Linda Yueh
@lindayueh.bsky.social
Economist at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford & London Business School
Author of The #GreatCrashes & #GreatEconomists
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/024198808X/
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/lindayueh
IG: instagram.com/lindayueh
W: www.lindayueh.com ..
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Economist at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford & London Business School
Author of The #GreatCrashes & #GreatEconomists
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/024198808X/
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/lindayueh
IG: instagram.com/lindayueh
W: www.lindayueh.com
Linda Yi-Chuang Yueh is a Taiwanese-born British-American economist, lawyer, broadcaster, and author. Yueh is an adjunct professor of economics at London Business School, and a fellow in economics at St Edmund Hall, Oxford University. She was also a visiting professor at Peking University and associated with both the Centre for Economic Performance and IDEAS research centres at the London School of Economics (LSE). .. more
Economics
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Linda Yueh
@lindayueh.bsky.social
· May 11
The Great Economists and The Great Crashes are both economic history books that draw lessons from history to help with current challenges and opportunities
www.lindayueh.com/books
www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Econom...
www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Crashe...
www.lindayueh.com/books
www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Econom...
www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Crashe...
Lessons from Denmark’s eight-hour workday reform
In recent years, calls for shorter working weeks have re-emerged in Europe and elsewhere. This column examines how Denmark’s 1919 shift to the eight-hour workday affected labour market outcomes such as hourly wages, weekly earnings, and employment. Weekly earnings fell in provincial towns but less so in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher and hourly wages rose partly to offset shorter hours. Employment increased everywhere, especially among unskilled and female workers. Decentralised wage bargaining appears to have allowed for partial wage compensation and employment expansion.
cepr.org
Over a century ago, the introduction of 8-hour workday represented one of the most transformative labour-market reforms in industrialised countries. Workday reduced to 8 hours from up to 10 hours, a decline of as much as 12 hours per week, the largest reduction in history
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Supply chains and free trade agreements
Studies examining the effects of free trade agreements on the activities of multinational enterprises have tended to focus on trade between home countries and their FTA partner countries. This column examines the effects of free trade agreements on local sales and exports to third countries by overseas affiliates of Japanese manufacturing multinationals. While the effects on local sales are ambiguous, regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries, suggesting that that Japanese multinationals have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks by utilising various forms of free trade agreements.
cepr.org
According to the WTO, 375 FTAs have been implemented as of 1 September 2025
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Reposted by Dirk Pilat, Iikka Korhonen
The hidden costs of China’s industrial policy
China uses a wide array of industrial policies, such as subsidies and regulations, to promote strategic economic sectors. This column estimates that the equivalent fiscal cost of industrial policy is about 4% of GDP per year, with support directed largely at the manufacturing sector. Different policy instruments have varying effects: subsidies tend to lead to inefficiently high production, while trade and regulatory barriers limit production to suboptimal levels. Overall, factor misallocation from industrial policies reduces domestic aggregate total factor productivity by about 1.2%. Scaling back industrial policy would lower fiscal costs and raise productivity.
cepr.org
China uses a wide array of industrial policies, eg subsidies, regulations, to promote strategic economic sectors. This column estimates that the equivalent fiscal cost of industrial policy is about 4% of GDP per year, with support directed largely at the manufacturing sector
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Reposted by Iikka Korhonen
Navigating the 2022 inflation surge: Lessons for monetary policy frameworks
The 2022 global inflation surge tested inflation-targeting frameworks under severe supply shocks. This column shows that, despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers. Instead, credibility and timely action mattered more than institutional labels. As supply shocks driven by geopolitics, climate change, and the energy transition become more frequent, inflation targeting frameworks will need to adapt and evolve to remain effective in this new environment.
cepr.org
Unlike past demand-driven booms, 2022 surge powered by massive supply-side shocks. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy+food prices skyrocketing, compounding lingering supply chain bottlenecks+pandemic aftershocks, triggering sharpest rise in global inflation in decades
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cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Swedish household debt-to-income ratio (%)
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cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Frontiers of digital finance, part 1: A global perspective
The digitisation of payment, trading, and settlement systems is reshaping the financial architecture. This column, the first in a two-part series, offers an overview of major trends across the world. It highlights the successful implementation of payment systems in India and Brazil. Other parts of the world, such as sub-Saharan Africa, have also made significant progress but require stronger governance and institutional capacity. Finally, the US and euro area offer two models for digital payments in advanced economies, with important questions centring around who issues new forms of digital money and how to balance privacy and stability concerns.
cepr.org
India and Brazil have emerged as 2 success stories in digital finance, with innovations that help address financial inclusion, identity verification, safe sharing of data. India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI), launched in 2016, has improved the efficiency of payments
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Generative AI: Uneven adoption, labour market returns, and policy implications
Generative AI is being adopted more rapidly than previous digital technologies and has the potential to deliver meaningful productivity gains in professional tasks, raising concerns over whether the benefits are equitably distributed across society. This column analyses Italian household survey data to show that while awareness of generative AI is high, usage is concentrated among younger, more educated and socially engaged individuals, potentially exacerbating inequalities. Targeted interventions such as digital literacy programmes, community-based training, and inclusive design could help bridge gaps, and peer networks and informal learning can also play an important role.
cepr.org
The European Commission’s “Digital Decade” targets aim to ensure that 80% of adults acquire basic digital skills by 2030
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Supply shocks and inflation: Timely insights from financial markets
Determining the drivers of inflation in real time is a central challenge for central banks. This column introduces a new financial markets-based model to identify the types of shocks driving changes in inflation expectations in near real-time. After the initial fall in demand in 2020, supply and policy factors became key drivers of inflation expectations. As the economy reopened in 2021, supply bottlenecks kept inflation elevated, until stronger demand became the main driver from mid-2022 onward. Furthermore, it shows that pass-through to inflation varies by shock type: global value chain disruptions are especially persistent, widespread, and inflationary.
cepr.org
Federal Reserve began raising interest rates only when inflation had reached 7.9%, launching one of the steepest and fastest tightening cycles in its history, increasing policy rates by 5.25 percentage points over just 16 months.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
No, the EU does not impose a 45% tariff on itself
A recent paper which has gathered significant attention estimates a 45% tariff equivalent of intra-EU border costs. This column argues that this estimate is likely too high and depends on the particular dataset used and specific estimation choices. Therefore, it also vastly overstates the barriers that are akin to tariffs and could be lowered as a result of European Commission policy decisions. Instead, it argues that there are more urgent reforms with larger potential benefits, such as boosting EU innovation capacity and R&D spending.
cepr.org
“Our greatest asset is the Single Market—but it remains unfinished. The IMF estimates that the internal barriers within the Single Market are equivalent to a 45% tariff on goods. And a 110% tariff on services.”
Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address
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Frontiers of digital finance, part 2: Stablecoins, monetary ‘singleness’, tokenisation, and decentralised finance
The digitisation of payment, trading, and settlement systems is reshaping the financial architecture. This column, the second in a two-part series, discusses recent developments in stablecoins, tokenisation, and decentralised finance. These innovations have the potential to boost competition, improve access to credit, and reduce information frictions. However, multiple risks exist, ranging from regulatory gaps, low financial literacy, and challenges to the key principle of monetary ‘singleness’. It discusses multiple ideas to address emerging risks, while preserving the key benefits offered by the rapidly evolving landscape.
cepr.org
A key concept in the debate on stablecoins and other forms of DeFi is the principle of singleness of money – the idea that all forms of money within a currency area, including bank deposits and digital tokens, should trade at par with the central bank’s unit of account.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Reposted by Iikka Korhonen
Change in the regional share of votes for hard Eurosceptic parties in EU national legislative elections, 2004–2008 vs 2020–2023 electoral cycles
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Certification schemes may break the link between natural resources and violent conflict
Natural resources, including alluvial minerals such as diamonds, have been at the centre of brutal wars in Africa. This column evaluates one of the first schemes aimed at preventing the illicit exploitation of natural resources to promote peace: the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme. The introduction of the diamond certification scheme significantly reduced armed conflict. Rebel groups were less likely to engage in armed conflict, and their operations became geographically more concentrated. This suggests that the certification scheme was successful in limiting rebel groups’ ability to finance violent activities.
cepr.org
Kimberley Process emerged in the early 2000s, following mounting pressure from civil society and the United Nations to address the role of ‘blood diamonds’ in fuelling devastating wars in countries like Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sierra Leon.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The European Union’s new fiscal rules: A fine line between brilliant masterpiece and another chapter of déjà vu
The 2024 reform of the European Union’s fiscal framework promises long-term sustainability through greater national ownership and country-specific medium-term expenditure paths. This column argues, however, that its hurried implementation, lack of transparency, and weaker multilateral oversight risk undermining both credibility and coherence. Early experience suggests that while the reform represents a notable conceptual advance, its effectiveness depends on genuine political commitment and consistent enforcement – two ingredients that have repeatedly eluded Europe’s fiscal governance.
cepr.org
Rather than moving annual targets, central benchmark of the new EU framework is a multiannual net expenditure path – total expenditure net of interest payments, cyclical unemployment costs, and certain one-offs, adjusted for discretionary revenue measures.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Monetary policy transmission through cross-selling banks
When central banks raise or lower policy rates, banks typically pass these changes through only incompletely to the interest rates they pay on customer deposits. As a result, customers tend to reduce their bank deposits following policy rate hikes and increase them following cuts. This column proposes a new framework that reconciles incomplete pass-through and deposit losses. The authors show how banks optimise not just current deposit profits but also the lifetime value of each client, and how this matters for the transmission of monetary policy.
cepr.org
When central banks raise or lower policy rates, banks typically pass these changes through only incompletely to interest rates they pay on customer deposits. As a result, customers tend to reduce their bank deposits following policy rate hikes & increase them following cuts
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Catch my take at 10:19am on the US economy #cnninternational