Jane Green
@profjanegreen.bsky.social
Nuffield College, Oxford
Co-Director, British Election Study
Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre
President, British Polling Council
Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …
Co-Director, British Election Study
Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre
President, British Polling Council
Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …
Pinned
Jane Green
@profjanegreen.bsky.social
· Oct 2
"...because growth is the pound in your pocket, it is more money for trips, meals out, the little things that bring joy to our lives...the peace of mind that comes from economic security." 💪
@jrf-uk.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @zackgp94.bsky.social
@jrf-uk.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social @zackgp94.bsky.social
….”the price of putting a roof over your head and food on the table has tremendous electoral potency when people are struggling to do both. Zohran Mamdani may be a shiny new thing, but the moral of these elections is as old as the Appalachian mountains.”
November 9, 2025 at 1:15 PM
….”the price of putting a roof over your head and food on the table has tremendous electoral potency when people are struggling to do both. Zohran Mamdani may be a shiny new thing, but the moral of these elections is as old as the Appalachian mountains.”
If my network is anything to go by, the first EPSS conference is going to be a massive, enthusiastic success!
‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY!
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
November 7, 2025 at 1:22 PM
If my network is anything to go by, the first EPSS conference is going to be a massive, enthusiastic success!
Really pleased to see this. So many people, being told that Reform are appealing to young alienated men, think that's a successful appeal. Not so far!
"The most common response among men aged 18-25, as with their female peers, is to state that they would never consider voting for Reform."
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte & Emilia Belknap argue that most British young men reject the right
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british-young-men-reject-the-far-right/
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte & Emilia Belknap argue that most British young men reject the right
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british-young-men-reject-the-far-right/
Most British young men reject the far right - UK in a changing Europe
Emilia Belknap and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte explain their analysis on the demographics of Reform UK voters in the UK. They argue that while the dominant narrative is that young men are the most likely to turn to the party, the evidence does not support this.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 1, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Really pleased to see this. So many people, being told that Reform are appealing to young alienated men, think that's a successful appeal. Not so far!
🥺
🚨 Earth's vital signs are flashing red.
🌡️ 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history.
Read the latest Climate report from @williamripple.bsky.social and Christopher Wolf's team, published in BioScience.
oxford.ly/47i6K5j
🌡️ 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history.
Read the latest Climate report from @williamripple.bsky.social and Christopher Wolf's team, published in BioScience.
oxford.ly/47i6K5j
November 1, 2025 at 8:21 AM
🥺
Reposted by Jane Green
Reposted by Jane Green
Government has published one of those quiet but important documents that might get overlooked as it is not 'newsy'. The headline finding is that £1 of public R&D investment generates £8 in net economic benefits for the UK over the long term
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
The value of public R&D
www.gov.uk
October 30, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Government has published one of those quiet but important documents that might get overlooked as it is not 'newsy'. The headline finding is that £1 of public R&D investment generates £8 in net economic benefits for the UK over the long term
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
One thing I find really curious is the combination of ‘we can’t risk the triple lock because…voters’ while literally haemorrhaging mid-life voters and not having much more than….’wait for some growth’.
It's increasingly obvious that Labour's strategy - call it Starmerism, Blue Labour, whatever - has got it badly wrong. It has alienated the party's core vote while failing to win over those leaning to Reform. There was no shortage of people warning them they were getting it wrong either.
Three years ago, Labour was polling in the 50s.
October 28, 2025 at 12:33 PM
One thing I find really curious is the combination of ‘we can’t risk the triple lock because…voters’ while literally haemorrhaging mid-life voters and not having much more than….’wait for some growth’.
And on a more superficial level, but still loved it, just watched the scene with Kate trying to get into the skin tight sequin dress. Somehow we put up with putting ourselves through these kind of things and then still go and kick a***.
There is no way these relationships would have been written 20 years ago. Not between Kate and Eidra, Eidra and Austin, Kate and Austin, Kate and Hal. None of these things would be a thing. And you’re telling me I’m in a worse world
October 24, 2025 at 8:51 PM
And on a more superficial level, but still loved it, just watched the scene with Kate trying to get into the skin tight sequin dress. Somehow we put up with putting ourselves through these kind of things and then still go and kick a***.
Reposted by Jane Green
And a context where the "tactical option" on the left was much clearer. Today, if other parties on the left appear as a viable option to defeat *both* Reform and the Labour incumbent in the constituency, this could offer voters a double strategic reason to rally behind them. Tactical voting squared
For the 2024 election, @martamiori.bsky.social and I showed that the left bloc was much more coordinated. This led to extremely efficient votes-seats ratios for Labour and the Liberal Democrats (something that has had far too little attention). But that was in the context of an anti-Tory mood....
Caerphilly shows Nigel Farage’s Achilles heel – tactical voting could lock Reform out of power. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
October 24, 2025 at 11:45 AM
And a context where the "tactical option" on the left was much clearer. Today, if other parties on the left appear as a viable option to defeat *both* Reform and the Labour incumbent in the constituency, this could offer voters a double strategic reason to rally behind them. Tactical voting squared
For the 2024 election, @martamiori.bsky.social and I showed that the left bloc was much more coordinated. This led to extremely efficient votes-seats ratios for Labour and the Liberal Democrats (something that has had far too little attention). But that was in the context of an anti-Tory mood....
Caerphilly shows Nigel Farage’s Achilles heel – tactical voting could lock Reform out of power. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
Caerphilly shows Nigel Farage’s Achilles heel
Tactical voting could lock Reform out of power
www.newstatesman.com
October 24, 2025 at 11:11 AM
For the 2024 election, @martamiori.bsky.social and I showed that the left bloc was much more coordinated. This led to extremely efficient votes-seats ratios for Labour and the Liberal Democrats (something that has had far too little attention). But that was in the context of an anti-Tory mood....
Reposted by Jane Green
It is tempting to over-analyse the result in Caerphilly, but one thing it does demonstrate is the potential power of tactical voting.
That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.
That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.
October 24, 2025 at 9:34 AM
It is tempting to over-analyse the result in Caerphilly, but one thing it does demonstrate is the potential power of tactical voting.
That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.
That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.
Reposted by Jane Green
Somewhat hastily written first thoughts on Caerphilly result www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Plaid Cymru’s victory in Caerphilly points to a new kind of electorate
The Welsh town’s byelection was a two-party race – but this time neither Labour nor the Conservatives were in it
www.theguardian.com
October 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Somewhat hastily written first thoughts on Caerphilly result www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
I’d caution about reading too much into the strength of the left bloc in Wales over Reform and extrapolating that.
Reform’s potential elsewhere is larger than it is in Wales….
Reform’s potential elsewhere is larger than it is in Wales….
October 24, 2025 at 9:21 AM
I’d caution about reading too much into the strength of the left bloc in Wales over Reform and extrapolating that.
Reform’s potential elsewhere is larger than it is in Wales….
Reform’s potential elsewhere is larger than it is in Wales….
Reposted by Jane Green
By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
Who in my bloc can beat the threat on the other side?
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
October 24, 2025 at 8:14 AM
By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.
Reposted by Jane Green
Broadcasters - especially the BBC - have been working hard to ensure they give a voice to the 25-35% of people willing to vote Reform (and harder groups within that, like anti-asylum protest and Tommy protest)
Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
October 24, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Broadcasters - especially the BBC - have been working hard to ensure they give a voice to the 25-35% of people willing to vote Reform (and harder groups within that, like anti-asylum protest and Tommy protest)
Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
People have assumed that Reform are mobilising 'non-voters' and thinking, perhaps, of 2016 Brexit voters who don't vote in general elections. Surely some, but I'd bet that they're mainly converting Conservatives who voted in 2017 and 2019 but who sat out the election in 2024 (as so many people did).
October 24, 2025 at 7:44 AM
People have assumed that Reform are mobilising 'non-voters' and thinking, perhaps, of 2016 Brexit voters who don't vote in general elections. Surely some, but I'd bet that they're mainly converting Conservatives who voted in 2017 and 2019 but who sat out the election in 2024 (as so many people did).
Reposted by Jane Green
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu
October 23, 2025 at 2:03 PM
We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
Who in my bloc can beat the threat on the other side?
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
October 24, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Who in my bloc can beat the threat on the other side?
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
Caerphilly election helps us understand bloc voting and viability.
Voters asking which party in their bloc is best placed to defeat a more disliked party. Viability absolutely critical, given polarisation and fragmentation.
Reposted by Jane Green
Important to have priorities...
Leavitt: "At this moment in time, of course, the ballroom is really the president's main priority."
October 23, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Important to have priorities...
Reposted by Jane Green
Should be a v simple choice for Badenoch’s LOTO - either withdraw this mad “Idi Amin x 20” mass deportation bill or they should be treated by everyone in politics as what they are - more extreme on immigration than the BNP or any democratic govt anywhere
LOTO should obviously now withdraw this mad bill if they say they would design the conditions "carefully" since they clearly have either not read or not understood what the Shadow Home Secretary has actually drafted and put to first reading
bsky.app/profile/pete...
bsky.app/profile/pete...
• They can't say if it would apply to all other benefits eg statutory maternity pay.
• Won't say if it would apply to people with ILR who have UK national kids and/or spouse.
• Very few answers at all: "There are always going to be fringe cases & the policy will need to be designed very carefully."
• Won't say if it would apply to people with ILR who have UK national kids and/or spouse.
• Very few answers at all: "There are always going to be fringe cases & the policy will need to be designed very carefully."
October 23, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Should be a v simple choice for Badenoch’s LOTO - either withdraw this mad “Idi Amin x 20” mass deportation bill or they should be treated by everyone in politics as what they are - more extreme on immigration than the BNP or any democratic govt anywhere
Reposted by Jane Green
🚨 New LSE job in political science 🚨
We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy
Please share!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy
Please share!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy
Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy,
,
<p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></...
jobs.lse.ac.uk
October 22, 2025 at 4:08 PM
🚨 New LSE job in political science 🚨
We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy
Please share!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
We're looking for a *Full or Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Policy* to join the LSE School of Public Policy
Please share!
jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
Reposted by Jane Green
A policy this expansive would certainly mean mass stripping of permanent residence status from people with ILR (including pensioners and parents of British children) on a scale far beyond anything any democracy has ever done before. There is no public support for such an extreme policy.
Via @sundersays.bsky.social the Conservatives' draft legislation - absolutely clear that it applies to (and is intended to apply to) legal permanent residents claiming state pension (on the basis of their contributions) or child benefit for British kids.
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbi...
October 22, 2025 at 7:22 AM
A policy this expansive would certainly mean mass stripping of permanent residence status from people with ILR (including pensioners and parents of British children) on a scale far beyond anything any democracy has ever done before. There is no public support for such an extreme policy.
This is really interesting by Matthew Barnfield and colleagues. Our research shows Labour is losing more support among its 2024 voters who feel financially insecure, which - together - suggests voters leaving Labour cant *afford* to wait for ‘jam tomorrow’.
Voters who think the least about the 'long term' are the most likely to have turned on the government.
Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Important research by my fantastic colleagues @mbarnfield.bsky.social , @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social cited in Inside Politics.
www.ft.com/content/e984...
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons
Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains
www.ft.com
October 20, 2025 at 9:20 AM
This is really interesting by Matthew Barnfield and colleagues. Our research shows Labour is losing more support among its 2024 voters who feel financially insecure, which - together - suggests voters leaving Labour cant *afford* to wait for ‘jam tomorrow’.
Reposted by Jane Green
Counter-intuitive (but not really) fact of the day
Q: In which type of constituency are 2024 Labour voters most likely to currently be defecting to Reform UK?
A: Seats held by the Lib Dems
Q: In which type of constituency are 2024 Labour voters most likely to currently be defecting to Reform UK?
A: Seats held by the Lib Dems
October 19, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Counter-intuitive (but not really) fact of the day
Q: In which type of constituency are 2024 Labour voters most likely to currently be defecting to Reform UK?
A: Seats held by the Lib Dems
Q: In which type of constituency are 2024 Labour voters most likely to currently be defecting to Reform UK?
A: Seats held by the Lib Dems
Reposted by Jane Green
Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.
October 19, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.