Ryan Cummings
@weakinstrument.bsky.social
Chief of Staff @SIEPR. Economic Adviser @MITCEEPR. PhD'ing
@UW. 2021-2023 WH CEA.
I research energy markets during the transition and, as a treat to myself, consumer sentiment. Views my own.
@UW. 2021-2023 WH CEA.
I research energy markets during the transition and, as a treat to myself, consumer sentiment. Views my own.
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
🚀 I'm on the #EconSky Job Market!
My JMP asks a classic question:
Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation?
To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont.
A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)
My JMP asks a classic question:
Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation?
To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont.
A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)
November 11, 2025 at 7:55 PM
🚀 I'm on the #EconSky Job Market!
My JMP asks a classic question:
Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation?
To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont.
A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)
My JMP asks a classic question:
Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation?
To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont.
A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Total federal spending is up +7% in 2025 over 2024 year-to-date to Oct 20.
The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere.
Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.
The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere.
Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.
October 23, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Total federal spending is up +7% in 2025 over 2024 year-to-date to Oct 20.
The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere.
Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.
The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere.
Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
The more-or-less consensus view (among researchers looking at the impact of AI on labor demand) is that AI is unlikely impacting economic aggregates.
Demand for young workers is very cyclical so we would expect given the no-hire, no-fire economy that youth unemployment would be rising.
Demand for young workers is very cyclical so we would expect given the no-hire, no-fire economy that youth unemployment would be rising.
October 21, 2025 at 4:52 PM
The more-or-less consensus view (among researchers looking at the impact of AI on labor demand) is that AI is unlikely impacting economic aggregates.
Demand for young workers is very cyclical so we would expect given the no-hire, no-fire economy that youth unemployment would be rising.
Demand for young workers is very cyclical so we would expect given the no-hire, no-fire economy that youth unemployment would be rising.
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Important evidence 👇 in the debate over how best to address homelessness. Study by Mark Duggan, SIEPR senior fellow, and Derek Christopher, SIEPR research scholar, finds that investments in homeless shelters pay off, not just for unhoused individuals but adjacent and regional communities.
Leveraging seasonal variation in homeless shelter availability in Los Angeles County finds that temporary shelter significantly reduces crime and ER visits for psychiatric conditions, from Derek A. Christopher, Mark Duggan, and Olivia H. Martin www.nber.org/papers/w34376
October 21, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Important evidence 👇 in the debate over how best to address homelessness. Study by Mark Duggan, SIEPR senior fellow, and Derek Christopher, SIEPR research scholar, finds that investments in homeless shelters pay off, not just for unhoused individuals but adjacent and regional communities.
DISTURBING: I went out in Palo Alto to perform a tactical threat analysis on behalf of the Supreme Intergalactic Commander of Warfare Hegseth, and found the median antifa member is 67 and drives a luxury German car.
October 18, 2025 at 9:09 PM
DISTURBING: I went out in Palo Alto to perform a tactical threat analysis on behalf of the Supreme Intergalactic Commander of Warfare Hegseth, and found the median antifa member is 67 and drives a luxury German car.
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Is #AI the century's third speculative bubble? Yes, say SIEPR's @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @weakinstrument.bsky.social in a @nytimes.com op-ed. They lay out the reasons and examine whether the fallout could be better or worse than the internet, housing bursts. Free link 👇
tinyurl.com/nhjcm62v
tinyurl.com/nhjcm62v
Opinion | The A.I. Bubble Looks Real
The A.I. boom is likely a speculative bubble. Like the dot-com bust and the housing crisis, its pop is going to hurt.
tinyurl.com
October 14, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Is #AI the century's third speculative bubble? Yes, say SIEPR's @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @weakinstrument.bsky.social in a @nytimes.com op-ed. They lay out the reasons and examine whether the fallout could be better or worse than the internet, housing bursts. Free link 👇
tinyurl.com/nhjcm62v
tinyurl.com/nhjcm62v
1/ Me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social are back to analyzing the vibecession. This time, We dug into the #s on how men vs. women experience the economy and found a striking result: women tend to be 10 points less optimistic about the economy than men nealemahoney.substack.com/p/the-gender...
The Gender Optimism Gap
Men are significantly and persistently more optimistic than women about the economic outlook
nealemahoney.substack.com
September 29, 2025 at 2:23 PM
1/ Me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social are back to analyzing the vibecession. This time, We dug into the #s on how men vs. women experience the economy and found a striking result: women tend to be 10 points less optimistic about the economy than men nealemahoney.substack.com/p/the-gender...
There's a lot of bad happening in the world today. So take some time to read something good--dare I say, great!--from
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
September 23, 2025 at 2:17 PM
There's a lot of bad happening in the world today. So take some time to read something good--dare I say, great!--from
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
It’s actually quite unstrategic to abandon vulnerable people in your coalition. It doesn’t make you look tough, it makes you look like a coward.
September 17, 2025 at 2:19 PM
It’s actually quite unstrategic to abandon vulnerable people in your coalition. It doesn’t make you look tough, it makes you look like a coward.
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
In 2021, I warned that “family offices”—investment firms that manage the $ of tech titans & other billionaires—have more assets combined ($6TN) than all of private equity ($4TN).
Unlike PE, the public has NO insight into where they put that money. Zero.
www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/o...
Unlike PE, the public has NO insight into where they put that money. Zero.
www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/o...
Opinion | These Invisible Whales Could Sink the Economy (Published 2021)
www.nytimes.com
September 18, 2025 at 7:12 AM
In 2021, I warned that “family offices”—investment firms that manage the $ of tech titans & other billionaires—have more assets combined ($6TN) than all of private equity ($4TN).
Unlike PE, the public has NO insight into where they put that money. Zero.
www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/o...
Unlike PE, the public has NO insight into where they put that money. Zero.
www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/o...
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Lol Miran also projecting GDP growth to stay at 2.6% a year through 2028 (ht @weakinstrument.bsky.social)
September 17, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Lol Miran also projecting GDP growth to stay at 2.6% a year through 2028 (ht @weakinstrument.bsky.social)
If this is true, this is the largest public corruption scandal in the history of the United States and it's not even close. It would amount to a **$2B** bribe to the President; the next closest scandal in terms of $ would be Teapot Dome, a measly ~$10M in today's $s
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
September 15, 2025 at 4:27 PM
If this is true, this is the largest public corruption scandal in the history of the United States and it's not even close. It would amount to a **$2B** bribe to the President; the next closest scandal in terms of $ would be Teapot Dome, a measly ~$10M in today's $s
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to replace her with a loyalist widely criticized by conservatives and liberal economists alike
Read how these 2,000+ civil servants are pushing back to protect the integrity of the agency @weakinstrument.bsky.social
Read how these 2,000+ civil servants are pushing back to protect the integrity of the agency @weakinstrument.bsky.social
The jobs numbers are safe for now, but the labor market might not be
The civil servants devoted to the mission of the BLS make U.S. economic statistics the envy of the world.
contrarian.substack.com
September 9, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to replace her with a loyalist widely criticized by conservatives and liberal economists alike
Read how these 2,000+ civil servants are pushing back to protect the integrity of the agency @weakinstrument.bsky.social
Read how these 2,000+ civil servants are pushing back to protect the integrity of the agency @weakinstrument.bsky.social
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
(2/5) The story cites Mahoney's research with SIEPR's Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social and Ben Harris of @brookings.edu on how Americans’ views on the #economy versus what the data show have diverged since the #Covid19 pandemic: tinyurl.com/333f777d
What People Don't Know About The Economy
tinyurl.com
September 2, 2025 at 4:40 PM
(2/5) The story cites Mahoney's research with SIEPR's Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social and Ben Harris of @brookings.edu on how Americans’ views on the #economy versus what the data show have diverged since the #Covid19 pandemic: tinyurl.com/333f777d
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Update
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
@weakinstrument.bsky.social puts in essay form the key mechanisms described in the 🧵: the crypto/stablecoin & Treasury markets feed on each other in a doom-loop; faced with economic damage the government bails out the miscreants, socialising the costs.
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
@weakinstrument.bsky.social puts in essay form the key mechanisms described in the 🧵: the crypto/stablecoin & Treasury markets feed on each other in a doom-loop; faced with economic damage the government bails out the miscreants, socialising the costs.
Crypto wants to bring you down with it
The Trump administration is speedrunning government bailouts for the crypto industry.
contrarian.substack.com
August 28, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Update
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
@weakinstrument.bsky.social puts in essay form the key mechanisms described in the 🧵: the crypto/stablecoin & Treasury markets feed on each other in a doom-loop; faced with economic damage the government bails out the miscreants, socialising the costs.
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
@weakinstrument.bsky.social puts in essay form the key mechanisms described in the 🧵: the crypto/stablecoin & Treasury markets feed on each other in a doom-loop; faced with economic damage the government bails out the miscreants, socialising the costs.
Today, I'm in @contrariannews.org about the non-stop effort to shoehorn crytpo into the real economy so that when crypto prices decline, the gov is forced to bailout the industry or face a financial crisis.
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
Crypto wants to bring you down with it
The Trump administration is speedrunning government bailouts for the crypto industry.
contrarian.substack.com
August 26, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Today, I'm in @contrariannews.org about the non-stop effort to shoehorn crytpo into the real economy so that when crypto prices decline, the gov is forced to bailout the industry or face a financial crisis.
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
I'm in the NYT today (with @jaredb-econ.bsky.social ) arguing that the last time we had stagflation, we had oil shocks and a bad Fed. Now, we have no oil shocks and a good Fed. If we have stagflation this time, it will very much be by the President's own choosing.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/o...
Opinion | The Economy Is Starting to Pay for Trump’s Chaos
www.nytimes.com
August 10, 2025 at 4:20 PM
I'm in the NYT today (with @jaredb-econ.bsky.social ) arguing that the last time we had stagflation, we had oil shocks and a bad Fed. Now, we have no oil shocks and a good Fed. If we have stagflation this time, it will very much be by the President's own choosing.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/o...
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
How can workers feel secure when the economic landscape is always shifting beneath their feet?
July 30, 2025 at 10:07 PM
How can workers feel secure when the economic landscape is always shifting beneath their feet?
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Regardless of politics, economists should make clear: we do not condone reckless attacks on our statistical agencies, including by our fellow economists.
The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.
The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.
Kevin Hassett suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics rigged the 2012 election for Barack Obama
August 6, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Regardless of politics, economists should make clear: we do not condone reckless attacks on our statistical agencies, including by our fellow economists.
The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.
The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Yes, traffic cameras work, but it's a myth that people hate them!
Survey after survey shows that most people support automatic enforcement (and often want more of it).
This is a false controversy, fed by a minority of disgruntled drivers & journalists seeking narratives with conflict.
Survey after survey shows that most people support automatic enforcement (and often want more of it).
This is a false controversy, fed by a minority of disgruntled drivers & journalists seeking narratives with conflict.
It’s Easy to Hate Traffic Cameras. But They Do Save Lives.
They raise issues of fairness, and critics claim they’re only about revenue. More speed and red-light cameras, however, would prevent a lot of deaths and injuries.
www.governing.com
August 4, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Yes, traffic cameras work, but it's a myth that people hate them!
Survey after survey shows that most people support automatic enforcement (and often want more of it).
This is a false controversy, fed by a minority of disgruntled drivers & journalists seeking narratives with conflict.
Survey after survey shows that most people support automatic enforcement (and often want more of it).
This is a false controversy, fed by a minority of disgruntled drivers & journalists seeking narratives with conflict.
Rig counts have become a less reliable signal of production over time because the efficiency of an individual rig has improved quite a bit, but OPEC+ production and tariffs on inputs like steel are going to give pause to both majors and independents trying to win market share with new production.
Also precious little sign from oil & gas names reporting so far that they plan to increase investment. Some modestly positive quotes from CVX/XOM last week but oil services names aren’t seeing any signs of life in US tight oil yet.
Things are looking bad for Texas: The oil rig count is down by two AGAIN! It's down 46 from last year.
August 4, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Rig counts have become a less reliable signal of production over time because the efficiency of an individual rig has improved quite a bit, but OPEC+ production and tariffs on inputs like steel are going to give pause to both majors and independents trying to win market share with new production.
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Trump canceled the research grant for America’s — perhaps the world’s? — top mathematician (via @weakinstrument.bsky.social)
August 3, 2025 at 2:32 AM
Trump canceled the research grant for America’s — perhaps the world’s? — top mathematician (via @weakinstrument.bsky.social)
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
The WSJ after seeing Trump threaten Jerome Powell:
July 23, 2025 at 7:17 PM
The WSJ after seeing Trump threaten Jerome Powell:
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Excited to announce a new funding opportunity for research on "what works" in climate adaptation. We are specifically looking for strong causal designs that tell us what interventions work (or don't) to reduce impacts of a changing climate. Plz share + apply!
seedfunding.stanford.edu/apply/U5N4
seedfunding.stanford.edu/apply/U5N4
Evaluation of climate adaptation interventions using observational data | Stanford Seed Funding
seedfunding.stanford.edu
July 22, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Excited to announce a new funding opportunity for research on "what works" in climate adaptation. We are specifically looking for strong causal designs that tell us what interventions work (or don't) to reduce impacts of a changing climate. Plz share + apply!
seedfunding.stanford.edu/apply/U5N4
seedfunding.stanford.edu/apply/U5N4
Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Are you a natural resource or agricultural economics PhD or postdoc interested in real world policy work? Come work with CEPP's growing food team on quantifying subsidies in the dairy and beef industry!
If not, pass the word!
careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/food-sy...
If not, pass the word!
careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/food-sy...
Food Systems Resource Economics Fellow, Stanford Law School in School of Law, Stanford, California, United States
*NOTE: This position has been deemed critical/has specific funding, has been approved by the Law School for posting, and is exempt from the hiring...
careersearch.stanford.edu
July 21, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Are you a natural resource or agricultural economics PhD or postdoc interested in real world policy work? Come work with CEPP's growing food team on quantifying subsidies in the dairy and beef industry!
If not, pass the word!
careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/food-sy...
If not, pass the word!
careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/food-sy...