European Inflation Slows, Fed Warns
2h
Inflation slowed in Europe in January: France’s consumer prices rose 0.3% year-on-year and U.K. inflation fell to 3%, while U.S. Fed officials warned progress toward 2% could be uneven.
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...goods inflation fell from 2.2% to 1.6% and services from 4.5% to 4.3%.
Coming on the heels of yesterday’s higher-than-expected unemployment figures and softer wage data, today's numbers reinforce the likelihood that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.
#economy #inflation #uk
Coming on the heels of yesterday’s higher-than-expected unemployment figures and softer wage data, today's numbers reinforce the likelihood that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.
#economy #inflation #uk
February 18, 2026 at 7:23 AM
...goods inflation fell from 2.2% to 1.6% and services from 4.5% to 4.3%.
Coming on the heels of yesterday’s higher-than-expected unemployment figures and softer wage data, today's numbers reinforce the likelihood that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.
#economy #inflation #uk
Coming on the heels of yesterday’s higher-than-expected unemployment figures and softer wage data, today's numbers reinforce the likelihood that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.
#economy #inflation #uk
Headline PCE inflation, which is what the FOMC claims to care about, was at 2.8% in November. Best guess is that, when the level effects of tariffs go away, PCE inflation will be at or below 2%. So, no need to do much here.
Fed officials warn progress towards inflation goal will be ‘uneven’ ft.trib.al/92sUTsn
Fed officials warn progress towards inflation goal will be ‘uneven’
Minutes from January meeting show US policymakers saw risk that price growth will remain above 2%
ft.trib.al
February 18, 2026 at 7:54 PM
Headline PCE inflation, which is what the FOMC claims to care about, was at 2.8% in November. Best guess is that, when the level effects of tariffs go away, PCE inflation will be at or below 2%. So, no need to do much here.
The just-released UK inflation numbers are broadly in line with the consensus forecasts
The headline annual rate cooled from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January, the lowest since March 2025, while the core measure eased from 3.5% to 3.3%.
The decline in the inflation rate was quite broad-based as..
The headline annual rate cooled from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January, the lowest since March 2025, while the core measure eased from 3.5% to 3.3%.
The decline in the inflation rate was quite broad-based as..
February 18, 2026 at 7:22 AM
The just-released UK inflation numbers are broadly in line with the consensus forecasts
The headline annual rate cooled from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January, the lowest since March 2025, while the core measure eased from 3.5% to 3.3%.
The decline in the inflation rate was quite broad-based as..
The headline annual rate cooled from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January, the lowest since March 2025, while the core measure eased from 3.5% to 3.3%.
The decline in the inflation rate was quite broad-based as..
#Russia January 12-month inflation 6.0% (was 5.6%)
Food 5.9% (5.2%)
Non-food goods 3.2% (3.0%)
Services 9.6% (9.3%)
Hiking VAT rate by 2 pp and higher utility prices lifting inflation.
Food 5.9% (5.2%)
Non-food goods 3.2% (3.0%)
Services 9.6% (9.3%)
Hiking VAT rate by 2 pp and higher utility prices lifting inflation.
February 18, 2026 at 2:51 PM
#Russia January 12-month inflation 6.0% (was 5.6%)
Food 5.9% (5.2%)
Non-food goods 3.2% (3.0%)
Services 9.6% (9.3%)
Hiking VAT rate by 2 pp and higher utility prices lifting inflation.
Food 5.9% (5.2%)
Non-food goods 3.2% (3.0%)
Services 9.6% (9.3%)
Hiking VAT rate by 2 pp and higher utility prices lifting inflation.
Reposted by Greg Linden, Simon Hix, Markus Haverland , and 1 more Greg Linden, Simon Hix, Markus Haverland, John R. Hutchinson
New data shows #Brexit has lowered UK GDP by 6-8% over the past decade. Investment down 12-18%, employment down 3-4%. It's even worse than economists had predicted pre-referendum, because they thought there would be a bounce-back long term. "Economists were roughly right on the
Brexit’s slow‑burn hit to the UK economy
The UK is once again debating why its economy has grown slowly since the mid‑2010s. This column examines the impact of the decision to leave the European Union in 2016. Using almost a decade of data s...
cepr.org
February 18, 2026 at 6:02 AM
New data shows #Brexit has lowered UK GDP by 6-8% over the past decade. Investment down 12-18%, employment down 3-4%. It's even worse than economists had predicted pre-referendum, because they thought there would be a bounce-back long term. "Economists were roughly right on the
"Inflation and exchange rate pass-through" is available at the Journal of International Money and Finance: doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin....
February 18, 2026 at 10:00 AM
"Inflation and exchange rate pass-through" is available at the Journal of International Money and Finance: doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin....
by Linda Yueh
...
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
February 17, 2026 at 1:45 PM
...
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
This morning’s data will increase pressure on a government that is already under pressure.
As for the Bank of England, the numbers provide encouragement to cut rates, especially as they were accompanied by a fall to 3.4% in the growth of private-sector wages.
#economy #uk #unemployment #wages
...headline inflation (which supports lower yields) is offset by considerations calling for higher yields (including robust GDP growth, January’s jobs beat, large deficits, higher oil prices, and less resilient foreign demand)
Standard valuation models also struggle to justify a 4% yield.
...
2 of 3
Standard valuation models also struggle to justify a 4% yield.
...
2 of 3
February 17, 2026 at 12:51 PM
...headline inflation (which supports lower yields) is offset by considerations calling for higher yields (including robust GDP growth, January’s jobs beat, large deficits, higher oil prices, and less resilient foreign demand)
Standard valuation models also struggle to justify a 4% yield.
...
2 of 3
Standard valuation models also struggle to justify a 4% yield.
...
2 of 3
Reposted by Menzie Chinn
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data, @newyorkfed.org 's latest
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data - Liberty Street Economics
A look at the changes in underlying inflation over the past four months using the New York Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation model.
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
February 17, 2026 at 1:45 PM
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data, @newyorkfed.org 's latest
Reposted by Michael J. Hicks
What do CEOs think inflation will be? According to the Survey of Firms’ #Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), CEOs expect CPI inflation will be 3.1% over the next 12 months. According to SoFIE results, this estimate has ranged between 3-4% since Jan 2024. See: clefed.org/SoFIE
February 17, 2026 at 6:41 PM
What do CEOs think inflation will be? According to the Survey of Firms’ #Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), CEOs expect CPI inflation will be 3.1% over the next 12 months. According to SoFIE results, this estimate has ranged between 3-4% since Jan 2024. See: clefed.org/SoFIE
What is the speed of inflation convergence across European countries? The answer is in this publication: doi.org/10.1111/infi.12407
February 17, 2026 at 3:30 PM
What is the speed of inflation convergence across European countries? The answer is in this publication: doi.org/10.1111/infi.12407
Reposted by Tim Leunig
Another drop in London house prices plus the slowest private rent growth in the country according to the ONS.
TfL data has passenger journeys down by 4% year on year as of October 25.
Given the wider migration picture - doesn’t this all point to London’s population falling?
TfL data has passenger journeys down by 4% year on year as of October 25.
Given the wider migration picture - doesn’t this all point to London’s population falling?
February 18, 2026 at 1:29 PM
Another drop in London house prices plus the slowest private rent growth in the country according to the ONS.
TfL data has passenger journeys down by 4% year on year as of October 25.
Given the wider migration picture - doesn’t this all point to London’s population falling?
TfL data has passenger journeys down by 4% year on year as of October 25.
Given the wider migration picture - doesn’t this all point to London’s population falling?