Michael Caley
@michaelcaley.bsky.social
I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.
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Expecting Goals Premier League Team Ratings
A new method for evaluating soccer teams in the major European Leagues, and an opportunity to discover whether I am biased against your favorite team or not.
www.expectinggoals.com
a new Expecting Goals newsletter!
a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next
www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...
a brand new team ratings system, Premier League power rankings, and all the details about how it works, why it works this way, and what I plan to do with it next
www.expectinggoals.com/p/expecting-...
Reposted by Michael Caley
you can either regulate, add subsidies, and/or expand public insurance programs, or:
The new Republican plan same as the old Republican plan: Fucking die already.
Rick Scott told me his plan would be to take all of the remaining ACA subsidies and redistribute them to HSA accounts and people can then buy whatever insurance a state certifies. Basically a repeal/replace.
He denied when I asked wouldn’t that create two-tiered system where sick pay much more…
He denied when I asked wouldn’t that create two-tiered system where sick pay much more…
November 11, 2025 at 12:37 PM
you can either regulate, add subsidies, and/or expand public insurance programs, or:
the hemp loophole allows more or less unregulated sale of products with a ridiculous amount of THC in them, it's bad law obviously written by mistake, and it's broadly a good thing it's being closed
the problem is everything else really
the problem is everything else really
November 11, 2025 at 2:57 AM
the hemp loophole allows more or less unregulated sale of products with a ridiculous amount of THC in them, it's bad law obviously written by mistake, and it's broadly a good thing it's being closed
the problem is everything else really
the problem is everything else really
Reposted by Michael Caley
Listen I agree pot should be legal but also it is objectively insane that I can buy this at the grocery store next to the lettuce.
November 11, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Listen I agree pot should be legal but also it is objectively insane that I can buy this at the grocery store next to the lettuce.
this theory also helps explain why so many moderate Dem pundits are just as pissed at the Senate as progressives are
they may have different ideological alignments but they understand the stakes and the politics here in ways the Senators don't
they may have different ideological alignments but they understand the stakes and the politics here in ways the Senators don't
I feel like we're in a weird world where the average Dem partisan, engaged voter is better informed than most of their representatives
seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous
November 10, 2025 at 9:42 PM
this theory also helps explain why so many moderate Dem pundits are just as pissed at the Senate as progressives are
they may have different ideological alignments but they understand the stakes and the politics here in ways the Senators don't
they may have different ideological alignments but they understand the stakes and the politics here in ways the Senators don't
Reposted by Michael Caley
The Democratic Party needs to change. Here in Brooklyn we've been organizing for years to kick out the old machine and transform the local party into the grassroots powerhouse it should be.
2026 could be the year we finally do it! But we'll need your help!
Sign up for updates and become a member:
2026 could be the year we finally do it! But we'll need your help!
Sign up for updates and become a member:
New Kings Democrats
Learn about New Kings Democrats, a progressive, grassroots political organization committed to bringing transparency, accountability, and inclusionary democracy to the Kings County Democratic Party. w...
www.newkingsdemocrats.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:45 PM
The Democratic Party needs to change. Here in Brooklyn we've been organizing for years to kick out the old machine and transform the local party into the grassroots powerhouse it should be.
2026 could be the year we finally do it! But we'll need your help!
Sign up for updates and become a member:
2026 could be the year we finally do it! But we'll need your help!
Sign up for updates and become a member:
Reposted by Michael Caley
This is pretty wild, Turkey basically just nuked the lower levels of its football pyramid because everyone involved, from the players to the refs to club executives, were betting on matches www.reuters.com/sports/socce...
www.reuters.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:16 PM
This is pretty wild, Turkey basically just nuked the lower levels of its football pyramid because everyone involved, from the players to the refs to club executives, were betting on matches www.reuters.com/sports/socce...
Reposted by Michael Caley
“This thing is definitely bad for us but no one can say what it is”
The evidence that ultra-processed foods are bad for us is piling up. But efforts to reduce their role in our diets face a big hurdle: experts can't agree on what they are and which to target. n.pr/4qMrN7P
People want to avoid ultra-processed foods. But experts struggle to define them
The evidence that ultra-processed foods are bad for us is piling up. But efforts to reduce their role in our diets face a big hurdle: experts can't agree on what they are and which to target.
n.pr
November 10, 2025 at 7:52 PM
“This thing is definitely bad for us but no one can say what it is”
Reposted by Michael Caley
I love this website.
November 10, 2025 at 6:33 PM
I love this website.
Reposted by Michael Caley
“We're seeing a level of proliferation of bodies & body piles from space that's unlike anything I've ever seen…”
Human rights investigator Nathaniel Raymond explains how more people could be killed within a week in Sudan, compared to the past two years in Gaza.
🔗 zeteo.com/p/sudans-dea...
Human rights investigator Nathaniel Raymond explains how more people could be killed within a week in Sudan, compared to the past two years in Gaza.
🔗 zeteo.com/p/sudans-dea...
November 9, 2025 at 4:00 PM
“We're seeing a level of proliferation of bodies & body piles from space that's unlike anything I've ever seen…”
Human rights investigator Nathaniel Raymond explains how more people could be killed within a week in Sudan, compared to the past two years in Gaza.
🔗 zeteo.com/p/sudans-dea...
Human rights investigator Nathaniel Raymond explains how more people could be killed within a week in Sudan, compared to the past two years in Gaza.
🔗 zeteo.com/p/sudans-dea...
there is something terminally bsky-brained about the idea that there are voters out there making decisions based on caucus strategy
this is bad because it's failing to maximize Democratic advantages and forcing Republicans to face public pressure, it's a second-order thing
this is bad because it's failing to maximize Democratic advantages and forcing Republicans to face public pressure, it's a second-order thing
I’m mad at the Dems caving as well but I really don’t think they’re going to pay the dude consequences that everyone’s predicting, like this one. You can just be mad without claiming that people will hold them responsible for healthcare getting more expensive.
So when healthcare premiums skyrocket next year it will be blamed on the Dems
Jesus. How incredibly stupid
Jesus. How incredibly stupid
November 10, 2025 at 2:16 PM
there is something terminally bsky-brained about the idea that there are voters out there making decisions based on caucus strategy
this is bad because it's failing to maximize Democratic advantages and forcing Republicans to face public pressure, it's a second-order thing
this is bad because it's failing to maximize Democratic advantages and forcing Republicans to face public pressure, it's a second-order thing
Reposted by Michael Caley
"but I am le tired" ass caucus
weirdly honest messaging from the breakaway mod/institutionalist leaders who blew up the party strategy
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
November 10, 2025 at 2:01 PM
"but I am le tired" ass caucus
good Klein piece on the contradictions of the Democratic shutdown position that fed into yesterday's idiotic cave
the "shutdown for ACA credits" was a chimera position that served to unify the conference (good!) but wasn't the actual position of either libs or mods www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
the "shutdown for ACA credits" was a chimera position that served to unify the conference (good!) but wasn't the actual position of either libs or mods www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
Opinion | Democrats Were on a Roll. Why Stop Now?
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 1:33 PM
good Klein piece on the contradictions of the Democratic shutdown position that fed into yesterday's idiotic cave
the "shutdown for ACA credits" was a chimera position that served to unify the conference (good!) but wasn't the actual position of either libs or mods www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
the "shutdown for ACA credits" was a chimera position that served to unify the conference (good!) but wasn't the actual position of either libs or mods www.nytimes.com/2025/11/10/o...
Reposted by Michael Caley
Pov: you are a private equity firm investing in football:
November 10, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Pov: you are a private equity firm investing in football:
weirdly honest messaging from the breakaway mod/institutionalist leaders who blew up the party strategy
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
November 10, 2025 at 12:34 PM
weirdly honest messaging from the breakaway mod/institutionalist leaders who blew up the party strategy
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
people start talking themselves into European soccer teams as good investment opportunities is never a good sign for the state of a business
*APOLLO BUYS 55% OF ATLETICO MADRID, EXPANSION SAYS
November 10, 2025 at 12:27 PM
people start talking themselves into European soccer teams as good investment opportunities is never a good sign for the state of a business
seems very clear there's a specific breakaway group of mods and, in particular, institutionalists trying to force the Senate conference to break or bend
Slotkin and Gallego both nos at least going into the meeting because they're not part of the breakaway group
Slotkin and Gallego both nos at least going into the meeting because they're not part of the breakaway group
November 9, 2025 at 11:10 PM
seems very clear there's a specific breakaway group of mods and, in particular, institutionalists trying to force the Senate conference to break or bend
Slotkin and Gallego both nos at least going into the meeting because they're not part of the breakaway group
Slotkin and Gallego both nos at least going into the meeting because they're not part of the breakaway group
the article here doesn't actually report that any agreement has been reached on anything related to the ACA or HSAs -- "appeared" is extremely load bearing in this sentence
in the reported deal there is no agreement on ACA subsidies anyhow, just an empty promise to hold a vote
in the reported deal there is no agreement on ACA subsidies anyhow, just an empty promise to hold a vote
"A development that appeared to break the logjam: Republicans proposed that healthcare funding be provided directly to households rather than used to pay for a 1-year extension of ACA subsidies. That involves sending federal money into FSAs instead of insurance companies" www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Republicans Pitch Alternative to ACA Extension to End Government Shutdown
A proposal by GOP senators to send money directly to consumers’ health accounts rather than to insurance companies showed signs of breaking a stalemate on negotiations.
www.wsj.com
November 9, 2025 at 10:17 PM
the article here doesn't actually report that any agreement has been reached on anything related to the ACA or HSAs -- "appeared" is extremely load bearing in this sentence
in the reported deal there is no agreement on ACA subsidies anyhow, just an empty promise to hold a vote
in the reported deal there is no agreement on ACA subsidies anyhow, just an empty promise to hold a vote
Reposted by Michael Caley
Sounds like the squishes in the senate caucus are ready to pull the plug with no ACA changes. This is real. If you want to register your opinion you shld call yr senator in the next hour. They not only want to reopen w/nothing. They want cover from their colleagues who still want to hold out.
November 9, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Sounds like the squishes in the senate caucus are ready to pull the plug with no ACA changes. This is real. If you want to register your opinion you shld call yr senator in the next hour. They not only want to reopen w/nothing. They want cover from their colleagues who still want to hold out.
this is a real "legalized gambling is bad for sports" story but don't sell short the degree to which it's also an "Emmanuel Clase is a world-historical dumbass" story
Breaking News: Two MLB pitchers, Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz of the Cleveland Guardians, were charged with sharing inside information about their pitches with sports bettors.
2 MLB Pitchers Are Charged in Gambling Investigation
Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz, pitchers for the Cleveland Guardians, were charged with sharing inside information about their pitches with bettors. Mr. Ortiz was arrested Sunday.
nyti.ms
November 9, 2025 at 8:57 PM
this is a real "legalized gambling is bad for sports" story but don't sell short the degree to which it's also an "Emmanuel Clase is a world-historical dumbass" story
the whole question with the shutdown was what the Senate conference had the stomach for
and they had the stomach for a lot more than I expected
but still, not like, a lot
and they had the stomach for a lot more than I expected
but still, not like, a lot
From what I have seen so far this does not seem like a good deal:
November 9, 2025 at 7:57 PM
the whole question with the shutdown was what the Senate conference had the stomach for
and they had the stomach for a lot more than I expected
but still, not like, a lot
and they had the stomach for a lot more than I expected
but still, not like, a lot
folks are gonna make way way more of this game than was there
City finished their chances exceptionally well
City finished their chances exceptionally well
November 9, 2025 at 6:03 PM
folks are gonna make way way more of this game than was there
City finished their chances exceptionally well
City finished their chances exceptionally well
another one for the "if you can consistently create space for yourself on the dribble in attacking areas, the end product should come"
November 9, 2025 at 5:58 PM
another one for the "if you can consistently create space for yourself on the dribble in attacking areas, the end product should come"
Reposted by Michael Caley
The automated problem factory!
‘A new service called Objector is offering “policy-backed objections in minutes” to people who are upset about planning applications near their homes.’
Another reminder that AI can be used for things you don’t like as well as things you like…
Another reminder that AI can be used for things you don’t like as well as things you like…
Bloody hell www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
November 9, 2025 at 4:26 PM
The automated problem factory!
some ludicrous parity going on in the Premier League table rn
November 9, 2025 at 3:58 PM
some ludicrous parity going on in the Premier League table rn
Reposted by Michael Caley
The Premier League is now 5 seconds of open play then 30 seconds of prepping for a set piece.
We can fix this with rule changes:
- Teams only get four set pieces per possession
- If the set pieces are bad, the other team gets the ball
- If they're good, they get four more
- Let's call them "downs"
We can fix this with rule changes:
- Teams only get four set pieces per possession
- If the set pieces are bad, the other team gets the ball
- If they're good, they get four more
- Let's call them "downs"
November 9, 2025 at 2:45 PM
The Premier League is now 5 seconds of open play then 30 seconds of prepping for a set piece.
We can fix this with rule changes:
- Teams only get four set pieces per possession
- If the set pieces are bad, the other team gets the ball
- If they're good, they get four more
- Let's call them "downs"
We can fix this with rule changes:
- Teams only get four set pieces per possession
- If the set pieces are bad, the other team gets the ball
- If they're good, they get four more
- Let's call them "downs"