Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
Now: Principal Economist @rooseveltinstitute.org & Roosevelt Forward. Then: @equitablegrowth |@JECDems | @amprog | @RFF | @UCSDecon | @BrookingsEcon.
This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
https://rooseveltinstitute.org/authors/michael-madowitz/
This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
https://rooseveltinstitute.org/authors/michael-madowitz/
Pinned
Mike Madowitz
@mikemadowitz.bsky.social
· Sep 12
Refreshed this
Ping if I missed you!
Ping if I missed you!
Kavanaugh: making businesses show their papers = chaos 🤦
Kavanaugh: The Court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers. But that
process is likely to be a “mess,” as was acknowledged at oral
argument. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
process is likely to be a “mess,” as was acknowledged at oral
argument. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
www.supremecourt.gov
February 20, 2026 at 3:39 PM
Kavanaugh: making businesses show their papers = chaos 🤦
Look, I can't explain this chart, but if you're on <1/2 a tank, I wouldn't drive past too many gas stations today
February 20, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Look, I can't explain this chart, but if you're on <1/2 a tank, I wouldn't drive past too many gas stations today
"THOMAS, J., filed a dissenting opinion. KAVANAUGH, J., filed
a dissenting opinion, in which THOMAS and ALITO, JJ., joined."
Thomas so mad he's dissenting twice?
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
a dissenting opinion, in which THOMAS and ALITO, JJ., joined."
Thomas so mad he's dissenting twice?
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
www.supremecourt.gov
February 20, 2026 at 3:18 PM
"THOMAS, J., filed a dissenting opinion. KAVANAUGH, J., filed
a dissenting opinion, in which THOMAS and ALITO, JJ., joined."
Thomas so mad he's dissenting twice?
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
a dissenting opinion, in which THOMAS and ALITO, JJ., joined."
Thomas so mad he's dissenting twice?
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
Kevin Hassett readies Fox Biz tush push for Powell's Job, Alito's Job, or both
February 20, 2026 at 3:11 PM
Kevin Hassett readies Fox Biz tush push for Powell's Job, Alito's Job, or both
👏consumer 👏 spending 👏 is 👏 STILL 👏 the 👏 economy 👏
Let's say that again, for emphasis: the idea that AI is the only thing holding up the economy is innumerate nonsense, it is very obviously both 1) adding to growth 2) not the only game in town.
February 20, 2026 at 2:32 PM
👏consumer 👏 spending 👏 is 👏 STILL 👏 the 👏 economy 👏
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
The divergence between PCE and CPI measures of core inflation is becoming a bit more clear with Q4 data. Still, both measures have been stubbornly above the Fed's 2% for years. With the labor market appearing to stabilize, Kevin Warsh will likely inherit a cautious, hawkish FOMC.
February 20, 2026 at 2:08 PM
The divergence between PCE and CPI measures of core inflation is becoming a bit more clear with Q4 data. Still, both measures have been stubbornly above the Fed's 2% for years. With the labor market appearing to stabilize, Kevin Warsh will likely inherit a cautious, hawkish FOMC.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
The BEA shutdown impact calculation is basically based on subtracting from government spending the pay furloughed workers would have received. Because those workers received back pay, the 1 pp decline in GDP attributed to the government shutdown will be made up in Q1, so expect a rebound.
February 20, 2026 at 2:10 PM
The BEA shutdown impact calculation is basically based on subtracting from government spending the pay furloughed workers would have received. Because those workers received back pay, the 1 pp decline in GDP attributed to the government shutdown will be made up in Q1, so expect a rebound.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
I was on dad duty this morning so I'm going to do a full thread on the Q4 advance NIPA release but I'll start with an explainer here.
The Truth refers to avg level of output in each quarter of 2025 compared to the same for 2024, while the NYT refers to the change in Q4's output vs Q3, annualized.
The Truth refers to avg level of output in each quarter of 2025 compared to the same for 2024, while the NYT refers to the change in Q4's output vs Q3, annualized.
February 20, 2026 at 2:01 PM
I was on dad duty this morning so I'm going to do a full thread on the Q4 advance NIPA release but I'll start with an explainer here.
The Truth refers to avg level of output in each quarter of 2025 compared to the same for 2024, while the NYT refers to the change in Q4's output vs Q3, annualized.
The Truth refers to avg level of output in each quarter of 2025 compared to the same for 2024, while the NYT refers to the change in Q4's output vs Q3, annualized.
If you wanted to convince me SAAS is getting hit enough to show up in national accounts, these last 2 quarters are how you'd do it--IDK what I'm doing here, to be clear, but we're way below usual IP growth in GDP for 2025H2
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Seic
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Seic
Real gross domestic product: Gross private domestic investment: Fixed investment: Nonresidential: Intellectual property products: Software
Real gross domestic product: Gross private domestic investment: Fixed investment: Nonresidential: Intellectual property products: Software
fred.stlouisfed.org
February 20, 2026 at 2:05 PM
If you wanted to convince me SAAS is getting hit enough to show up in national accounts, these last 2 quarters are how you'd do it--IDK what I'm doing here, to be clear, but we're way below usual IP growth in GDP for 2025H2
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Seic
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Seic
I am so confused I might join TruthSocial to see WTF this even means
February 20, 2026 at 1:59 PM
I am so confused I might join TruthSocial to see WTF this even means
FWIW this Goldman Sachs forecast seemed bold but
1) they nailed it
2) rereading the details, they mostly nailed these
3) This is what peak RTFM performance looks like
1) they nailed it
2) rereading the details, they mostly nailed these
3) This is what peak RTFM performance looks like
👀
Q4 GDP first look Friday... GS thinks just +1.6% vs +3.0% consensus
December Core PCE inflation 2.97% YoY, with December Core PCE Price Index +0.36%
December Core PCE inflation 2.97% YoY, with December Core PCE Price Index +0.36%
February 20, 2026 at 1:57 PM
FWIW this Goldman Sachs forecast seemed bold but
1) they nailed it
2) rereading the details, they mostly nailed these
3) This is what peak RTFM performance looks like
1) they nailed it
2) rereading the details, they mostly nailed these
3) This is what peak RTFM performance looks like
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
which is why the gov spending is so negative in this quarter?
February 20, 2026 at 1:50 PM
which is why the gov spending is so negative in this quarter?
One bit of 'good' news--government was quite negative in Q4, but that's
1) largely explained by booking the dodge cuts
2) hard to measure, so this is a more mechanical decline (we are paying fewer people) than if we saw something similar in pvt investment
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
1) largely explained by booking the dodge cuts
2) hard to measure, so this is a more mechanical decline (we are paying fewer people) than if we saw something similar in pvt investment
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
February 20, 2026 at 1:50 PM
One bit of 'good' news--government was quite negative in Q4, but that's
1) largely explained by booking the dodge cuts
2) hard to measure, so this is a more mechanical decline (we are paying fewer people) than if we saw something similar in pvt investment
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
1) largely explained by booking the dodge cuts
2) hard to measure, so this is a more mechanical decline (we are paying fewer people) than if we saw something similar in pvt investment
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
Just tacking on here--really unusual for GDP deflator to split as strongly from PCE as it has in the last 2 quarters--I didn't see it coming because I never look for that (and PPI wasn't this crazy in Q4)
The headline PCE index was also +0.36% in December (4.4% annualized rate), pushing 12-montn inflation to 2.9%, the highest reading for this series in more than a year.
It had been 2.3% in April.
It had been 2.3% in April.
February 20, 2026 at 1:47 PM
Just tacking on here--really unusual for GDP deflator to split as strongly from PCE as it has in the last 2 quarters--I didn't see it coming because I never look for that (and PPI wasn't this crazy in Q4)
The best spin I have for this is the GDP deflator > PCE inflation story fits well with a data center surge amid capacity constraints.
So with today's GDP we're maybe back to the AI Solow paradox?
-These are not investment growth numbers that scream build-out boom
-The topline is pretty rough for the already dodgy Kevin Warsh productivity boom story)
Full release
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
-These are not investment growth numbers that scream build-out boom
-The topline is pretty rough for the already dodgy Kevin Warsh productivity boom story)
Full release
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
February 20, 2026 at 1:38 PM
The best spin I have for this is the GDP deflator > PCE inflation story fits well with a data center surge amid capacity constraints.
So with today's GDP we're maybe back to the AI Solow paradox?
-These are not investment growth numbers that scream build-out boom
-The topline is pretty rough for the already dodgy Kevin Warsh productivity boom story)
Full release
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
-These are not investment growth numbers that scream build-out boom
-The topline is pretty rough for the already dodgy Kevin Warsh productivity boom story)
Full release
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
February 20, 2026 at 1:34 PM
So with today's GDP we're maybe back to the AI Solow paradox?
-These are not investment growth numbers that scream build-out boom
-The topline is pretty rough for the already dodgy Kevin Warsh productivity boom story)
Full release
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
-These are not investment growth numbers that scream build-out boom
-The topline is pretty rough for the already dodgy Kevin Warsh productivity boom story)
Full release
www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...
February 20, 2026 at 1:31 PM
Happy #NumbersDay
GDP forecasts are pretty wide, centered in the high 2s.
Also, even though it's mid/late Feb, this is the Q4 advanced estimate, so no corp profits data
GDP forecasts are pretty wide, centered in the high 2s.
Also, even though it's mid/late Feb, this is the Q4 advanced estimate, so no corp profits data
February 20, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Happy #NumbersDay
GDP forecasts are pretty wide, centered in the high 2s.
Also, even though it's mid/late Feb, this is the Q4 advanced estimate, so no corp profits data
GDP forecasts are pretty wide, centered in the high 2s.
Also, even though it's mid/late Feb, this is the Q4 advanced estimate, so no corp profits data
Kevin Warsh for fed chair, but we’re keeping The Cubic Model
If he's willing to direct the Fed funds rate to go after this target, then, in the immortal words, I say: "Go ahead, make my day"
DONALD TRUMP SAYS "WE WANT 1% INFLATION — AND WE’RE GOING TO GET IT A LITTLE LOWER," INDICATING A GOAL TO KEEP INFLATION NEARLY AT 1% AND TRYING TO LOW
February 19, 2026 at 12:05 AM
Kevin Warsh for fed chair, but we’re keeping The Cubic Model
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
In his Black History Month remarks, Trump provides a perfect example of what not to say in a way that belongs in an HR anti-harassment video.
“I love Nicki Minaj. She was here a couple of weeks ago. She’s so beautiful, her skin’s so beautiful. I said, ‘Nicki, you’re so beautiful.’” —Trump
February 18, 2026 at 9:16 PM
In his Black History Month remarks, Trump provides a perfect example of what not to say in a way that belongs in an HR anti-harassment video.
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Check out ‘Voices Carry’: Professor Brian Galle (@bdgesq.bsky.social) on Taxing the Ultrarich, in California and at the Federal Level www.law.berkeley.edu/article/prof... Host @gwyneth.bsky.social #CABillionaireTax
Professor Brian Galle on taxing the ultrarich
He just published a book outlining a plan for fairer taxation at the federal level and is involved with an effort to put a billionaire tax on the ballot in California.
www.law.berkeley.edu
February 18, 2026 at 7:28 PM
Check out ‘Voices Carry’: Professor Brian Galle (@bdgesq.bsky.social) on Taxing the Ultrarich, in California and at the Federal Level www.law.berkeley.edu/article/prof... Host @gwyneth.bsky.social #CABillionaireTax
Reposted by Mike Madowitz
Current NASI panel: "Paid Leave: Unfinished Business From the New Deal." On why paid medical and maternity leave, though drafted, did not make it into the Social Security Act. And the consequences of that omission.
February 18, 2026 at 6:24 PM
Current NASI panel: "Paid Leave: Unfinished Business From the New Deal." On why paid medical and maternity leave, though drafted, did not make it into the Social Security Act. And the consequences of that omission.
February 18, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Over the last 10 federal elections this would steer you wrong 80-90% of the time (2012 edge case)
Ceding politics to a mediocre Event Study Mafia is as dumb as ceding to ideological purity tests
Ceding politics to a mediocre Event Study Mafia is as dumb as ceding to ideological purity tests
February 17, 2026 at 5:32 PM
Over the last 10 federal elections this would steer you wrong 80-90% of the time (2012 edge case)
Ceding politics to a mediocre Event Study Mafia is as dumb as ceding to ideological purity tests
Ceding politics to a mediocre Event Study Mafia is as dumb as ceding to ideological purity tests