Linda Yueh
@lindayueh.bsky.social
Economist at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford & London Business School
Author of The #GreatCrashes & #GreatEconomists
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/024198808X/
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/lindayueh
IG: instagram.com/lindayueh
W: www.lindayueh.com ..
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Economist at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford & London Business School
Author of The #GreatCrashes & #GreatEconomists
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/024198808X/
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/lindayueh
IG: instagram.com/lindayueh
W: www.lindayueh.com
Linda Yi-Chuang Yueh is a Taiwanese-born British-American economist, lawyer, broadcaster, and author. Yueh is an adjunct professor of economics at London Business School, and a fellow in economics at St Edmund Hall, Oxford University. She was also a visiting professor at Peking University and associated with both the Centre for Economic Performance and IDEAS research centres at the London School of Economics (LSE). .. more
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Linda Yueh
@lindayueh.bsky.social
· May 11
The Great Economists and The Great Crashes are both economic history books that draw lessons from history to help with current challenges and opportunities
www.lindayueh.com/books
www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Econom...
www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Crashe...
www.lindayueh.com/books
www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Econom...
www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Crashe...
The US-China rare earths deal shows the importance of critical materials in a new era of strategic interdependence | USAPP
As resource competition sharpens, resilience and innovation will be key to navigating this new era of strategic interdependence.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Research @cep-lse.bsky.social
Rare earth elements are not geologically scarce. They could be mined more widely especially where environmental regulations are less stringent. China is largest rare-earth miner but its exports account for only ~1/3rd of global demand
blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...
Rare earth elements are not geologically scarce. They could be mined more widely especially where environmental regulations are less stringent. China is largest rare-earth miner but its exports account for only ~1/3rd of global demand
blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...
Research by @cep-lse.bsky.social
By the teenage years, more than half of the work penalty is explained by mothers’ need to be present and available, not by direct caregiving.
cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICA...
By the teenage years, more than half of the work penalty is explained by mothers’ need to be present and available, not by direct caregiving.
cep.lse.ac.uk/_NEW/PUBLICA...
The most severe events reduce GDP in a region directly affected by a disaster by up to 2.2% relative to trend, with losses of around 1.7% persisting after five years
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Data, power and emissions: How AI’s growth may slow down the green transition
AI and other data-intensive technologies may help optimise energy use, but the technologies themselves are power hungry. This column explores how the diffusion of AI affected emissions in the US between 2002 and 2022 and finds that local AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shift from renewable to non-renewable sources. The ‘green’ promise of AI will remain elusive as long as the electricity sector itself does not rapidly decarbonise.
cepr.org
In the US between 2002-2022 research finds that local AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shift from renewable to non-renewable sources.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The hidden cycle: How informality shapes fiscal policy and sovereign default
The informal sector tends to expand during economic downturns and contract in recoveries, and is also highly sensitive to fiscal policy. This column explores the impact of these informality dynamics on optimal fiscal policy and the risk of sovereign default. The interaction of tax distortions and limited commitment to reimburse sovereign debt strongly constrains the dynamics of optimal fiscal policy and leads to more frequent default episodes and costly consumption fluctuations. Toning down the impact of fiscal policy on future returns to taxation or tempering the threat of default would both lead to welfare gains and more muted consumption fluctuations.
cepr.org
The informal sector tends to expand during economic downturns and contract in recoveries, and is also highly sensitive to fiscal policy.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
When debt perceptions shape fiscal futures
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut. A smaller group of wealthier and more experienced voters demonstrates a stronger grasp of fiscal realities. Yet all groups share a common concern: that debt stabilisation efforts will disproportionately penalise them. These findings reveal how misinformation and memory shape the politics of debt – and why fixing fiscal policy may first require fixing public perception.
cepr.org
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, research finds that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
2/ At the onset of conflict, the drop is modest (≈3.3%), but then the contraction deepens to about 16% after ten years. Consumption and investment fall sharply; exports fall by 12% and imports by 7%; and the current account deteriorates by around US $2.1 billion.
The lasting economic scars of war
Wars leave deep and lasting scars on economies. Using data for 115 conflicts across 145 countries over the past 75 years, this column documents large and persistent declines in output, investment, and trade following the onset of war, with no evidence of recovery even a decade later. Government revenues collapse while spending remains stable, forcing reliance on inflationary finance and short-term debt. The findings show that the true cost of war extends far beyond the battlefield, reshaping fiscal and monetary stability for years to come.
cepr.org
1/ GDP collapses from war – and does not recover
Real GDP falls by about 12% (on average) over 10 years for treated countries relative to control countries
Loss of more than $28 billion (in 2015 prices).
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Real GDP falls by about 12% (on average) over 10 years for treated countries relative to control countries
Loss of more than $28 billion (in 2015 prices).
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Fixed and necessary expenditures grew, but the household expenditure ratio decreased between 2019 and 2023 in the Netherlands
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
China’s shrinking oil footprint: How electric vehicle adoption is shaping China’s oil consumption
Between 2005 and 2024, China more than doubled its oil consumption, accounting for over half of the global increase in oil demand during that period. But in 2024 Chinese annual oil demand declined for the first time in twenty years. This column develops a dynamic model which suggests that the rapid adoption of electric vehicles in China has been a major driver of this trend. In 2024 alone, EV diffusion displaced about 0.43 million barrels per day of gasoline, and this figure could quadruple by 2040 with an accelerated transition.
cepr.org
Between 2005 and 2024, China more than doubled its oil consumption, accounting for over half of the global increase in oil demand during that period. But in 2024 Chinese annual oil demand declined for the first time in twenty years.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Reposted by Mary Corcoran
From the China Shock to the global relocation of production: Inequality consequences
Globalisation has raised living standards worldwide but has also fuelled concerns that international competition is eroding middle-class incomes and widening inequality within countries. The column shows that the international relocation of production – the shift of export capacity from higher- to lower-income economies – systematically increases within-country income inequality in the countries that originally specialised in relocated products by compressing the income shares of the middle deciles and raising the top share.
cepr.org
Across advanced democracies, voters in regions most exposed to import competition have become more likely to support parties sceptical of openness & multilateralism, and governments in those regions have increasingly embraced protectionist or nationalist industrial policies
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
How AI can help detect warning signs of financial market stress
Predicting financial market stress is a significant challenge, as traditional models often fail to capture complex and nonlinear dynamics. This column highlights two recent advances in the use of AI tools to anticipate financial market stress. The first is a novel framework using machine learning to predict financial market stress and explain the main factors driving predictions. The second integrates numerical data with textual information using large language models to forecast market stress and identify its underlying drivers. Policymakers can use these tools to monitor emerging risks in real time, combining quantitative forecasts with qualitative insights from financial news and commentary.
cepr.org
Financial market stress can take many forms, including liquidity shortages, price dislocations, breakdowns in arbitrage relationships. Events such as the 1998 LTCM crisis, 2008-09 global crisis, 2020 ‘dash for cash’ highlight the systemic risks posed by market dysfunction
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Spending smarter: A powerful growth strategy
With high public debt and weak medium-term growth, finance ministries seek to do more with less. This column argues that efficiency gaps in public spending stand at about 30-40% globally and are pronounced in infrastructure investment and R&D spending. Using empirical and model-based analysis, it shows that reallocating spending to infrastructure, education, health, and R&D and closing efficiency gaps can raise GDP by 11% in emerging market and developing economies and 4% in advanced economies, over the long term, and crucially without increases in total spending.
cepr.org
Public debt is set to surpass 100% of GDP in the next four years globally, according to the latest IMF projections
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the shifting landscape of trade and investment
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has reshaped international economic and political ties among countries and reorganised global value chains. This column reveals that the initiative has triggered strategic and divergent responses among major investor countries, depending on their economic and political relationships with China. The US increased its investment in countries after they signed BRI agreements with China, largely driven by strategic competition, while the UK reduced investment, reflecting concerns over political and supply chain risks linked to China. Japan’s investment in BRI countries appears to be largely unaffected by its strategic stance toward China.
cepr.org
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013. By 2024, 149 countries had signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) for the BRI with China, and BRI engagement boasted US$71 billion in construction contracts and $51 billion in investments
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...