Solid Evidence
@solidevidence.bsky.social
Molecular virologist, sewage sage and wastewater wizard.
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
Professor at University of Missouri, School of Medicine
This is kind of unexpected.
There's been a big December surge in enterovirus D68 in every single West coast sewershed we track (mostly CA and including a few not listed), but nowhere else in the country.
Everywhere else there was a surge in Fall that has since died out.
There's been a big December surge in enterovirus D68 in every single West coast sewershed we track (mostly CA and including a few not listed), but nowhere else in the country.
Everywhere else there was a surge in Fall that has since died out.
December 28, 2025 at 10:02 PM
This is kind of unexpected.
There's been a big December surge in enterovirus D68 in every single West coast sewershed we track (mostly CA and including a few not listed), but nowhere else in the country.
Everywhere else there was a surge in Fall that has since died out.
There's been a big December surge in enterovirus D68 in every single West coast sewershed we track (mostly CA and including a few not listed), but nowhere else in the country.
Everywhere else there was a surge in Fall that has since died out.
Another BA.3.2. This time from Dulles airport on Dec 7.
December 24, 2025 at 8:47 PM
Another BA.3.2. This time from Dulles airport on Dec 7.
Three more BA.3.2 wastewater detections this week. Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and California.
Wastewater: 8
Patient detections: 0
Wastewater: 8
Patient detections: 0
December 17, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Three more BA.3.2 wastewater detections this week. Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and California.
Wastewater: 8
Patient detections: 0
Wastewater: 8
Patient detections: 0
We've been doing wastewater metagenomics for 2 years.
In the first 20 months we never detected measles once.
However, in the last 4 months we've detected it 10 times across numerous states.
It's going endemic again; good reason to get vaccinated.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
In the first 20 months we never detected measles once.
However, in the last 4 months we've detected it 10 times across numerous states.
It's going endemic again; good reason to get vaccinated.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
DOH MONITORING FIRST WASTEWATER DETECTION OF MEASLES IN KAUAʻI COUNTY
HONOLULU — The Hawaiʻi Department of Health (DOH) is monitoring a positive wastewater sample for measles virus, the first wastewater detection of the virus for Kauaʻi County. The sample was collected ...
https://health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroom/doh-monitoring-first-wastewater-detection-of-measles-in-kauaʻi-county/
December 16, 2025 at 5:29 PM
We've been doing wastewater metagenomics for 2 years.
In the first 20 months we never detected measles once.
However, in the last 4 months we've detected it 10 times across numerous states.
It's going endemic again; good reason to get vaccinated.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
In the first 20 months we never detected measles once.
However, in the last 4 months we've detected it 10 times across numerous states.
It's going endemic again; good reason to get vaccinated.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
Got the sniffles, Parainfluenzavirus 2 is having a big year. [one of many common cold viruses]
Curious, it was virtually absent last year.
Curious, it was virtually absent last year.
December 16, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Got the sniffles, Parainfluenzavirus 2 is having a big year. [one of many common cold viruses]
Curious, it was virtually absent last year.
Curious, it was virtually absent last year.
Three more BA.3.2 detections from US wastewater. Rhode Island (different sewershed, but near the previous one), Vermont, and Florida. All from CDC NWSS data.
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
December 11, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Three more BA.3.2 detections from US wastewater. Rhode Island (different sewershed, but near the previous one), Vermont, and Florida. All from CDC NWSS data.
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
Looks like it might be getting a foothold in New England.
@snpoehlm.bsky.social @ryanhisner.bsky.social @siamosolocani.bsky.social
Does anyone know what strain of H5N1 is responsible for the most recent poultry outbreaks, particularly in Indiana? D.1.1 I presume?
December 7, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Does anyone know what strain of H5N1 is responsible for the most recent poultry outbreaks, particularly in Indiana? D.1.1 I presume?
I agree. Wasn't sure before, but I think BA.3.2 is probably going to start accelerating.
One thing we've consistently seen is that if an emerging divergent variant competes evenly w/the most advanced circulating variants, it will eventually predominate. We saw this with XBB & BA.2.86, and a similar pattern holds among various minor lineages. 1/3
Seven new BA.3.2.2 from Germany today spotted by @JosetteSchoenma. They are genetically dispersed and are therefore clearly not a cluster. As @snpoehlm says, this is ~5% of all sequences and ~15% in North Rhine-Westphalia. Collection dates Nov 6-18.
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
One has a very interesting RBD mutation... 1/2
December 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
I agree. Wasn't sure before, but I think BA.3.2 is probably going to start accelerating.
Informal poll:
A few years ago we tracked down a cryptic lineage through wastewater, but at the time we didn't know they were coming from people.
1/
A few years ago we tracked down a cryptic lineage through wastewater, but at the time we didn't know they were coming from people.
1/
December 4, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Informal poll:
A few years ago we tracked down a cryptic lineage through wastewater, but at the time we didn't know they were coming from people.
1/
A few years ago we tracked down a cryptic lineage through wastewater, but at the time we didn't know they were coming from people.
1/
Another US wastewater detection of BA.3.2.2 (from CDC-NWSS surveillance)
This time from Austin on 11/19
The score:
Wastewater 2
Patient surveillance 0
This time from Austin on 11/19
The score:
Wastewater 2
Patient surveillance 0
December 3, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Another US wastewater detection of BA.3.2.2 (from CDC-NWSS surveillance)
This time from Austin on 11/19
The score:
Wastewater 2
Patient surveillance 0
This time from Austin on 11/19
The score:
Wastewater 2
Patient surveillance 0
I’ve got another wastewater mystery.
This one from Southern California, and it’s pretty fishy.
1/
This one from Southern California, and it’s pretty fishy.
1/
December 2, 2025 at 12:56 AM
I’ve got another wastewater mystery.
This one from Southern California, and it’s pretty fishy.
1/
This one from Southern California, and it’s pretty fishy.
1/
The Nebraska cryptic lineage appeared again this week. It really puts BA.3.2.2 in perspective.
November 28, 2025 at 3:32 PM
The Nebraska cryptic lineage appeared again this week. It really puts BA.3.2.2 in perspective.
Another US BA.3.2 wastewater detection.
This time from Bristol County, RI on Nov 11. It was about a third of the seqs.
I wonder if it was someone who flew back from Australia through SF?
@ryanhisner.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social @rajlabn.bsky.social
This time from Bristol County, RI on Nov 11. It was about a third of the seqs.
I wonder if it was someone who flew back from Australia through SF?
@ryanhisner.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social @rajlabn.bsky.social
November 26, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Another US BA.3.2 wastewater detection.
This time from Bristol County, RI on Nov 11. It was about a third of the seqs.
I wonder if it was someone who flew back from Australia through SF?
@ryanhisner.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social @rajlabn.bsky.social
This time from Bristol County, RI on Nov 11. It was about a third of the seqs.
I wonder if it was someone who flew back from Australia through SF?
@ryanhisner.bsky.social @snpoehlm.bsky.social @rajlabn.bsky.social
Flu Overview update.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
What should we expect this flu season?
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
November 25, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Flu Overview update.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
A month ago we detected flu in less than 10% of samples.
In the most recent batch over 50% had FluA (H1N1 and/or H3N2) and 75% had FluC.
Numbers were low, but flu season is starting.
What should we expect this flu season?
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
November 23, 2025 at 8:07 PM
What should we expect this flu season?
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
Here’s a forecast from a wastewater perspective (because sh*t don’t lie)
1/
This is wild.
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
November 21, 2025 at 3:19 PM
This is wild.
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
Remember the NJ crytic lineage?
I posted 18 months ago that the Spike was too divergent to predict ACE2 binding, and asked if someone else could figure it out.
Some colleagues took me up on it.
Guess what they found?
1/
This is a very sad day for public health and evidence-based science in general.
November 20, 2025 at 3:17 PM
This is a very sad day for public health and evidence-based science in general.
Oh crap. There was a BA.3.2 in California last week.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
November 19, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Oh crap. There was a BA.3.2 in California last week.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
It's GBW and 'environmental', so presumably from plane waste.
@ryanhisner.bsky.social
Had you heard about it? Did they miss it? It was only 5% of the sample, but very clear.
Guess what we're hunting for.
November 10, 2025 at 6:41 PM
Guess what we're hunting for.
Are prickly pears or their fruit seasonal?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
November 4, 2025 at 3:15 PM
Are prickly pears or their fruit seasonal?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
There are several cactus viruses that appear seasonally (Aug-Oct) just about everywhere. I can't think of any other cacti that are commonly eaten.
Or maybe it's infecting something else?
Can you take a quarter cup of composite sewage, simply ask ‘what’s in there?’, and find out all of the pathogens circulating in that community?
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
1/
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
1/
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Untargeted longitudinal ultra deep metagenomic sequencing of wastewater provides a comprehensive readout of expected and unexpected viral pathogens
Wastewater surveillance has become a powerful tool to monitor circulating viruses at a community level. Currently, most wastewater surveillance efforts use target-based approaches such as quantitative...
www.medrxiv.org
October 31, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Can you take a quarter cup of composite sewage, simply ask ‘what’s in there?’, and find out all of the pathogens circulating in that community?
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
1/
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
That is the question we asked in our latest pre-print.
Turns out you can.
1/
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Help me out, I’ve got another wastewater virus mystery.
This one really blows my mind.
1/
This one really blows my mind.
1/
October 24, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Help me out, I’ve got another wastewater virus mystery.
This one really blows my mind.
1/
This one really blows my mind.
1/
Warning, we've had more measles detections from wastewater in the last month than in the last 2 years combined.
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
DOH MONITORING FIRST WASTEWATER DETECTION OF MEASLES IN KAUAʻI COUNTY
HONOLULU — The Hawaiʻi Department of Health (DOH) is monitoring a positive wastewater sample for measles virus, the first wastewater detection of the virus for Kauaʻi County. The sample was collected ...
https://health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroom/doh-monitoring-first-wastewater-detection-of-measles-in-kauaʻi-county/
October 23, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Warning, we've had more measles detections from wastewater in the last month than in the last 2 years combined.
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
We don't have every site on our dashboard yet, and we don't have Measles on the dashboard because we hadn't been seeing it. Things change.
health.hawaii.gov/news/newsroo...
It looks like Coeur d’Alene, ID cryptic is gone for now, but it has still managed to answer a lot of lingering questions for me about SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and what to expect next.
Here's a whole genome summary and interpretation.
1/
Here's a whole genome summary and interpretation.
1/
October 17, 2025 at 9:21 PM
It looks like Coeur d’Alene, ID cryptic is gone for now, but it has still managed to answer a lot of lingering questions for me about SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and what to expect next.
Here's a whole genome summary and interpretation.
1/
Here's a whole genome summary and interpretation.
1/
Cryptic update.
GPHL just updated their July sequencing and the Georgia variant is playing peek-a-boo with me.
It was only present in one of the July samples, and it was a tiny fraction of the total sequence, it but it was clearly present on July 22.
1/
GPHL just updated their July sequencing and the Georgia variant is playing peek-a-boo with me.
It was only present in one of the July samples, and it was a tiny fraction of the total sequence, it but it was clearly present on July 22.
1/
October 17, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Cryptic update.
GPHL just updated their July sequencing and the Georgia variant is playing peek-a-boo with me.
It was only present in one of the July samples, and it was a tiny fraction of the total sequence, it but it was clearly present on July 22.
1/
GPHL just updated their July sequencing and the Georgia variant is playing peek-a-boo with me.
It was only present in one of the July samples, and it was a tiny fraction of the total sequence, it but it was clearly present on July 22.
1/