@radumircea.bsky.social
Investment Strategy @ PATRIZIA
Real estate / financial markets / macro / misc
Opinions are my own and not the views of my employer
Real estate / financial markets / macro / misc
Opinions are my own and not the views of my employer
Reposted
Great chart from the Wall Street Journal.
With a good quote, basically a caption, from none other than President Macron:
“Germany is moving and becoming aware of the imbalances that also affect it ... China is hitting the heart of the European industrial and innovation model.”
With a good quote, basically a caption, from none other than President Macron:
“Germany is moving and becoming aware of the imbalances that also affect it ... China is hitting the heart of the European industrial and innovation model.”
December 15, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Great chart from the Wall Street Journal.
With a good quote, basically a caption, from none other than President Macron:
“Germany is moving and becoming aware of the imbalances that also affect it ... China is hitting the heart of the European industrial and innovation model.”
With a good quote, basically a caption, from none other than President Macron:
“Germany is moving and becoming aware of the imbalances that also affect it ... China is hitting the heart of the European industrial and innovation model.”
Reposted
Adjusted for the difference in price level, GDP per capita has grown 70% in the US since 1990 vs. 63% in the EU27
This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the US vs. 1.5% in the EU.
The US has been doing better post-Covid, but over the medium run no big divergence
This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the US vs. 1.5% in the EU.
The US has been doing better post-Covid, but over the medium run no big divergence
December 12, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Adjusted for the difference in price level, GDP per capita has grown 70% in the US since 1990 vs. 63% in the EU27
This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the US vs. 1.5% in the EU.
The US has been doing better post-Covid, but over the medium run no big divergence
This corresponds to an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the US vs. 1.5% in the EU.
The US has been doing better post-Covid, but over the medium run no big divergence
Reposted
According to the European Commission, France and Austria will have among the most restrictive fiscal stances in 2026 (largest contraction in Romania). In countries like Italy and Poland, EU funds (RRF) will still offset national consolidation efforts, but only until 2027.
November 24, 2025 at 10:29 AM
According to the European Commission, France and Austria will have among the most restrictive fiscal stances in 2026 (largest contraction in Romania). In countries like Italy and Poland, EU funds (RRF) will still offset national consolidation efforts, but only until 2027.
Reposted
NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable.
It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
November 19, 2025 at 7:03 AM
NEW: Labour inherited public services in crisis. Performance had fallen, investment had been cut + spending plans were undeliverable.
It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
It's made some progress, providing stability and positive long-term plans. But it has been undermined by poor prep in opposition and lack of co-ordination in govt 🧵
Reposted
Shocking chart. Particularly alarming that the UK's figure has gone from 5% to ~10% since around 2014 whereas it's taken about 25 years for the same to happen in the US.
Attention is on NEETs today, but the problem is much worse.
NEETs include stay-at-home parents & jobseekers.
Strip those out to focus on people not working, not seeking work, not in education & not parenting: this group of economically & socially dislocated young adults has *doubled* in a decade.
NEETs include stay-at-home parents & jobseekers.
Strip those out to focus on people not working, not seeking work, not in education & not parenting: this group of economically & socially dislocated young adults has *doubled* in a decade.
November 20, 2025 at 11:00 AM
Shocking chart. Particularly alarming that the UK's figure has gone from 5% to ~10% since around 2014 whereas it's taken about 25 years for the same to happen in the US.
Reposted
This perfectly encapsulates why we need the BBC
November 13, 2025 at 2:12 PM
This perfectly encapsulates why we need the BBC
Reposted
Another big factor for the UK is its slide down the income rankings.
Would-be migrants want to join a dynamic economy with the promise of high and rising wages.
The UK used to fit that bill, but Britain’s top salaries are now well down the list.
Would-be migrants want to join a dynamic economy with the promise of high and rising wages.
The UK used to fit that bill, but Britain’s top salaries are now well down the list.
October 31, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Another big factor for the UK is its slide down the income rankings.
Would-be migrants want to join a dynamic economy with the promise of high and rising wages.
The UK used to fit that bill, but Britain’s top salaries are now well down the list.
Would-be migrants want to join a dynamic economy with the promise of high and rising wages.
The UK used to fit that bill, but Britain’s top salaries are now well down the list.
Reposted
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
November 7, 2025 at 8:37 AM
The AI build-out is truly staggering.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.
Reposted
How low will it go?
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social's detailed analysis projects net migration will collapse: from its peak of nearly a million to perhaps just over 100K in 2026.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social's detailed analysis projects net migration will collapse: from its peak of nearly a million to perhaps just over 100K in 2026.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
October 30, 2025 at 9:03 AM
How low will it go?
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social's detailed analysis projects net migration will collapse: from its peak of nearly a million to perhaps just over 100K in 2026.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social's detailed analysis projects net migration will collapse: from its peak of nearly a million to perhaps just over 100K in 2026.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Reposted
Increasingly, politics in West Europe is a mirror of East Europe, with a large radical right party against a rag-tag of centrist/liberal, centre-left, green and radical left parties and a rapidly declining centre right. The challenge is to coordinate the progressive opposition to the radical right.
Scholars & pundits have focussed a lot on the electoral demise of center left, but in doing so we paid to little attention to the electoral problems of the center right.
Case-in-points here not only British conservatives or center right in France, but increasingly also the center right in Spain.
Case-in-points here not only British conservatives or center right in France, but increasingly also the center right in Spain.
October 13, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Increasingly, politics in West Europe is a mirror of East Europe, with a large radical right party against a rag-tag of centrist/liberal, centre-left, green and radical left parties and a rapidly declining centre right. The challenge is to coordinate the progressive opposition to the radical right.
Reposted
China has replaced the EU as Russia’s main trading partner.
October 6, 2025 at 6:05 AM
China has replaced the EU as Russia’s main trading partner.
Reposted
Two very important graphs.
Net migration reached record levels in 2023 - and has since halved.
The vast majority of arrivals comprises students and workers.
Arrivals in small boats and asylum seekers - less than 5%.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Net migration reached record levels in 2023 - and has since halved.
The vast majority of arrivals comprises students and workers.
Arrivals in small boats and asylum seekers - less than 5%.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
September 14, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Two very important graphs.
Net migration reached record levels in 2023 - and has since halved.
The vast majority of arrivals comprises students and workers.
Arrivals in small boats and asylum seekers - less than 5%.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Net migration reached record levels in 2023 - and has since halved.
The vast majority of arrivals comprises students and workers.
Arrivals in small boats and asylum seekers - less than 5%.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Reposted
Extreme views are heavily over-represented on social media
Social platforms’ tendency to reward hostile content creates incentives that systematically reward simplistic messages and extreme positions and this fuels populism www.ft.com/content/9251... via @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
Social platforms’ tendency to reward hostile content creates incentives that systematically reward simplistic messages and extreme positions and this fuels populism www.ft.com/content/9251... via @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
September 8, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Extreme views are heavily over-represented on social media
Social platforms’ tendency to reward hostile content creates incentives that systematically reward simplistic messages and extreme positions and this fuels populism www.ft.com/content/9251... via @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
Social platforms’ tendency to reward hostile content creates incentives that systematically reward simplistic messages and extreme positions and this fuels populism www.ft.com/content/9251... via @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
Reposted
Germany's energy transition is focussing increasingly on grid costs. A new study suggests €1.2tr grid costs until 2050.
For such studies, we have Christoph to put them into context. Highly recommended thread (in German).
For such studies, we have Christoph to put them into context. Highly recommended thread (in German).
Heute ist die Plan B Studie zur Energiewende von Frontier für @dihk.bsky.social erschienen. Die @faznet.bsky.social hatte schon vor einigen Tagen über die dortigen Aussagen zu Netzkosten berichtet. www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
Hier noch meine Gedanken dazu
Hier noch meine Gedanken dazu
Kostet der Ausbau der Energienetze in Deutschland 1,2 Billionen Euro?
Der Wirtschaftsverband DIHK hat nachrechnen lassen, was die deutschen Energienetze in den kommenden Jahrzehnten kosten. Und kommt zu viel höheren Zahlen als andere Schätzungen.
www.faz.net
September 5, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Germany's energy transition is focussing increasingly on grid costs. A new study suggests €1.2tr grid costs until 2050.
For such studies, we have Christoph to put them into context. Highly recommended thread (in German).
For such studies, we have Christoph to put them into context. Highly recommended thread (in German).
Reposted
Historical. The leader of a nation victimized for wanting to join the West talking to the supposed leader of the West about how much of his country it will be ok to keep.
Presidents Zelensky and Trump in front of the map of #Ukraine.
August 18, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Historical. The leader of a nation victimized for wanting to join the West talking to the supposed leader of the West about how much of his country it will be ok to keep.
Reposted
Reposted
The Congressional Budget Office projects that Trump's tax cuts will add trillions of dollars to the US fiscal deficit.
July 22, 2025 at 6:17 AM
The Congressional Budget Office projects that Trump's tax cuts will add trillions of dollars to the US fiscal deficit.
Reposted
Europe has replaced the lost US aid to Ukraine in 2025.
July 23, 2025 at 9:11 AM
Europe has replaced the lost US aid to Ukraine in 2025.
Reposted
My favorite article of the week? This one, by @erik-jones.bsky.social.
Europeans are good at taking a raft of small decisions that lead to big shifts, he writes. Underestimate them at your peril, even in their current fight with Washington.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europeans are good at taking a raft of small decisions that lead to big shifts, he writes. Underestimate them at your peril, even in their current fight with Washington.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Betting on Europe
The rift between Brussels and Washington raises questions about which side will emerge stronger. The Europeans are laying the groundwork to enhance their power and have already proved their ability to...
carnegieendowment.org
July 17, 2025 at 12:25 PM
My favorite article of the week? This one, by @erik-jones.bsky.social.
Europeans are good at taking a raft of small decisions that lead to big shifts, he writes. Underestimate them at your peril, even in their current fight with Washington.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europeans are good at taking a raft of small decisions that lead to big shifts, he writes. Underestimate them at your peril, even in their current fight with Washington.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted
Research by IMF economists shows that the rise and fall of inflation in advanced economies since 2020 has mostly been driven by supply shocks (energy, food, supply chains). Macroeconomic conditions "played a secondary role".
June 23, 2025 at 6:28 AM
Research by IMF economists shows that the rise and fall of inflation in advanced economies since 2020 has mostly been driven by supply shocks (energy, food, supply chains). Macroeconomic conditions "played a secondary role".
Reposted
The Bernanke/Blanchard paper on what caused the US pandemic-era inflation is out in AEJ: Macro. They argue inflation was mostly driven by (temporary) supply shocks, not the tight labour market.
June 27, 2025 at 3:18 PM
The Bernanke/Blanchard paper on what caused the US pandemic-era inflation is out in AEJ: Macro. They argue inflation was mostly driven by (temporary) supply shocks, not the tight labour market.
Reposted
It’s been a long, strange journey from implementing Third Way social democracy in the U.K. to designing a Russian-style voucher privatisation scheme on the blockchain for Gaza real estate.
on.ft.com/3If9Cpx
on.ft.com/3If9Cpx
July 6, 2025 at 6:08 PM
It’s been a long, strange journey from implementing Third Way social democracy in the U.K. to designing a Russian-style voucher privatisation scheme on the blockchain for Gaza real estate.
on.ft.com/3If9Cpx
on.ft.com/3If9Cpx
Reposted
Calling a 3.5% of GDP defence spending target plus a 1.5% on ‘miscellaneous other spending most countries are doing anyway’ a 5% defence spending pledge is a bit silly.
The real number of 3.5% is still (1) a big step up from the last three decades for most members & (2) not very high historically.
The real number of 3.5% is still (1) a big step up from the last three decades for most members & (2) not very high historically.
June 25, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Calling a 3.5% of GDP defence spending target plus a 1.5% on ‘miscellaneous other spending most countries are doing anyway’ a 5% defence spending pledge is a bit silly.
The real number of 3.5% is still (1) a big step up from the last three decades for most members & (2) not very high historically.
The real number of 3.5% is still (1) a big step up from the last three decades for most members & (2) not very high historically.