Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
Now: Principal Economist @rooseveltinstitute.org & Roosevelt Forward. Then: @equitablegrowth |@JECDems | @amprog | @RFF | @UCSDecon | @BrookingsEcon.
This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
https://rooseveltinstitute.org/authors/michael-madowitz/
This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
https://rooseveltinstitute.org/authors/michael-madowitz/
Pinned
Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
· Sep 12
Refreshed this
Ping if I missed you!
Ping if I missed you!
Big weekend plans are afoot
See you in Philly!!!
Lawrence Summers has been banned for life by the American Economics Association, in a further blow to the former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University president stemming from recent revelations about his ties to the late Jeffrey Epstein.
December 31, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Big weekend plans are afoot
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Family members carry the burden and costs of caring for America's aging population. Federal policy change is slow to come but a new movement and state actions are building momentum. n.pr/4pSCHIa
Policy relief for family caregivers seems stalled out. But there are signs of change
Family members carry the burden and costs of caring for America's aging population. Federal policy change is slow to come but a new movement and state actions are building momentum.
n.pr
December 30, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Family members carry the burden and costs of caring for America's aging population. Federal policy change is slow to come but a new movement and state actions are building momentum. n.pr/4pSCHIa
December 28, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
I would play a game based on this thread.
December 23, 2025 at 2:57 PM
I would play a game based on this thread.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
3.) The negative vibes are *strongest* within middle and high-income households.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
bsky.app/profile/did:...
I hadn't check in on this for a while, but we're back to the strongest declines in economic sentiment being reported by upper- and middle-income households.
December 23, 2025 at 2:54 PM
3.) The negative vibes are *strongest* within middle and high-income households.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
bsky.app/profile/did:...
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
It's defense & state & local
December 23, 2025 at 2:14 PM
It's defense & state & local
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Rule text just appeared at www.federalregister.gov/public-inspe.... It says,"DHS is issuing this final rule as proposed in the NPRM, without modifications to the regulatory text."
December 23, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Rule text just appeared at www.federalregister.gov/public-inspe.... It says,"DHS is issuing this final rule as proposed in the NPRM, without modifications to the regulatory text."
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
New policy: "oh you believe this data?" just gets you blocked.
December 23, 2025 at 2:19 PM
New policy: "oh you believe this data?" just gets you blocked.
DOGE, ye never existed (on an accounting basis)
Interesting to see government spending positive in Q3 after coming in negative in Q1 & Q2. (largely drvien by national defense spending)
December 23, 2025 at 2:10 PM
DOGE, ye never existed (on an accounting basis)
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
It is incredible how unpopular the president is given that the economy remains resilient (despite lots of signs of weakening in the labor market).
If I see one more person spread the "all GDP growth is AI" nonsense....
Avg QoQ ann. % change for GDP in 2025 after three quarters is 2.5%. Avg for consumption is 2.2%.
The idea that AI investment is the source of all growth is just completely wrong.
Avg QoQ ann. % change for GDP in 2025 after three quarters is 2.5%. Avg for consumption is 2.2%.
The idea that AI investment is the source of all growth is just completely wrong.
Big 8:30 data slate
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
December 23, 2025 at 1:41 PM
It is incredible how unpopular the president is given that the economy remains resilient (despite lots of signs of weakening in the labor market).
Federal government with a big positive contribution was not in my forecast at all
Otherwise I co-sign this take
👇
Otherwise I co-sign this take
👇
Imports picking back up again after a crash in Q2 was a headwind but most of that was offset by inventories returning to growth. Nonresidential fixed investment's contribution to growth in Q3 was 0.4%, versus almost 100 bps in Q2 (this is where AI capex spend is). Services consumption surged.
December 23, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Federal government with a big positive contribution was not in my forecast at all
Otherwise I co-sign this take
👇
Otherwise I co-sign this take
👇
Consumers looking strong in q3
Understanding the k-shaped vibes is going to drive us all insane
Understanding the k-shaped vibes is going to drive us all insane
NEW: US Real GDP came in at a 4.3% annualized growth rate in Q3 2025. Consumption & government output increased, investment declined slightly (mostly due to inventory drawdowns), & the trade deficit shrank
Nominal GDP growth (unadjusted for inflation) came in at 8.2% annualized
Nominal GDP growth (unadjusted for inflation) came in at 8.2% annualized
December 23, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Consumers looking strong in q3
Understanding the k-shaped vibes is going to drive us all insane
Understanding the k-shaped vibes is going to drive us all insane
This residential investment number is wild
BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.3% Annualized Rate in Q3
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/bea-...
PCE increased at a 3.5% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The initial Q3 GDP report, with 4.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/bea-...
PCE increased at a 3.5% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The initial Q3 GDP report, with 4.3% annualized increase, was above expectations.
December 23, 2025 at 1:38 PM
This residential investment number is wild
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
If I see one more person spread the "all GDP growth is AI" nonsense....
Avg QoQ ann. % change for GDP in 2025 after three quarters is 2.5%. Avg for consumption is 2.2%.
The idea that AI investment is the source of all growth is just completely wrong.
Avg QoQ ann. % change for GDP in 2025 after three quarters is 2.5%. Avg for consumption is 2.2%.
The idea that AI investment is the source of all growth is just completely wrong.
Big 8:30 data slate
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
December 23, 2025 at 1:32 PM
If I see one more person spread the "all GDP growth is AI" nonsense....
Avg QoQ ann. % change for GDP in 2025 after three quarters is 2.5%. Avg for consumption is 2.2%.
The idea that AI investment is the source of all growth is just completely wrong.
Avg QoQ ann. % change for GDP in 2025 after three quarters is 2.5%. Avg for consumption is 2.2%.
The idea that AI investment is the source of all growth is just completely wrong.
Bit of a pop back up in Q3 pce, but we basically knew that
Q4 will be harder to interpret with missing data
Q4 will be harder to interpret with missing data
December 23, 2025 at 1:36 PM
Bit of a pop back up in Q3 pce, but we basically knew that
Q4 will be harder to interpret with missing data
Q4 will be harder to interpret with missing data
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Big 8:30 data slate
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
December 23, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Big 8:30 data slate
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
Q3 GDP +4.3% QoQ ann. vs +3.3% est.
Consumption +3.5% QoQ ann. vs +2.7% est.
Recall: this is the "second release" but its our first actual look because of the shutdown.
Durable goods data for Oct mixed, miss on headline but core capex beat.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
The 2025 economy in a nutshell: "A gradual deterioration, though, is still a deterioration." www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b...
The Economy Avoided a Recession in 2025, but Many Americans Are Reeling
www.nytimes.com
December 22, 2025 at 7:46 PM
The 2025 economy in a nutshell: "A gradual deterioration, though, is still a deterioration." www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b...
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: After a volatile year, the economy has once again proved more resilient than expected. But that doesn't mean that Americans are feeling good. Unemployment has ticked up and cost-of-living concerns are ever present
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com
The Economy Survived 2025, but Many Americans Are Reeling
www.nytimes.com
December 22, 2025 at 2:12 PM
NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: After a volatile year, the economy has once again proved more resilient than expected. But that doesn't mean that Americans are feeling good. Unemployment has ticked up and cost-of-living concerns are ever present
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
You support waymo because they kill fewer pedestrians than human drivers. I support them because they do trafffic calming. We are not the same
How blackouts in San Francisco this weekend shut down Waymo.
“.. Traffic lights across the city were down, seemingly confusing the driverless cars — and halting them in their tracks.”
@missionlocal.org $GOOGL
missionlocal.org/2025/12/sf-w...
“.. Traffic lights across the city were down, seemingly confusing the driverless cars — and halting them in their tracks.”
@missionlocal.org $GOOGL
missionlocal.org/2025/12/sf-w...
December 21, 2025 at 2:56 PM
You support waymo because they kill fewer pedestrians than human drivers. I support them because they do trafffic calming. We are not the same
This failure to distinguish between the price effects of keep it in the ground vs keep it in the country, on nat gas in particular, is embarrassing and not unique to Matt
Not to get picky, but the marginal impact of any additional oil or LNG exports on import prices through the value of the dollar will be swamped by other factors. Trade flows are swamped by capital flows, and this is a very small share of trade.
First, he’s just messed up the trade economics if he doesn’t think exports have any benefits to Americans broadly — they improve our terms of trade and make imports more affordable. This is not an energy-specific issue but a general point about trade he’s just gotten wrong.
December 21, 2025 at 2:18 PM
This failure to distinguish between the price effects of keep it in the ground vs keep it in the country, on nat gas in particular, is embarrassing and not unique to Matt
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
New report from the American Statistical Association shows massive staffing cuts across the statistical agencies: 20% decline at BLS (which produces jobs & inflation data). 20% decline at BEA (produces GDP). 35% at EIA (oil/gas/electricity data - as Trump makes wild claims about "energy dominance")
December 20, 2025 at 7:02 PM
New report from the American Statistical Association shows massive staffing cuts across the statistical agencies: 20% decline at BLS (which produces jobs & inflation data). 20% decline at BEA (produces GDP). 35% at EIA (oil/gas/electricity data - as Trump makes wild claims about "energy dominance")
Like what?
WH Advisor Hassett: Expect Inflation Numbers To Stay Like This
December 19, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Like what?
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
The fossil fueled insurance crisis is not just a coastal issue! www.mprnews.org/episode/2025...
How climate change is driving up the cost of home insurance
The escalating costs of climate disasters continues to affect home insurance. Jordan Haedtler, climate financial policy strategist with Climate Cabinet based in Duluth, explains the rising cost in hom...
www.mprnews.org
December 19, 2025 at 4:56 PM
The fossil fueled insurance crisis is not just a coastal issue! www.mprnews.org/episode/2025...
Correction:
This reminds me of this summer, when my kids discovered wind up windows and I got to see 🤯 in real time (also, my partner wears pants like this >= weekly [LAUDATORY] )
This reminds me of this summer, when my kids discovered wind up windows and I got to see 🤯 in real time (also, my partner wears pants like this >= weekly [LAUDATORY] )
2/ We’re somewhere between a slowdown and stagflation–not your grandparents’ stagflation (the cars and plaids were way cooler), but 2025 employment & growth are weaker, and prices–especially for energy are up.
December 18, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Correction:
This reminds me of this summer, when my kids discovered wind up windows and I got to see 🤯 in real time (also, my partner wears pants like this >= weekly [LAUDATORY] )
This reminds me of this summer, when my kids discovered wind up windows and I got to see 🤯 in real time (also, my partner wears pants like this >= weekly [LAUDATORY] )