@stamps50.bsky.social
Reposted
Here it is: open.substack.com/pub/moneyins...
Fiscal fumbling in the UK
Three challenges for the public finances
open.substack.com
December 22, 2025 at 8:18 AM
Here it is: open.substack.com/pub/moneyins...
Reposted
So can non-health benefit cuts explain the rise in disability spending in the 2010s?
A rough calculation based on our results suggests all benefit cuts in the 2010s could have increased disability benefit spending by £900m: 13% of the real-terms £7bn increase over this period.
A rough calculation based on our results suggests all benefit cuts in the 2010s could have increased disability benefit spending by £900m: 13% of the real-terms £7bn increase over this period.
December 12, 2025 at 8:15 AM
So can non-health benefit cuts explain the rise in disability spending in the 2010s?
A rough calculation based on our results suggests all benefit cuts in the 2010s could have increased disability benefit spending by £900m: 13% of the real-terms £7bn increase over this period.
A rough calculation based on our results suggests all benefit cuts in the 2010s could have increased disability benefit spending by £900m: 13% of the real-terms £7bn increase over this period.
Reposted
1. Govt's announced more on the Youth Guarantee. Short view: lots of good stuff in there, but much is focused on the 1 in 4 NEETs who are unemployed & we need more on how employers will create jobs & hire YP (who will create 50K apprenticeships Govt says it's funding?) www.gov.uk/government/n...
Almost a million young people to benefit from expanded support, new training, and work experience opportunities
Almost one million young people will benefit from learning or employment opportunities as a result of a major £820 million funding package.
www.gov.uk
December 8, 2025 at 11:20 AM
1. Govt's announced more on the Youth Guarantee. Short view: lots of good stuff in there, but much is focused on the 1 in 4 NEETs who are unemployed & we need more on how employers will create jobs & hire YP (who will create 50K apprenticeships Govt says it's funding?) www.gov.uk/government/n...
I see we’re now back to blaming both migrants and benefits street for the problems in the UK. In 17 years since the GFC it’s like we’ve learned nothing of value whatsoever about the actual problems we face. A whole generation wasted
Utter bullshit/lies from the "Centre for Social Justice" via the Express.
November 30, 2025 at 10:21 PM
I see we’re now back to blaming both migrants and benefits street for the problems in the UK. In 17 years since the GFC it’s like we’ve learned nothing of value whatsoever about the actual problems we face. A whole generation wasted
Reposted
New substack: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/the-fiscal... The government's problem isn't merely how to raise tax: it's the more difficult one of reallocating labour.
The fiscal challenge
Reeves' problem isn't raising money: it's much more difficult than that.
chrisdillow.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:11 AM
New substack: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/the-fiscal... The government's problem isn't merely how to raise tax: it's the more difficult one of reallocating labour.
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It is as though the so called experts don't understand the cause of the crisis. I've tried to explain it many times, most recently here: www.linkedin.com/pulse/queues... ...
Queues, not demand are the biggest problem in NHS A&E departments
A&Es are crowded. But not because too many people are attending them.
www.linkedin.com
October 31, 2025 at 12:29 PM
It is as though the so called experts don't understand the cause of the crisis. I've tried to explain it many times, most recently here: www.linkedin.com/pulse/queues... ...
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New post: What the call for fiscal headroom reveals
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/what...
The taxes=current spending fiscal rule is mistakenly viewed as an asymmetrical target. We don't require the Bank to provide headroom for its 2% inflation target, so why require headroom for fiscal rules?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/what...
The taxes=current spending fiscal rule is mistakenly viewed as an asymmetrical target. We don't require the Bank to provide headroom for its 2% inflation target, so why require headroom for fiscal rules?
What the call for fiscal headroom reveals
Everyone, including the IFS, is agreed that the Chancellor should in the budget create more fiscal headroom than she did previously. Rath...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
October 21, 2025 at 7:58 AM
New post: What the call for fiscal headroom reveals
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/what...
The taxes=current spending fiscal rule is mistakenly viewed as an asymmetrical target. We don't require the Bank to provide headroom for its 2% inflation target, so why require headroom for fiscal rules?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/what...
The taxes=current spending fiscal rule is mistakenly viewed as an asymmetrical target. We don't require the Bank to provide headroom for its 2% inflation target, so why require headroom for fiscal rules?
Reposted
Been banging on about this for years. There’s a looming crisis here. 🧵
Pensions are once again in the news as ministers fly various kites about tax changes in the forthcoming budget with little apparent regard for the counterproductive ways in which people might react on.ft.com/3IlpMy0 Pension panic grips Generation X
Pension panic grips Generation X
While 45- to 60-year-olds are the least prepared for retirement, Budget rumours are accelerating pension withdrawals
on.ft.com
September 20, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Been banging on about this for years. There’s a looming crisis here. 🧵
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But what is more worrying is that the weak goods performance this year is nothing new. UK goods exports have continued to considerably underperform the rest of the G7. With the UKs overall export performance buoyed by a much stronger services performance.
September 12, 2025 at 7:39 AM
But what is more worrying is that the weak goods performance this year is nothing new. UK goods exports have continued to considerably underperform the rest of the G7. With the UKs overall export performance buoyed by a much stronger services performance.
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The Government is doing its best at the moment to imply it has no problem with the ethnonationalism now rearing its ugly head. And I don't understand why. 1/5
September 1, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The Government is doing its best at the moment to imply it has no problem with the ethnonationalism now rearing its ugly head. And I don't understand why. 1/5
How much more evidence does the govt need that with a determined effort, it could shift the narrative to something more useful to talk about?
The issue salience story of this year has been the steady climb of people selecting immigration levels or channel crossings as a top issue. Meanwhile crime has crossed 20% for the first time since last Autumn. Cost of living retains its number one spot.
August 20, 2025 at 3:34 PM
How much more evidence does the govt need that with a determined effort, it could shift the narrative to something more useful to talk about?
Reposted
You've GOT to be kidding me!
The Conservatives - who oversaw every single thing on this list - are trying to claim that only the Conservatives would "stop the madness" - that they created...?
So incredulity aside, what about the list itself?
Let's go Debunking! 1/34
The Conservatives - who oversaw every single thing on this list - are trying to claim that only the Conservatives would "stop the madness" - that they created...?
So incredulity aside, what about the list itself?
Let's go Debunking! 1/34
August 15, 2025 at 5:06 PM
You've GOT to be kidding me!
The Conservatives - who oversaw every single thing on this list - are trying to claim that only the Conservatives would "stop the madness" - that they created...?
So incredulity aside, what about the list itself?
Let's go Debunking! 1/34
The Conservatives - who oversaw every single thing on this list - are trying to claim that only the Conservatives would "stop the madness" - that they created...?
So incredulity aside, what about the list itself?
Let's go Debunking! 1/34
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No she shouldn't. If we can't afford taxes to pay for the NHS then we can't afford charges either. And if we can't afford a decent state pension then we can't afford private ones. There's no magic money tree.
July 25, 2025 at 7:08 PM
No she shouldn't. If we can't afford taxes to pay for the NHS then we can't afford charges either. And if we can't afford a decent state pension then we can't afford private ones. There's no magic money tree.
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I remain amazed how political commentary on the bond market still winds me up, because it so often treats that market like a political actor rather than the market that it actually is. So I've just read, from one of the best political commentators in the UK, that 1/4
July 5, 2025 at 9:11 AM
I remain amazed how political commentary on the bond market still winds me up, because it so often treats that market like a political actor rather than the market that it actually is. So I've just read, from one of the best political commentators in the UK, that 1/4
Reposted
Study on London 20 mph limits shows:
- collisions ⬇️ 35%
- casualties ⬇️ 36%
- fatal/serious injuries ⬇️ 34%
- child casualties ⬇️ 46%
- child deaths ⬇️ 75%
- walkers, cyclists, motorcyclists killed/seriously injured ⬇️ 28%
etsc.eu/20mph-limits...
- collisions ⬇️ 35%
- casualties ⬇️ 36%
- fatal/serious injuries ⬇️ 34%
- child casualties ⬇️ 46%
- child deaths ⬇️ 75%
- walkers, cyclists, motorcyclists killed/seriously injured ⬇️ 28%
etsc.eu/20mph-limits...
20mph limits in London linked to sharp fall in road injuries and deaths, new report finds
A new study published by Transport for London (TfL) has shown that the introduction of 20mph speed limits and zones on local authority-managed roads in London between 1989 and 2013 led to significant…
etsc.eu
June 3, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Study on London 20 mph limits shows:
- collisions ⬇️ 35%
- casualties ⬇️ 36%
- fatal/serious injuries ⬇️ 34%
- child casualties ⬇️ 46%
- child deaths ⬇️ 75%
- walkers, cyclists, motorcyclists killed/seriously injured ⬇️ 28%
etsc.eu/20mph-limits...
- collisions ⬇️ 35%
- casualties ⬇️ 36%
- fatal/serious injuries ⬇️ 34%
- child casualties ⬇️ 46%
- child deaths ⬇️ 75%
- walkers, cyclists, motorcyclists killed/seriously injured ⬇️ 28%
etsc.eu/20mph-limits...
Reposted
A new day, a new chart.
This shows the UK’s growth gap with other G7 economies and the EU27 since 2020. Spot the problem.
This shows the UK’s growth gap with other G7 economies and the EU27 since 2020. Spot the problem.
May 28, 2025 at 9:51 AM
A new day, a new chart.
This shows the UK’s growth gap with other G7 economies and the EU27 since 2020. Spot the problem.
This shows the UK’s growth gap with other G7 economies and the EU27 since 2020. Spot the problem.
Reposted
NEW: Sure Start generated widespread, long-lasting benefits for children in education, health, absences, and SEND.
Every £1 of up-front spending on Sure Start could generate around £2 in total benefits over the long run.
THREAD on our new @nuffieldfoundation.org-funded report:
[1/11]
Every £1 of up-front spending on Sure Start could generate around £2 in total benefits over the long run.
THREAD on our new @nuffieldfoundation.org-funded report:
[1/11]
May 22, 2025 at 6:30 AM
NEW: Sure Start generated widespread, long-lasting benefits for children in education, health, absences, and SEND.
Every £1 of up-front spending on Sure Start could generate around £2 in total benefits over the long run.
THREAD on our new @nuffieldfoundation.org-funded report:
[1/11]
Every £1 of up-front spending on Sure Start could generate around £2 in total benefits over the long run.
THREAD on our new @nuffieldfoundation.org-funded report:
[1/11]
I see we’ve finally reached the ‘Hey, steady on, lads’ stage of UK diplomatic response
NEW: No 10 indicates it's ready to impose sanctions on senior members of Israeli govt over military expansion into Gaza.
“We are clear, if Israel does not cease the renewed military offensive and lift its restrictions onto humanitarian aid, we will take further concrete actions in response.”
“We are clear, if Israel does not cease the renewed military offensive and lift its restrictions onto humanitarian aid, we will take further concrete actions in response.”
May 21, 2025 at 1:06 PM
I see we’ve finally reached the ‘Hey, steady on, lads’ stage of UK diplomatic response
Reposted
Stupendously interesting, useful - and interactive - chart from @psurridge.bsky.social public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
How voters for each party view the other parties
A Flourish data visualization by Paula Surridge
public.flourish.studio
May 1, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Stupendously interesting, useful - and interactive - chart from @psurridge.bsky.social public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
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One reason conservatives beat centrists is that they look at polling and think "we have work to do" instead of "this is an immutable fact of reality that we are powerless to tackle."
On any number of issues they have moved the needle through sheer bloody-mindedness and media saturation.
On any number of issues they have moved the needle through sheer bloody-mindedness and media saturation.
First they came for the immigrants, and I did not speak up, because the latest Rasmussen poll showed low net favorability ratings on immigrants and that gulags are a toss-up issue for suburban moms. #savvy #clever #wonk #nobeliefs #noprinciples
April 21, 2025 at 12:45 PM
One reason conservatives beat centrists is that they look at polling and think "we have work to do" instead of "this is an immutable fact of reality that we are powerless to tackle."
On any number of issues they have moved the needle through sheer bloody-mindedness and media saturation.
On any number of issues they have moved the needle through sheer bloody-mindedness and media saturation.
Reposted
New research out from me today: why has Britain experienced so little productivity growth in recent years? And why (at least up until now) has the US has performed so much better?
Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵
Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵
April 8, 2025 at 9:49 AM
New research out from me today: why has Britain experienced so little productivity growth in recent years? And why (at least up until now) has the US has performed so much better?
Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵
Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵
Reposted
The DWP forecasts that - without factoring its employment support package or its as yet opaque protections for severe lifelong disabilities - its disability benefit cuts will lead to 250,000 more people, including 50,000 more children, living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2029/30
March 26, 2025 at 2:18 PM
The DWP forecasts that - without factoring its employment support package or its as yet opaque protections for severe lifelong disabilities - its disability benefit cuts will lead to 250,000 more people, including 50,000 more children, living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2029/30
Reposted
What's most concerning is the big picture here: the UK's openness to trade has fallen since the pandemic and Brexit. Trade as a share of GDP is now 3.5% below pre-Covid levels.
This makes the UK an outlier among G7 countries. The gap with the G7+EU average is 9 ppts. Not exactly a rosy picture!
This makes the UK an outlier among G7 countries. The gap with the G7+EU average is 9 ppts. Not exactly a rosy picture!
February 13, 2025 at 4:31 PM
What's most concerning is the big picture here: the UK's openness to trade has fallen since the pandemic and Brexit. Trade as a share of GDP is now 3.5% below pre-Covid levels.
This makes the UK an outlier among G7 countries. The gap with the G7+EU average is 9 ppts. Not exactly a rosy picture!
This makes the UK an outlier among G7 countries. The gap with the G7+EU average is 9 ppts. Not exactly a rosy picture!
Reposted
"Additional research was commissioned to support the connectivity analysis in order to take into account the challenge that many business travellers worked on the train and so the effective time saved was generally less than the total saving in travel time" What a horrendous mistake
What went wrong with HS2? 🚄 TPI / @alliancembs.bsky.social's Graham Winch investigates in this insights paper, with the goal of learning lessons and ensuring that they are never repeated. #productivity #infrastructure #investment: www.productivity.ac.uk/research/so-...
So, What Went Wrong with HS2? - The Productivity Institute
An investigation into how HS2 got into a financial mess, with the goal of learning the lessons and ensuring that they are never repeated.
www.productivity.ac.uk
February 13, 2025 at 1:11 PM
"Additional research was commissioned to support the connectivity analysis in order to take into account the challenge that many business travellers worked on the train and so the effective time saved was generally less than the total saving in travel time" What a horrendous mistake
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Centrist parties keep stepping on the same rakes over and over again.
They let the right wing massively inflate a problem, then accept the premise it's an existential threat, then do milquetoast versions of right-wing solutions, then lose elections and Pikachu face.
They let the right wing massively inflate a problem, then accept the premise it's an existential threat, then do milquetoast versions of right-wing solutions, then lose elections and Pikachu face.
"Only the visible economic or financial market costs of protectionism, together with public opinion responding to a coherent argument about the dangers of trashing the trading system, are likely to give him any pause." https://buff.ly/42SaSqM
February 13, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Centrist parties keep stepping on the same rakes over and over again.
They let the right wing massively inflate a problem, then accept the premise it's an existential threat, then do milquetoast versions of right-wing solutions, then lose elections and Pikachu face.
They let the right wing massively inflate a problem, then accept the premise it's an existential threat, then do milquetoast versions of right-wing solutions, then lose elections and Pikachu face.