Matej Rafael Risko
@matejrisko.bsky.social
Researcher, focus on Nukes | Missiles | Deterrence | Strategy & Planning | War & International Security | Air Power | Wargames | Strictly personal views, Usual Cavetas
Igitur qui desiderat pacem praeparet bellum
Igitur qui desiderat pacem praeparet bellum
Pinned
Animated Flight Sequence of a Minuteman III ICBM - Produced by Northrop Grumman (2007)
YouTube video by Association of Air Force Missileers (AAFM)
youtu.be
World-wide delivery in 30 minutes or less or your next one is free.
youtu.be/Mvo54LJcXe8?...
youtu.be/Mvo54LJcXe8?...
They reinvented MBB’s Sänger, I see
German start-up Polaris Spaceplanes announces they received a contract from Bundeswehr procurement office BAAINBw for manufacture & operation of a combat jet-sized hypersonic research testbed. The two stage reusable plane is to be flight ready end of 2027.
www.hartpunkt.de/bundeswehr-b...
www.hartpunkt.de/bundeswehr-b...
Bundeswehr beauftragt Polaris POLARIS Raumflugzeuge mit dem Bau eines wiederverwendbaren Hyperschallflugzeuges
Das Bundeswehr-Beschaffungsamt BAAINBw hat das Bremer Startup-Unternehmen POLARIS Raumflugzeuge damit beauftragt, ein zweistufiges, horizontal startendes und vollständig wiederverwendbares Hyperschall...
www.hartpunkt.de
January 27, 2026 at 9:15 PM
They reinvented MBB’s Sänger, I see
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Well well, if it isn't the KKV brothers.
January 27, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Well well, if it isn't the KKV brothers.
The situation is obviously much, much worse than during the Caribbean missile crisis in October 1962, when it was seven minutes. I wonder for how many seconds they will set it when the New Start expires and the US announces uploading.
The Bulletin’s Science and Security Board is a select group of globally recognized leaders with a specific focus on nuclear risk, climate change, & disruptive technologies. In the 2026 Doomsday Clock statement, they explain why the Clock is now at 85 seconds to midnight.
Read more: buff.ly/17yAznF
Read more: buff.ly/17yAznF
January 27, 2026 at 4:22 PM
The situation is obviously much, much worse than during the Caribbean missile crisis in October 1962, when it was seven minutes. I wonder for how many seconds they will set it when the New Start expires and the US announces uploading.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
1-6
"Denmark was ready for battle ...
The order was issued as recently as last week. If Greenland were attacked, contrary to expectations, Danish soldiers would be ready with live ammunition."
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
"Denmark was ready for battle ...
The order was issued as recently as last week. If Greenland were attacked, contrary to expectations, Danish soldiers would be ready with live ammunition."
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Danmark var klar til kamp: Her er ordren til de danske soldater i Grønland
Ordren blev udstedt så sent som i sidste uge. Hvis Grønland mod forventning blev angrebet, stod danske soldater klar med skarp ammunition.
www.dr.dk
January 23, 2026 at 8:31 AM
1-6
"Denmark was ready for battle ...
The order was issued as recently as last week. If Greenland were attacked, contrary to expectations, Danish soldiers would be ready with live ammunition."
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
"Denmark was ready for battle ...
The order was issued as recently as last week. If Greenland were attacked, contrary to expectations, Danish soldiers would be ready with live ammunition."
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
"'We are discussing how to protect Europe with a nuclear deterrent with or without the United States,' one of the European officials said. Another described the discussions among European leaders about ways to guard against a nuclear-armed Russia without the U.S. as 'intense and productive.'"
Doubting U.S. resolve, Europe looks to bolster its own nuclear arsenal
The discussions have taken on new urgency as President Trump escalates his criticism of Europe. Germany and Poland already have suggested France’s nuclear weapons could be expanded to defend their cou...
www.nbcnews.com
January 23, 2026 at 6:02 AM
"'We are discussing how to protect Europe with a nuclear deterrent with or without the United States,' one of the European officials said. Another described the discussions among European leaders about ways to guard against a nuclear-armed Russia without the U.S. as 'intense and productive.'"
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Americans cannot fully comprehend the horror of what they have done by forcing the rest of Europe to concede that de Gaulle was correct
"European nations are exploring a range of options, three of the European officials said. They said those include improving France’s nuclear weaponry, redeploying French nuclear-capable bombers outside of France, and beefing up French and other European conventional forces on NATO’s eastern flank."
Doubting U.S. resolve, Europe looks to bolster its own nuclear arsenal
The discussions have taken on new urgency as President Trump escalates his criticism of Europe. Germany and Poland already have suggested France’s nuclear weapons could be expanded to defend their cou...
www.nbcnews.com
January 23, 2026 at 8:35 AM
Americans cannot fully comprehend the horror of what they have done by forcing the rest of Europe to concede that de Gaulle was correct
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Some nice images of Boeing-Rockwell-RD LEAP III kinetic kill vehicle. You can also see it mounted on what looks like a Minuteman ICBM next to a RV.
January 17, 2026 at 4:23 PM
Some nice images of Boeing-Rockwell-RD LEAP III kinetic kill vehicle. You can also see it mounted on what looks like a Minuteman ICBM next to a RV.
Apparently a Russian heavy decoy released along the threat corridor (in a post-boost phase). Penetration packages (including these) constitute a 25-30% of payload (depending on the mission profile). Nice of them to let us examine the characteristics of their RVs and penetration aids.
January 10, 2026 at 5:23 PM
Apparently a Russian heavy decoy released along the threat corridor (in a post-boost phase). Penetration packages (including these) constitute a 25-30% of payload (depending on the mission profile). Nice of them to let us examine the characteristics of their RVs and penetration aids.
Well, f*** you, you idiotic egomaniac. People died because they listened to the call of the US. I myself know ppl who were injured,and I know of those who literally lost loved ones in Afghanistan.Excuse me for not being diplomatic,this trampling on the memory of dead NATO soldiers angers me greatly
Trump: “Without my involvement, Russia would have ALL OF UKRAINE right now…Norway, a NATO Member, foolishly chose not to give me the Noble Peace Prize. But that doesn’t matter!”
January 7, 2026 at 6:57 PM
Well, f*** you, you idiotic egomaniac. People died because they listened to the call of the US. I myself know ppl who were injured,and I know of those who literally lost loved ones in Afghanistan.Excuse me for not being diplomatic,this trampling on the memory of dead NATO soldiers angers me greatly
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Gotta admit, this is the first time my words have appeared in USA Today (at least to my knowledge). No, I'm not quoted in the article, but, in spite of the credit given to an Air Force General, I coined the phrase "nuclear sponge" to describe the strategy of maintaining lots of aim points (1)
I had a really fun time working on the code that was used to make these fallout visualizations for this USA Today article. I will soon be incorporating some of it into the NUKEMAP and probably making a version of this "mass attack fallout mapper" for public use. www.usatoday.com/graphics/int...
Fallout maps show how an attack on nuclear silos would impact US cities
USA TODAY mapped the far-reaching potential consequences of a nuclear strike against America's 450 nuclear missile silos.
www.usatoday.com
January 6, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Gotta admit, this is the first time my words have appeared in USA Today (at least to my knowledge). No, I'm not quoted in the article, but, in spite of the credit given to an Air Force General, I coined the phrase "nuclear sponge" to describe the strategy of maintaining lots of aim points (1)
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
🔺Northern Fleet Air activity
At least one Russian Navy NFAF Tu-142 MPA concluded a nine hour sortie in the Barents Sea / Norwegian Sea, PM 6 January 2026.
⚠️Aircraft likely supported warship/subsurface ASW activity but may have conducted wider area surveillance (SUSCH) activity.
At least one Russian Navy NFAF Tu-142 MPA concluded a nine hour sortie in the Barents Sea / Norwegian Sea, PM 6 January 2026.
⚠️Aircraft likely supported warship/subsurface ASW activity but may have conducted wider area surveillance (SUSCH) activity.
January 6, 2026 at 5:34 PM
🔺Northern Fleet Air activity
At least one Russian Navy NFAF Tu-142 MPA concluded a nine hour sortie in the Barents Sea / Norwegian Sea, PM 6 January 2026.
⚠️Aircraft likely supported warship/subsurface ASW activity but may have conducted wider area surveillance (SUSCH) activity.
At least one Russian Navy NFAF Tu-142 MPA concluded a nine hour sortie in the Barents Sea / Norwegian Sea, PM 6 January 2026.
⚠️Aircraft likely supported warship/subsurface ASW activity but may have conducted wider area surveillance (SUSCH) activity.
Thx:)
I added in X thread (where I attached this screenshot cos I’m lazy person)
“This is an open prediction, and I would be very happy to be wrong, but I would be a very poor analyst if I said what I wanted to hear and replaced judgment with wishful thinking. This is probably how it will happen”
I added in X thread (where I attached this screenshot cos I’m lazy person)
“This is an open prediction, and I would be very happy to be wrong, but I would be a very poor analyst if I said what I wanted to hear and replaced judgment with wishful thinking. This is probably how it will happen”
I feel like this thread underestimates the likelihood of a non military takeover of Greenland. To quote @matejrisko.bsky.social:
What would European troops, as unlikely as they are, even solve in this case? Just make it seem like we are the bad guys and make it easier for the US to gain leverage in
What would European troops, as unlikely as they are, even solve in this case? Just make it seem like we are the bad guys and make it easier for the US to gain leverage in
January 6, 2026 at 5:43 PM
Thx:)
I added in X thread (where I attached this screenshot cos I’m lazy person)
“This is an open prediction, and I would be very happy to be wrong, but I would be a very poor analyst if I said what I wanted to hear and replaced judgment with wishful thinking. This is probably how it will happen”
I added in X thread (where I attached this screenshot cos I’m lazy person)
“This is an open prediction, and I would be very happy to be wrong, but I would be a very poor analyst if I said what I wanted to hear and replaced judgment with wishful thinking. This is probably how it will happen”
A bit late (I can recommend logging off for a moment from time to time), but still - folks, all the best for the new year. May the 2026 be better than 2025.
Also, have a meme.
Also, have a meme.
January 2, 2026 at 12:31 AM
A bit late (I can recommend logging off for a moment from time to time), but still - folks, all the best for the new year. May the 2026 be better than 2025.
Also, have a meme.
Also, have a meme.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
#SubSunday #Submarines
Los Angeles-class Flight III nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Alexandria (SSN-757) commanded by CDR Mike Bernacchi surfaces in the North Polar Ice Cap region as she takes part in a joint USN/RN operation ICEX 2007. Photo by PO Phot Terry Seward.
Los Angeles-class Flight III nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Alexandria (SSN-757) commanded by CDR Mike Bernacchi surfaces in the North Polar Ice Cap region as she takes part in a joint USN/RN operation ICEX 2007. Photo by PO Phot Terry Seward.
December 21, 2025 at 11:29 AM
#SubSunday #Submarines
Los Angeles-class Flight III nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Alexandria (SSN-757) commanded by CDR Mike Bernacchi surfaces in the North Polar Ice Cap region as she takes part in a joint USN/RN operation ICEX 2007. Photo by PO Phot Terry Seward.
Los Angeles-class Flight III nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Alexandria (SSN-757) commanded by CDR Mike Bernacchi surfaces in the North Polar Ice Cap region as she takes part in a joint USN/RN operation ICEX 2007. Photo by PO Phot Terry Seward.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
First UK-France Nuclear Steering Group took place on 10 December.
UK and France presented their national approaches to strengthening deterrence in Europe and confirmed desire to cooperate.
They observed operation POKER, French strategic nuclear exercise. First time foreigners have done so.
UK and France presented their national approaches to strengthening deterrence in Europe and confirmed desire to cooperate.
They observed operation POKER, French strategic nuclear exercise. First time foreigners have done so.
New UK-France Nuclear Steering Group met for the first time in Paris.
Read the joint press release.
share.google
December 20, 2025 at 9:38 AM
First UK-France Nuclear Steering Group took place on 10 December.
UK and France presented their national approaches to strengthening deterrence in Europe and confirmed desire to cooperate.
They observed operation POKER, French strategic nuclear exercise. First time foreigners have done so.
UK and France presented their national approaches to strengthening deterrence in Europe and confirmed desire to cooperate.
They observed operation POKER, French strategic nuclear exercise. First time foreigners have done so.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
ADLER is very much IN Sweden, only 2 nautical miles from the coast.
Legally Sweden have much more legroom here then if she was outside our territory.
Let's see if we use it. Onboard one would likely find weapons or supplies headed for Libya/Syria or similar Russian base.
Legally Sweden have much more legroom here then if she was outside our territory.
Let's see if we use it. Onboard one would likely find weapons or supplies headed for Libya/Syria or similar Russian base.
December 20, 2025 at 11:18 AM
ADLER is very much IN Sweden, only 2 nautical miles from the coast.
Legally Sweden have much more legroom here then if she was outside our territory.
Let's see if we use it. Onboard one would likely find weapons or supplies headed for Libya/Syria or similar Russian base.
Legally Sweden have much more legroom here then if she was outside our territory.
Let's see if we use it. Onboard one would likely find weapons or supplies headed for Libya/Syria or similar Russian base.
This picture is clearly from Finland. If you know you know.
December 19, 2025 at 3:44 PM
This picture is clearly from Finland. If you know you know.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
This is only "news" if one is new to the debate/discussion of hypersonic glide weapons. From the beginning, (i.e. the early 2000s), the Pentagon talked about these weapons as a "niche" capability or, more accurately, a "leading edge" capability. The goal was always to knock down the A2/AD doors. (1)
December 17, 2025 at 11:28 AM
This is only "news" if one is new to the debate/discussion of hypersonic glide weapons. From the beginning, (i.e. the early 2000s), the Pentagon talked about these weapons as a "niche" capability or, more accurately, a "leading edge" capability. The goal was always to knock down the A2/AD doors. (1)
It contains a small amounts of HE to enhance the penetrators (lateral velocity)
December 19, 2025 at 2:28 PM
It contains a small amounts of HE to enhance the penetrators (lateral velocity)
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
🇸🇪 Sweden’s Navy confirms Russia is conducting a military operation in the Baltic Sea to protect its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers used to evade sanctions.
Russian naval ships now regularly patrol key sea lanes; some tankers reportedly carry armed, uniformed personnel.
Russian naval ships now regularly patrol key sea lanes; some tankers reportedly carry armed, uniformed personnel.
December 17, 2025 at 7:09 AM
🇸🇪 Sweden’s Navy confirms Russia is conducting a military operation in the Baltic Sea to protect its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers used to evade sanctions.
Russian naval ships now regularly patrol key sea lanes; some tankers reportedly carry armed, uniformed personnel.
Russian naval ships now regularly patrol key sea lanes; some tankers reportedly carry armed, uniformed personnel.
Ngl, this is hilarious
December 15, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Ngl, this is hilarious
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Get in, Jamelle. We're drowning Soviet motor rifle battalions in enhanced radiation yield.
December 10, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Get in, Jamelle. We're drowning Soviet motor rifle battalions in enhanced radiation yield.
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
Very sad to hear that Bill Burr at @NSArchive has passed away. Over the years his work of documenting nuclear history with targeted and relentless FOIA requests created The Nuclear Vault with invaluable collection of declassified documents and analysis. nsarchive.gwu.edu/project/nucl...
December 14, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Very sad to hear that Bill Burr at @NSArchive has passed away. Over the years his work of documenting nuclear history with targeted and relentless FOIA requests created The Nuclear Vault with invaluable collection of declassified documents and analysis. nsarchive.gwu.edu/project/nucl...
The unsuccessful SS-X-30 test suggests that the programme is experiencing problems (let the SLBM designer build a liquid-fueled, heavy ICBM) but they will eventually overcome them. This is quite worrying, albeit an expected development.
1/6
1/6
December 9, 2025 at 8:09 PM
The unsuccessful SS-X-30 test suggests that the programme is experiencing problems (let the SLBM designer build a liquid-fueled, heavy ICBM) but they will eventually overcome them. This is quite worrying, albeit an expected development.
1/6
1/6
Reposted by Matej Rafael Risko
All these arguments about how the stuff we have is obsolete ignore how badly other countries want what we have.
You know who doesn't think drones can replace cruise missiles? Ukraine.
You know who doesn't think carriers and next gen fighters are obsolete? China.
You know who doesn't think drones can replace cruise missiles? Ukraine.
You know who doesn't think carriers and next gen fighters are obsolete? China.
December 8, 2025 at 2:49 PM
All these arguments about how the stuff we have is obsolete ignore how badly other countries want what we have.
You know who doesn't think drones can replace cruise missiles? Ukraine.
You know who doesn't think carriers and next gen fighters are obsolete? China.
You know who doesn't think drones can replace cruise missiles? Ukraine.
You know who doesn't think carriers and next gen fighters are obsolete? China.