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Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
@thebulletin.org
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The best thinking on existential threats since 1945. Nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies. We set the #DoomsdayClock. thebulletin.org
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What would happen if Chicago were the target of a nuclear bomb?

Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social spoke to the Bulletin about what people should know about nuclear weapons—from basic terminology, to which nations have them, and what could occur when they're used.
What you should know about nuclear weapons
On October 29th, Donald Trump announced on his social media site, Truth Social, that he had instructed the Department of War (formerly the Department of Defense) to “start testing our Nuclear Weapons…
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November 10, 2025 at 7:17 PM
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Today, after more than a decade, global climate negotiations return to Latin America.

María de los Ángeles Orfila writes that COP30 "represents a political test for the region: Can Latin America this time speak with a more united and recognizable voice in global climate governance?"
Can Latin America find common ground at COP30?
Although Latin America contributes only about 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, many of its territories rank among the most climate-vulnerable on the planet.
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November 10, 2025 at 3:23 PM
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"We're definitely seeing an expansion of conditions ripe for tropical storms and hurricanes," says meteorologist and Bulletin contributor @johnmoralestv.bsky.social in a discussion on Hurricane Melissa and climate change with @katiephang.bsky.social. ⬇️
Expert SOUNDS ALARM as DEADLY STORMS SPIRAL Out Of CONTROL
Extreme weather events like Hurricane Melissa “take lives and ruin lives.” Meteorologist, John Morales joins Katie Phang for a sobering conversation about climate change & how Mother Nature is coming…
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November 10, 2025 at 2:52 PM
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In case you missed it: last week, the Bulletin hosted three nuclear and military tech experts to break down 'A House of Dynamite' and answer viewer's questions about what happened in the film.

You can watch the full discussion on our YouTube channel. ⬇️
Experts React: Netflix’s 'A House of Dynamite'
A nuclear missile is headed towards the United States in 'A House of Dynamite', Netflix’s new movie from director Kathryn Bigelow. Tension builds as leaders from different branches of the military and government realize the gravity of the moment and react both as officials with a duty, and as humans faced with the unthinkable.
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November 9, 2025 at 5:51 PM
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A recently declassified document from nearly 50 years ago reinforces concerns about the proliferation potential of small modular reactors that require fuels using high-assay, low-enriched uranium, writes Edwin Lyman @nucsafetyucs.bsky.social of @ucs.org.
Declassified cable reinforces proliferation concerns about high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel
The declassified document reveals an urgent need for an international review of the proliferation risks of HALEU.
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November 7, 2025 at 5:22 PM
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Bulletin nuclear affairs editor François Diaz-Maurin @francoisdm.bsky.social spoke to Mediapart @mediapart.fr about Donald Trump's announcement regarding a possible return to American nuclear weapons tests. ⬇️
November 7, 2025 at 3:04 PM
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Today at 11:30 AM CST / 12:30 PM EST, join the Bulletin for an expert discussion unpacking "A House of Dynamite."

Watch below. ⬇️
Experts React: Netflix’s 'A House of Dynamite'
A nuclear missile is headed towards the United States in 'A House of Dynamite', Netflix’s new movie from director Kathryn Bigelow. Tension builds as leaders ...
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November 6, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Reposted by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
gabrielairosa.bsky.social
@dexeve.bsky.social and I wrote this piece a while ago for
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
November 6, 2025 at 4:03 PM
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Belarus's nuclear sharing arrangement with the Kremlin makes it far more difficult for Minsk to act independently, write @gabrielairosa.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social.

"The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb." ⬇️
The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb
Despite being highly anticipated, the sudden change in public rhetoric about this year's Zapad strategic military exercise suggests that the Russia-Belarus relationship may be more complicated than…
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November 6, 2025 at 3:58 PM
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Tomorrow at 11:30 AM CST / 12:30 PM EST, join the Bulletin for an expert discussion unpacking "A House of Dynamite"—what was real, what was exaggerated, and what would happen next.

Register for free below. ⬇️
Experts React: Netflix's A House of Dynamite
On November 6, join the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for an expert discussion on Netflix's A House of Dynamite movie, including US capacity to defend against a direct nuclear strike, arms…
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November 5, 2025 at 5:48 PM
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When it comes to building a future with zero carbon emissions, "Real world solutions exist now and are easily scalable with the right investments and priorities. The obstacles aren't technological. They're political."

— @michaelemann.bsky.social
You can’t reboot the planet if you crash it
What Gates is putting forward aren’t legitimate arguments that can be made in good faith. They are shopworn fossil fuel industry talking points.
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November 4, 2025 at 9:30 PM
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United States and Russian activity represents 17.6% of global greenhouse gas emissions, write members of the @ponarseurasia.bsky.social Task Force on Russia in a Changing Climate. Their self-interested approach to climate change will make it harder to raise adaptation funding for other nations.
The climate consequences of the US-Russia global realignment
Trump and Putin have both expressed support for better ties between the US and Russia. Despite obvious different interests in some areas, the two both want to promote the oil and gas sector—and will…
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November 4, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Reposted by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
patriciajaworek.bsky.social
The ending of A House of Dynamite leaves many questions unanswered, intentionally. In reality, we won’t have that luxury.

My colleague Isabelle Williams and I pick up where the movie ends, exploring what would unfold in the minutes, hours, and months after the missile hits Chicago.
November 3, 2025 at 11:46 PM
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Sign up for emails and receive a direct line to the best thinking on nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies.
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November 4, 2025 at 2:30 PM
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Rebecka Green of @ploughshares.bsky.social watched over 20 films about nuclear weapons in one month, which taught her "several valuable lessons. For example, firing up Threads at 10:00 AM on a Tuesday morning can remind a person about the importance of a well-rounded, but not too heavy, breakfast."
Box office bombs: What I learned watching 20 nuclear films in a month
The quandaries posed by the nuclear film pantheon are the same ones experts in the nuclear threat reduction community face daily.
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November 3, 2025 at 5:42 PM
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Assuming that the missile in 'A House of Dynamite' carried a several-hundred-kiloton nuclear warhead and detonated directly above Chicago's Loop, what would follow?

@patriciajaworek.bsky.social and Isabelle Williams of @nti.org explain. ⬇️
The “House of Dynamite” sequel you didn’t know you needed
Assuming that the missile in "A House of Dynamite" carried a several-hundred-kiloton nuclear warhead and detonated directly above Chicago’s Loop, what would ensue in the seconds, minutes, days, and…
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November 3, 2025 at 2:35 PM
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North Korea has turned deception into strategy, weaponizing ambiguity to mask nuclear progress. Its success reveals how bureaucratic inertia within United States intelligence creates blind spots, writes Lauren Cho. ⬇️
How North Korea outsmarts US intelligence agencies—and what they should do to adapt
North Korea has turned deception into strategy, weaponizing ambiguity to mask nuclear progress. Its success reveals how bureaucratic inertia within US intelligence creates blind spots.
thebulletin.org
November 1, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Reposted by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
michaelemann.bsky.social
An excerpt from my new piece for @thebulletin.org on Bill Gates' new climate missive:
For years when I would criticize Gates for what I consider to be his misguided take on climate, colleagues would say, “you just don’t understand what Gates is saying!” Now, with Donald Trump and the right-wing Murdoch media machine (the Wall Street Journal editorial board and now an op-ed by none other than Lomborg himself in the New York Post) celebrating Gates’ new missive, I can confidently turn around and say, “No, you didn’t understand what he was saying.”
October 31, 2025 at 7:20 PM
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"Here's the thing, Bill Gates: There is no 'patch' for the climate crisis. And there is no way to reboot the planet if you crash it. The only safe and reliable way out when you find yourself in a climate hole is to stop digging—and burning—fossil fuels."
— @michaelemann.bsky.social
You can’t reboot the planet if you crash it
What Gates is putting forward aren’t legitimate arguments that can be made in good faith. They are shopworn fossil fuel industry talking points.
thebulletin.org
October 31, 2025 at 6:45 PM
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"The climate consequences of the US-Russia global realignment," by members of the @ponarseurasia.bsky.social Task Force on Russia in a Changing Climate.

This Bulletin magazine article is available to all readers for a limited time. ⬇️
The climate consequences of the US-Russia global realignment
Trump and Putin have both expressed support for better ties between the US and Russia. Despite obvious different interests in some areas, the two both want to promote the oil and gas sector—and will…
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October 31, 2025 at 4:43 PM
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What did Trump mean by resuming nuclear testing? And what are the implications, in the worst-case scenario?

Experts respond to Trump's proposal to resume United States nuclear tests. ⬇️
The experts respond to Trump’s proposal to “start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis”
What did Trump mean by resuming nuclear testing? And what are the implications, in the worst-case scenario?
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October 31, 2025 at 2:31 PM
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Experts respond to Trump's proposal to "start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" as other nations. ⬇️
The experts respond to Trump’s proposal to “start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis”
What did Trump mean by resuming nuclear testing? And what are the implications, in the worst-case scenario?
thebulletin.org
October 30, 2025 at 7:37 PM
Reposted by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
dkspaulding.bsky.social
Murmurs from this admin about nuclear testing are not new, which is why earlier this year, we published this piece in the @thebulletin.org on why a rapid test as a show of force is a BAD, BAD idea.
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Donald Trump has reportedly told the Pentagon to resume nuclear tests (though it's unclear if he refers to explosive or missile tests).

Here's a thread of relevant Bulletin articles, beginning with this 2025 piece by Sulgiye Park, Jennifer Knox, and @dkspaulding.bsky.social. ⬇️
Why it would be a bad idea for the Trump administration to conduct a "rapid" nuclear test
The goal of conducting a fast-tracked nuclear test can only be political, not scientific. The United States has much to lose and little to gain from a new test.
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October 30, 2025 at 4:27 PM
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Donald Trump has reportedly told the Pentagon to resume nuclear tests (though it's unclear if he refers to explosive or missile tests).

Here's a thread of relevant Bulletin articles, beginning with this 2025 piece by Sulgiye Park, Jennifer Knox, and @dkspaulding.bsky.social. ⬇️
Why it would be a bad idea for the Trump administration to conduct a "rapid" nuclear test
The goal of conducting a fast-tracked nuclear test can only be political, not scientific. The United States has much to lose and little to gain from a new test.
thebulletin.org
October 30, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Reposted by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
clintworthing.bsky.social
Now that A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE has been out for about a week, I spoke with @thebulletin.org president Alexandra Bell about nuclear readiness, what would happen to Chicago if we got nuked, and our real odds for deterring an ICBM.

For @blockclubchi.bsky.social: blockclubchicago.org/2025/10/30/w...
What Would Happen If Chicago Got Nuked? A Nuclear Expert Talks About 'A House Of Dynamite'
The surprisingly prescient Kathryn Bigelow movie that just dropped on Netflix explores what happens when a presumably nuclear missile is headed toward the United States.
blockclubchicago.org
October 30, 2025 at 1:30 PM