Tom Chivers
@tomchivers.bsky.social
"Far too nice to be a journalist," per Terry Pratchett. Lead writer on Semafor's Flagship newsletter. DMs open; chiversthomas(a)gmail.
Latest book, Everything is Predictable: geni.us/EIPBook
Podcast, The Studies Show: https://www.thestudiesshowpod.com
Latest book, Everything is Predictable: geni.us/EIPBook
Podcast, The Studies Show: https://www.thestudiesshowpod.com
We really need to dial down the anti-free speech bullshit in this country. Police should almost never detain people over their choice of T-shirt! (And I would say the same if the political valence was reversed.) www.reddit.com/r/ThatsInsan...
From the ThatsInsane community on Reddit: Scotland police detain a man wearing an anti-Al shirt because it sounds similar to "Palestine Action"
Explore this post and more from the ThatsInsane community
www.reddit.com
August 19, 2025 at 12:04 PM
We really need to dial down the anti-free speech bullshit in this country. Police should almost never detain people over their choice of T-shirt! (And I would say the same if the political valence was reversed.) www.reddit.com/r/ThatsInsan...
Reposted by Tom Chivers
BIG NEWS: My book, The Land Trap, is coming out on Nov 4! I've been fascinated by this topic for years. The book tells the story of why land still occupies such a huge role in finance, economics and politics globally, and why that's a source of huge risk. You can preorder NOW!
August 15, 2025 at 3:06 PM
BIG NEWS: My book, The Land Trap, is coming out on Nov 4! I've been fascinated by this topic for years. The book tells the story of why land still occupies such a huge role in finance, economics and politics globally, and why that's a source of huge risk. You can preorder NOW!
It's just the Claire's Accessories, the simple Claire's Accessories, where you could buy a bracelet for your wife
Farewell then Claire's Accessories, your retail staff can rest at ease, as you collapse in economic strife www.ft.com/content/b32d...
Farewell then Claire's Accessories, your retail staff can rest at ease, as you collapse in economic strife www.ft.com/content/b32d...
Jewellery chain Claire’s UK business appoints administrators
High-street brand’s move puts more than 2,000 jobs at risk and comes after parent group filed for bankruptcy protection
www.ft.com
August 14, 2025 at 7:50 AM
It's just the Claire's Accessories, the simple Claire's Accessories, where you could buy a bracelet for your wife
Farewell then Claire's Accessories, your retail staff can rest at ease, as you collapse in economic strife www.ft.com/content/b32d...
Farewell then Claire's Accessories, your retail staff can rest at ease, as you collapse in economic strife www.ft.com/content/b32d...
Reposted by Tom Chivers
Just finished @tomchivers.bsky.social “Everything is predictable”.
5 stars because it manages history of science and intuition better than any other book on Bayesian analysis.
5 stars because it manages history of science and intuition better than any other book on Bayesian analysis.
August 3, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Just finished @tomchivers.bsky.social “Everything is predictable”.
5 stars because it manages history of science and intuition better than any other book on Bayesian analysis.
5 stars because it manages history of science and intuition better than any other book on Bayesian analysis.
Reposted by Tom Chivers
"A confident, precise prior that is contradicted by precise information from the world should result in a radically changed posterior probability" - @tomchivers.bsky.social, "Everything is Predictable"
One of those delightful books that will change how I live in this world. Thanks.
One of those delightful books that will change how I live in this world. Thanks.
July 22, 2025 at 11:56 AM
"A confident, precise prior that is contradicted by precise information from the world should result in a radically changed posterior probability" - @tomchivers.bsky.social, "Everything is Predictable"
One of those delightful books that will change how I live in this world. Thanks.
One of those delightful books that will change how I live in this world. Thanks.
Reposted by Tom Chivers
My most core political opinion - generic liberalism aside - is that the left on both sides of the Atlantic will never truly recover until it is honest with the public and explains that taxes on the middle classes have to rise to pay for public services, not just those on the super rich
I’m supporting the nationwide day of action calling on the richest to PAY UP.
In 2024, UK billionaires added £35 million per day to their wealth. Meanwhile, Brighton & Hove Council has an estimated funding gap of £17.2 million.
The money is there - time to tax it fairly.
In 2024, UK billionaires added £35 million per day to their wealth. Meanwhile, Brighton & Hove Council has an estimated funding gap of £17.2 million.
The money is there - time to tax it fairly.
July 9, 2025 at 2:14 PM
My most core political opinion - generic liberalism aside - is that the left on both sides of the Atlantic will never truly recover until it is honest with the public and explains that taxes on the middle classes have to rise to pay for public services, not just those on the super rich
Guys! GUYS! Everything Is Predictable is now available for £1 on Kindle! amazon.co.uk/Everything-P... You're robbing me blind! I'm cutting my own throat! You can't afford NOT to buy it!
Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World eBook : Chivers, Tom: Amazon.co.uk: Kindle Store
Everything Is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World eBook : Chivers, Tom: Amazon.co.uk: Kindle Store
amazon.co.uk
July 9, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Guys! GUYS! Everything Is Predictable is now available for £1 on Kindle! amazon.co.uk/Everything-P... You're robbing me blind! I'm cutting my own throat! You can't afford NOT to buy it!
Reposted by Tom Chivers
Absolutely fascinating Studies Show pod from @tomchivers.bsky.social & @stuartjritchie.bsky.social on psychological sex differences (biological, societal, both)- well worth paying for: www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe - I just wish Stuart's profile had no pic: I prefer to see him as David Tennant
Subscribe to The Studies Show Podcast
A weekly podcast about the latest scientific controversies, with Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie. Click to read The Studies Show Podcast, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
www.thestudiesshowpod.com
July 8, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Absolutely fascinating Studies Show pod from @tomchivers.bsky.social & @stuartjritchie.bsky.social on psychological sex differences (biological, societal, both)- well worth paying for: www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe - I just wish Stuart's profile had no pic: I prefer to see him as David Tennant
Reposted by Tom Chivers
Luv me trees. Luv me fruit. Luv me rainforest. Simple as.
May 28, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Luv me trees. Luv me fruit. Luv me rainforest. Simple as.
Reposted by Tom Chivers
WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISOR HASSETT: TRUMP WANTS UK TO LIBERATE THE POSTCODE ADDRESS FILE - CNBC INTERVIEW.
April 7, 2025 at 2:55 PM
WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISOR HASSETT: TRUMP WANTS UK TO LIBERATE THE POSTCODE ADDRESS FILE - CNBC INTERVIEW.
Reposted by Tom Chivers
In 2004, it took the world a year to add a gigawatt of solar power — now it takes a day
February 7, 2025 at 12:38 PM
In 2004, it took the world a year to add a gigawatt of solar power — now it takes a day
Reposted by Tom Chivers
I appreciate I’m not the head of counterterrorism, but: no, it’s really not similar.
@peteetchells.bsky.social
@garwboy.bsky.social
@tomchivers.bsky.social
@stuartjritchie.bsky.social
@peteetchells.bsky.social
@garwboy.bsky.social
@tomchivers.bsky.social
@stuartjritchie.bsky.social
The harm to children from social media is similar to the cancer caused by smoking and a ban for under-16s “warrants serious attention”, the head of counterterrorism told @thetimes.com Crime and Justice Commission @mattdathan.bsky.social www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/art...
Social media for children ‘like cancer risk of smoking’
The UK head of counterterrorism is calling for an online age restriction, banning under-16s from using platforms
www.thetimes.com
February 6, 2025 at 8:35 AM
I appreciate I’m not the head of counterterrorism, but: no, it’s really not similar.
@peteetchells.bsky.social
@garwboy.bsky.social
@tomchivers.bsky.social
@stuartjritchie.bsky.social
@peteetchells.bsky.social
@garwboy.bsky.social
@tomchivers.bsky.social
@stuartjritchie.bsky.social
Reposted by Tom Chivers
they not like us
Wonder what all those Silicon Valley "effective altruists" make of their kin destroying by far the largest aid agency in the world?
February 6, 2025 at 4:05 PM
they not like us
Reposted by Tom Chivers
These two books, by @anilananth.bsky.social and @tomchivers.bsky.social, are the first two books in a very long time that I read in their entirety without significant pause or other diversion along the way.
I cannot recommend them enough!
#booksky #dataSkyence
I cannot recommend them enough!
#booksky #dataSkyence
January 23, 2025 at 9:29 PM
These two books, by @anilananth.bsky.social and @tomchivers.bsky.social, are the first two books in a very long time that I read in their entirety without significant pause or other diversion along the way.
I cannot recommend them enough!
#booksky #dataSkyence
I cannot recommend them enough!
#booksky #dataSkyence
This is not a good riposte! 1) Yes, being unable to say false things curtails free speech. You may say that's fine, but still, it's an imposition on free speech and it's silly to pretend otherwise. 2) Besides that, fact checkers get a lot wrong and censored a lot of true things, esp in the pandemic
January 10, 2025 at 1:18 PM
This is not a good riposte! 1) Yes, being unable to say false things curtails free speech. You may say that's fine, but still, it's an imposition on free speech and it's silly to pretend otherwise. 2) Besides that, fact checkers get a lot wrong and censored a lot of true things, esp in the pandemic
all in favour of encouraging risky play, etc, but I do wish that pieces encouraging it would admit, nice and high up, that it would mean more children being injured and killed, and that this is a price they consider worthwhile. (I would probably agree!) www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Why kids need to take more risks: science reveals the benefits of wild, free play
Studies reveal how risky play can benefit child development. But encouraging it can be a challenge for parents.
www.nature.com
January 9, 2025 at 8:38 AM
all in favour of encouraging risky play, etc, but I do wish that pieces encouraging it would admit, nice and high up, that it would mean more children being injured and killed, and that this is a price they consider worthwhile. (I would probably agree!) www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Tom Chivers
Just incredible that 'the desirable result of the policy' is written up as 'we found a loophole.'
January 5, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Just incredible that 'the desirable result of the policy' is written up as 'we found a loophole.'
Reposted by Tom Chivers
Monday = London Review of Substacks
@semafor.com's @tomchivers.bsky.social reviews three smart essays by @deborahvass.bsky.social, @henrygjeffreys.bsky.social, and @scientificdiscovery.dev in our daily global newsletter www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
@semafor.com's @tomchivers.bsky.social reviews three smart essays by @deborahvass.bsky.social, @henrygjeffreys.bsky.social, and @scientificdiscovery.dev in our daily global newsletter www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
December 16, 2024 at 3:57 PM
Monday = London Review of Substacks
@semafor.com's @tomchivers.bsky.social reviews three smart essays by @deborahvass.bsky.social, @henrygjeffreys.bsky.social, and @scientificdiscovery.dev in our daily global newsletter www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
@semafor.com's @tomchivers.bsky.social reviews three smart essays by @deborahvass.bsky.social, @henrygjeffreys.bsky.social, and @scientificdiscovery.dev in our daily global newsletter www.semafor.com/newsletter/1...
Reposted by Tom Chivers
Reposted by Tom Chivers
Almost every new car sold in Norway is electric
December 15, 2024 at 10:41 AM
Almost every new car sold in Norway is electric
Reposted by Tom Chivers
The Land Registry putting up fees for finding out the true owner of a property by 133% is a proper financial hit if you're running a small investigative news outlet! (Related: I've always thought if you wanted to start a revolution in the UK, make the Land Registry free and searchable on Google.)
December 12, 2024 at 8:47 AM
The Land Registry putting up fees for finding out the true owner of a property by 133% is a proper financial hit if you're running a small investigative news outlet! (Related: I've always thought if you wanted to start a revolution in the UK, make the Land Registry free and searchable on Google.)
As always, articles saying OH NO INJURIES FROM [NEW THING X] ARE UP [Y%] are completely pointless unless you tell us how much the USE of New Thing X is up! If the use of e-scooters and e-bikes have tripled, it's not surprising if injuries have too! www.scientificamerican.com/article/inju...
Injuries from Electric Bikes and Scooters Have Tripled. Here’s What to Know
Following a startling spike in electric scooter and e-bike injuries, epidemiologists warn of inadequate infrastructure and safety rules
www.scientificamerican.com
December 12, 2024 at 8:41 AM
As always, articles saying OH NO INJURIES FROM [NEW THING X] ARE UP [Y%] are completely pointless unless you tell us how much the USE of New Thing X is up! If the use of e-scooters and e-bikes have tripled, it's not surprising if injuries have too! www.scientificamerican.com/article/inju...
Reposted by Tom Chivers
I wrote an article about my dad's death, and how it affected my views on assisted dying
Free version of the article in the next post
Views are my own, not those of the institutions or academies I'm associated with
www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcar...
Free version of the article in the next post
Views are my own, not those of the institutions or academies I'm associated with
www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcar...
What my dad’s death taught me about the assisted dying debate
Sarah-Jayne Blakemore and her sisters knew their father, the neuroscientist Sir Colin Blakemore, had always planned to go to the Netherlands in the face of terminal motor neurone disease. But the real...
www.thetimes.com
December 12, 2024 at 8:10 AM
I wrote an article about my dad's death, and how it affected my views on assisted dying
Free version of the article in the next post
Views are my own, not those of the institutions or academies I'm associated with
www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcar...
Free version of the article in the next post
Views are my own, not those of the institutions or academies I'm associated with
www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcar...
I'm a very pro-funding-science sort of guy, but AIUI Argentina was running an absolutely enormous deficit, its inflation was out of control, and it had a ton of debt. It had to cut loads of things! Science is important but so is the country not going bankrupt! www.nature.com/articles/d41...
‘There will be nothing left’: researchers fear collapse of science in Argentina
One year into President Javier Milei’s presidency, scientists are exiting the country in the face of big budget cuts.
www.nature.com
December 11, 2024 at 2:32 PM
I'm a very pro-funding-science sort of guy, but AIUI Argentina was running an absolutely enormous deficit, its inflation was out of control, and it had a ton of debt. It had to cut loads of things! Science is important but so is the country not going bankrupt! www.nature.com/articles/d41...
This week's The Studies Show is in your inbox! Actually it arrived yesterday but I'm very slow. For paid-only subscribers, it's about sex, gender, and sport, and it asks the daringly controversial question: is the average man taller than the average woman? www.thestudiesshowpod.com/p/paid-only-...
Paid-only Episode 15: Sex and sport
The battle of the sexes. Or is it "genders"?
www.thestudiesshowpod.com
December 11, 2024 at 2:28 PM
This week's The Studies Show is in your inbox! Actually it arrived yesterday but I'm very slow. For paid-only subscribers, it's about sex, gender, and sport, and it asks the daringly controversial question: is the average man taller than the average woman? www.thestudiesshowpod.com/p/paid-only-...