Academic @walesgovernance.bsky.social (Wales Governance Centre) and Cardiff University’s School of Law and Politics.
Daniel Edward Wincott FLSW is the Blackwell Law and Society Chair at Cardiff Law School, a position he has held since September 2008.
REF: 30%
PC: 19%
LLAF/LAB: 15%
GWYRDD/GRN: 14%
CEID/CON: 13%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 8%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N = 1,954
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
REF: 30%
PC: 19%
LLAF/LAB: 15%
GWYRDD/GRN: 14%
CEID/CON: 13%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 8%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N = 1,954
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
You can read the report - written by the leading experts on these matters - here:
nihrc.org/publication/...
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
Reposted by Chris Hanretty, Jane Green, Daniel Wincott , and 1 more Chris Hanretty, Jane Green, Daniel Wincott, Stuart White
Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?
@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
There has been a lot of talk about Reform being really effective at reaching young people.
However this polling suggests that just 5% of those aged 18 - 24 would vote for them.
@willhaycardiff.bsky.social thread digging into the @walesgovernance.bsky.social poll.
Could change as people get older, of course. But underscores that ‘muscular unionism’ is somewhere between a self-limiting and self-defeating politics outside England.
Reposted by Steve Peers, Daniel Wincott
There has been a lot of talk about Reform being really effective at reaching young people.
However this polling suggests that just 5% of those aged 18 - 24 would vote for them.
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by Tim Bale, Daniel Wincott
PC: 33%
REF: 30%
LLAF/LAB: 10%
CEID/CON: 10%
GWYRDD/GRN: 9%
DEM RHYDD/LD: 6%
ERAILL/OTH: 2%
N=1,891
Ein dadansoddiad ni / Our analysis: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
🚨Arolwg barn terfynol YouGov/Prifysgol Caerdydd ar gyfer 2025 - Bwriad Pleidleisio Senedd i'w gyhoeddi fore Mercher🚨
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
NEW: New analysis from the Wales Fiscal Analysis on the Welsh Governmentt - Plaid Cymru Budget Deal:
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
The recording ofour 2025 Annual Lecture by Prof. Sir John Curtice of @unistrathclyde.bsky.social is now on YouTube
👇 'Can Devolution Survive the UK's New Politics?' #Senedd26
Was considering having a listen. Should probably still try at least one. I’ll treat myself to the Stone of Destiny
Over a third of Welsh Labour Senedd Members have written to Keir Starmer to stop undermining devolution.
They say:
"If this was being done by a Tory Government, we would be calling for a judicial review. This must never happen again."
1/2
Reposted by Aileen McHarg, Daniel Wincott, Nick Hubble
Over a third of Welsh Labour Senedd Members have written to Keir Starmer to stop undermining devolution.
They say:
"If this was being done by a Tory Government, we would be calling for a judicial review. This must never happen again."
1/2
It's estimated to be 10.8 per cent of GDP this financial year.
That's just 0.8 per cent of GDP higher than in 2007-08, and total welfare spending has actually fallen fallen by 1.2 per cent of GDP since 2012-13⤵️ buff.ly/s5mz97u
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
Some amazing scholars critically think what “global” & “governance” mean in & how ideologies shape institutions & frameworks that claim to address global challenges
1/4
www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/res...
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
Railways are large capital intensive infrastructure with very significant market failures - few things manage to be both natural monopolies and public goods with extensive externalities.
Ownership doesn't really change the fundamentals. Private monopolies and public monopolies same same..
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
common law country in the world to have its own legislature and executive without its own justice system.” 1/2
Reposted by Daniel Wincott
It gets cited (a lot!) so editors who should know better let it through.
Reposted by Daniel Wincott, Paul Nightingale
I call it: "The "Nexus" Nexus" 😅
Recipe
🟢 Pick 1 econ var
🟢 Pick 2+ "green" vars
🟢 Pick 3+ methods (unit root, cointegration, Granger causality, GMM, ECM, FMOLS, PMG, PVAR, wavelet)
🟢 Misinterpret results
🟢 Make absurd policy recommendations
Rinse & repeat!
