Nicolas Van de Sijpe
@nicvdsijpe.bsky.social
Empirical economist @ Sheffield. Working on/recently worked on: (anticipated) discrimination, IV, development finance institutions, foreign aid. https://sites.google.com/site/nicolasvandesijpe/research Widowed dad of 2.
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain
New @nberpubs: "The Economic Impact of Brexit" www.nber.org/papers/w34459
"by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time." 😲
"by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time." 😲
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
A win for economics (who predicted this), a loss for Britain
"These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%." www.nber.org/papers/w34459 #EconSky
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
November 10, 2025 at 3:06 PM
"These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%." www.nber.org/papers/w34459 #EconSky
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
"There is simply no sign of a fiscal catastrophe from the 'Boriswave'. Recent migrants are very likely to be employed, paying tax and seem to be contributing to British society..it will help, rather than hurt, Britain’s fiscal position."
Analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Lower migration is bad news for the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe
Lauren Gilbert argues that migrants to the UK are net fiscal contributors, adding much more to the economy than they take out, and that the recent collapse in immigration will harm the UK's economic p...
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:00 PM
"There is simply no sign of a fiscal catastrophe from the 'Boriswave'. Recent migrants are very likely to be employed, paying tax and seem to be contributing to British society..it will help, rather than hurt, Britain’s fiscal position."
Analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
What a people!
A French cyclist survived for three days after a horrendous 130-foot fall into a ravine, kept alive by the bottles of red wine he had in his shopping bag, police said.
Cyclist falls down 130-foot ravine in France, survives 3 days by drinking wine he had in shopping bag
A helicopter airlifted him to hospital, with a rescue doctor calling his survival "a miracle."
cbsn.ws
October 31, 2025 at 2:24 PM
What a people!
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Academics in Assyria in the 7th c BC complain that admin is preventing them from doing research and teaching
November 3, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Academics in Assyria in the 7th c BC complain that admin is preventing them from doing research and teaching
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
“Foster is now calling for “proper stress testing” of any proposed changes to immigration policy to ensure there is “a clear understanding of the human impact...” www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Windrush commissioner: Black Britons asking if UK is ‘going backwards’
Rev Clive Foster says rhetoric targeting legal migrants makes some wonder if history is repeating itself
www.theguardian.com
October 26, 2025 at 9:51 PM
“Foster is now calling for “proper stress testing” of any proposed changes to immigration policy to ensure there is “a clear understanding of the human impact...” www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Not thousands -- these policies would mean deporting hundreds of thousands if not millions of people from the UK www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Labour demands clarity on Tory plan to strip thousands of right to stay in UK
Anna Turley says legally settled people threatened by Katie Lam’s proposals deserve urgent clarification
www.theguardian.com
October 26, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Not thousands -- these policies would mean deporting hundreds of thousands if not millions of people from the UK www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Encouraging. Seems many Conservatives don’t actually want to be the BNP plus plus Idi Amin tribute party. Maybe because such a toxic stance is deeply unpopular. Maybe because it is deeply wrong and cuts against core British values.
Conservatives complain to whips about fellow MP’s comments on legally settled people
Conservatives complain to whips about fellow MP’s comments on legally settled people
Exclusive: Criticism of Katie Lam comes amid widespread confusion in the party over its policy on indefinite leave to remain
Conservative MPs have complained to party whips after Katie Lam said many legally settled people should be deported to make the UK “culturally coherent”, the Guardian has learned.
Lam, seen as a rising Tory star, said last weekend she believed “a large number of people” living legally in the UK should have their right to stay revoked and “go home”. “What that will leave is a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people,” she told the Sunday Times. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
October 23, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Encouraging. Seems many Conservatives don’t actually want to be the BNP plus plus Idi Amin tribute party. Maybe because such a toxic stance is deeply unpopular. Maybe because it is deeply wrong and cuts against core British values.
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
NEW - Starmer on Katy Lam: "I can't tell you how much I disagree with her.
"People who are lawfully in this country, who have been working in our communities, our neighbours... to reach in and remove them from our country - for 'cultural reasons'. That is how far the Conservative party has sunk."
"People who are lawfully in this country, who have been working in our communities, our neighbours... to reach in and remove them from our country - for 'cultural reasons'. That is how far the Conservative party has sunk."
October 23, 2025 at 4:28 PM
NEW - Starmer on Katy Lam: "I can't tell you how much I disagree with her.
"People who are lawfully in this country, who have been working in our communities, our neighbours... to reach in and remove them from our country - for 'cultural reasons'. That is how far the Conservative party has sunk."
"People who are lawfully in this country, who have been working in our communities, our neighbours... to reach in and remove them from our country - for 'cultural reasons'. That is how far the Conservative party has sunk."
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
(if anyone would like to maybe start some sort of campaigning or pressure group of and on behalf of immigrants with ILR and settled status in Britain then I would be interested in helping, or indeed trying to get it off the ground myself, email in bio, etc)
October 22, 2025 at 9:55 AM
(if anyone would like to maybe start some sort of campaigning or pressure group of and on behalf of immigrants with ILR and settled status in Britain then I would be interested in helping, or indeed trying to get it off the ground myself, email in bio, etc)
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Draft Tory legislation on removing indefinite leave to remain is insane.
Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!
+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!
They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.
Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!
+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!
They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.
October 22, 2025 at 10:11 AM
Draft Tory legislation on removing indefinite leave to remain is insane.
Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!
+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!
They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.
Would chuck out those not earning over £38K - including many pensioners!
+ social protections seems to include child benefit, so load of people with (British!) kids!
They'd remove my sis & mum who've been here 50 years.
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
October 21, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
you can currently claim at least partial child benefits if you're earning up to 80k so that would be, in theory.......basically all parents on ILR and settled status? wtaf
Here Lam explicitly sets out her proposal - which is official Conservative Party policy - to deport long-standing legal permanent residents who have *ever* claimed any benefit, including the state pension or child benefit (even if the child is British), or who earn less than £39K.
October 22, 2025 at 8:06 AM
you can currently claim at least partial child benefits if you're earning up to 80k so that would be, in theory.......basically all parents on ILR and settled status? wtaf
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Tragically, once you introduce costly signaling, all mathematics is impure.
COMIC ◆ www.smbc-comics.com/comic/signal-4
PATREON ◆ www.patreon.com/ZachWeinersm...
STORE ◆ smbc-store.myshopify.com
COMIC ◆ www.smbc-comics.com/comic/signal-4
PATREON ◆ www.patreon.com/ZachWeinersm...
STORE ◆ smbc-store.myshopify.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Tragically, once you introduce costly signaling, all mathematics is impure.
COMIC ◆ www.smbc-comics.com/comic/signal-4
PATREON ◆ www.patreon.com/ZachWeinersm...
STORE ◆ smbc-store.myshopify.com
COMIC ◆ www.smbc-comics.com/comic/signal-4
PATREON ◆ www.patreon.com/ZachWeinersm...
STORE ◆ smbc-store.myshopify.com
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Worth saying that despite asking for more than 12 hours we’ve had nothing back from Labour on this
A Conservative MP tipped as a future party leader has been condemned for saying large numbers of legally settled families must be deported, in order to ensure the UK is mostly “culturally coherent”.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Tory MP criticised after demanding legally settled families be deported
Katie Lam said move would make UK ‘culturally coherent’ and that a large number of people ‘need to go home’
www.theguardian.com
October 20, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Worth saying that despite asking for more than 12 hours we’ve had nothing back from Labour on this
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
This in FT this morning 👇
October 20, 2025 at 6:34 AM
This in FT this morning 👇
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
I genuinely find this very worrying, as someone with settled status! sure, Lam probably won't be home secretary tomorrow, but the mood music is changing, you can feel it, and I just don't trust Labour to fight like hell on our behalf, so unclear where this is going to go
Lam hears "settled status" and "guaranteed by withdrawal treaty" as up for grabs:understood to be temporary "provisional arrangements" which can be transitional and unsettled if and when you want to
That is highly counterintuitive as language of 'settled', as law & as politics of Treaty guarantees.
That is highly counterintuitive as language of 'settled', as law & as politics of Treaty guarantees.
October 19, 2025 at 9:11 AM
I genuinely find this very worrying, as someone with settled status! sure, Lam probably won't be home secretary tomorrow, but the mood music is changing, you can feel it, and I just don't trust Labour to fight like hell on our behalf, so unclear where this is going to go
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Sunday Times interview Tory "rising star" Katie Lam
She is clear she wants lots of legal migrants to be told to "go home" so as "to leave a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people"
(The interviewer suggests she is scrapping ILR or stripping people of it)
She is clear she wants lots of legal migrants to be told to "go home" so as "to leave a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people"
(The interviewer suggests she is scrapping ILR or stripping people of it)
October 18, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Sunday Times interview Tory "rising star" Katie Lam
She is clear she wants lots of legal migrants to be told to "go home" so as "to leave a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people"
(The interviewer suggests she is scrapping ILR or stripping people of it)
She is clear she wants lots of legal migrants to be told to "go home" so as "to leave a mostly but not entirely culturally coherent group of people"
(The interviewer suggests she is scrapping ILR or stripping people of it)
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Wrote about Katie Lam
In defence of the rules-based order
The last time I saw my cousin, the former Tory MP Danny Kruger, I found myself trying to ginger him up a bit. I said, which I thought then and thought now – and which I can’t think it is betraying a c...
www.spectator.co.uk
October 20, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Wrote about Katie Lam
My son had to write a pitch to become his class's "Voice person". I thought I'd help but apparently "I will fight for your right to party" or "Make this school great again" are not appropriate closing arguments for his pitch. 🤷
October 16, 2025 at 8:44 AM
My son had to write a pitch to become his class's "Voice person". I thought I'd help but apparently "I will fight for your right to party" or "Make this school great again" are not appropriate closing arguments for his pitch. 🤷
From my colleague Antonio Navas: "How this year’s Nobel winners changed the thinking on economic growth" theconversation.com/how-this-yea... #EconSky
How this year’s Nobel winners changed the thinking on economic growth
A better understanding of growth could help to improve living standards in the world’s poorest countries.
theconversation.com
October 15, 2025 at 1:42 PM
From my colleague Antonio Navas: "How this year’s Nobel winners changed the thinking on economic growth" theconversation.com/how-this-yea... #EconSky
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
It was cool to see that Mokyr got the Nobel in economics. @antonhowes.bsky.social has a nice write up here: www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-inv...
Age of Invention: Joel Mokyr's Nobel
A triumph for history and the importance of ideas
www.ageofinvention.xyz
October 14, 2025 at 7:47 AM
It was cool to see that Mokyr got the Nobel in economics. @antonhowes.bsky.social has a nice write up here: www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-inv...
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
Paper under review for 6 months at a journal
October 14, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Paper under review for 6 months at a journal
Reposted by Nicolas Van de Sijpe
What a great day: legends of innovation economics Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt win the Nobel. Joel was a PhD advisor of mine, so need a full article! Included: good & bad explanations of the Indus Rev, Aghion's charisma, influence of Jon Hughes, French fashion houses: kevinbryanecon.com/mokyraghionh...
A Nobel for Innovation: Mokyr, Aghion, and Howitt
kevinbryanecon.com
October 14, 2025 at 12:41 AM
What a great day: legends of innovation economics Mokyr, Aghion and Howitt win the Nobel. Joel was a PhD advisor of mine, so need a full article! Included: good & bad explanations of the Indus Rev, Aghion's charisma, influence of Jon Hughes, French fashion houses: kevinbryanecon.com/mokyraghionh...