordered up by President Donald Trump will not include nuclear explosions.
apnews.com

A Russia Special Flight Squadron aircraft (RA96014) has just landed in Hangzhou, China. Two more (RA96024 and RA96025) appear to be on their way.

Indian Navy P-8 returning from operations east of Maldives.

Reposted by Matthew Bunn

Well, whad’ya know. Russia allegedly launched missile with a range it said it didn’t have.

Reuters cites sources in the Ukraine FM saying 23 9M729 GLCMs were fired since August and more back in 2022. Missile violated INF treaty and caused US to pull out. www.reuters.com/business/aer...
www.reuters.com

The US Air Force appears to be gearing up for a test-launch of an (unarmed) Minuteman III ICBM into the Pacific. Although not directly related, the test comes days after Trump said he had ordered US military to start testing nukes.
1/x
Navigational Warnings have appeared that point to the (unarmed) test #launch of a US #Minuteman-III #ICBM from Vandenberg targetting the Ronald Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein, Nov 5-6

Reposted by Hans M. Kristensen

1/x
Navigational Warnings have appeared that point to the (unarmed) test #launch of a US #Minuteman-III #ICBM from Vandenberg targetting the Ronald Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein, Nov 5-6

Thousands of federal workers were fired by the Trump regime to "improve government efficiency." So here is the NNSA announcing a milestone for the new W80-4 cruise missile warhead...with a picture of the old B83 nuclear bomb that has been retired. www.energy.gov/nnsa/article...

🤷🏼‍♂️