The more-or-less consensus view (among researchers looking at the impact of AI on labor demand) is that AI is unlikely impacting economic aggregates.

Demand for young workers is very cyclical so we would expect given the no-hire, no-fire economy that youth unemployment would be rising.

End/ While we can say what isn’t causing the gap, we don’t have a good answer for what is causing it. For a more informed take, we asked our friend @draliceevans.bsky.social
what she thought. We think examining this more deeply is a ripe area for future research.

4/ We then use individual-level data to see if demographic factors can help explain the gap. Surprisingly, we find that controls such as education, income, age, and political party explain little (<20%) of the gap.

3/ Interestingly, the gap—in both level and proportional terms—increases when a R is president. This largely reflects the fact that men are more likely to be Rs, and Rs are more optimistic when there is an R president.

2/ In what we call “The Gender Optimism Gap,” we use UMich Consumer Sentiment data and (consistent with others) find since the 70s (as far back as the data go), women are persistently less optimistic than men about the economy.

It’s actually quite unstrategic to abandon vulnerable people in your coalition. It doesn’t make you look tough, it makes you look like a coward.

Lol Miran also projecting GDP growth to stay at 2.6% a year through 2028 (ht @weakinstrument.bsky.social)

(2/5) The story cites Mahoney's research with SIEPR's Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social and Ben Harris of @brookings.edu on how Americans’ views on the #economy versus what the data show have diverged since the #Covid19 pandemic: tinyurl.com/333f777d

Update
contrarian.substack.com/p/crypto-wan...
@weakinstrument.bsky.social puts in essay form the key mechanisms described in the 🧵: the crypto/stablecoin & Treasury markets feed on each other in a doom-loop; faced with economic damage the government bails out the miscreants, socialising the costs.

What the crypto industry wants is simple: insurance--paid for taxpayers--that essentially provides a price floor for their useless assets. It's not subtle, and it's not complicated.

Putting salt and sugar into water and calling it "electrolytes" is definitely one of the greatest marketing gimmicks of all time.