Federico Gueli
@siamosolocani.bsky.social
Variant Spotter SC2 .
Reposted by Federico Gueli
#Archaea #ArchaeaSky #MicroSky
exceptional work, hiro & team 👏👏👏
it's wonderful to see 𝘓. 𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘶𝘮 dancing. live videos reveal so much more than stills!
ALT source: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
exceptional work, hiro & team 👏👏👏
it's wonderful to see 𝘓. 𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘶𝘮 dancing. live videos reveal so much more than stills!
ALT source: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
December 3, 2025 at 7:54 PM
#Archaea #ArchaeaSky #MicroSky
exceptional work, hiro & team 👏👏👏
it's wonderful to see 𝘓. 𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘶𝘮 dancing. live videos reveal so much more than stills!
ALT source: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
exceptional work, hiro & team 👏👏👏
it's wonderful to see 𝘓. 𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘶𝘮 dancing. live videos reveal so much more than stills!
ALT source: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
Reposted by Federico Gueli
🇳🇿New Zealand COVID weekly update: 30 Nov 2025
24 Nov to 30 Nov 2025:
🔹Reported cases: 184 (+13.5%)
🔹Reported Deaths: 6 (+20.0%)
🔹Total deaths: 5,488 (+6)
11 Nov to 17 Nov 2025:
🔹Hospitalisations: 24 (-41.4%)
#COVID19NZ
Source: tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-p...
24 Nov to 30 Nov 2025:
🔹Reported cases: 184 (+13.5%)
🔹Reported Deaths: 6 (+20.0%)
🔹Total deaths: 5,488 (+6)
11 Nov to 17 Nov 2025:
🔹Hospitalisations: 24 (-41.4%)
#COVID19NZ
Source: tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-p...
December 2, 2025 at 9:57 PM
🇳🇿New Zealand COVID weekly update: 30 Nov 2025
24 Nov to 30 Nov 2025:
🔹Reported cases: 184 (+13.5%)
🔹Reported Deaths: 6 (+20.0%)
🔹Total deaths: 5,488 (+6)
11 Nov to 17 Nov 2025:
🔹Hospitalisations: 24 (-41.4%)
#COVID19NZ
Source: tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-p...
24 Nov to 30 Nov 2025:
🔹Reported cases: 184 (+13.5%)
🔹Reported Deaths: 6 (+20.0%)
🔹Total deaths: 5,488 (+6)
11 Nov to 17 Nov 2025:
🔹Hospitalisations: 24 (-41.4%)
#COVID19NZ
Source: tewhatuora.govt.nz/for-health-p...
Reposted by Federico Gueli
The next decision-making meeting of the WHO TAG-CO-VAC to make recommendations on COVID-19 vaccine composition is scheduled for December 2025.
The WHO specifically requested data on BA.3.2 antisera and vaccine efficacy.
www.who.int/news/item/29...
The WHO specifically requested data on BA.3.2 antisera and vaccine efficacy.
www.who.int/news/item/29...
Types of data requested to inform December 2025 COVID-19 vaccine antigen composition deliberations
The WHO Technical Advisory Group on COVID-19 Vaccine Composition (TAG-CO-VAC) continues to closely monitor the genetic and antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants, immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 i...
www.who.int
December 3, 2025 at 6:04 PM
The next decision-making meeting of the WHO TAG-CO-VAC to make recommendations on COVID-19 vaccine composition is scheduled for December 2025.
The WHO specifically requested data on BA.3.2 antisera and vaccine efficacy.
www.who.int/news/item/29...
The WHO specifically requested data on BA.3.2 antisera and vaccine efficacy.
www.who.int/news/item/29...
Reposted by Federico Gueli
Reposted by Federico Gueli
A small Australian December (!) #flu thread.
In the ~25 days since my last update (08NOV), detections have risen by 32,330. That's a daily rate of 1,293 (up from 1,067 in the previous update).
In the ~25 days since my last update (08NOV), detections have risen by 32,330. That's a daily rate of 1,293 (up from 1,067 in the previous update).
December 3, 2025 at 10:32 AM
A small Australian December (!) #flu thread.
In the ~25 days since my last update (08NOV), detections have risen by 32,330. That's a daily rate of 1,293 (up from 1,067 in the previous update).
In the ~25 days since my last update (08NOV), detections have risen by 32,330. That's a daily rate of 1,293 (up from 1,067 in the previous update).
Reposted by Federico Gueli
It has S:P499H, a rare mutation (~200 seqs ever). We've seen almost no new RBD mutations in BA.3.2, so this is intriguing. Curiously, it's most closely related to the Irish BA.3.2.2 seqs, separate from the other BA.3.2 today—it's also the only one from today's upload from Rhineland-Palatinate. 2/2
December 3, 2025 at 1:36 PM
It has S:P499H, a rare mutation (~200 seqs ever). We've seen almost no new RBD mutations in BA.3.2, so this is intriguing. Curiously, it's most closely related to the Irish BA.3.2.2 seqs, separate from the other BA.3.2 today—it's also the only one from today's upload from Rhineland-Palatinate. 2/2
Reposted by Federico Gueli
Seven new BA.3.2.2 from Germany today spotted by @JosetteSchoenma. They are genetically dispersed and are therefore clearly not a cluster. As @snpoehlm says, this is ~5% of all sequences and ~15% in North Rhine-Westphalia. Collection dates Nov 6-18.
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
December 3, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Seven new BA.3.2.2 from Germany today spotted by @JosetteSchoenma. They are genetically dispersed and are therefore clearly not a cluster. As @snpoehlm says, this is ~5% of all sequences and ~15% in North Rhine-Westphalia. Collection dates Nov 6-18.
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
Reposted by Federico Gueli
The baseline of a saltation variant is its floor, while long-circulating variants are pushing against their ceiling. And as a minor, divergent variant grows, its opportunities to acquire beneficial mutations multiply—opportunities circulating variants have long had an ample supply of. 2/3
December 3, 2025 at 1:54 PM
The baseline of a saltation variant is its floor, while long-circulating variants are pushing against their ceiling. And as a minor, divergent variant grows, its opportunities to acquire beneficial mutations multiply—opportunities circulating variants have long had an ample supply of. 2/3
Reposted by Federico Gueli
One thing we've consistently seen is that if an emerging divergent variant competes evenly w/the most advanced circulating variants, it will eventually predominate. We saw this with XBB & BA.2.86, and a similar pattern holds among various minor lineages. 1/3
Seven new BA.3.2.2 from Germany today spotted by @JosetteSchoenma. They are genetically dispersed and are therefore clearly not a cluster. As @snpoehlm says, this is ~5% of all sequences and ~15% in North Rhine-Westphalia. Collection dates Nov 6-18.
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
December 3, 2025 at 1:54 PM
One thing we've consistently seen is that if an emerging divergent variant competes evenly w/the most advanced circulating variants, it will eventually predominate. We saw this with XBB & BA.2.86, and a similar pattern holds among various minor lineages. 1/3
Many further designations today.
Quite everything interesting around got designated. Still i don't see any turning point capability in these newly designated lineages.
Flat landscape with BA.3.2.3 being the rising star
Quite everything interesting around got designated. Still i don't see any turning point capability in these newly designated lineages.
Flat landscape with BA.3.2.3 being the rising star
@corneliusroemer.bsky.social designated the sub branches of BA.3.2.1 and BA.3.2.2.
Respectively their aliases are RD* and RE*.
the Western Australia BA.3.2.2 branch is now RE.1.1
while the European BA.3.2.2 with Orf1a:E1015G is RE.2 with RE.2.1 having N:T296I and instead RE.2.2 having N:A173V
Respectively their aliases are RD* and RE*.
the Western Australia BA.3.2.2 branch is now RE.1.1
while the European BA.3.2.2 with Orf1a:E1015G is RE.2 with RE.2.1 having N:T296I and instead RE.2.2 having N:A173V
December 3, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Many further designations today.
Quite everything interesting around got designated. Still i don't see any turning point capability in these newly designated lineages.
Flat landscape with BA.3.2.3 being the rising star
Quite everything interesting around got designated. Still i don't see any turning point capability in these newly designated lineages.
Flat landscape with BA.3.2.3 being the rising star
Reposted by Federico Gueli
Another US wastewater detection of BA.3.2.2 (from CDC-NWSS surveillance)
This time from Austin on 11/19
The score:
Wastewater 2
Patient surveillance 0
This time from Austin on 11/19
The score:
Wastewater 2
Patient surveillance 0
December 3, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Another US wastewater detection of BA.3.2.2 (from CDC-NWSS surveillance)
This time from Austin on 11/19
The score:
Wastewater 2
Patient surveillance 0
This time from Austin on 11/19
The score:
Wastewater 2
Patient surveillance 0
@corneliusroemer.bsky.social designated the sub branches of BA.3.2.1 and BA.3.2.2.
Respectively their aliases are RD* and RE*.
the Western Australia BA.3.2.2 branch is now RE.1.1
while the European BA.3.2.2 with Orf1a:E1015G is RE.2 with RE.2.1 having N:T296I and instead RE.2.2 having N:A173V
Respectively their aliases are RD* and RE*.
the Western Australia BA.3.2.2 branch is now RE.1.1
while the European BA.3.2.2 with Orf1a:E1015G is RE.2 with RE.2.1 having N:T296I and instead RE.2.2 having N:A173V
December 2, 2025 at 10:31 PM
@corneliusroemer.bsky.social designated the sub branches of BA.3.2.1 and BA.3.2.2.
Respectively their aliases are RD* and RE*.
the Western Australia BA.3.2.2 branch is now RE.1.1
while the European BA.3.2.2 with Orf1a:E1015G is RE.2 with RE.2.1 having N:T296I and instead RE.2.2 having N:A173V
Respectively their aliases are RD* and RE*.
the Western Australia BA.3.2.2 branch is now RE.1.1
while the European BA.3.2.2 with Orf1a:E1015G is RE.2 with RE.2.1 having N:T296I and instead RE.2.2 having N:A173V
NEW BA.3.2.2 from Scotland. It clusters with samples from Germany on N:A173V branch cc @mikehoney.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social
December 1, 2025 at 4:37 PM
NEW BA.3.2.2 from Scotland. It clusters with samples from Germany on N:A173V branch cc @mikehoney.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social
Reposted by Federico Gueli
What blast! 40 AI for Science Fellows from AIMS South Africa and Google DeepMind at CERI - Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation. This collaboration aims to advance AI technologies in Africa. We also welcomed the directors of AIMS, Ulrich Paquet and Karin-Therese Howell #AI #Africa #Science
November 30, 2025 at 10:55 AM
Reposted by Federico Gueli
558!! That's amazingly impressive. Could your capital City do that?
🇺🇦 Ukrainian Air Defence shot down:
▪️558/596 strike UAVs;
▪️1/5 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles;
▪️12/23 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles;
▪️4/4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles;
▪️2/4 Kh-59/69 guided aviation missiles.
▪️558/596 strike UAVs;
▪️1/5 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles;
▪️12/23 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles;
▪️4/4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles;
▪️2/4 Kh-59/69 guided aviation missiles.
November 29, 2025 at 12:47 PM
558!! That's amazingly impressive. Could your capital City do that?
Reposted by Federico Gueli
A French postdoc at University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Lauric Reynes, who works on kelp and seaweeds evolution, saved a baby hammerhead shark in the Ala Wai Canal in Honolulu by removing a hook from near its eyes. Foreigners make America great.
www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2025/11/29/b...
www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2025/11/29/b...
November 29, 2025 at 5:10 PM
A French postdoc at University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Lauric Reynes, who works on kelp and seaweeds evolution, saved a baby hammerhead shark in the Ala Wai Canal in Honolulu by removing a hook from near its eyes. Foreigners make America great.
www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2025/11/29/b...
www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2025/11/29/b...
Reposted by Federico Gueli
For Europe (excluding the UK), BA.3.2.* is holding a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus".
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
🧵
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
🧵
November 29, 2025 at 4:05 AM
For Europe (excluding the UK), BA.3.2.* is holding a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus".
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
🧵
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
🧵
Reposted by Federico Gueli
いつの間にか、ヨーロッパでBA.3.2*がイギリス以外で対XFG.*で日に4.6.%の強い成長率を見せている。ホリデーシーズンにクロスオーバーが予想されるまでに。
日本では未だニンバス支配が崩れていないように思われますが、どうなるのかな🤔
とにかく、やっぱりこの間出たSato Laboのワクチン💉効果論文がBA.3.2にも対する評価も入っていたので後でもう一度ざっくり読んでおこう。
日本では未だニンバス支配が崩れていないように思われますが、どうなるのかな🤔
とにかく、やっぱりこの間出たSato Laboのワクチン💉効果論文がBA.3.2にも対する評価も入っていたので後でもう一度ざっくり読んでおこう。
For Europe (excluding the UK), BA.3.2.* is holding a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus".
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
🧵
At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season.
🧵
November 29, 2025 at 10:17 PM
いつの間にか、ヨーロッパでBA.3.2*がイギリス以外で対XFG.*で日に4.6.%の強い成長率を見せている。ホリデーシーズンにクロスオーバーが予想されるまでに。
日本では未だニンバス支配が崩れていないように思われますが、どうなるのかな🤔
とにかく、やっぱりこの間出たSato Laboのワクチン💉効果論文がBA.3.2にも対する評価も入っていたので後でもう一度ざっくり読んでおこう。
日本では未だニンバス支配が崩れていないように思われますが、どうなるのかな🤔
とにかく、やっぱりこの間出たSato Laboのワクチン💉効果論文がBA.3.2にも対する評価も入っていたので後でもう一度ざっくり読んでおこう。
BA.3.2.2 is very likely the fastest lineage now, especially looking at past 5 weeks while probably we are experiencing a global low in SC2 circulation.
I don't see any BA.2-derived sub-lineage, designated or not, now being as fast as it
Main competitor are XFG.10.4 (435S) and XFW family.
I don't see any BA.2-derived sub-lineage, designated or not, now being as fast as it
Main competitor are XFG.10.4 (435S) and XFW family.
November 30, 2025 at 12:12 AM
BA.3.2.2 is very likely the fastest lineage now, especially looking at past 5 weeks while probably we are experiencing a global low in SC2 circulation.
I don't see any BA.2-derived sub-lineage, designated or not, now being as fast as it
Main competitor are XFG.10.4 (435S) and XFW family.
I don't see any BA.2-derived sub-lineage, designated or not, now being as fast as it
Main competitor are XFG.10.4 (435S) and XFW family.
Reposted by Federico Gueli
Happy US Thanksgiving to those who celebrate!
It’s a dark world at the moment, so finding moments of joy and brightness is important to replenish our achy breaky hearts
It’s a dark world at the moment, so finding moments of joy and brightness is important to replenish our achy breaky hearts
a cartoon of charlie brown and snoopy holding a turkey with the words happy thanksgiving sweetie
Alt: a cartoon of charlie brown and snoopy holding a turkey with the words happy thanksgiving sweetie
media.tenor.com
November 27, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Happy US Thanksgiving to those who celebrate!
It’s a dark world at the moment, so finding moments of joy and brightness is important to replenish our achy breaky hearts
It’s a dark world at the moment, so finding moments of joy and brightness is important to replenish our achy breaky hearts
Reposted by Federico Gueli
6/ The simulation showed that where the wind blew, the virus followed.
In the first few weeks of the virus’ spread, I found that farms downwind were 20x as likely to see outbreaks.
In the first few weeks of the virus’ spread, I found that farms downwind were 20x as likely to see outbreaks.
November 18, 2025 at 9:11 PM
6/ The simulation showed that where the wind blew, the virus followed.
In the first few weeks of the virus’ spread, I found that farms downwind were 20x as likely to see outbreaks.
In the first few weeks of the virus’ spread, I found that farms downwind were 20x as likely to see outbreaks.
Reposted by Federico Gueli
BA.3.2 detected again in New Zealand wastewater 💩
Week ended:
💠5 Oct 3.7%
💠2 Nov 1.4%
💠9 Nov 2.0%
#BA32 🎃
Variants with a national percentage of less than 1% are not shown
1/
Week ended:
💠5 Oct 3.7%
💠2 Nov 1.4%
💠9 Nov 2.0%
#BA32 🎃
Variants with a national percentage of less than 1% are not shown
1/
November 27, 2025 at 4:46 AM
BA.3.2 detected again in New Zealand wastewater 💩
Week ended:
💠5 Oct 3.7%
💠2 Nov 1.4%
💠9 Nov 2.0%
#BA32 🎃
Variants with a national percentage of less than 1% are not shown
1/
Week ended:
💠5 Oct 3.7%
💠2 Nov 1.4%
💠9 Nov 2.0%
#BA32 🎃
Variants with a national percentage of less than 1% are not shown
1/
Reposted by Federico Gueli
Wastewater variants for week ended 9 Nov 2025:
💠NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus) 41.9%
💠XFG (Stratus) 23.0%
💠PE.1.4 17.2%
💠MC.10.2.1 9.6%
💠BA.3.2 3.7%
45% of NZ covered by testing:
💠Auckland
💠Rotorua
💠Wellington
💠Christchurch
💠Dunedin
💠Queenstown
poops.nz
2/
💠NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus) 41.9%
💠XFG (Stratus) 23.0%
💠PE.1.4 17.2%
💠MC.10.2.1 9.6%
💠BA.3.2 3.7%
45% of NZ covered by testing:
💠Auckland
💠Rotorua
💠Wellington
💠Christchurch
💠Dunedin
💠Queenstown
poops.nz
2/
ESR Wastewater Surveillance
poops.nz
November 27, 2025 at 4:46 AM
Wastewater variants for week ended 9 Nov 2025:
💠NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus) 41.9%
💠XFG (Stratus) 23.0%
💠PE.1.4 17.2%
💠MC.10.2.1 9.6%
💠BA.3.2 3.7%
45% of NZ covered by testing:
💠Auckland
💠Rotorua
💠Wellington
💠Christchurch
💠Dunedin
💠Queenstown
poops.nz
2/
💠NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus) 41.9%
💠XFG (Stratus) 23.0%
💠PE.1.4 17.2%
💠MC.10.2.1 9.6%
💠BA.3.2 3.7%
45% of NZ covered by testing:
💠Auckland
💠Rotorua
💠Wellington
💠Christchurch
💠Dunedin
💠Queenstown
poops.nz
2/
9 more BA.3.2 yesterday
4 SA, 1 Ireland, 2 QLD, 2 Germany,
4 SA, 1 Ireland, 2 QLD, 2 Germany,
November 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM
9 more BA.3.2 yesterday
4 SA, 1 Ireland, 2 QLD, 2 Germany,
4 SA, 1 Ireland, 2 QLD, 2 Germany,