Jamie
@russiarecap.bsky.social
MA student | interested in and researching all things armed conflict (particularly Russian defence policy)| Posts focused on analysis & observations | Likes&Shares≠not endorsements
Reposted by Jamie
Worth looking at #Putin remarks about #Russia and #Israel-#Iran at #SPIEF2025 in full - they reveal a lot about his current thinking:
-He says that "those who promote ... narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs"
🧵
-He says that "those who promote ... narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs"
🧵
June 21, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Worth looking at #Putin remarks about #Russia and #Israel-#Iran at #SPIEF2025 in full - they reveal a lot about his current thinking:
-He says that "those who promote ... narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs"
🧵
-He says that "those who promote ... narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs"
🧵
Reposted by Jamie
Putin: “I’ve already said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In that sense, all of Ukraine is ours. … We have this old rule, that wherever a Russian steps foot — that’s our territory.”
Whatever this is, it’s not a president preparing his people for compromise.
Whatever this is, it’s not a president preparing his people for compromise.
June 21, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Putin: “I’ve already said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In that sense, all of Ukraine is ours. … We have this old rule, that wherever a Russian steps foot — that’s our territory.”
Whatever this is, it’s not a president preparing his people for compromise.
Whatever this is, it’s not a president preparing his people for compromise.
Reposted by Jamie
There’s a bad conspiracy theory going around that Bob Woodward claims in his book ‘War’ that the AFU allowed 30,000 Russian troops to quietly withdraw from Kherson due to US pressure on Kiyv. It’s false on all counts. 1/
January 11, 2025 at 10:36 PM
There’s a bad conspiracy theory going around that Bob Woodward claims in his book ‘War’ that the AFU allowed 30,000 Russian troops to quietly withdraw from Kherson due to US pressure on Kiyv. It’s false on all counts. 1/
Reposted by Jamie
Another quarter another Veteran Missileer magazine issue.
It has many interesting bits, but mostly nichie ones, ie clarifying that the technical requirements for Rif radio link came from suggestions for improving Efir-M radio link.
1/3
It has many interesting bits, but mostly nichie ones, ie clarifying that the technical requirements for Rif radio link came from suggestions for improving Efir-M radio link.
1/3
January 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Another quarter another Veteran Missileer magazine issue.
It has many interesting bits, but mostly nichie ones, ie clarifying that the technical requirements for Rif radio link came from suggestions for improving Efir-M radio link.
1/3
It has many interesting bits, but mostly nichie ones, ie clarifying that the technical requirements for Rif radio link came from suggestions for improving Efir-M radio link.
1/3
Reposted by Jamie
Efir-M is a dual band (MW/LW) radio link, acting as a robust (UWB) back up to the local cable network from mid 70s, allowing transmission of launch commands from low level CPs (Division, Regiment) to the launchers (ie silos)
2/3
2/3
January 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Efir-M is a dual band (MW/LW) radio link, acting as a robust (UWB) back up to the local cable network from mid 70s, allowing transmission of launch commands from low level CPs (Division, Regiment) to the launchers (ie silos)
2/3
2/3
Reposted by Jamie
The Russia-Africa Monitor no. 11 is out! A slow week with fewer links, but much to comment about Moscow's latest moves in Libya… and Algeria. Check it out! open.substack.com/pub/klyszcz/...
Russia-Africa Monitor #11 — 30 December-5 January 2025
Algeria, Libya… more Russian moves in North Africa
open.substack.com
January 5, 2025 at 12:27 PM
The Russia-Africa Monitor no. 11 is out! A slow week with fewer links, but much to comment about Moscow's latest moves in Libya… and Algeria. Check it out! open.substack.com/pub/klyszcz/...
Reposted by Jamie
Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
January 5, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
Reposted by Jamie
Ukraine’s decision to make new brigades, instead of replacing losses at the front line among the best and most experienced units, had proven to be one of the more puzzling force management choices given the battlefield situation and problems with mobilization. 16/
January 4, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Ukraine’s decision to make new brigades, instead of replacing losses at the front line among the best and most experienced units, had proven to be one of the more puzzling force management choices given the battlefield situation and problems with mobilization. 16/
Reposted by Jamie
A long thread on the war and the current situation. Although the worst-case scenarios didn’t materialize in 2024, it was the most difficult period since spring 2022. There were positive developments, and bright spots, but the current trajectory is negative. 1/
January 4, 2025 at 3:54 PM
A long thread on the war and the current situation. Although the worst-case scenarios didn’t materialize in 2024, it was the most difficult period since spring 2022. There were positive developments, and bright spots, but the current trajectory is negative. 1/
Reposted by Jamie
Something fresh to read on disruptive tech and strategic stability by your truly in the latest Russia in Global Affairs issue: Disruptive Technologies as a Source of Strategic Destabilization.
January 1, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Something fresh to read on disruptive tech and strategic stability by your truly in the latest Russia in Global Affairs issue: Disruptive Technologies as a Source of Strategic Destabilization.
Happy new year everyone 🎉
January 1, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Happy new year everyone 🎉
Reposted by Jamie
Russian annual launch rate fell to its lowest level in the 21st century with 17 missions in 2024. But Roskosmos promises to begin deployment of low-orbital "mega-constellations" in near future, which, if ever materializes, should boost the launch rate.
Details:
www.russianspaceweb.com/2024.html
Details:
www.russianspaceweb.com/2024.html
December 31, 2024 at 3:39 PM
Russian annual launch rate fell to its lowest level in the 21st century with 17 missions in 2024. But Roskosmos promises to begin deployment of low-orbital "mega-constellations" in near future, which, if ever materializes, should boost the launch rate.
Details:
www.russianspaceweb.com/2024.html
Details:
www.russianspaceweb.com/2024.html
On this day in 1999, Boris Yeltsin resigned from the Presidency of Russia.
December 31, 2024 at 11:25 AM
On this day in 1999, Boris Yeltsin resigned from the Presidency of Russia.
Reposted by Jamie
My newest for @RiddleRussia
Frosty relations: #Russia and the #EU in the #Arctic
it explores the history and outlook of EU-Russia Arctic relations in 2025, spotting various points of contention and a few glimmers of possible cooperation
ridl.io/frosty-relat...
Frosty relations: #Russia and the #EU in the #Arctic
it explores the history and outlook of EU-Russia Arctic relations in 2025, spotting various points of contention and a few glimmers of possible cooperation
ridl.io/frosty-relat...
Frosty relations: Russia and the EU in the Arctic – Riddle Russia
Nurlan Aliyev explores the history and outlook of EU-Russia Arctic relations in 2025, spotting various points of contention and a few glimmers of cooperation
ridl.io
December 22, 2024 at 4:35 PM
My newest for @RiddleRussia
Frosty relations: #Russia and the #EU in the #Arctic
it explores the history and outlook of EU-Russia Arctic relations in 2025, spotting various points of contention and a few glimmers of possible cooperation
ridl.io/frosty-relat...
Frosty relations: #Russia and the #EU in the #Arctic
it explores the history and outlook of EU-Russia Arctic relations in 2025, spotting various points of contention and a few glimmers of possible cooperation
ridl.io/frosty-relat...
Reposted by Jamie
Important development for 🇰🇷🇰🇵 watchers:
Colby argues US should shift focus from NK to China.
So, he urges South Korea to take more responsibility for its defense, even exploring nuclear options.
And he views DPRK denuclearization as unlikely, prefers arms control to denuke.
Colby argues US should shift focus from NK to China.
So, he urges South Korea to take more responsibility for its defense, even exploring nuclear options.
And he views DPRK denuclearization as unlikely, prefers arms control to denuke.
December 22, 2024 at 10:39 PM
Important development for 🇰🇷🇰🇵 watchers:
Colby argues US should shift focus from NK to China.
So, he urges South Korea to take more responsibility for its defense, even exploring nuclear options.
And he views DPRK denuclearization as unlikely, prefers arms control to denuke.
Colby argues US should shift focus from NK to China.
So, he urges South Korea to take more responsibility for its defense, even exploring nuclear options.
And he views DPRK denuclearization as unlikely, prefers arms control to denuke.
After a little bit of a break, got round to writing a short piece on the fall of Bashar al-Assad and some of the implications for Russia: russiarecap.substack.com/p/rr-2-you-c...
RR #2: You Can't Be Syriaous
Cringey titles aside, the fall of Bashar al-Assad has changed the regional dynamic in the Middle East and posed strategic challenges for a Russia focused on the war in Ukraine.
russiarecap.substack.com
December 22, 2024 at 4:34 PM
After a little bit of a break, got round to writing a short piece on the fall of Bashar al-Assad and some of the implications for Russia: russiarecap.substack.com/p/rr-2-you-c...
Reposted by Jamie
New Russia-Africa Monitor is out!
More details are emerging about Russia's post-Assad troubles in Africa, with new developments from Mali to Libya to Sudan. Plus, slightly fewer links (29) than usual because I caught a cold. :(
Subscribe! open.substack.com/pub/klyszcz/...
More details are emerging about Russia's post-Assad troubles in Africa, with new developments from Mali to Libya to Sudan. Plus, slightly fewer links (29) than usual because I caught a cold. :(
Subscribe! open.substack.com/pub/klyszcz/...
Russia-Africa Monitor #9 — 16-22 December 2024
African delegation stumbles, African Initiative sanctioned, African base denied
open.substack.com
December 22, 2024 at 12:41 PM
New Russia-Africa Monitor is out!
More details are emerging about Russia's post-Assad troubles in Africa, with new developments from Mali to Libya to Sudan. Plus, slightly fewer links (29) than usual because I caught a cold. :(
Subscribe! open.substack.com/pub/klyszcz/...
More details are emerging about Russia's post-Assad troubles in Africa, with new developments from Mali to Libya to Sudan. Plus, slightly fewer links (29) than usual because I caught a cold. :(
Subscribe! open.substack.com/pub/klyszcz/...
Reposted by Jamie
Looking through the recent US report on Chinese military.
Some interesting bits from my perspective:
1/7
Some interesting bits from my perspective:
1/7
December 19, 2024 at 3:00 PM
Looking through the recent US report on Chinese military.
Some interesting bits from my perspective:
1/7
Some interesting bits from my perspective:
1/7
Reposted by Jamie
This likely refers to the deployment of the 5th gen combat NC3 (ИАСБУ), it's links, including in tandem with new weapon systems, and of the new overall C3 system for the service (that ИАСБУ is a component of), modernization of some key high level CPs.
6/8
6/8
December 17, 2024 at 3:00 PM
This likely refers to the deployment of the 5th gen combat NC3 (ИАСБУ), it's links, including in tandem with new weapon systems, and of the new overall C3 system for the service (that ИАСБУ is a component of), modernization of some key high level CPs.
6/8
6/8
Reposted by Jamie
Russian-Chinese consultations on missile defence and missile aspects of strategic stability were held on December 11 in Beijing.
The Sides had an in-depth discussion of these matters in the context of maintaining global and regional security and, in particular...
The Sides had an in-depth discussion of these matters in the context of maintaining global and regional security and, in particular...
December 13, 2024 at 3:50 PM
Russian-Chinese consultations on missile defence and missile aspects of strategic stability were held on December 11 in Beijing.
The Sides had an in-depth discussion of these matters in the context of maintaining global and regional security and, in particular...
The Sides had an in-depth discussion of these matters in the context of maintaining global and regional security and, in particular...
So 8 days on and this take needs updating. Russia has not (and does not appear likely to) brought to bear the capabilities required to save Assad. Russia’s foothold in the country is in an increasingly precarious position.
Apparent casualties amongst Russian SSO in Syria today as the rebels have launched an offensive. Whilst the VKS will inevitably bomb the offensive to a halt, it’s a reminder for Russia about how the Syria file is still one that needs attention. How does Putin balance an unstable ME with Ukr?
December 5, 2024 at 5:03 PM
So 8 days on and this take needs updating. Russia has not (and does not appear likely to) brought to bear the capabilities required to save Assad. Russia’s foothold in the country is in an increasingly precarious position.
Apparent casualties amongst Russian SSO in Syria today as the rebels have launched an offensive. Whilst the VKS will inevitably bomb the offensive to a halt, it’s a reminder for Russia about how the Syria file is still one that needs attention. How does Putin balance an unstable ME with Ukr?
November 27, 2024 at 2:17 PM
Apparent casualties amongst Russian SSO in Syria today as the rebels have launched an offensive. Whilst the VKS will inevitably bomb the offensive to a halt, it’s a reminder for Russia about how the Syria file is still one that needs attention. How does Putin balance an unstable ME with Ukr?
Reposted by Jamie
A YaRS regimental central position, courtesy of dr.Kornev's community on TG.
I believe that it is based on public land registry data, and shows positions of many key components of this position (ie radio apertures), if with imperfect markings data (ie wrong radio bands stated).
I believe that it is based on public land registry data, and shows positions of many key components of this position (ie radio apertures), if with imperfect markings data (ie wrong radio bands stated).
November 26, 2024 at 8:17 PM
A YaRS regimental central position, courtesy of dr.Kornev's community on TG.
I believe that it is based on public land registry data, and shows positions of many key components of this position (ie radio apertures), if with imperfect markings data (ie wrong radio bands stated).
I believe that it is based on public land registry data, and shows positions of many key components of this position (ie radio apertures), if with imperfect markings data (ie wrong radio bands stated).
Reposted by Jamie
All-stars commentaries on the revised version of the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence: russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics...
#NukeSky
#NukeSky
RIAC :: The Stabilizing “Basic Principles”: Moscow Reduces Options for Pre-Nuclear Escalation
On November 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Executive Order Approving the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. The new nuclear doctrine i...
russiancouncil.ru
November 26, 2024 at 2:44 PM
All-stars commentaries on the revised version of the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence: russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics...
#NukeSky
#NukeSky
Reposted by Jamie
Regarding the BBC interview with the Russian (12 GUMO) officer. The unit “shut inside the base” is precisely the opposite of "we were ready to launch." Readiness means dispersal. He was "part of the base’s security unit." Putting it on alert is NOT preparing a launch www.bbc.com/news/article...
Russian deserter reveals war secrets of guarding nuclear base
A combat alert was in place on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, he tells the BBC.
www.bbc.com
November 26, 2024 at 1:22 PM
Regarding the BBC interview with the Russian (12 GUMO) officer. The unit “shut inside the base” is precisely the opposite of "we were ready to launch." Readiness means dispersal. He was "part of the base’s security unit." Putting it on alert is NOT preparing a launch www.bbc.com/news/article...