Professor Groeteschele
@profgroeteschele.bsky.social
Political Agnostic. Retired Cold-Warrior. Married to a better woman than I deserve, father and soon to be grandfather.
This account is going to be 50% Deterrence advocacy, 40% "Old man yells at kids about foreign policy" And 10% Taylor Swift.
This account is going to be 50% Deterrence advocacy, 40% "Old man yells at kids about foreign policy" And 10% Taylor Swift.
Multiple things can be wrong all at the same time.
Trump pardoned Jared Kushner's dad while Jared worked in the White House, then yesterday appointed Jared's dad as an ambassador, but Polis didn't have the same energy for that. Pathetic stuff that I for one won't soon forget.
December 2, 2024 at 2:39 AM
Multiple things can be wrong all at the same time.
Shielding your adult children from the consequences of their bad decisions is bad, actually.
They don't learn to make better decisions and you can't save them forever.
Alcoholics know this as an example of "enablement."
Your desire to do this is natural. However, it's inherently selfish.
They don't learn to make better decisions and you can't save them forever.
Alcoholics know this as an example of "enablement."
Your desire to do this is natural. However, it's inherently selfish.
December 2, 2024 at 2:37 AM
Shielding your adult children from the consequences of their bad decisions is bad, actually.
They don't learn to make better decisions and you can't save them forever.
Alcoholics know this as an example of "enablement."
Your desire to do this is natural. However, it's inherently selfish.
They don't learn to make better decisions and you can't save them forever.
Alcoholics know this as an example of "enablement."
Your desire to do this is natural. However, it's inherently selfish.
Exactly.
Genuinely hilarious. You will note that SS-X-31 launchers being counted under New START would not change that the missile violates the INF with any meaningful payload.
The offer was a political ploy. The U.S. agreeing would have legitimized a violation of the INF.
The offer was a political ploy. The U.S. agreeing would have legitimized a violation of the INF.
November 25, 2024 at 9:32 PM
Exactly.
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
The man truly is the textbook example of the Dunning–Kruger effect
November 24, 2024 at 9:23 PM
The man truly is the textbook example of the Dunning–Kruger effect
I check in on X and there's a guy explaining that obese people should just lose weight if they want to be healthy and a billionaire explaining that stealth fighters can be seen with NVGs so they don't work.
(The Billionaire is soon to be in charge of government efficiency)
(The Billionaire is soon to be in charge of government efficiency)
November 24, 2024 at 10:23 PM
I check in on X and there's a guy explaining that obese people should just lose weight if they want to be healthy and a billionaire explaining that stealth fighters can be seen with NVGs so they don't work.
(The Billionaire is soon to be in charge of government efficiency)
(The Billionaire is soon to be in charge of government efficiency)
Yes, very Christian. Well done.
“Children relied on neighbors and strangers to pick them up outside their homes after school,” WJTV reported following the 2019 raids. “They drove the children to a community center where ppl tried to keep them calm. But many kids could not stop crying for mom and dad.” www.wjtv.com/news/childre...
November 24, 2024 at 9:53 PM
Yes, very Christian. Well done.
This housing first policy has shown real results elsewhere.
This does drive towards the GOP mindset that being homeless is a moral failing. That being an addict is a moral failing.
Unless, of course, you happen to be a white person addicted to pain meds. Then it's Big Pharmas fault.
This does drive towards the GOP mindset that being homeless is a moral failing. That being an addict is a moral failing.
Unless, of course, you happen to be a white person addicted to pain meds. Then it's Big Pharmas fault.
FYI: Project 2025 calls for ending a homelessness policy known as Housing First, which places people in subsidized housing and then helps them address drug and mental health addictions. 1/2
www.npr.org/2024/11/22/n...
www.npr.org/2024/11/22/n...
www.npr.org
November 24, 2024 at 2:40 PM
This housing first policy has shown real results elsewhere.
This does drive towards the GOP mindset that being homeless is a moral failing. That being an addict is a moral failing.
Unless, of course, you happen to be a white person addicted to pain meds. Then it's Big Pharmas fault.
This does drive towards the GOP mindset that being homeless is a moral failing. That being an addict is a moral failing.
Unless, of course, you happen to be a white person addicted to pain meds. Then it's Big Pharmas fault.
Stalker 2. I bought it because I wanted to support the makers, but I have tried playing it.
I don't think I would be a very good Stalker. I mostly just run away from everything.
I don't think I would be a very good Stalker. I mostly just run away from everything.
What games are people playing/making lately?
November 24, 2024 at 2:23 PM
Stalker 2. I bought it because I wanted to support the makers, but I have tried playing it.
I don't think I would be a very good Stalker. I mostly just run away from everything.
I don't think I would be a very good Stalker. I mostly just run away from everything.
Optimist: The cup is half full.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Deterrence advocate: If you don't fill your cup, I won't fill mine, and we can both have some water in peace.
But any wrong move and I'm dumping the table over.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Deterrence advocate: If you don't fill your cup, I won't fill mine, and we can both have some water in peace.
But any wrong move and I'm dumping the table over.
Optimist: The cup is half full.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Arms Controller: if we pour our cup out, everyone else at the table will as well.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Arms Controller: if we pour our cup out, everyone else at the table will as well.
Optimist: The cup is half full.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
African art historian: hey where did you get this cup from?
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
African art historian: hey where did you get this cup from?
November 24, 2024 at 2:21 PM
Optimist: The cup is half full.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Deterrence advocate: If you don't fill your cup, I won't fill mine, and we can both have some water in peace.
But any wrong move and I'm dumping the table over.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Deterrence advocate: If you don't fill your cup, I won't fill mine, and we can both have some water in peace.
But any wrong move and I'm dumping the table over.
Optimist: The cup is half full.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Arms Controller: if we pour our cup out, everyone else at the table will as well.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Arms Controller: if we pour our cup out, everyone else at the table will as well.
Optimist: The cup is half full.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
African art historian: hey where did you get this cup from?
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
African art historian: hey where did you get this cup from?
Optimist: The cup is half full.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Historian: The cup, 1789-1914
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Historian: The cup, 1789-1914
November 24, 2024 at 2:18 PM
Optimist: The cup is half full.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Arms Controller: if we pour our cup out, everyone else at the table will as well.
Pessimist: The cup is half empty.
Arms Controller: if we pour our cup out, everyone else at the table will as well.
I may be wrong, but im not sure this is Maga brainworms.
Turn the dial back pre-Covid and RFK Jrs positions on health and medicine would be extremely popular in places like Portland Oregon. I think there is some of that still working.
Turn the dial back pre-Covid and RFK Jrs positions on health and medicine would be extremely popular in places like Portland Oregon. I think there is some of that still working.
First, the owner of the LA Times spiked the editorial board’s endorsement of Harris.
Now he has gone full MAGA
Now he has gone full MAGA
November 24, 2024 at 2:08 PM
I may be wrong, but im not sure this is Maga brainworms.
Turn the dial back pre-Covid and RFK Jrs positions on health and medicine would be extremely popular in places like Portland Oregon. I think there is some of that still working.
Turn the dial back pre-Covid and RFK Jrs positions on health and medicine would be extremely popular in places like Portland Oregon. I think there is some of that still working.
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
This actual non-satirical chart from Seb Gorka's PhD dissertation also seems relevant again.
November 23, 2024 at 3:48 PM
This actual non-satirical chart from Seb Gorka's PhD dissertation also seems relevant again.
I agree with this as well. I was/am a fan of INF, but it does no good if the US is the only one constrained by it.
Arms control in this current environment is going to be a challenge.
Arms control in this current environment is going to be a challenge.
I also agree with this. I don’t think there are any good answers in the current situation. INF was good, Russia violating INF is bad, the inevitable US responses will also be bad etc. Whilst everybody is pursuing a competitive edge, the environment for future arms control gets more complicated.
November 23, 2024 at 3:47 PM
I agree with this as well. I was/am a fan of INF, but it does no good if the US is the only one constrained by it.
Arms control in this current environment is going to be a challenge.
Arms control in this current environment is going to be a challenge.
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
engelsbergideas.com/notebook/nav...
#nukesky
Reja Younis is a voice in the new generation of nuclear scholars I really respect and value. As we navigate a period of increasing multipolarity, proliferation risks, and diminished diplomacy, nuance and moderation are key. Highly worth reading.
#nukesky
Reja Younis is a voice in the new generation of nuclear scholars I really respect and value. As we navigate a period of increasing multipolarity, proliferation risks, and diminished diplomacy, nuance and moderation are key. Highly worth reading.
Navigating the new nuclear age
Nuclear deterrence is neither a magic bullet nor an obsolete relic. It is a complex and dynamic tool that demands continuous adaptation, clear-eyed assessment, and a nuanced understanding of its inher...
engelsbergideas.com
November 23, 2024 at 12:52 AM
engelsbergideas.com/notebook/nav...
#nukesky
Reja Younis is a voice in the new generation of nuclear scholars I really respect and value. As we navigate a period of increasing multipolarity, proliferation risks, and diminished diplomacy, nuance and moderation are key. Highly worth reading.
#nukesky
Reja Younis is a voice in the new generation of nuclear scholars I really respect and value. As we navigate a period of increasing multipolarity, proliferation risks, and diminished diplomacy, nuance and moderation are key. Highly worth reading.
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
Yeah. The development of SSC-8 began in the mid-2000s, first tested in 2008, SS-X-31 development began the same year, first tested in 2011 (unsuccessfully). In addition, the SS-26 with both versions of the 9N70 nuclear warhead is known to exceed a range of 500km.
1/3
1/3
That they violated the INF as brazenly as they did with SSC-8, SS-26 (Mod ?), and SS-X-31 should also be demonstrative of Russia’s willingness to engage with us in good faith on either confidence & security building or arms control.
Today is neither 2011 nor 1991.
Today is neither 2011 nor 1991.
As #nukesky parses the reality, intent, and meaning of the Russian IRBM-MIRV demonstrative strike, I think it's instructive to recall how the Russians felt about our prior efforts on confidence & security building measures in Europe.
"You Americans already have too much of both."
"You Americans already have too much of both."
November 22, 2024 at 9:02 AM
Yeah. The development of SSC-8 began in the mid-2000s, first tested in 2008, SS-X-31 development began the same year, first tested in 2011 (unsuccessfully). In addition, the SS-26 with both versions of the 9N70 nuclear warhead is known to exceed a range of 500km.
1/3
1/3
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
The chronology of Russian INF-violating weapons development is always good to keep in your back pocket when people start trying to launder the situation into something that looks less like either a severe failure of arms control, or a black and white indictment of Russian state behavior.
Yeah. The development of SSC-8 began in the mid-2000s, first tested in 2008, SS-X-31 development began the same year, first tested in 2011 (unsuccessfully). In addition, the SS-26 with both versions of the 9N70 nuclear warhead is known to exceed a range of 500km.
1/3
1/3
That they violated the INF as brazenly as they did with SSC-8, SS-26 (Mod ?), and SS-X-31 should also be demonstrative of Russia’s willingness to engage with us in good faith on either confidence & security building or arms control.
Today is neither 2011 nor 1991.
Today is neither 2011 nor 1991.
November 23, 2024 at 3:28 PM
The chronology of Russian INF-violating weapons development is always good to keep in your back pocket when people start trying to launder the situation into something that looks less like either a severe failure of arms control, or a black and white indictment of Russian state behavior.
Except when one side is honoring the frameworks and the other side isn't you are worse off than if there were no frameworks.
If one side gains an advantage, that can cause real problems in a crisis because the side with the advantage can be much more aggressive.
If one side gains an advantage, that can cause real problems in a crisis because the side with the advantage can be much more aggressive.
Sure, I don’t necessarily disagree with that. That being said, a world where there are constraints and frameworks (even with flaws) seems better than one where there are none. The US will likely end up responding and Russia from then on etc, working to INF 2.0 with such low trust on both sides.
November 23, 2024 at 3:18 PM
Except when one side is honoring the frameworks and the other side isn't you are worse off than if there were no frameworks.
If one side gains an advantage, that can cause real problems in a crisis because the side with the advantage can be much more aggressive.
If one side gains an advantage, that can cause real problems in a crisis because the side with the advantage can be much more aggressive.
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
It didn’t prevent one violation so unclear to me how it would prevent a second. (Or third or fourth)
November 23, 2024 at 10:54 AM
It didn’t prevent one violation so unclear to me how it would prevent a second. (Or third or fourth)
We have won some sort of lottery in hell.
November 23, 2024 at 3:12 PM
We have won some sort of lottery in hell.
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
As #nukesky parses the reality, intent, and meaning of the Russian IRBM-MIRV demonstrative strike, I think it's instructive to recall how the Russians felt about our prior efforts on confidence & security building measures in Europe.
"You Americans already have too much of both."
"You Americans already have too much of both."
November 22, 2024 at 12:30 AM
As #nukesky parses the reality, intent, and meaning of the Russian IRBM-MIRV demonstrative strike, I think it's instructive to recall how the Russians felt about our prior efforts on confidence & security building measures in Europe.
"You Americans already have too much of both."
"You Americans already have too much of both."
People in Sci-Fi horror: "Cool! Let's check it out."
November 20, 2024 at 4:17 PM
People in Sci-Fi horror: "Cool! Let's check it out."
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
NEW: In previously unreported remarks, Trump’s HHS nominee said that he was open to the possibility that Covid-19 pandemic was, in fact, a “plandemic”—an infectious disease outbreak orchestrated by government officials to effectively subdue the populace
www.thebulwark.com/p/rfk-govern...
www.thebulwark.com/p/rfk-govern...
RFK Jr. Said the Government May Have Planned COVID
In previously unreported remarks, Trump’s HHS nominee said he found the "plandemic" conspiracy persuasive.
www.thebulwark.com
November 19, 2024 at 6:54 PM
NEW: In previously unreported remarks, Trump’s HHS nominee said that he was open to the possibility that Covid-19 pandemic was, in fact, a “plandemic”—an infectious disease outbreak orchestrated by government officials to effectively subdue the populace
www.thebulwark.com/p/rfk-govern...
www.thebulwark.com/p/rfk-govern...
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
I'm not saying we should ignore nuclear threats - but we should understand them in context
November 19, 2024 at 6:11 PM
I'm not saying we should ignore nuclear threats - but we should understand them in context
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
OTD in 1938 the Great Purge ended by decree. I'm different to Stalin. He had purge first, then military disaster. I had disaster first & now I need purge.
I remain a master strategist.
I remain a master strategist.
November 17, 2024 at 12:03 PM
OTD in 1938 the Great Purge ended by decree. I'm different to Stalin. He had purge first, then military disaster. I had disaster first & now I need purge.
I remain a master strategist.
I remain a master strategist.
Reposted by Professor Groeteschele
My favorite Colby bit was when he wrote how invading Mexico was a waste of time and resources, than a bunch of GOP officials came out in favor like a day later, than he pivoted to, “Hm, actually it’s a great strategic pivot.” Just sycophants who crave power, that’s all they are
Mike Lee threatening to end US troop deployments to Japan over that while Elbridge Colby-posting about how Ukraine was hurting out Taiwan readiness is when I realized these people don’t believe in anything
November 14, 2024 at 2:01 AM
My favorite Colby bit was when he wrote how invading Mexico was a waste of time and resources, than a bunch of GOP officials came out in favor like a day later, than he pivoted to, “Hm, actually it’s a great strategic pivot.” Just sycophants who crave power, that’s all they are