Matt Patterson
@mattpattclimate.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the University of St Andrews and NCAS in climate science and ML. Interests in climate dynamics, jet streams and long-term prediction. Formerly at University of Reading and University of Oxford.
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Latest ECMWF subseasonal forecast shows ensemble mean zonal wind of about 5 m/s at 10 hPa in late November, with roughly 20–30 % of ensemble members indicating a reversal to easterlies (i.e. going < 0 m/s).
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
November 10, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Latest ECMWF subseasonal forecast shows ensemble mean zonal wind of about 5 m/s at 10 hPa in late November, with roughly 20–30 % of ensemble members indicating a reversal to easterlies (i.e. going < 0 m/s).
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
Reposted by Matt Patterson
🚨🌡️🔥🌍🌤️🚨
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
November 4, 2025 at 1:05 PM
🚨🌡️🔥🌍🌤️🚨
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
The other key takeaway here about these kinds of winters is that we see more frequent early winter -AO/-NAO & stratospheric warming events (as the latest Euro weeklies below suggest), followed by a much stronger polar vortex in mid-late winter (Jan-Feb)
November 3, 2025 at 10:05 PM
The other key takeaway here about these kinds of winters is that we see more frequent early winter -AO/-NAO & stratospheric warming events (as the latest Euro weeklies below suggest), followed by a much stronger polar vortex in mid-late winter (Jan-Feb)
Reposted by Matt Patterson
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...
doi.org
October 28, 2025 at 12:27 PM
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Hurricane Melissa will soon make landfall in Jamaica
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
October 28, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Hurricane Melissa will soon make landfall in Jamaica
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
Reposted by Matt Patterson
*** 1 metre of rain ***
Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, is forecast to bring catastrophic damage to parts of the Caribbean
The mountains of Jamaica could receive 1 metre of rain, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides
Destructive winds and storm surges are also likely
The mountains of Jamaica could receive 1 metre of rain, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides
Destructive winds and storm surges are also likely
October 27, 2025 at 6:03 PM
*** 1 metre of rain ***
Reposted by Matt Patterson
So people demand "AI" sycophancy, refuse to interact w/ *less* sycophantic "AI", & then get increasingly ill-disposed toward interacting w/ other human beings, preferring, again, an "AI" system that is actively locking them into a loop of skills dependency, bias confirmation, & hostility.
SEEMS BAD
SEEMS BAD
October 24, 2025 at 2:53 PM
So people demand "AI" sycophancy, refuse to interact w/ *less* sycophantic "AI", & then get increasingly ill-disposed toward interacting w/ other human beings, preferring, again, an "AI" system that is actively locking them into a loop of skills dependency, bias confirmation, & hostility.
SEEMS BAD
SEEMS BAD
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Light speed is fast, but space is vast...
November 17, 2024 at 10:54 PM
Light speed is fast, but space is vast...
“On average, people spend 56.6 hours a year - equivalent to two days and nine hours - talking about it [weather], with 60% saying it’s their go-to small talk topic.“
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
Is your wardrobe #WeatherReady for the winter?
A recent survey found that 35% of us check the weather forecast before planning what to wear.
Find out how you can be prepared (including with your outfits) for any impactful weather this winter 👇
A recent survey found that 35% of us check the weather forecast before planning what to wear.
Find out how you can be prepared (including with your outfits) for any impactful weather this winter 👇
Laundry and outfit planning among the leading motivations behind checking the forecast, research reveals
Research from the Met Office has revealed that the most popular reason people check the weather forecast is to decide whether to hang out the washing.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
October 23, 2025 at 12:40 PM
“On average, people spend 56.6 hours a year - equivalent to two days and nine hours - talking about it [weather], with 60% saying it’s their go-to small talk topic.“
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
From St Andrews you can see a striking inversion looking north towards the Tay. Bright sunshine in Fife, thick cloud in Dundee.
#Fife #Weather at 10:01
🌡10.5°C (🔺11.3°C/🔻10.5°C)
💧97%RH
🌬SW 0.9mph, Max Gust 6.9mph
🌀987.4mb Steady
☔0.0mm/hr, 1.20mm
🏭Air quality:
🟢PM2.5: 2.8 (AQI 1, Low pollution)
🟢PM10: 53.8 (AQI 4, Moderate pollution)
🌡10.5°C (🔺11.3°C/🔻10.5°C)
💧97%RH
🌬SW 0.9mph, Max Gust 6.9mph
🌀987.4mb Steady
☔0.0mm/hr, 1.20mm
🏭Air quality:
🟢PM2.5: 2.8 (AQI 1, Low pollution)
🟢PM10: 53.8 (AQI 4, Moderate pollution)
October 20, 2025 at 9:26 AM
From St Andrews you can see a striking inversion looking north towards the Tay. Bright sunshine in Fife, thick cloud in Dundee.
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Longtime climate scientist J. Michael Wallace got his start in meteorology back when pre-internet conspiracy theorists asserted that a nuclear test caused a tornado... Now he reflects on a heap of lessons learned as global warming science has piled up. revkin.substack.com/p/warming-wo... 🧪
October 15, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Longtime climate scientist J. Michael Wallace got his start in meteorology back when pre-internet conspiracy theorists asserted that a nuclear test caused a tornado... Now he reflects on a heap of lessons learned as global warming science has piled up. revkin.substack.com/p/warming-wo... 🧪
Reposted by Matt Patterson
⚠️ England has 2nd worst harvest on record
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
October 14, 2025 at 10:25 AM
⚠️ England has 2nd worst harvest on record
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
An atmospheric general circulation model you can run on a Python Jupyter notebook?! Heck yeah! Check out this project- both an educational tool for undergraduates/graduate students, and a research tool for scientists interested in idealized climate modeling.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
October 13, 2025 at 7:35 PM
An atmospheric general circulation model you can run on a Python Jupyter notebook?! Heck yeah! Check out this project- both an educational tool for undergraduates/graduate students, and a research tool for scientists interested in idealized climate modeling.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
For so long, fossil fuel projects have said their contribution to climate change is "negligible".
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making - npj Climate Action
npj Climate Action - Quantifying the regional to global climate impacts of individual fossil fuel projects to inform decision-making
www.nature.com
October 13, 2025 at 10:07 AM
For so long, fossil fuel projects have said their contribution to climate change is "negligible".
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Coming soon in November - some incredible scientific computing training by @ncas-uk.bsky.social. Just starting out? Or needing to brush up on new tools? We've got it covered 👇
Our Introduction to Scientific Computing training course is coming soon!
From the Linux Shell to Python, this course will prepare you to use computing in environmental science research.
4 November, online
17 – 21 November, Leeds
Apply by 31 October:
ncas.ac.uk/study-with-u...
From the Linux Shell to Python, this course will prepare you to use computing in environmental science research.
4 November, online
17 – 21 November, Leeds
Apply by 31 October:
ncas.ac.uk/study-with-u...
Introduction to Scientific Computing - NCAS
The Introduction to Scientific Computing course covers the skills needed for effective data management and analysis using Linux and Python.
ncas.ac.uk
October 10, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Coming soon in November - some incredible scientific computing training by @ncas-uk.bsky.social. Just starting out? Or needing to brush up on new tools? We've got it covered 👇
Reposted by Matt Patterson
How does working in atmospheric science during a climate crisis impact you?
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
October 10, 2025 at 8:57 AM
How does working in atmospheric science during a climate crisis impact you?
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
Reposted by Matt Patterson
There's a strong high over NW Europe today.
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
October 10, 2025 at 9:01 AM
There's a strong high over NW Europe today.
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Machine learning can now predict El Niño up to 23 months ahead, using wind data from the Indian Ocean. Dr Ioana Colfescu shows how AI cuts complexity, boosts accuracy, and helps us prep for climate extremes.
Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...
Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...
In conversation with Dr Ioana Colfescu: Machine learning can predict ENSO - NCAS
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular climate pattern that brings heavy rain, droughts and temperature changes around the world. ENSO cycles between El Niño and La Nina every 2-7…
ncas.ac.uk
September 29, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Machine learning can now predict El Niño up to 23 months ahead, using wind data from the Indian Ocean. Dr Ioana Colfescu shows how AI cuts complexity, boosts accuracy, and helps us prep for climate extremes.
Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...
Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
As a theoretical cosmologist, I'm frequently asked "what is the benefit of the work you're doing for people's lives?" Nothing I work on makes money or cures disease.
There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."
1/🧵
There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."
1/🧵
October 3, 2025 at 7:32 PM
As a theoretical cosmologist, I'm frequently asked "what is the benefit of the work you're doing for people's lives?" Nothing I work on makes money or cures disease.
There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."
1/🧵
There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."
1/🧵
Equally, we will not regret acting faster on climate change.
We will regret not acting faster on climate change.
October 2, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Equally, we will not regret acting faster on climate change.
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Are you interested in seasonal forecasts and how they have advanced over the past two decades?
Chris O’Reilly (Univ. of Reading) led a new paper on exactly this: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Chris O’Reilly (Univ. of Reading) led a new paper on exactly this: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Evaluating seasonal forecast improvements over the past two decades
We have analysed the performance of operational seasonal forecasting models since their inception. Clear improvements are measured through the different model eras, particularly in the Tropics. For t....
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
September 30, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Are you interested in seasonal forecasts and how they have advanced over the past two decades?
Chris O’Reilly (Univ. of Reading) led a new paper on exactly this: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Chris O’Reilly (Univ. of Reading) led a new paper on exactly this: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Big for AI at the @metoffice.gov.uk Fastnet dropped on the arxiv: arxiv.org/abs/2509.17658
Technical overview and architecture of the FastNet Machine Learning weather prediction model, version 1.0
We present FastNet version 1.0, a data-driven medium range numerical weather prediction (NWP) model based on a Graph Neural Network architecture, developed jointly between the Alan Turing Institute an...
arxiv.org
September 23, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Big for AI at the @metoffice.gov.uk Fastnet dropped on the arxiv: arxiv.org/abs/2509.17658
Reposted by Matt Patterson
🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing and nutrient load reduced by a well-ventilated glacial North Pacific - Nature Communications
A better-ventilated North Pacific could have reduced the carbon of water upwelled in the Southern Ocean, reducing outgassing and revealing a remote influence on Southern Ocean biogeochemistry in glaci...
www.nature.com
September 17, 2025 at 5:50 PM
🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Matt Patterson
Meet the motley crew of the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences – ready to kick off the new academic year! 🌍👋
Special mention to our Head of School, Prof. Rob Wilson, who is cleverly disguised a a responsible adult (the T-shirt says it all) 😅🤦♂
www.st-andrews.ac.uk/earth-scienc...
Special mention to our Head of School, Prof. Rob Wilson, who is cleverly disguised a a responsible adult (the T-shirt says it all) 😅🤦♂
www.st-andrews.ac.uk/earth-scienc...
September 12, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Meet the motley crew of the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences – ready to kick off the new academic year! 🌍👋
Special mention to our Head of School, Prof. Rob Wilson, who is cleverly disguised a a responsible adult (the T-shirt says it all) 😅🤦♂
www.st-andrews.ac.uk/earth-scienc...
Special mention to our Head of School, Prof. Rob Wilson, who is cleverly disguised a a responsible adult (the T-shirt says it all) 😅🤦♂
www.st-andrews.ac.uk/earth-scienc...