Matt Mayeski
@mmayeski.bsky.social
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
June 3: View our updated Labor Market spider chart with April data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): https://atlfed.org/3FH4Hwz
June 3, 2025 at 5:40 PM
June 3: View our updated Labor Market spider chart with April data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): https://atlfed.org/3FH4Hwz
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
𝗡𝗼, 𝗮 𝗯𝗶𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗞𝟮-𝟭𝟴𝗯'𝘀 𝗮𝘁𝗺𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲.
K2-18b is back in the news, now with a bold claim that biosignature molecules (DMS and/or DMDS) have been 'detected at 3σ'.
Most exoplanet astronomers are extremely sceptical about these claims, let's see why (1/n).
🔭🧪🪐 #exoplanet
K2-18b is back in the news, now with a bold claim that biosignature molecules (DMS and/or DMDS) have been 'detected at 3σ'.
Most exoplanet astronomers are extremely sceptical about these claims, let's see why (1/n).
🔭🧪🪐 #exoplanet
April 17, 2025 at 4:08 PM
𝗡𝗼, 𝗮 𝗯𝗶𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗞𝟮-𝟭𝟴𝗯'𝘀 𝗮𝘁𝗺𝗼𝘀𝗽𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲.
K2-18b is back in the news, now with a bold claim that biosignature molecules (DMS and/or DMDS) have been 'detected at 3σ'.
Most exoplanet astronomers are extremely sceptical about these claims, let's see why (1/n).
🔭🧪🪐 #exoplanet
K2-18b is back in the news, now with a bold claim that biosignature molecules (DMS and/or DMDS) have been 'detected at 3σ'.
Most exoplanet astronomers are extremely sceptical about these claims, let's see why (1/n).
🔭🧪🪐 #exoplanet
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
120 light years from Earth, there's a planet that may be covered in a living ocean. Here's my story on a tantalizing hint of life beyond the Solar System. Gift link: nyti.ms/3GbrEaZ 🧪
Astronomers Detect a Signature of Life on a Distant Planet (Gift Article)
Further studies are needed to determine whether K2-18b, which orbits a star 120 light-years away, is inhabited, or even habitable.
nyti.ms
April 16, 2025 at 11:05 PM
120 light years from Earth, there's a planet that may be covered in a living ocean. Here's my story on a tantalizing hint of life beyond the Solar System. Gift link: nyti.ms/3GbrEaZ 🧪
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Meanwhile on the fiscal side, federal non-interest spending clearly outpacing last year while revenues only up a little.
April 6, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Meanwhile on the fiscal side, federal non-interest spending clearly outpacing last year while revenues only up a little.
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Used car prices *had* been falling. And then Trump announced fat car tariffs. CarGurus data shows almost every brand (with notable exception of Tesla) seeing higher prices on used cars in last 30 days: www.cargurus.com/research/pri...
April 6, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Used car prices *had* been falling. And then Trump announced fat car tariffs. CarGurus data shows almost every brand (with notable exception of Tesla) seeing higher prices on used cars in last 30 days: www.cargurus.com/research/pri...
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
April 3, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
A large majority of the public, 83%, say the president must obey a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court, while 17% say the president has the power to ignore such a ruling. The percentage saying he must obey a ruling has increased slightly from 79% in December to 83% in March.
April 3, 2025 at 11:58 AM
A large majority of the public, 83%, say the president must obey a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court, while 17% say the president has the power to ignore such a ruling. The percentage saying he must obey a ruling has increased slightly from 79% in December to 83% in March.
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Wow this is wild.
James: "The Trump team didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us."
James: "The Trump team didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us."
April 2, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Wow this is wild.
James: "The Trump team didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us."
James: "The Trump team didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us."
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Protecting the collective bargaining rights of workers isn't a partisan issue. We thank Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and all the House Republicans who are urging President Trump to reconsider his executive order eliminating federal workers' collective bargaining rights.
April 2, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Protecting the collective bargaining rights of workers isn't a partisan issue. We thank Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and all the House Republicans who are urging President Trump to reconsider his executive order eliminating federal workers' collective bargaining rights.
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Curtis Yarvin, a close ally of Peter Thiel, recently declared that the system is “irreparable,” that “To capture an elite, you have to demolish its institutions,” & that “Every existing institution of science, outside the scientists & the labs themselves, must be fully cremated…” 1/
Barbarians and mandarins
"As soon as it stops accelerating, it stalls and explodes."
graymirror.substack.com
March 27, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Curtis Yarvin, a close ally of Peter Thiel, recently declared that the system is “irreparable,” that “To capture an elite, you have to demolish its institutions,” & that “Every existing institution of science, outside the scientists & the labs themselves, must be fully cremated…” 1/
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
My recap of this morning's February JOLTS data.
TL;DR: Labor market turnover was decent, with hiring and quits remaining stable… but given what businesses are telling us about their hiring/firing plans, it's hard not to worry about future data.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/jolts-reca...
TL;DR: Labor market turnover was decent, with hiring and quits remaining stable… but given what businesses are telling us about their hiring/firing plans, it's hard not to worry about future data.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/jolts-reca...
April 1, 2025 at 6:40 PM
My recap of this morning's February JOLTS data.
TL;DR: Labor market turnover was decent, with hiring and quits remaining stable… but given what businesses are telling us about their hiring/firing plans, it's hard not to worry about future data.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/jolts-reca...
TL;DR: Labor market turnover was decent, with hiring and quits remaining stable… but given what businesses are telling us about their hiring/firing plans, it's hard not to worry about future data.
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/jolts-reca...
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
More than 100,000 are watching Cory Booker right now live on YouTube alone.
April 1, 2025 at 5:30 PM
More than 100,000 are watching Cory Booker right now live on YouTube alone.
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
With today's consumer spending data, even the Atlanta Fed's "gold-adjusted" model (see thread below for details) has now slipped into negative territory. #EconSky #NumbersDay
March 28, 2025 at 2:36 PM
With today's consumer spending data, even the Atlanta Fed's "gold-adjusted" model (see thread below for details) has now slipped into negative territory. #EconSky #NumbersDay
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Glad that the Atlanta Fed is now showing its "gold-adjusted" measure on its GDP Now chart. Still suggests it will be a very weak quarter (+0.2%), but the sharp contraction in the main model is the result of an anomaly and shouldn't be taken literally. #EconSky
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
March 26, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Glad that the Atlanta Fed is now showing its "gold-adjusted" measure on its GDP Now chart. Still suggests it will be a very weak quarter (+0.2%), but the sharp contraction in the main model is the result of an anomaly and shouldn't be taken literally. #EconSky
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
One of the wildest stories I’ve ever read. Truly a massive problem that indicates deeply improper security procedure (have we forgotten about SCIFs?)
Share far and wide - at minimum, the administration has to re-evaluate their infosec. At maximum, congress needs to investigate ASAP.
Share far and wide - at minimum, the administration has to re-evaluate their infosec. At maximum, congress needs to investigate ASAP.
In 25 years of covering national security, I’ve never seen a story like this: Senior Trump officials discussed planning for the U.S. attack on Yemen in a Signal group--and inadvertently added the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic. www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans
U.S. national-security leaders included me in a group chat about upcoming military strikes in Yemen. I didn’t think it could be real. Then the bombs started falling.
www.theatlantic.com
March 24, 2025 at 5:28 PM
One of the wildest stories I’ve ever read. Truly a massive problem that indicates deeply improper security procedure (have we forgotten about SCIFs?)
Share far and wide - at minimum, the administration has to re-evaluate their infosec. At maximum, congress needs to investigate ASAP.
Share far and wide - at minimum, the administration has to re-evaluate their infosec. At maximum, congress needs to investigate ASAP.
Cracks beginning to show. Demonstrates concern not just among the members stated below, but also likely the strategic levers they utilize (think defense contractor lobbies, think tanks, and the intermediaries from the military itself)
Talk is the first domino. Watch their actions.
Talk is the first domino. Watch their actions.
Wow. Top Republicans warn the Pentagon not to make major force changes without the involvement of Congress. "We are very concerned about reports that claim DOD is considering unilateral changes on major strategic issues"
March 19, 2025 at 11:36 PM
Cracks beginning to show. Demonstrates concern not just among the members stated below, but also likely the strategic levers they utilize (think defense contractor lobbies, think tanks, and the intermediaries from the military itself)
Talk is the first domino. Watch their actions.
Talk is the first domino. Watch their actions.
Great thread from Ashton (Mississippi Free Press) on why the switch from X has been delayed. Many orgs are reliant on SM tool integrations to make the switch given their team’s needs. Looking forward to April!
@mcuban.bsky.social - relevant to your prior post about @sanders.senate.gov’s account
@mcuban.bsky.social - relevant to your prior post about @sanders.senate.gov’s account
That said, some of the bigger social media schedulers *still* don't have Bluesky integration, including Sendible, Sprout Social and Hootsuite.
That may be keeping other news orgs from coming over who are less inclined than we were to use two schedulers.
BUT! Sendible is adding Bluesky in April! 8/
That may be keeping other news orgs from coming over who are less inclined than we were to use two schedulers.
BUT! Sendible is adding Bluesky in April! 8/
What’s Coming to Sendible in Early 2025 | TikTok Reporting is Now Live
Sendible now offers TikTok reporting! Start a 14-day free trial now, as we're getting ready to launch Threads and Bluesky.
www.sendible.com
March 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Great thread from Ashton (Mississippi Free Press) on why the switch from X has been delayed. Many orgs are reliant on SM tool integrations to make the switch given their team’s needs. Looking forward to April!
@mcuban.bsky.social - relevant to your prior post about @sanders.senate.gov’s account
@mcuban.bsky.social - relevant to your prior post about @sanders.senate.gov’s account
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
High propensity business applications for Feb 2025 at 145.3K, up 6466 from prior month. These are business applications with a high-propensity of turning into businesses with payroll, based on the characteristics of the applications. #econsky
March 12, 2025 at 6:38 PM
High propensity business applications for Feb 2025 at 145.3K, up 6466 from prior month. These are business applications with a high-propensity of turning into businesses with payroll, based on the characteristics of the applications. #econsky
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Hourly workers' wage growth decelerating while salaried workers' growth holding higher.
2021-2022 was quite a unique period in that hourly workers enjoyed faster wage growth than salaried workers.
No other time it's happened in last 3 decades.
2021-2022 was quite a unique period in that hourly workers enjoyed faster wage growth than salaried workers.
No other time it's happened in last 3 decades.
March 12, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Hourly workers' wage growth decelerating while salaried workers' growth holding higher.
2021-2022 was quite a unique period in that hourly workers enjoyed faster wage growth than salaried workers.
No other time it's happened in last 3 decades.
2021-2022 was quite a unique period in that hourly workers enjoyed faster wage growth than salaried workers.
No other time it's happened in last 3 decades.
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Solar and wind beat coal in the US for the first time
Solar and wind beat coal in the US for the first time
“Solar is winning.”
buff.ly
March 12, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Solar and wind beat coal in the US for the first time
Trump mentioned this policy on his website during the election, and I was surprised at how little media coverage / analysis it cultivated.
“Freedom cities” is just a rebranding of “network states”, an important element of a modern ideology called Dark Enlightenment.
🧵
“Freedom cities” is just a rebranding of “network states”, an important element of a modern ideology called Dark Enlightenment.
🧵
March 7, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Trump mentioned this policy on his website during the election, and I was surprised at how little media coverage / analysis it cultivated.
“Freedom cities” is just a rebranding of “network states”, an important element of a modern ideology called Dark Enlightenment.
🧵
“Freedom cities” is just a rebranding of “network states”, an important element of a modern ideology called Dark Enlightenment.
🧵
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Lemme be clear: I 100% believe these BLS data on the state of the labor market. If the Administration starts to fiddle with the numbers we'll hear about it because our federal statisticians are smart, apolitical, and committed. If that happens, I'll let you know.
Can we trust any data that comes out of this regime?
March 7, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Lemme be clear: I 100% believe these BLS data on the state of the labor market. If the Administration starts to fiddle with the numbers we'll hear about it because our federal statisticians are smart, apolitical, and committed. If that happens, I'll let you know.
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Second, it is by definition easier to change the trajectory of the global order as a revisionist power than as a status quo power.
But disrupting the status quo is not the same thing as building a stable alternative. Trump will soon learn this is why Russia offers (and China breaks) so little.
2/2
But disrupting the status quo is not the same thing as building a stable alternative. Trump will soon learn this is why Russia offers (and China breaks) so little.
2/2
March 6, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Second, it is by definition easier to change the trajectory of the global order as a revisionist power than as a status quo power.
But disrupting the status quo is not the same thing as building a stable alternative. Trump will soon learn this is why Russia offers (and China breaks) so little.
2/2
But disrupting the status quo is not the same thing as building a stable alternative. Trump will soon learn this is why Russia offers (and China breaks) so little.
2/2
Reposted by Matt Mayeski
Yesterday's reading was 735.64.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD]
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD]
Economic policy uncertainty has only ever been higher during the pandemic, and during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis / Eurozone debt crisis. (And the latest weekly reading is even higher.)
March 4, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Yesterday's reading was 735.64.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD]
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD]