Courtney Shupert
@courtneyshupert.bsky.social
Economist @ macropolicyperspectives.com, OKC Thunder Fan, dog mom, musician, Presbyterian
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Reposted by Courtney Shupert
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
THREAD: Judge Ellis is the first federal judge to review extensive body cam video of DHS's actions in Chicago. She finds that DHS *repeatedly* misled the public and made claims that were disproven by agents' own videos.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
![II. Credibility
The Court next addresses the credibility of the parties’ evidence and witnesses. After reviewing all the evidence submitted to the Court and listening to the testimony elicited at the preliminary injunction hearing, during depositions, and in other court proceedings, the Court finds Defendants’ evidence simply not credible. [FN 6]
Plaintiffs submitted a mountain of evidence, providing the Court with over eighty declarations, numerous videos and articles, and other evidence. Defendants did not rebut anything that Plaintiffs set forth in their declarations or testimony, even with BWC footage.
[FN 6] In another case considering some of the same evidence presented to this Court, another court in this district also found that the perceptions of certain of Defendants’ declarants, such as Hott and Parra, were not reliable. See Illinois v. Trump, No. 25-cv-12174, 2025 WL 2886645, at *5 (N.D. Ill. Oct. 10, 2025) (noting a “troubling trend of Defendants’ declarants equating protests with riots and a lack of appreciation for the wide spectrum that exists between citizens who are observing, questioning, and criticizing their government, and those who are obstructing, assaulting, or doing violence”), motion to stay denied in part, 155 F.4th 929 (7th Cir. 2025).](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2vtbmhmrwzbqcfv4we4uxzzt/bafkreifpyry2il5toxbr3iejgrsxs6kmnwve75qwnhebfp44ieyjrfpsdu@jpeg)
November 20, 2025 at 11:04 PM
THREAD: Judge Ellis is the first federal judge to review extensive body cam video of DHS's actions in Chicago. She finds that DHS *repeatedly* misled the public and made claims that were disproven by agents' own videos.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
I'll go through some of the most egregious ones here.
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
New international student enrolment drops 17% at US universities.
Foreign students make up about 6% of total US enrollment and contributed $55bn (£41bn) to the economy, according to 2024 figures from the commerce department.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
Foreign students make up about 6% of total US enrollment and contributed $55bn (£41bn) to the economy, according to 2024 figures from the commerce department.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
New international student enrolment drops 17% at US universities
A survey of more than 800 US universities and colleges suggest visa delays and denials were among the top issues behind the decline.
www.yahoo.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:37 PM
New international student enrolment drops 17% at US universities.
Foreign students make up about 6% of total US enrollment and contributed $55bn (£41bn) to the economy, according to 2024 figures from the commerce department.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
Foreign students make up about 6% of total US enrollment and contributed $55bn (£41bn) to the economy, according to 2024 figures from the commerce department.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
Pretty well established finding that immigration raids of workplaces reduce student test performance for nearby schools, including for non-vulnerable students. The general DHS surge appears to be doing the same for student performance. www.nber.org/papers/w34452
November 22, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Pretty well established finding that immigration raids of workplaces reduce student test performance for nearby schools, including for non-vulnerable students. The general DHS surge appears to be doing the same for student performance. www.nber.org/papers/w34452
Always great to chat with @npr.org and hear Marketplace's #jobsday coverage. I enjoyed discussing response rates, revisions and what we learned about the labor market in September.
www.marketplace.org/episode/2025...
www.marketplace.org/episode/2025...
The long-awaited September jobs report arrives
The September jobs report is finally here. Plus: America’s brand image and food service jobs.
www.marketplace.org
November 21, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Always great to chat with @npr.org and hear Marketplace's #jobsday coverage. I enjoyed discussing response rates, revisions and what we learned about the labor market in September.
www.marketplace.org/episode/2025...
www.marketplace.org/episode/2025...
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
Hey, #EconSky!
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is here @usbls.bsky.social!
bsky.app/profile/usbl...
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is here @usbls.bsky.social!
bsky.app/profile/usbl...
November 21, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Hey, #EconSky!
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is here @usbls.bsky.social!
bsky.app/profile/usbl...
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is here @usbls.bsky.social!
bsky.app/profile/usbl...
This is propaganda and the fact it is associated with the economics profession is abhorrent. BLS is staffed by dedicated public servants who only report the data, whoever is running the DOL Twitter account is something else entirely.
I take it there are no economists working at the Department of Labor...
November 21, 2025 at 2:09 PM
This is propaganda and the fact it is associated with the economics profession is abhorrent. BLS is staffed by dedicated public servants who only report the data, whoever is running the DOL Twitter account is something else entirely.
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
November 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
Yes! Quite a jump in response rates, this is the highest response rate for first estimates in about 6 years (since late 2019)
November 20, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Yes! Quite a jump in response rates, this is the highest response rate for first estimates in about 6 years (since late 2019)
The December decision is between a hawkish cut or a dovish pause. But risk management matters for the FOMC. 4.44% is above the FOMC's long-run estimate of 4.2% and the unemployment rate keeps ticking up. The average m/m change in the unemployment rate is +0.11pp/month over the last three months.
Powell and Waller are likely going to assume the unemployment rate as of November is at 4.5% or higher given that September was at 4.44%. The question is whether they try to persuade their more cautious colleagues and are successful.
November 20, 2025 at 3:45 PM
The December decision is between a hawkish cut or a dovish pause. But risk management matters for the FOMC. 4.44% is above the FOMC's long-run estimate of 4.2% and the unemployment rate keeps ticking up. The average m/m change in the unemployment rate is +0.11pp/month over the last three months.
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
November 20, 2025 at 2:00 PM
The labor market is not falling off a cliff, but it is loosening. With an unemployment rate at 4.44% and rising we think the Fed moves ahead with a third risk management rate cut in December to get policy closer to neutral
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
The USDA sent an email to grocery stores telling them they are prohibited from offering special discounts to customers affected by the SNAP funding lapse.
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
November 2, 2025 at 7:01 PM
The USDA sent an email to grocery stores telling them they are prohibited from offering special discounts to customers affected by the SNAP funding lapse.
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
Great piece from @shadib.bsky.social and @minnpost.bsky.social! "Government data is really the gold standard for inflation and it’s needed for markets to function,” said Courtney Shupert, economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives.
www.minnpost.com/economy/2025...
www.minnpost.com/economy/2025...
Filling data gaps as government shutdown halts economic reports - MinnPost
Some data on consumption, production and hiring can be estimated using private sources, but inflation remains a blind spot.
www.minnpost.com
October 24, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Great piece from @shadib.bsky.social and @minnpost.bsky.social! "Government data is really the gold standard for inflation and it’s needed for markets to function,” said Courtney Shupert, economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives.
www.minnpost.com/economy/2025...
www.minnpost.com/economy/2025...
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Fed Making Key Economic Decisions Without Key Economic Data - The American Prospect
The Fed considers information from a variety of sources in setting monetary policy, everything from anecdotal reports to original data produced by its regional Reserve Banks. But the loss of public, a...
prospect.org
October 21, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
“We found over 35 cases in which the judges have specifically said what the government is providing…false information. It might be intentionally false information, including false sworn declarations time and again," says Ryan Goodman, law professor at New York University.
October 19, 2025 at 11:43 PM
“We found over 35 cases in which the judges have specifically said what the government is providing…false information. It might be intentionally false information, including false sworn declarations time and again," says Ryan Goodman, law professor at New York University.
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
October 20, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
Hi, I'm the ProPublica reporter who's been tracking an unusual stat: U.S. citizens grabbed by immigration agents.
I did it because the government isn’t.
This is what I found.
I did it because the government isn’t.
This is what I found.
October 18, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Hi, I'm the ProPublica reporter who's been tracking an unusual stat: U.S. citizens grabbed by immigration agents.
I did it because the government isn’t.
This is what I found.
I did it because the government isn’t.
This is what I found.
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
New federal data has revealed a 19% year-on-year decline in international students entering the US in August 2025, including a 45% drop from India, America’s largest sending country. thepienews.com/internationa...
International student arrivals to the US fall by 19%
The US recorded a 20% drop in student visa arrivals this August, though the full picture remains unclear amid contradictory datasets.
thepienews.com
October 18, 2025 at 1:17 PM
New federal data has revealed a 19% year-on-year decline in international students entering the US in August 2025, including a 45% drop from India, America’s largest sending country. thepienews.com/internationa...
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
Great piece on academic shero labor economist Claudua Goldin picking WNBA advising as a post-Nobel venture. She estimates players should earn 1/3 of what NBA men earn
(It’s currently 1/80)
(It’s currently 1/80)
Spent a bit of time at the WNBA All-Star Game chatting with a new basketball fan: Harvard economist Claudia Goldin, who has been advising the WNBA players in their labor negotiations, part of a more robust strategy this year from the union
In Search of Equity, WNBA Players Have a Nobel Laureate on Their Side
Harvard economist Claudia Goldin, who focuses on the role of women in the American economy, has been advising the WNBPA in its CBA negotiations.
www.si.com
October 18, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Great piece on academic shero labor economist Claudua Goldin picking WNBA advising as a post-Nobel venture. She estimates players should earn 1/3 of what NBA men earn
(It’s currently 1/80)
(It’s currently 1/80)
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
On #NoKings Day I present the Dept of Education spending for fiscal year 2025--a more than $230 *BILLION* dollar cut in spending totally unauthorized by Congress in just eight months
October 18, 2025 at 11:03 AM
On #NoKings Day I present the Dept of Education spending for fiscal year 2025--a more than $230 *BILLION* dollar cut in spending totally unauthorized by Congress in just eight months
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
“.. It’s to the point now where .. I could lose everything ... Being a small business owner isn’t worth it when your country turns on you,” said Jared Hendricks, the CEO of Village Lighting, a small business selling Christmas products.
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/h...
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/h...
October 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM
“.. It’s to the point now where .. I could lose everything ... Being a small business owner isn’t worth it when your country turns on you,” said Jared Hendricks, the CEO of Village Lighting, a small business selling Christmas products.
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/h...
@cnbc.com
www.cnbc.com/2025/10/17/h...
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
Three senior Republican appropriators agree it doesn't make any sense for Democrats to agree to a government funding deal unless Trump actually adheres to the deal.
The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.
The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.
October 15, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Three senior Republican appropriators agree it doesn't make any sense for Democrats to agree to a government funding deal unless Trump actually adheres to the deal.
The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.
The Democratic alternative CR has language that would begin to address this, but Trump and Vought are completely opposed.
Reposted by Courtney Shupert
@albertocavallo.bsky.social's website is worth bookmarking
October 15, 2025 at 1:55 PM
@albertocavallo.bsky.social's website is worth bookmarking
Very insightful session at NABE’s annual meeting on the “termites” eroding the value of the USD. H/t to @jc-econ.bsky.social for moderating an amazing discussion with Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, and Carmen Reinhart @nabe-econ.bsky.social
#NABE #econsky #finsky
#NABE #econsky #finsky
October 13, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Very insightful session at NABE’s annual meeting on the “termites” eroding the value of the USD. H/t to @jc-econ.bsky.social for moderating an amazing discussion with Catherine Mann, Lael Brainard, and Carmen Reinhart @nabe-econ.bsky.social
#NABE #econsky #finsky
#NABE #econsky #finsky