Michael Caley
@michaelcaley.bsky.social
I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.
broadly, what I think this shows is a party insufficiently committed to *politics* such that it can't act in the party's interests to hold a winning line if the line isn't also their deeply-held opinion
November 10, 2025 at 1:37 PM
broadly, what I think this shows is a party insufficiently committed to *politics* such that it can't act in the party's interests to hold a winning line if the line isn't also their deeply-held opinion
weirdly honest messaging from the breakaway mod/institutionalist leaders who blew up the party strategy
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
November 10, 2025 at 12:34 PM
weirdly honest messaging from the breakaway mod/institutionalist leaders who blew up the party strategy
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
they're explicitly giving up. "It wasn't working so we quit" that's the message
seems very clear there's a specific breakaway group of mods and, in particular, institutionalists trying to force the Senate conference to break or bend
Slotkin and Gallego both nos at least going into the meeting because they're not part of the breakaway group
Slotkin and Gallego both nos at least going into the meeting because they're not part of the breakaway group
November 9, 2025 at 11:10 PM
seems very clear there's a specific breakaway group of mods and, in particular, institutionalists trying to force the Senate conference to break or bend
Slotkin and Gallego both nos at least going into the meeting because they're not part of the breakaway group
Slotkin and Gallego both nos at least going into the meeting because they're not part of the breakaway group
"Mr. Clase and Mr. Ortiz received thousands of dollars in bribes from the bettors, prosecutors said."
...
"Overall, the bettors netted at least $450,000 from betting on Mr. Clase’s and Mr. Ortiz’s pitches, according to the indictment."
for context, Emmanuel Clase's earnings and upcoming contract
...
"Overall, the bettors netted at least $450,000 from betting on Mr. Clase’s and Mr. Ortiz’s pitches, according to the indictment."
for context, Emmanuel Clase's earnings and upcoming contract
November 9, 2025 at 9:00 PM
"Mr. Clase and Mr. Ortiz received thousands of dollars in bribes from the bettors, prosecutors said."
...
"Overall, the bettors netted at least $450,000 from betting on Mr. Clase’s and Mr. Ortiz’s pitches, according to the indictment."
for context, Emmanuel Clase's earnings and upcoming contract
...
"Overall, the bettors netted at least $450,000 from betting on Mr. Clase’s and Mr. Ortiz’s pitches, according to the indictment."
for context, Emmanuel Clase's earnings and upcoming contract
yeah seems like there was just no will for continuing the fight
November 9, 2025 at 8:03 PM
yeah seems like there was just no will for continuing the fight
folks are gonna make way way more of this game than was there
City finished their chances exceptionally well
City finished their chances exceptionally well
November 9, 2025 at 6:03 PM
folks are gonna make way way more of this game than was there
City finished their chances exceptionally well
City finished their chances exceptionally well
some ludicrous parity going on in the Premier League table rn
November 9, 2025 at 3:58 PM
some ludicrous parity going on in the Premier League table rn
Republicans for the last several weeks
November 8, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Republicans for the last several weeks
it is both an interesting fact about the world that a non-zero correlation exists between big five trait personality scores and self-submitted photos and it seems utterly fucking nuts for a company to make hiring decisions based on r ~= 0.25 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 6, 2025 at 10:37 PM
it is both an interesting fact about the world that a non-zero correlation exists between big five trait personality scores and self-submitted photos and it seems utterly fucking nuts for a company to make hiring decisions based on r ~= 0.25 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
and now we get an accidental groin goal for Braga
defender's last ditch clearance deflects off Navarro's inner thigh and just rolls past the keeper
"Left foot" ehhhh
defender's last ditch clearance deflects off Navarro's inner thigh and just rolls past the keeper
"Left foot" ehhhh
November 6, 2025 at 9:49 PM
and now we get an accidental groin goal for Braga
defender's last ditch clearance deflects off Navarro's inner thigh and just rolls past the keeper
"Left foot" ehhhh
defender's last ditch clearance deflects off Navarro's inner thigh and just rolls past the keeper
"Left foot" ehhhh
current xG is just 0.73 but he had an open goal in front of him, I think this probably gets revised up
at the same time saying it was taken with his "right foot" is generous it was his quad
at the same time saying it was taken with his "right foot" is generous it was his quad
November 6, 2025 at 9:33 PM
current xG is just 0.73 but he had an open goal in front of him, I think this probably gets revised up
at the same time saying it was taken with his "right foot" is generous it was his quad
at the same time saying it was taken with his "right foot" is generous it was his quad
Here's a little local NYC color to corroborate @natecohn.bsky.social's finding
in Brooklyn's 47th council district, where Harris won by just 2 points in 2024, Democrat Kayla Santosousso won by 19 points
at the precinct level, there is ~no correlation between Harris vote% and relative turnout
in Brooklyn's 47th council district, where Harris won by just 2 points in 2024, Democrat Kayla Santosousso won by 19 points
at the precinct level, there is ~no correlation between Harris vote% and relative turnout
November 6, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Here's a little local NYC color to corroborate @natecohn.bsky.social's finding
in Brooklyn's 47th council district, where Harris won by just 2 points in 2024, Democrat Kayla Santosousso won by 19 points
at the precinct level, there is ~no correlation between Harris vote% and relative turnout
in Brooklyn's 47th council district, where Harris won by just 2 points in 2024, Democrat Kayla Santosousso won by 19 points
at the precinct level, there is ~no correlation between Harris vote% and relative turnout
the great american median voter
November 6, 2025 at 6:04 PM
the great american median voter
oh wow New Jersey was mostly won on persuasion not turnout www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
November 6, 2025 at 5:47 PM
oh wow New Jersey was mostly won on persuasion not turnout www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/u...
the new hotness on the right is recent converts twisting Catholic or Orthodox doctrine into justifications for anti-Semitism (because they were already huge anti-Semites before they converted), and then sandwiching this within seemingly-reasonable claims about US foreign policy x.com/audreyfahlbe...
November 6, 2025 at 1:54 PM
the new hotness on the right is recent converts twisting Catholic or Orthodox doctrine into justifications for anti-Semitism (because they were already huge anti-Semites before they converted), and then sandwiching this within seemingly-reasonable claims about US foreign policy x.com/audreyfahlbe...
there's some kind of subtext to these comments, honestly it's hard to not see
November 6, 2025 at 1:39 PM
there's some kind of subtext to these comments, honestly it's hard to not see
Atlas Intel last minute parachute polling remembrance post
November 6, 2025 at 12:07 AM
Atlas Intel last minute parachute polling remembrance post
Victor Osimhen in Europe (doesn't include today's hat trick)
seems like a guy who could have done a job for a few different teams
seems like a guy who could have done a job for a few different teams
November 5, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Victor Osimhen in Europe (doesn't include today's hat trick)
seems like a guy who could have done a job for a few different teams
seems like a guy who could have done a job for a few different teams
great example of following politics on vibes not substance
-a major plank of Mamdani's affordability pitch has been supporting small businesses in the city (bodegas, food trucks, even taxis are small businesses)
-the Mayor doesn't set tax policy
-a major plank of Mamdani's affordability pitch has been supporting small businesses in the city (bodegas, food trucks, even taxis are small businesses)
-the Mayor doesn't set tax policy
November 5, 2025 at 6:47 PM
great example of following politics on vibes not substance
-a major plank of Mamdani's affordability pitch has been supporting small businesses in the city (bodegas, food trucks, even taxis are small businesses)
-the Mayor doesn't set tax policy
-a major plank of Mamdani's affordability pitch has been supporting small businesses in the city (bodegas, food trucks, even taxis are small businesses)
-the Mayor doesn't set tax policy
the story of the 2025 NYC primary election was astounding rates of youth voting
in the 2025 general election there was still a notable tendency for higher relative turnout in precincts with lots of Gen Z and Millennial residents, but it was significantly less pronounced than in the primary
in the 2025 general election there was still a notable tendency for higher relative turnout in precincts with lots of Gen Z and Millennial residents, but it was significantly less pronounced than in the primary
November 5, 2025 at 5:27 PM
the story of the 2025 NYC primary election was astounding rates of youth voting
in the 2025 general election there was still a notable tendency for higher relative turnout in precincts with lots of Gen Z and Millennial residents, but it was significantly less pronounced than in the primary
in the 2025 general election there was still a notable tendency for higher relative turnout in precincts with lots of Gen Z and Millennial residents, but it was significantly less pronounced than in the primary
one thing that came up after the primary was Zohran's strong showing in some very Republican areas
I was annoying at the time saying that was mostly not a matter of Zohran winning conservative votes, just a different electorate
we can see that Zohran ran well behind Harris in conservative areas
I was annoying at the time saying that was mostly not a matter of Zohran winning conservative votes, just a different electorate
we can see that Zohran ran well behind Harris in conservative areas
November 5, 2025 at 3:05 PM
one thing that came up after the primary was Zohran's strong showing in some very Republican areas
I was annoying at the time saying that was mostly not a matter of Zohran winning conservative votes, just a different electorate
we can see that Zohran ran well behind Harris in conservative areas
I was annoying at the time saying that was mostly not a matter of Zohran winning conservative votes, just a different electorate
we can see that Zohran ran well behind Harris in conservative areas
this, to me, is the core story of the election
in the primary, voters in central Brooklyn, and Southeast Queens supported Cuomo by large margins
but in the general, they voted for Zohran by double digits
Cuomo's inability to hold on to the moderate Democratic base cost him the election
in the primary, voters in central Brooklyn, and Southeast Queens supported Cuomo by large margins
but in the general, they voted for Zohran by double digits
Cuomo's inability to hold on to the moderate Democratic base cost him the election
November 5, 2025 at 2:53 PM
this, to me, is the core story of the election
in the primary, voters in central Brooklyn, and Southeast Queens supported Cuomo by large margins
but in the general, they voted for Zohran by double digits
Cuomo's inability to hold on to the moderate Democratic base cost him the election
in the primary, voters in central Brooklyn, and Southeast Queens supported Cuomo by large margins
but in the general, they voted for Zohran by double digits
Cuomo's inability to hold on to the moderate Democratic base cost him the election
one thing that is clear from the precinct data is that "Asian" needs to be disaggregated (in ways that weren't really the case in 2024)
Zohran ran up large majorities in heavily South Asian areas while running closer to even in heavily East Asian (primarily Chinese) areas
Zohran ran up large majorities in heavily South Asian areas while running closer to even in heavily East Asian (primarily Chinese) areas
November 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM
one thing that is clear from the precinct data is that "Asian" needs to be disaggregated (in ways that weren't really the case in 2024)
Zohran ran up large majorities in heavily South Asian areas while running closer to even in heavily East Asian (primarily Chinese) areas
Zohran ran up large majorities in heavily South Asian areas while running closer to even in heavily East Asian (primarily Chinese) areas