Solid Evidence
@solidevidence.bsky.social
Molecular virologist, sewage sage and wastewater wizard.
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
BA.3.2 update. A few more patient sequences appeared, so the score is now 119 to 4.
The 2 states where it has been most prevalent (Maine and Rhode Island) have had virtually no patient sequencing.
#shitdon'tlie
The 2 states where it has been most prevalent (Maine and Rhode Island) have had virtually no patient sequencing.
#shitdon'tlie
February 12, 2026 at 1:03 AM
BA.3.2 update. A few more patient sequences appeared, so the score is now 119 to 4.
The 2 states where it has been most prevalent (Maine and Rhode Island) have had virtually no patient sequencing.
#shitdon'tlie
The 2 states where it has been most prevalent (Maine and Rhode Island) have had virtually no patient sequencing.
#shitdon'tlie
The North Carolina variant appeared again in December, so I decided to add it to the dashboard. NC-2
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
February 8, 2026 at 11:53 PM
The North Carolina variant appeared again in December, so I decided to add it to the dashboard. NC-2
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
BA.3.2 update. We're up to 89 US wastewater detections. It's around 2% of the total now.
February 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM
BA.3.2 update. We're up to 89 US wastewater detections. It's around 2% of the total now.
I assume that everyone that talks about how awful AI is for the planet rode their bike to work today.
(chart generated by AI)
(chart generated by AI)
February 4, 2026 at 5:44 PM
I assume that everyone that talks about how awful AI is for the planet rode their bike to work today.
(chart generated by AI)
(chart generated by AI)
Small landmark. As of last week we've identified over 1,000 unique vertebrate 12s sequences from our species diversity project.
60% are fish.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
60% are fish.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Composition of Genetic Material in Wastewater
dholab.github.io
February 2, 2026 at 6:16 PM
Small landmark. As of last week we've identified over 1,000 unique vertebrate 12s sequences from our species diversity project.
60% are fish.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
60% are fish.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
So far there has only been one US patient reported with BA.3.2.
Meanwhile, these are the wastewater detections to date.
Want to know what's really going on? Check the wastewater; we don't miss shit.
Meanwhile, these are the wastewater detections to date.
Want to know what's really going on? Check the wastewater; we don't miss shit.
January 28, 2026 at 6:01 PM
So far there has only been one US patient reported with BA.3.2.
Meanwhile, these are the wastewater detections to date.
Want to know what's really going on? Check the wastewater; we don't miss shit.
Meanwhile, these are the wastewater detections to date.
Want to know what's really going on? Check the wastewater; we don't miss shit.
More zoo creatures. We’ve detected 3 different penguin species across our 12 sampling sites.
The first site was Boise, where we detected a banded penguin (matches Humboldt, African, or Magellanic).
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The first site was Boise, where we detected a banded penguin (matches Humboldt, African, or Magellanic).
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January 26, 2026 at 8:20 PM
More zoo creatures. We’ve detected 3 different penguin species across our 12 sampling sites.
The first site was Boise, where we detected a banded penguin (matches Humboldt, African, or Magellanic).
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The first site was Boise, where we detected a banded penguin (matches Humboldt, African, or Magellanic).
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I missed this, there is a second site (Boston) where Hippos showed up in our data, but there it was pygmy hippopotamus.
Checks out, apparently they have a colony at the New England zoo in Boston.
Checks out, apparently they have a colony at the New England zoo in Boston.
January 26, 2026 at 2:57 PM
I missed this, there is a second site (Boston) where Hippos showed up in our data, but there it was pygmy hippopotamus.
Checks out, apparently they have a colony at the New England zoo in Boston.
Checks out, apparently they have a colony at the New England zoo in Boston.
We've made some updates to our dashboard if you want to check it out.
Influenza C is having a strong year.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Influenza C is having a strong year.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
January 25, 2026 at 7:27 PM
We've made some updates to our dashboard if you want to check it out.
Influenza C is having a strong year.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
Influenza C is having a strong year.
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
We found a new (I think) cryptic lineage this week.
I know I say this all the time, but this is really weird.
Warning, this thread is for nerds only.
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I know I say this all the time, but this is really weird.
Warning, this thread is for nerds only.
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January 24, 2026 at 7:48 PM
We found a new (I think) cryptic lineage this week.
I know I say this all the time, but this is really weird.
Warning, this thread is for nerds only.
1/
I know I say this all the time, but this is really weird.
Warning, this thread is for nerds only.
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This is cool, the KC zoo only has 1 or 2 hippos, but we've detected them in KC wastewater 9 times.
Usually I get in trouble when I talk about detecting individuals from wastewater, I hope they don't feel like I've invaded their privacy.
Usually I get in trouble when I talk about detecting individuals from wastewater, I hope they don't feel like I've invaded their privacy.
January 24, 2026 at 6:09 PM
This is cool, the KC zoo only has 1 or 2 hippos, but we've detected them in KC wastewater 9 times.
Usually I get in trouble when I talk about detecting individuals from wastewater, I hope they don't feel like I've invaded their privacy.
Usually I get in trouble when I talk about detecting individuals from wastewater, I hope they don't feel like I've invaded their privacy.
It's a slow but persistent wave.
22 more wastewater detections of BA.3.2 (including ALL recent samples form RI). It's staring to be the dominant lineage in many cases.
I think the score on wastewater vs patient surveillance is now 44-to-1
22 more wastewater detections of BA.3.2 (including ALL recent samples form RI). It's staring to be the dominant lineage in many cases.
I think the score on wastewater vs patient surveillance is now 44-to-1
January 22, 2026 at 1:19 PM
It's a slow but persistent wave.
22 more wastewater detections of BA.3.2 (including ALL recent samples form RI). It's staring to be the dominant lineage in many cases.
I think the score on wastewater vs patient surveillance is now 44-to-1
22 more wastewater detections of BA.3.2 (including ALL recent samples form RI). It's staring to be the dominant lineage in many cases.
I think the score on wastewater vs patient surveillance is now 44-to-1
Who knew? This confused me.
The second most prevalent fish in Palo Alto wastewater is Largemouth bass.
I kept trying to find the lab that was using it for toxicology studies or something, but I was barking up the wrong tree.
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dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
The second most prevalent fish in Palo Alto wastewater is Largemouth bass.
I kept trying to find the lab that was using it for toxicology studies or something, but I was barking up the wrong tree.
1/
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
January 19, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Who knew? This confused me.
The second most prevalent fish in Palo Alto wastewater is Largemouth bass.
I kept trying to find the lab that was using it for toxicology studies or something, but I was barking up the wrong tree.
1/
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
The second most prevalent fish in Palo Alto wastewater is Largemouth bass.
I kept trying to find the lab that was using it for toxicology studies or something, but I was barking up the wrong tree.
1/
dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
I'm behind, I didn't realize that the H5N1 in Wisconsin dairy cattle last month was actually D1.1.
That means that there have been at least 3 independent spillovers into dairy cattle in the last 2+ years.
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www.avma.org/news/wildlif...
That means that there have been at least 3 independent spillovers into dairy cattle in the last 2+ years.
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www.avma.org/news/wildlif...
Wildlife likely spread H5N1 to Wisconsin dairy herd
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza (type A H5N1) in a Wisconsin dairy herd via a distinct D1.1 genotype from wildlife spillover. Unlike the common B3.13...
www.avma.org
January 19, 2026 at 5:29 PM
I'm behind, I didn't realize that the H5N1 in Wisconsin dairy cattle last month was actually D1.1.
That means that there have been at least 3 independent spillovers into dairy cattle in the last 2+ years.
1/
www.avma.org/news/wildlif...
That means that there have been at least 3 independent spillovers into dairy cattle in the last 2+ years.
1/
www.avma.org/news/wildlif...
Seven more detections of BA.3.2 from US wastewater.
It's fanning out, this week it includes detections in CA, UT, and NYC.
It's fanning out, this week it includes detections in CA, UT, and NYC.
January 7, 2026 at 7:31 PM
Seven more detections of BA.3.2 from US wastewater.
It's fanning out, this week it includes detections in CA, UT, and NYC.
It's fanning out, this week it includes detections in CA, UT, and NYC.
BA.3.2 update. It’s picking up speed.
7 new US wastewater detections in the last week, mostly from New England.
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7 new US wastewater detections in the last week, mostly from New England.
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January 1, 2026 at 5:54 PM
BA.3.2 update. It’s picking up speed.
7 new US wastewater detections in the last week, mostly from New England.
1/
7 new US wastewater detections in the last week, mostly from New England.
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We've now had 7 consecutive sequencing plates where we detected Measles somewhere, and they are all independent.
December 30, 2025 at 9:36 PM
We've now had 7 consecutive sequencing plates where we detected Measles somewhere, and they are all independent.
This is kind of unexpected.
There's been a big December surge in enterovirus D68 in every single West coast sewershed we track (mostly CA and including a few not listed), but nowhere else in the country.
Everywhere else there was a surge in Fall that has since died out.
There's been a big December surge in enterovirus D68 in every single West coast sewershed we track (mostly CA and including a few not listed), but nowhere else in the country.
Everywhere else there was a surge in Fall that has since died out.
December 28, 2025 at 10:02 PM
This is kind of unexpected.
There's been a big December surge in enterovirus D68 in every single West coast sewershed we track (mostly CA and including a few not listed), but nowhere else in the country.
Everywhere else there was a surge in Fall that has since died out.
There's been a big December surge in enterovirus D68 in every single West coast sewershed we track (mostly CA and including a few not listed), but nowhere else in the country.
Everywhere else there was a surge in Fall that has since died out.
Another BA.3.2. This time from Dulles airport on Dec 7.
December 24, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Another BA.3.2. This time from Dulles airport on Dec 7.
Three more BA.3.2 wastewater detections this week. Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and California.
Wastewater: 8
Patient detections: 0
Wastewater: 8
Patient detections: 0
December 17, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Three more BA.3.2 wastewater detections this week. Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and California.
Wastewater: 8
Patient detections: 0
Wastewater: 8
Patient detections: 0
We've been doing wastewater metagenomics for 2 years.
In the first 20 months we never detected measles once.
However, in the last 4 months we've detected it 10 times across numerous states.
It's going endemic again; good reason to get vaccinated.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
In the first 20 months we never detected measles once.
However, in the last 4 months we've detected it 10 times across numerous states.
It's going endemic again; good reason to get vaccinated.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
DOH MONITORING FIRST WASTEWATER DETECTION OF MEASLES IN KAUAʻI COUNTY
HONOLULU — The Hawaiʻi Department of Health (DOH) is monitoring a positive wastewater sample for measles virus, the first wastewater detection of the virus for Kauaʻi County. The sample was collected ...
https://health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroom/doh-monitoring-first-wastewater-detection-of-measles-in-kauaʻi-county/
December 16, 2025 at 5:29 PM
We've been doing wastewater metagenomics for 2 years.
In the first 20 months we never detected measles once.
However, in the last 4 months we've detected it 10 times across numerous states.
It's going endemic again; good reason to get vaccinated.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
In the first 20 months we never detected measles once.
However, in the last 4 months we've detected it 10 times across numerous states.
It's going endemic again; good reason to get vaccinated.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
Got the sniffles, Parainfluenzavirus 2 is having a big year. [one of many common cold viruses]
Curious, it was virtually absent last year.
Curious, it was virtually absent last year.
December 16, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Got the sniffles, Parainfluenzavirus 2 is having a big year. [one of many common cold viruses]
Curious, it was virtually absent last year.
Curious, it was virtually absent last year.
Three more BA.3.2 detections from US wastewater. Rhode Island (different sewershed, but near the previous one), Vermont, and Florida. All from CDC NWSS data.
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
December 11, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Three more BA.3.2 detections from US wastewater. Rhode Island (different sewershed, but near the previous one), Vermont, and Florida. All from CDC NWSS data.
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
Does anyone know what strain of H5N1 is responsible for the most recent poultry outbreaks, particularly in Indiana? D.1.1 I presume?
December 7, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Does anyone know what strain of H5N1 is responsible for the most recent poultry outbreaks, particularly in Indiana? D.1.1 I presume?
I agree. Wasn't sure before, but I think BA.3.2 is probably going to start accelerating.
One thing we've consistently seen is that if an emerging divergent variant competes evenly w/the most advanced circulating variants, it will eventually predominate. We saw this with XBB & BA.2.86, and a similar pattern holds among various minor lineages. 1/3
Seven new BA.3.2.2 from Germany today spotted by @JosetteSchoenma. They are genetically dispersed and are therefore clearly not a cluster. As @snpoehlm says, this is ~5% of all sequences and ~15% in North Rhine-Westphalia. Collection dates Nov 6-18.
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
December 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
I agree. Wasn't sure before, but I think BA.3.2 is probably going to start accelerating.