Menzie Chinn
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
5.6K followers 730 following 1.2K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

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Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. .. more

Economics 93%
Business 4%
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mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 15h
His criticism is thick with irony given Hassett's May 5th prediction of covid deaths dropping to zero by mid-May 2020

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 15h
I agree -- during the slow recovery post-2008, I along with Jeffry Frieden argued for a higher target, 3-4% (as did others), given the problems w/hitting the ZLB

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 17h
If he's willing to direct the Fed funds rate to go after this target, then, in the immortal words, I say: "Go ahead, make my day"
fintwitter.bsky.social FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social · Nov 17
DONALD TRUMP SAYS "WE WANT 1% INFLATION — AND WE’RE GOING TO GET IT A LITTLE LOWER," INDICATING A GOAL TO KEEP INFLATION NEARLY AT 1% AND TRYING TO LOW

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 17h
CBO, WSJ, FRB, OECD and the projected output gap in 2026...why are we dumping a ppt of BBB-fiscal stimulus into the economy? #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

uwmadison.bsky.social
UW–Madison @uwmadison.bsky.social · 1d
Herb Kohl Philanthropies announced a pledge to extend late Sen. Herb Kohl’s longstanding support with a historic $30 million gift to support programming & renovations to Music Hall, soon-to-be Herb Kohl Hall & future home of UW’s La Follette School of Public Affairs.
With a gift honoring Sen. Herb Kohl’s legacy, Music Hall to be renamed and serve as future home of La Follette School
The gift from Herb Kohl Philanthropies, totaling $30 million, dedicates $10 million to support ongoing programming and $20 million for building renovations.
news.wisc.edu

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

econreporter.bsky.social
EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 1d
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data, @newyorkfed.org 's latest
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data - Liberty Street Economics
A look at the changes in underlying inflation over the past four months using the New York Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation model.
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio at 40 (it was 44 in December 1999) #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 2d
ADP vs @usbls.bsky.social on private NFP: changes, cumulative change #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
Do Republicans/Lean Republican pay much attention to economic news? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Michael Kevane

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 3d
Who would'a thunk it? Ground coffee prices stabilize, ground beef price growth decelerates after tariff removal... It's like basic trade theory works! #EconSky @taxpolicycenter.bsky.social

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
Feb 14 Truflation at 0.69% y/y vs @clevelandfed.bsky.social Feb nowcast at 2.38% #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 4d
Russian Central Bank reduces rates - slowdown? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
Instantaneous PCE defl inflation per @janeeckhout.bsky.social (a=4, T=12) above 2%, and nowcasted rising in December #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 5d
Trump's war on the Big Mac: CPI growth relative to 2025M01 in headline, CPI-ex shelter, CPI-electricity, "groceries"
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
@atlantafed.org , CBO, WSJ #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 6d
Tariff pass-through: @heritagefdn.bsky.social vs CBO , Amiti et al./NYFED , Gopinath-Neiman (see also Cavallo et al./HBS, Minton,Smale/FRB, etc., and just about every other mainstream economist) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn

minneapolisfed.bsky.social
Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 6d
New report: Wide array of U.S. #tariffs is inflicting economic pain equivalent to a 21% across-the-board tariff. Improved "Trade Restrictiveness Index" from our Mike Waugh is more accurate & higher than other "average tariff" measures. https://bit.ly/4kpmOqK
New measure: Tariffs twice as restrictive as popular estimates, New research brief

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
Business cycle indicators with benchmarked employment data #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Iikka Korhonen, Thomas Masterson , and 1 more

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 7d
Today’s CBO report says US consumers pay 95% of tariffs. 🤡

@brendanvduke.bsky.social
www.cbo.gov/system/files...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 7d
Benchmark revision as expected, subsequent path close to expected (except for January, which is 1.5 MAEs above consensus); BLS private and ADP diverge; #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Reposted by Menzie Chinn, Aaron Sojourner

claudia-sahm.bsky.social
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 8d
"If the data revisions play out as expected tomorrow, the United States may have just had a year with essentially no net job growth, yet without being in a recession."

stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-wit...
A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession
Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year, even without a recession.
stayathomemacro.substack.com

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
Update: Benchmark revision will likely look bad; revisions to post-March data could also be bad (implied by GS) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 8d
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
If at 5pm ET, Trump Starts Posting about “Fake” Employment Numbers, Be Prepared | Econbrowser
econbrowser.com

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 9d
2025 announced layoffs: AI or DOGE? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
Truflation says y/y inflation is 0.7% as of today...'nuff said #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10d
Mag 7 forward p/e ratio, capitalization, and investment plans for 2026 #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d
@challengergray.bsky.social layoff announcements, labor force, and recessions #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d
Nowcasting January private NFP using ADP data: +63K vs. Bloomberg +70K #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11d
(Nominal) net cash farm income ex-govt support projected to decline 7.5%; +2.5% incl govt support ($44.3 bn in 2026) @usdagov.bsky.social #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12d
Trade balance improvement less marked when stripping out gold #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...