Jarrett Seidler
@seidler.bsky.social
senior writer @baseballprospectus.com, longtime crank, social circle online circle friend of the show, here more now
half plus 7 really is just one of those things that works
November 13, 2025 at 10:03 PM
half plus 7 really is just one of those things that works
I can't believe there are two separate baseball thoughts from almost the exact same time correctly predicting this but as a joke. Bill James Offline did the same thing about comparative voting systems in the New Historical Abstract!
Sometimes you run across an old quote that stops you cold. From a Jayson Stark article in January 2000:
November 13, 2025 at 9:42 PM
I can't believe there are two separate baseball thoughts from almost the exact same time correctly predicting this but as a joke. Bill James Offline did the same thing about comparative voting systems in the New Historical Abstract!
the obsession with live "pro scouting" in the sense of the very specific art form that we all did in the mid-late-2010s is fascinating to me
November 13, 2025 at 9:01 PM
the obsession with live "pro scouting" in the sense of the very specific art form that we all did in the mid-late-2010s is fascinating to me
so many people I have known for so many years have just had their brains completely cooked during this decade, to the point that I often feel like I am the one no longer living in reality
November 11, 2025 at 9:12 PM
so many people I have known for so many years have just had their brains completely cooked during this decade, to the point that I often feel like I am the one no longer living in reality
if he suffers an early hard decline or a career altering injury, he probably hasn't already done enough to get in easily. The odds of those things happening are, while still pretty small, way larger than Mets fans acknowledge
@seidler.bsky.social Big fan of the show man. You said Lindor is "possibly" on a HoF trajectory; I think he's basically a sure thing assuming he doesn't fall apart in the next year or two. 60.5 fWAR already, JAWS and WAR7 are there, counting stats are more than on pace, what am I missing?
November 11, 2025 at 5:09 PM
if he suffers an early hard decline or a career altering injury, he probably hasn't already done enough to get in easily. The odds of those things happening are, while still pretty small, way larger than Mets fans acknowledge
Reposted by Jarrett Seidler
I wrote about a system so thin I started making Dr. Seuss jokes instead of trying to ordinally rank the 5th round sixth year college senior closer against the 4th round up and down bench outfielder in the teens www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
2026 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects | Baseball Prospectus
Top-heavy is a common descriptor for farm systems, but it's truer here than in most places.
www.baseballprospectus.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I wrote about a system so thin I started making Dr. Seuss jokes instead of trying to ordinally rank the 5th round sixth year college senior closer against the 4th round up and down bench outfielder in the teens www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
I don’t think there’s any there there this time but I really really really don’t like that two people who cover the Red Sox had a very consequential vote on whether Roman Anthony got paid a very different X or Y in the coming years
November 11, 2025 at 1:01 AM
I don’t think there’s any there there this time but I really really really don’t like that two people who cover the Red Sox had a very consequential vote on whether Roman Anthony got paid a very different X or Y in the coming years
Reposted by Jarrett Seidler
2026 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects
by Jarrett Seidler (@seidler.bsky.social) and BP Prospect Staff
www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
by Jarrett Seidler (@seidler.bsky.social) and BP Prospect Staff
www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
2026 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects | Baseball Prospectus
Top-heavy is a common descriptor for farm systems, but it's truer here than in most places.
www.baseballprospectus.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:39 PM
2026 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects
by Jarrett Seidler (@seidler.bsky.social) and BP Prospect Staff
www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
by Jarrett Seidler (@seidler.bsky.social) and BP Prospect Staff
www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
Reposted by Jarrett Seidler
It is hard to really explain how bad the last two international signing classes have been. The 2024 group is a disaster and 2025 includes a neat overage RHP, an interesting SP in the Bader deal, and a couple “could be interesting in 3 years” hitters
I did many hours of work on their complex league teams only to find almost nothing worth writing about. I don’t think guys like John Spikerman or Griff McGarry would warrant a mention in any other team’s report and they both would’ve made an ordinal top 20 here.
November 10, 2025 at 5:26 PM
It is hard to really explain how bad the last two international signing classes have been. The 2024 group is a disaster and 2025 includes a neat overage RHP, an interesting SP in the Bader deal, and a couple “could be interesting in 3 years” hitters
I am not sure I have ever seen a wider divergence of opinions from people I think know ball on a player more than on Tatsuya Imai
November 10, 2025 at 5:11 PM
I am not sure I have ever seen a wider divergence of opinions from people I think know ball on a player more than on Tatsuya Imai
I wrote about a system so thin I started making Dr. Seuss jokes instead of trying to ordinally rank the 5th round sixth year college senior closer against the 4th round up and down bench outfielder in the teens www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
2026 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects | Baseball Prospectus
Top-heavy is a common descriptor for farm systems, but it's truer here than in most places.
www.baseballprospectus.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:26 PM
I wrote about a system so thin I started making Dr. Seuss jokes instead of trying to ordinally rank the 5th round sixth year college senior closer against the 4th round up and down bench outfielder in the teens www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
A lot of well meaning people on this website got really scared about nothing here a couple weeks ago because a few aggregators who don’t understand SCOTUS procedure (or worse, just wanted clicks) posted very deceptive information about a routine procedural matter on the road to doing exactly this
#BREAKING: Over no public dissents, #SCOTUS denies Kim Davis's petition asking the justices to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges (which recognized federal constitutional protections for same-sex marriage):
www.supremecourt.gov/orders/court...
www.supremecourt.gov/orders/court...
www.supremecourt.gov
November 10, 2025 at 4:09 PM
A lot of well meaning people on this website got really scared about nothing here a couple weeks ago because a few aggregators who don’t understand SCOTUS procedure (or worse, just wanted clicks) posted very deceptive information about a routine procedural matter on the road to doing exactly this
Yes, the risk/reward calculus that was supposed to direct these impulses to video games or tattoos or a hundred other things that serve the same purpose without these dire consequences didn’t go right in his head
If anything, I think it illustrates how irrational it is or, if that's not the right word, that it serves a different dopamine response in the brain than purely making money.
November 9, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Yes, the risk/reward calculus that was supposed to direct these impulses to video games or tattoos or a hundred other things that serve the same purpose without these dire consequences didn’t go right in his head
A lot of people who do not even a little understand addictive gambling or compulsive risky thrill seeking behavior are going to post about stuff like gambling sponsorships and asking how Clase would throw away millions to run a gambling scheme for thousands. Pay them no mind.
November 9, 2025 at 6:59 PM
A lot of people who do not even a little understand addictive gambling or compulsive risky thrill seeking behavior are going to post about stuff like gambling sponsorships and asking how Clase would throw away millions to run a gambling scheme for thousands. Pay them no mind.
Death By Lightning is absolutely incredible for political history buffs and also just has some great acting and cinematography, A+ recommendation
November 9, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Death By Lightning is absolutely incredible for political history buffs and also just has some great acting and cinematography, A+ recommendation
I think there’s some chance a really smart team is going to sign him with a very specific swing tweak and he’s going to be great but a lot of the outcome range here is “not a major league player”
My one strong free agent take is I am scared to fuckin death of Murakami's NPB contact numbers and I would not touch him with someone else's ten-foot pole.
If I end up being wrong about this that's fine I'll take the L.
If I end up being wrong about this that's fine I'll take the L.
November 8, 2025 at 6:04 PM
I think there’s some chance a really smart team is going to sign him with a very specific swing tweak and he’s going to be great but a lot of the outcome range here is “not a major league player”
Email him and ask
How likely is it that Dick Monfort watched Moneyball on TNT over the weekend and told the team they needed to hire Peter Brand stat?
November 6, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Email him and ask
It's only been a few minutes and I haven't talked to any member of the Monfort family, but I can't find a single person within the industry who thinks the Rockies have any chance to turn this around under a guy who has been a shitty football executive for a decade
November 6, 2025 at 10:29 PM
It's only been a few minutes and I haven't talked to any member of the Monfort family, but I can't find a single person within the industry who thinks the Rockies have any chance to turn this around under a guy who has been a shitty football executive for a decade
November 6, 2025 at 10:24 PM
(Published 2019)
www.nytimes.com
November 6, 2025 at 10:22 PM
I think the Mets keeping Richardson was ideal but it is also quite strange to me that people have been crashing out so bad over significant structural changes happening to a team that underperformed by about a dozen games
November 5, 2025 at 8:20 PM
I think the Mets keeping Richardson was ideal but it is also quite strange to me that people have been crashing out so bad over significant structural changes happening to a team that underperformed by about a dozen games
everyone should probably be setting their expectations here at roughly “BdB without the weird Park Slope Y drama” and on both sides I think there’s an expectation that things are going to be much more immediately transformative
I am fascinated by a question @lastpositivist.bsky.social raised - will the mundane reality of Mamdani's governance cause anyone like this to reconsider their fantasies or the basis of their fantasies? How much do they even believe this crap themselves?
This guy
November 5, 2025 at 7:10 PM
everyone should probably be setting their expectations here at roughly “BdB without the weird Park Slope Y drama” and on both sides I think there’s an expectation that things are going to be much more immediately transformative
Reposted by Jarrett Seidler
The Dodgers might be good at this. www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
2026 Prospects: Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospects | Baseball Prospectus
Two back-to-back champions also boast one of the deeper farm systems in baseball.
www.baseballprospectus.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:50 PM
The Dodgers might be good at this. www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/ar...
chanting CHEUGY CHEUGY CHEUGY at my computer screen in honor of the Jets GM
November 4, 2025 at 7:10 PM
chanting CHEUGY CHEUGY CHEUGY at my computer screen in honor of the Jets GM
Siri is Yankee Stadium really generous to lefties who have high air pull
Surely he didn’t have a wRC+ home/road splits that were 50 points apart or anything crazy like that
November 4, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Siri is Yankee Stadium really generous to lefties who have high air pull