James Peacock
@peacockreports.bsky.social
Head Meteorologist at MetSwift, working to revolutionise delivery of weather information.
LinkedIn: https://t.co/pUCAQfAfRP
LinkedIn: https://t.co/pUCAQfAfRP
I've been hesitant to talk about colder UK weather next week, due to poor forecast confidence (huge spread) plus little sign of anything all that interesting for lowland areas.
Even the coldest ECMWF ensemble runs are barely cold enough for snowfall in Reading for example.
Even the coldest ECMWF ensemble runs are barely cold enough for snowfall in Reading for example.
November 10, 2025 at 10:02 AM
I've been hesitant to talk about colder UK weather next week, due to poor forecast confidence (huge spread) plus little sign of anything all that interesting for lowland areas.
Even the coldest ECMWF ensemble runs are barely cold enough for snowfall in Reading for example.
Even the coldest ECMWF ensemble runs are barely cold enough for snowfall in Reading for example.
Had a go at mapping historical Hadley mean central England temperature data to the potential impact periods of major sudden stratospheric warming events (based on literature), while grouping into displacement & split type events.
There are some clear differences between them...
There are some clear differences between them...
November 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Had a go at mapping historical Hadley mean central England temperature data to the potential impact periods of major sudden stratospheric warming events (based on literature), while grouping into displacement & split type events.
There are some clear differences between them...
There are some clear differences between them...
2025 delivered the warmest 1st-6th November in the 254-year Hadley mean CET series, knocking 1996 down to 2nd.
For 1st-7th, the record highest is nearly 0.5°C lower. Today is extremely mild again for the CET region. So we can expect that record to be well beaten by 2025.
For 1st-7th, the record highest is nearly 0.5°C lower. Today is extremely mild again for the CET region. So we can expect that record to be well beaten by 2025.
November 7, 2025 at 2:26 PM
2025 delivered the warmest 1st-6th November in the 254-year Hadley mean CET series, knocking 1996 down to 2nd.
For 1st-7th, the record highest is nearly 0.5°C lower. Today is extremely mild again for the CET region. So we can expect that record to be well beaten by 2025.
For 1st-7th, the record highest is nearly 0.5°C lower. Today is extremely mild again for the CET region. So we can expect that record to be well beaten by 2025.
A wide area of the SE US below 0°C.
Meanwhile, my local area in CS England has yet to drop lower than 2.5°C (36.5°F) this season.
Meanwhile, my local area in CS England has yet to drop lower than 2.5°C (36.5°F) this season.
This may be the coldest early November outbreak in parts of Florida and the Southeast since 1993.
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
November 7, 2025 at 11:54 AM
A wide area of the SE US below 0°C.
Meanwhile, my local area in CS England has yet to drop lower than 2.5°C (36.5°F) this season.
Meanwhile, my local area in CS England has yet to drop lower than 2.5°C (36.5°F) this season.
Unsurprisingly, 2025 is doing battle with the likes of 2010 & 2015 for the title of mildest opening stages of November on record in my local area (& likely many parts of the UK).
For up to 6th Nov, 2025's in 2nd place. Outlook is very to extremely mild through at least next Thu.
For up to 6th Nov, 2025's in 2nd place. Outlook is very to extremely mild through at least next Thu.
November 7, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Unsurprisingly, 2025 is doing battle with the likes of 2010 & 2015 for the title of mildest opening stages of November on record in my local area (& likely many parts of the UK).
For up to 6th Nov, 2025's in 2nd place. Outlook is very to extremely mild through at least next Thu.
For up to 6th Nov, 2025's in 2nd place. Outlook is very to extremely mild through at least next Thu.
My experimental 'temperature extreme index' represents where this year's observed temps are in relation to the long-term average (index 0) & weekly record high (1) or low (-1) values.
Where it exceeds 1 or -1, new weekly record highs or lows were set (5th Nov, new night high).
Where it exceeds 1 or -1, new weekly record highs or lows were set (5th Nov, new night high).
November 7, 2025 at 9:53 AM
My experimental 'temperature extreme index' represents where this year's observed temps are in relation to the long-term average (index 0) & weekly record high (1) or low (-1) values.
Where it exceeds 1 or -1, new weekly record highs or lows were set (5th Nov, new night high).
Where it exceeds 1 or -1, new weekly record highs or lows were set (5th Nov, new night high).
A 'negative North Atlantic Oscillation' (NAO) pattern is characterised by relatively high pressure in the Greenland-Iceland area & low pressure nearer the Azores.
It's often considered a bearer of cold weather for NW Europe, yet this isn't always true, as next week will demonstrate...
It's often considered a bearer of cold weather for NW Europe, yet this isn't always true, as next week will demonstrate...
November 6, 2025 at 10:52 AM
A 'negative North Atlantic Oscillation' (NAO) pattern is characterised by relatively high pressure in the Greenland-Iceland area & low pressure nearer the Azores.
It's often considered a bearer of cold weather for NW Europe, yet this isn't always true, as next week will demonstrate...
It's often considered a bearer of cold weather for NW Europe, yet this isn't always true, as next week will demonstrate...
Just realised there was a date record highest minimum here in NE Dorset last night, 13.7°C comfortably topping a 12.9°C in 2010.
However, when looking at a weekly window around the date which is arguably more meaningful, 2010 is still on top with a 13.9°C on 3rd Nov.
However, when looking at a weekly window around the date which is arguably more meaningful, 2010 is still on top with a 13.9°C on 3rd Nov.
November 4, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Just realised there was a date record highest minimum here in NE Dorset last night, 13.7°C comfortably topping a 12.9°C in 2010.
However, when looking at a weekly window around the date which is arguably more meaningful, 2010 is still on top with a 13.9°C on 3rd Nov.
However, when looking at a weekly window around the date which is arguably more meaningful, 2010 is still on top with a 13.9°C on 3rd Nov.
Interesting to see so many ECMWF ensemble members producing a major sudden stratospheric warming event, where the 60N zonal wind at 10 hPa reverses, in late Nov or 1st half Dec.
In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
November 4, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Interesting to see so many ECMWF ensemble members producing a major sudden stratospheric warming event, where the 60N zonal wind at 10 hPa reverses, in late Nov or 1st half Dec.
In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
In records back to 1959 I'm aware of only 3 major SSWs within 1st half Dec & none in November.
Some notably high temperatures for the time of year in northern Europe this week.
Hints of something similar for western Europe later next week too, but uncertain how far north or east it reaches, with colder conditions attempting to advance from the north instead.
Hints of something similar for western Europe later next week too, but uncertain how far north or east it reaches, with colder conditions attempting to advance from the north instead.
November 3, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Some notably high temperatures for the time of year in northern Europe this week.
Hints of something similar for western Europe later next week too, but uncertain how far north or east it reaches, with colder conditions attempting to advance from the north instead.
Hints of something similar for western Europe later next week too, but uncertain how far north or east it reaches, with colder conditions attempting to advance from the north instead.
I've had little to say about the Hadley mean Central England Temperature this month & with good reason - it's not been very interesting!
Since 2nd it's always been among the warmest 56 on record, but never ranked higher than 31st.
Looks to finish ~0.5°C above the 1991-2020 average, ~40th warmest.
Since 2nd it's always been among the warmest 56 on record, but never ranked higher than 31st.
Looks to finish ~0.5°C above the 1991-2020 average, ~40th warmest.
October 29, 2025 at 3:55 PM
I've had little to say about the Hadley mean Central England Temperature this month & with good reason - it's not been very interesting!
Since 2nd it's always been among the warmest 56 on record, but never ranked higher than 31st.
Looks to finish ~0.5°C above the 1991-2020 average, ~40th warmest.
Since 2nd it's always been among the warmest 56 on record, but never ranked higher than 31st.
Looks to finish ~0.5°C above the 1991-2020 average, ~40th warmest.
Hurricane Melissa will pass near Newfoundland on 1st Nov as an ex-tropical cyclone, then head toward the Iceland/UK area.
This flings a lot of warm, moisture-laden air across Europe. Unusually low heating demand for early Nov, but also a risk of excessive rainfall in the north.
This flings a lot of warm, moisture-laden air across Europe. Unusually low heating demand for early Nov, but also a risk of excessive rainfall in the north.
October 29, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Hurricane Melissa will pass near Newfoundland on 1st Nov as an ex-tropical cyclone, then head toward the Iceland/UK area.
This flings a lot of warm, moisture-laden air across Europe. Unusually low heating demand for early Nov, but also a risk of excessive rainfall in the north.
This flings a lot of warm, moisture-laden air across Europe. Unusually low heating demand for early Nov, but also a risk of excessive rainfall in the north.
With hurricane Melissa, we've seen a near-worst case scenario in terms of intensity & cumulative impact on land areas 😔
A larger, comparably strong hurricane tracking its eye just west of Jamaica, then just west of Manzanillo, would perhaps be even worse. Hopefully never to be.
A larger, comparably strong hurricane tracking its eye just west of Jamaica, then just west of Manzanillo, would perhaps be even worse. Hopefully never to be.
October 29, 2025 at 10:11 AM
With hurricane Melissa, we've seen a near-worst case scenario in terms of intensity & cumulative impact on land areas 😔
A larger, comparably strong hurricane tracking its eye just west of Jamaica, then just west of Manzanillo, would perhaps be even worse. Hopefully never to be.
A larger, comparably strong hurricane tracking its eye just west of Jamaica, then just west of Manzanillo, would perhaps be even worse. Hopefully never to be.
Melissa's second landfall, just west of Santiago, has for the most part put it up against similarly rugged terrain to what it encountered in western Jamaica.
However, the western flank of its circulation is traversing some even higher mountains, which will give it a hard time.
However, the western flank of its circulation is traversing some even higher mountains, which will give it a hard time.
October 29, 2025 at 9:58 AM
Melissa's second landfall, just west of Santiago, has for the most part put it up against similarly rugged terrain to what it encountered in western Jamaica.
However, the western flank of its circulation is traversing some even higher mountains, which will give it a hard time.
However, the western flank of its circulation is traversing some even higher mountains, which will give it a hard time.
If this 892 mb reading is confirmed by the NHC, Melissa's min. sea-level pressure will have matched that of the 1935 'Cuba' hurricane (no official name in database), as the 3rd lowest on record for an Atlantic basin tropical cyclone.
1st is Wilma 2005 (882 mb), 2nd Gilbert 1988 (888 mb).
1st is Wilma 2005 (882 mb), 2nd Gilbert 1988 (888 mb).
October 28, 2025 at 1:56 PM
If this 892 mb reading is confirmed by the NHC, Melissa's min. sea-level pressure will have matched that of the 1935 'Cuba' hurricane (no official name in database), as the 3rd lowest on record for an Atlantic basin tropical cyclone.
1st is Wilma 2005 (882 mb), 2nd Gilbert 1988 (888 mb).
1st is Wilma 2005 (882 mb), 2nd Gilbert 1988 (888 mb).
Insignificant compared to its imminent impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, & Haiti, but I'm keeping an eye on the potential for (ex-) Melissa to throw some exceptionally warm air (for the time of year) across northern Europe next Tue-Wed.
October 28, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Insignificant compared to its imminent impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, & Haiti, but I'm keeping an eye on the potential for (ex-) Melissa to throw some exceptionally warm air (for the time of year) across northern Europe next Tue-Wed.
Reposted by James Peacock
The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...
October 28, 2025 at 1:53 AM
The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...
An update to the Atlantic basin first 5 hurricanes mean peak wind speed graph. This season has no reliable precedent.
It's a tragedy that 2025's strongest will not only have the largest area of direct impact on land, but do so while at or close to its peak intensity.
It's a tragedy that 2025's strongest will not only have the largest area of direct impact on land, but do so while at or close to its peak intensity.
October 28, 2025 at 9:39 AM
An update to the Atlantic basin first 5 hurricanes mean peak wind speed graph. This season has no reliable precedent.
It's a tragedy that 2025's strongest will not only have the largest area of direct impact on land, but do so while at or close to its peak intensity.
It's a tragedy that 2025's strongest will not only have the largest area of direct impact on land, but do so while at or close to its peak intensity.
Caveats apply with the pre-satellite era data, but from the information available in the IBTrACS v4 database, 2025 has set a new record for the highest mean peak wind speed of the first 5 hurricanes in an Atlantic season at 143.8 mph, edging out 1999's 138.1 mph.
October 27, 2025 at 10:10 AM
Caveats apply with the pre-satellite era data, but from the information available in the IBTrACS v4 database, 2025 has set a new record for the highest mean peak wind speed of the first 5 hurricanes in an Atlantic season at 143.8 mph, edging out 1999's 138.1 mph.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now on a below average 5 hurricanes, but an above average 4 major hurricanes.
In the IBTrACS v4 database I can only find two other seasons since 1900 on 5 hurricanes, 4 majors up to this point: 1909 & 1948.
None were on 6, 5 or 7, 6.
In the IBTrACS v4 database I can only find two other seasons since 1900 on 5 hurricanes, 4 majors up to this point: 1909 & 1948.
None were on 6, 5 or 7, 6.
October 27, 2025 at 9:55 AM
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now on a below average 5 hurricanes, but an above average 4 major hurricanes.
In the IBTrACS v4 database I can only find two other seasons since 1900 on 5 hurricanes, 4 majors up to this point: 1909 & 1948.
None were on 6, 5 or 7, 6.
In the IBTrACS v4 database I can only find two other seasons since 1900 on 5 hurricanes, 4 majors up to this point: 1909 & 1948.
None were on 6, 5 or 7, 6.
Melissa's slow crawl while strengthening to category 5 is very reminiscent of Dorian 2019, except the eyewall is thankfully not impacting any land areas.
Sadly, it's forecast to turn toward Jamaica tonight & make landfall there tomorrow... as a category 5.
Stay strong, Jamaica.
Sadly, it's forecast to turn toward Jamaica tonight & make landfall there tomorrow... as a category 5.
Stay strong, Jamaica.
October 27, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Melissa's slow crawl while strengthening to category 5 is very reminiscent of Dorian 2019, except the eyewall is thankfully not impacting any land areas.
Sadly, it's forecast to turn toward Jamaica tonight & make landfall there tomorrow... as a category 5.
Stay strong, Jamaica.
Sadly, it's forecast to turn toward Jamaica tonight & make landfall there tomorrow... as a category 5.
Stay strong, Jamaica.
I daresay the long-awaited onset of faster intensification of hurricane Melissa is either underway or imminent, judging by the very strong convection (black-white shading) enveloping the core.
Meanwhile, an awfully drawn-out impact on Jamaica is now getting underway.
Meanwhile, an awfully drawn-out impact on Jamaica is now getting underway.
October 25, 2025 at 6:41 PM
I daresay the long-awaited onset of faster intensification of hurricane Melissa is either underway or imminent, judging by the very strong convection (black-white shading) enveloping the core.
Meanwhile, an awfully drawn-out impact on Jamaica is now getting underway.
Meanwhile, an awfully drawn-out impact on Jamaica is now getting underway.
NHC Forecast: "Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct landfall for the island since tropical cyclone record keeping has been made in the Atlantic Basin."
Jamaica is well used to strong hurricanes but still! 😬
Jamaica is well used to strong hurricanes but still! 😬
October 25, 2025 at 6:33 PM
NHC Forecast: "Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct landfall for the island since tropical cyclone record keeping has been made in the Atlantic Basin."
Jamaica is well used to strong hurricanes but still! 😬
Jamaica is well used to strong hurricanes but still! 😬
Areas of low pressure look set to dominate the weather over western Europe for the next week or so.
Until ~next Friday, associated wet weather focuses on Portugal & into Spain, before spreading further northwest.
Parts of Portugal could see 100-150 mm in the next ten days.
Until ~next Friday, associated wet weather focuses on Portugal & into Spain, before spreading further northwest.
Parts of Portugal could see 100-150 mm in the next ten days.
October 24, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Areas of low pressure look set to dominate the weather over western Europe for the next week or so.
Until ~next Friday, associated wet weather focuses on Portugal & into Spain, before spreading further northwest.
Parts of Portugal could see 100-150 mm in the next ten days.
Until ~next Friday, associated wet weather focuses on Portugal & into Spain, before spreading further northwest.
Parts of Portugal could see 100-150 mm in the next ten days.
Here we see a rare instance of the automated summary on the NHC active tropical cyclones page showing "Moving: at mph" due to Melissa being pretty much stationary.
It's just standing there, menacingly.
It's just standing there, menacingly.
October 24, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Here we see a rare instance of the automated summary on the NHC active tropical cyclones page showing "Moving: at mph" due to Melissa being pretty much stationary.
It's just standing there, menacingly.
It's just standing there, menacingly.