Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
Now: Principal Economist @rooseveltinstitute.org & Roosevelt Forward. Then: @equitablegrowth |@JECDems | @amprog | @RFF | @UCSDecon | @BrookingsEcon.
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Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
· Sep 12
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Welcome to The War on Carbs
Italian Pasta Is Poised to Disappear From American Grocery Shelves
The Trump administration is set to impose duties of 107% on Italian pasta imports, among most punitive of the tariffs it has levied.
www.wsj.com
November 10, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Welcome to The War on Carbs
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
It’s truly a loss today. First time since 1948, the government didn’t collect information on unemployment. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6isk...
Government Shutdown Delays US Jobs Data for Second Month
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
www.youtube.com
November 7, 2025 at 6:31 PM
It’s truly a loss today. First time since 1948, the government didn’t collect information on unemployment. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6isk...
😬
Forgot until just now that this is one of those years when the CPS reference week for November comes early. Is this week. www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
Concepts and Definitions (CPS)
Concepts and Definitions (CPS)
www.bls.gov
November 7, 2025 at 6:28 PM
😬
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
This has interesting ramifications if you think about it - a good case for "the GOP should give in to the Dems and reopen ASAP" is "the economy is probably fine and it'd be good for the administration to have hard data to support that".
A weird shutdown dynamic:
Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful
We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad
Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful
We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad
"greatest economy in the history of the world"
except the opposite
*UMICH PRELIM NOV. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO 50.3; EST. 53
UMICH CURRENT CONDITIONS FALL TO RECORD LOW OF 52.3
except the opposite
*UMICH PRELIM NOV. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO 50.3; EST. 53
UMICH CURRENT CONDITIONS FALL TO RECORD LOW OF 52.3
November 7, 2025 at 5:17 PM
This has interesting ramifications if you think about it - a good case for "the GOP should give in to the Dems and reopen ASAP" is "the economy is probably fine and it'd be good for the administration to have hard data to support that".
This is true & a persistent trend in the economy for basically all of 2025! Nerfing objective stats as an incumbent is bonkers
Negative anecdotes are algorithmically powerful! It takes serious credibility to beat that
How do the 'they're eating the pets' ppl not get this?
Negative anecdotes are algorithmically powerful! It takes serious credibility to beat that
How do the 'they're eating the pets' ppl not get this?
This has interesting ramifications if you think about it - a good case for "the GOP should give in to the Dems and reopen ASAP" is "the economy is probably fine and it'd be good for the administration to have hard data to support that".
A weird shutdown dynamic:
Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful
We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad
Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful
We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad
November 7, 2025 at 6:03 PM
This is true & a persistent trend in the economy for basically all of 2025! Nerfing objective stats as an incumbent is bonkers
Negative anecdotes are algorithmically powerful! It takes serious credibility to beat that
How do the 'they're eating the pets' ppl not get this?
Negative anecdotes are algorithmically powerful! It takes serious credibility to beat that
How do the 'they're eating the pets' ppl not get this?
A weird shutdown dynamic:
Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful
We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad
Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful
We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad
"greatest economy in the history of the world"
except the opposite
*UMICH PRELIM NOV. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO 50.3; EST. 53
UMICH CURRENT CONDITIONS FALL TO RECORD LOW OF 52.3
except the opposite
*UMICH PRELIM NOV. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO 50.3; EST. 53
UMICH CURRENT CONDITIONS FALL TO RECORD LOW OF 52.3
November 7, 2025 at 3:09 PM
A weird shutdown dynamic:
Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful
We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad
Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful
We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
It's a sad #JobsDay
At 8:30 am ET, BLS was scheduled to deliver one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Prior government shutdowns never prevented a month's household data collection. This one has.
#EconSky #NumbersDay #JobsDay
At 8:30 am ET, BLS was scheduled to deliver one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Prior government shutdowns never prevented a month's household data collection. This one has.
#EconSky #NumbersDay #JobsDay
Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
This streak dies tomorrow
Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months
This blind spot will remain forever
Here's the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025.
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
On Tues, it couldn't release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data.
This morning, it couldn't release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data.
Tomorrow, it can't release Oct 2025 #JobsReport
www.bls.gov/schedule/202...
November 7, 2025 at 1:25 PM
It's a sad #JobsDay
At 8:30 am ET, BLS was scheduled to deliver one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Prior government shutdowns never prevented a month's household data collection. This one has.
#EconSky #NumbersDay #JobsDay
At 8:30 am ET, BLS was scheduled to deliver one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Prior government shutdowns never prevented a month's household data collection. This one has.
#EconSky #NumbersDay #JobsDay
Great point on why people feel so bad about a labor market that's pretty OK by top-line numbers.
Macroeconomically, this is also not great! For all the promise of an AI productivty boom, job lock is a known drag on wage and productivty growth, a huge headwind right now
Macroeconomically, this is also not great! For all the promise of an AI productivty boom, job lock is a known drag on wage and productivty growth, a huge headwind right now
Final point: "Low-hire, low-fire" is better than "low-hire, high-fire," obviously. But it still isn't exactly great for workers. It makes it very hard for the unemployed to find jobs. And it leaves the employed with less leverage to demand raises.
November 7, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Great point on why people feel so bad about a labor market that's pretty OK by top-line numbers.
Macroeconomically, this is also not great! For all the promise of an AI productivty boom, job lock is a known drag on wage and productivty growth, a huge headwind right now
Macroeconomically, this is also not great! For all the promise of an AI productivty boom, job lock is a known drag on wage and productivty growth, a huge headwind right now
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
SCOTUS is hearing case against Trump's tariffs. Listen along! I'll offer some thoughts as we go along.
bsky.app/profile/todd...
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
bsky.app/profile/todd...
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
November 5, 2025 at 3:08 PM
SCOTUS is hearing case against Trump's tariffs. Listen along! I'll offer some thoughts as we go along.
bsky.app/profile/todd...
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
bsky.app/profile/todd...
www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
This is just not true. The
Challenger data is not a representative sample of workers and these mostly reflect changes in data collection practices.
The BLS data is a better sample, and layoffs in 2025 have not been high.
Challenger data is not a representative sample of workers and these mostly reflect changes in data collection practices.
The BLS data is a better sample, and layoffs in 2025 have not been high.
November 3, 2025 at 1:07 PM
This is just not true. The
Challenger data is not a representative sample of workers and these mostly reflect changes in data collection practices.
The BLS data is a better sample, and layoffs in 2025 have not been high.
Challenger data is not a representative sample of workers and these mostly reflect changes in data collection practices.
The BLS data is a better sample, and layoffs in 2025 have not been high.
October 30, 2025 at 1:01 PM
My personal read is it’s going to be hard to ease monetary policy, in general, if every short term rate cut comes with a pop in 10 year yields
October 29, 2025 at 6:30 PM
My personal read is it’s going to be hard to ease monetary policy, in general, if every short term rate cut comes with a pop in 10 year yields
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
I was honored to join this important effort opposing the IEEPA tariffs. Huge thanks to @stanveuger.bsky.social for his work on this.
I organized an economist amicus brief in the IEEPA tariffs case the Supreme Court will soon hear.
You can find the full brief here: www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
You can find the full brief here: www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...
October 25, 2025 at 2:01 PM
I was honored to join this important effort opposing the IEEPA tariffs. Huge thanks to @stanveuger.bsky.social for his work on this.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
apparently "polls better in retrospect" applies to more than just former presidents
Microsoft's new Copilot AI character - Mico - is being reported as an evolution of the infamous Clippy
Despite Clippy's reputation for being maligned, Brits who encountered the digital paperclip tend to remember it fondly
Favourable: 38%
Unfavourable: 16%
Neither: 25%
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Despite Clippy's reputation for being maligned, Brits who encountered the digital paperclip tend to remember it fondly
Favourable: 38%
Unfavourable: 16%
Neither: 25%
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
October 24, 2025 at 1:30 PM
apparently "polls better in retrospect" applies to more than just former presidents
The idea that we were getting jobs or inflation data from this month has been pretty tenuous for a while.
Apparently we get 2.5 more hours of BLS press office staffing this am. If we don’t have news by noon ET this is as close to confirmation of data blackout as we’ll get
Apparently we get 2.5 more hours of BLS press office staffing this am. If we don’t have news by noon ET this is as close to confirmation of data blackout as we’ll get
The BLS may not be able to release the next CPI report, which is due in November, because of the shutdown, according to a White House official. That would leave the Fed without a good read on how inflation is evolving ahead of its final meeting of the year in December @tonyromm.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 1:26 PM
The idea that we were getting jobs or inflation data from this month has been pretty tenuous for a while.
Apparently we get 2.5 more hours of BLS press office staffing this am. If we don’t have news by noon ET this is as close to confirmation of data blackout as we’ll get
Apparently we get 2.5 more hours of BLS press office staffing this am. If we don’t have news by noon ET this is as close to confirmation of data blackout as we’ll get
Shoutout to the Gecko for finally coming through on CPI we're back down to 3.1% car insurance inflation!
www.bls.gov/news.release...
www.bls.gov/news.release...
October 24, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Shoutout to the Gecko for finally coming through on CPI we're back down to 3.1% car insurance inflation!
www.bls.gov/news.release...
www.bls.gov/news.release...
I guess the good news is things are pretty boring!
Energy tailwind holding down inflation appears to be over however www.bls.gov/news.release...
Energy tailwind holding down inflation appears to be over however www.bls.gov/news.release...
October 24, 2025 at 12:31 PM
I guess the good news is things are pretty boring!
Energy tailwind holding down inflation appears to be over however www.bls.gov/news.release...
Energy tailwind holding down inflation appears to be over however www.bls.gov/news.release...
V excited to have what I Hope is V boring data about to drop!
October 24, 2025 at 12:30 PM
V excited to have what I Hope is V boring data about to drop!
Very excited to get some @rooseveltinstitute.org tax nerding on this pm!
Looking forward to joining @mikemadowitz.bsky.social and @rooseveltinstitute.org this week to discuss my forthcoming monograph, "How to Tax the Rich." With amazing special guests / commenters Kitty Richards and Greg Leiserson. Watch this space for more book previews!
October 23, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Very excited to get some @rooseveltinstitute.org tax nerding on this pm!
Shaken trees are healthy trees!!!
WSJ confirmed this story today.
They claim this data collaboration has been publicly known since 2018. My sources say it's a different collaboration but I'm willing to believe it's the same. (I talked to former Fed officials who hadn't heard of the collab)
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
They claim this data collaboration has been publicly known since 2018. My sources say it's a different collaboration but I'm willing to believe it's the same. (I talked to former Fed officials who hadn't heard of the collab)
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
October 22, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Shaken trees are healthy trees!!!
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
WSJ confirmed this story today.
They claim this data collaboration has been publicly known since 2018. My sources say it's a different collaboration but I'm willing to believe it's the same. (I talked to former Fed officials who hadn't heard of the collab)
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
They claim this data collaboration has been publicly known since 2018. My sources say it's a different collaboration but I'm willing to believe it's the same. (I talked to former Fed officials who hadn't heard of the collab)
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
October 22, 2025 at 4:52 PM
WSJ confirmed this story today.
They claim this data collaboration has been publicly known since 2018. My sources say it's a different collaboration but I'm willing to believe it's the same. (I talked to former Fed officials who hadn't heard of the collab)
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
They claim this data collaboration has been publicly known since 2018. My sources say it's a different collaboration but I'm willing to believe it's the same. (I talked to former Fed officials who hadn't heard of the collab)
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
We are all Keynesians now
🚨EXCLUSIVE🚨
Many things are changing before our eyes. Others are harder to see
Like the US economy
Americans are spending more 💲 recovering from disasters and preparing for the next one. 36% of US GDP growth since 2000 is related to climate disasters.
Welcome to the Disaster Industrial Complex 🎁🔗
Many things are changing before our eyes. Others are harder to see
Like the US economy
Americans are spending more 💲 recovering from disasters and preparing for the next one. 36% of US GDP growth since 2000 is related to climate disasters.
Welcome to the Disaster Industrial Complex 🎁🔗
Disaster Recovery Is an $8 Trillion Driver of US Growth
Investors are on the hunt for companies powering the disaster industrial complex, which are fueling US growth and outpacing the S&P 500
www.bloomberg.com
October 21, 2025 at 10:49 PM
We are all Keynesians now
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Fed Making Key Economic Decisions Without Key Economic Data - The American Prospect
The Fed considers information from a variety of sources in setting monetary policy, everything from anecdotal reports to original data produced by its regional Reserve Banks. But the loss of public, a...
prospect.org
October 21, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).