Timur Kadyshev
@kadyshev.bsky.social
Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter
https://www.hamburg-armscontrol.de/en/staff/timur-kadyshev-2/
IFSH https://bsky.app/profile/ifshhamburg.bsky.social
All views mine. RTs/Likes mean I found it interesting, not that I agree.
Profile photo ©IFSH
https://www.hamburg-armscontrol.de/en/staff/timur-kadyshev-2/
IFSH https://bsky.app/profile/ifshhamburg.bsky.social
All views mine. RTs/Likes mean I found it interesting, not that I agree.
Profile photo ©IFSH
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/
October 26, 2025 at 8:47 AM
On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
The End of MAD?
Join me, Steve Fetter, @jaysankarans.bsky.social, TD MacDonald, Ton Stefanik, @lauraegrego.bsky.social, @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social, and Charlie Glaser to discuss whether technological developments are undermining mutually assured destruction.
Link for virtual rego in next post.
Join me, Steve Fetter, @jaysankarans.bsky.social, TD MacDonald, Ton Stefanik, @lauraegrego.bsky.social, @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social, and Charlie Glaser to discuss whether technological developments are undermining mutually assured destruction.
Link for virtual rego in next post.
a man in a shirt and tie is screaming with his hands in the air .
ALT: a man in a shirt and tie is screaming with his hands in the air .
media.tenor.com
September 30, 2025 at 1:47 PM
The End of MAD?
Join me, Steve Fetter, @jaysankarans.bsky.social, TD MacDonald, Ton Stefanik, @lauraegrego.bsky.social, @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social, and Charlie Glaser to discuss whether technological developments are undermining mutually assured destruction.
Link for virtual rego in next post.
Join me, Steve Fetter, @jaysankarans.bsky.social, TD MacDonald, Ton Stefanik, @lauraegrego.bsky.social, @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social, and Charlie Glaser to discuss whether technological developments are undermining mutually assured destruction.
Link for virtual rego in next post.
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
Climate change & nuclear weapons are often seen as twin threats to future generations. My new open access article shows that while both pose similar moral dilemmas, intergenerational nuclear injustice is harder to spot—and harder to fix.
doi.org/10.1111/1758...
1/🧵
doi.org/10.1111/1758...
1/🧵
September 26, 2025 at 9:01 AM
Climate change & nuclear weapons are often seen as twin threats to future generations. My new open access article shows that while both pose similar moral dilemmas, intergenerational nuclear injustice is harder to spot—and harder to fix.
doi.org/10.1111/1758...
1/🧵
doi.org/10.1111/1758...
1/🧵
Deutsche Bahn is cautiously optimistic
September 12, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Deutsche Bahn is cautiously optimistic
Our workshop report “Assessing Missile Defense Technology and Policy Half a Century After the ABM Treaty” is now out in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Assessing Missile Defense Technology and Policy Half a Century After the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty: A Workshop Report
Published in Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament (Ahead of Print, 2025)
www.tandfonline.com
September 3, 2025 at 5:20 PM
Our workshop report “Assessing Missile Defense Technology and Policy Half a Century After the ABM Treaty” is now out in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
To be sure, I'm not saying that Russia did not violate INF Treaty, my points are:
- calculation of maximum theoretical range of a CM is not a correct way to determine its actual maximum range;
1/2
bsky.app/profile/kady...
- calculation of maximum theoretical range of a CM is not a correct way to determine its actual maximum range;
1/2
bsky.app/profile/kady...
BM and CM are very different beasts. Why do you think GLBM range is defind as “range,” while GLCM range need to be ”determined by projecting its flight path onto the earths sphere from the point of launch to the point of impact."?
1/6
bsky.app/profile/frho...
1/6
bsky.app/profile/frho...
I'm sorry, but the arguments in this thread make no sense.
"While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability".
If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way.
1/5
"While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability".
If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way.
1/5
August 14, 2025 at 1:02 PM
To be sure, I'm not saying that Russia did not violate INF Treaty, my points are:
- calculation of maximum theoretical range of a CM is not a correct way to determine its actual maximum range;
1/2
bsky.app/profile/kady...
- calculation of maximum theoretical range of a CM is not a correct way to determine its actual maximum range;
1/2
bsky.app/profile/kady...
BM and CM are very different beasts. Why do you think GLBM range is defind as “range,” while GLCM range need to be ”determined by projecting its flight path onto the earths sphere from the point of launch to the point of impact."?
1/6
bsky.app/profile/frho...
1/6
bsky.app/profile/frho...
I'm sorry, but the arguments in this thread make no sense.
"While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability".
If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way.
1/5
"While the wording differs, in both cases the underlying criterion is the missile’s tested capability".
If the negotiators had wanted the same criterion for GLBMs and GLCMs, they could have easily written it that way.
1/5
August 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM
BM and CM are very different beasts. Why do you think GLBM range is defind as “range,” while GLCM range need to be ”determined by projecting its flight path onto the earths sphere from the point of launch to the point of impact."?
1/6
bsky.app/profile/frho...
1/6
bsky.app/profile/frho...
On the 9M729 Controversy Under INF Treaty Rules
A followup to my reply bsky.app/profile/kady... to the discussion on 9M729 (re)initiated by @frhoffmann.bsky.social
Under the INF Treaty, “range capability” is defined for ballistic missiles as “the maximum range to which it has been tested,”
1/6
A followup to my reply bsky.app/profile/kady... to the discussion on 9M729 (re)initiated by @frhoffmann.bsky.social
Under the INF Treaty, “range capability” is defined for ballistic missiles as “the maximum range to which it has been tested,”
1/6
Interesting post by @frhoffmann.bsky.social
My own ball-park calculations on the subject: let's take Tomahawk 1,600 km range-optimized version and try to estimate its range at very low altitude for the duration of the flight. 1/3 bsky.app/profile/frho...
My own ball-park calculations on the subject: let's take Tomahawk 1,600 km range-optimized version and try to estimate its range at very low altitude for the duration of the flight. 1/3 bsky.app/profile/frho...
Hi all,
I published my latest newsletter earlier, where I provide a technical analysis of the 9M729 to show that even without access to classified information it's clear that Russia has been lying.
Access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/the-morat...
Short summary below.
1/7
I published my latest newsletter earlier, where I provide a technical analysis of the 9M729 to show that even without access to classified information it's clear that Russia has been lying.
Access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/the-morat...
Short summary below.
1/7
August 11, 2025 at 7:24 PM
On the 9M729 Controversy Under INF Treaty Rules
A followup to my reply bsky.app/profile/kady... to the discussion on 9M729 (re)initiated by @frhoffmann.bsky.social
Under the INF Treaty, “range capability” is defined for ballistic missiles as “the maximum range to which it has been tested,”
1/6
A followup to my reply bsky.app/profile/kady... to the discussion on 9M729 (re)initiated by @frhoffmann.bsky.social
Under the INF Treaty, “range capability” is defined for ballistic missiles as “the maximum range to which it has been tested,”
1/6
Interesting post by @frhoffmann.bsky.social
My own ball-park calculations on the subject: let's take Tomahawk 1,600 km range-optimized version and try to estimate its range at very low altitude for the duration of the flight. 1/3 bsky.app/profile/frho...
My own ball-park calculations on the subject: let's take Tomahawk 1,600 km range-optimized version and try to estimate its range at very low altitude for the duration of the flight. 1/3 bsky.app/profile/frho...
Hi all,
I published my latest newsletter earlier, where I provide a technical analysis of the 9M729 to show that even without access to classified information it's clear that Russia has been lying.
Access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/the-morat...
Short summary below.
1/7
I published my latest newsletter earlier, where I provide a technical analysis of the 9M729 to show that even without access to classified information it's clear that Russia has been lying.
Access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/the-morat...
Short summary below.
1/7
The Moratorium That Was None – Russia's Final INF-Range Missile Scam
A technical analysis of the 9M729’s range easily dispels Russian propaganda
missilematters.substack.com
August 11, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Interesting post by @frhoffmann.bsky.social
My own ball-park calculations on the subject: let's take Tomahawk 1,600 km range-optimized version and try to estimate its range at very low altitude for the duration of the flight. 1/3 bsky.app/profile/frho...
My own ball-park calculations on the subject: let's take Tomahawk 1,600 km range-optimized version and try to estimate its range at very low altitude for the duration of the flight. 1/3 bsky.app/profile/frho...
Bild today: "Trump's special envoy, Witkoff, is said to have... misinterpreted Russia's demand for a "peaceful withdrawal" of Ukrainians from Kherson and Zaporizhia as an offer of a "peaceful withdrawal" by the Russians from these regions."
www.bild.de/politik/ausl...
www.bild.de/politik/ausl...
„Friedlicher Rückzug“: Hat Trumps Mann Putin falsch verstanden?
Verwirrung um Ukraine-Friedensgipfel: Witkoff missinterpretiert Putins Forderungen.
www.bild.de
August 9, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Bild today: "Trump's special envoy, Witkoff, is said to have... misinterpreted Russia's demand for a "peaceful withdrawal" of Ukrainians from Kherson and Zaporizhia as an offer of a "peaceful withdrawal" by the Russians from these regions."
www.bild.de/politik/ausl...
www.bild.de/politik/ausl...
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
In case you missed it, here is "Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume XLIV, Part 1, National Security Policy, 1985–1988" history.state.gov/historicaldo...
August 7, 2025 at 7:41 AM
In case you missed it, here is "Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume XLIV, Part 1, National Security Policy, 1985–1988" history.state.gov/historicaldo...
Interviewed by CNN (via @gianlucamezzo.bsky.social and @tqiblawi.bsky.social) on the tech side of the Israel–Iran conflict for this report: edition.cnn.com/2025/07/28/m...
US used up about a quarter of its high-end missile interceptors during Israel-Iran war, exposing gap in supplies | CNN
The United States blew through about a quarter of its supply of high-end THAAD missile interceptors during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June, according to two sources familiar with the operation, ...
edition.cnn.com
July 28, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Interviewed by CNN (via @gianlucamezzo.bsky.social and @tqiblawi.bsky.social) on the tech side of the Israel–Iran conflict for this report: edition.cnn.com/2025/07/28/m...
Join IFSH!
We are seeking a Senior Researcher with broad expertise in dual-use technologies and their impact on deterrence, defense, and arms control policies. The position will not focus on cyber topics.
ifsh.de/en/institute...
We are seeking a Senior Researcher with broad expertise in dual-use technologies and their impact on deterrence, defense, and arms control policies. The position will not focus on cyber topics.
ifsh.de/en/institute...
IFSH: A Senior Researcher (full-time) for the “Research and Transfer Project Arms Control and Emerging Technologies – Phase II”
The IFSH is an interdisciplinary foundation and research institution at the University of Hamburg, which is institutionally supported by the Free and…
ifsh.de
July 23, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Join IFSH!
We are seeking a Senior Researcher with broad expertise in dual-use technologies and their impact on deterrence, defense, and arms control policies. The position will not focus on cyber topics.
ifsh.de/en/institute...
We are seeking a Senior Researcher with broad expertise in dual-use technologies and their impact on deterrence, defense, and arms control policies. The position will not focus on cyber topics.
ifsh.de/en/institute...
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
How does #Russia look at the #Israel-#Iran war?
How is Russia reacting; how will it position itself; what are its cards; what are its concerns - and what are the implications for its war against #Ukraine?
A🧵on 6 themes
How is Russia reacting; how will it position itself; what are its cards; what are its concerns - and what are the implications for its war against #Ukraine?
A🧵on 6 themes
June 14, 2025 at 7:53 AM
How does #Russia look at the #Israel-#Iran war?
How is Russia reacting; how will it position itself; what are its cards; what are its concerns - and what are the implications for its war against #Ukraine?
A🧵on 6 themes
How is Russia reacting; how will it position itself; what are its cards; what are its concerns - and what are the implications for its war against #Ukraine?
A🧵on 6 themes
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
Nach den ukrainischen Drohnenangriffen auf russische Bomber kursierte das Gerücht, Russland habe die Maschinen wegen des New-START-Vertrags im Freien parken müssen – und sie dadurch angreifbar gemacht. Das stimmt so nicht.
Zum dpa Faktencheck mit Einschätzungen von @kadyshev.bsky.social und mir. 👇
Zum dpa Faktencheck mit Einschätzungen von @kadyshev.bsky.social und mir. 👇
Gerücht über Rüstungskontrolle - «New Start»-Vertrag sieht Hangars für Bomber vor
In einem spektakulären Angriff hat die Ukraine mehrere russische Militärflugplätze mit strategischen Kampfbombern attackiert, die teilweise Tausende Kilometer von der Grenze entfernt lagen. In Aufnahm...
dpa-factchecking.com
June 6, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Nach den ukrainischen Drohnenangriffen auf russische Bomber kursierte das Gerücht, Russland habe die Maschinen wegen des New-START-Vertrags im Freien parken müssen – und sie dadurch angreifbar gemacht. Das stimmt so nicht.
Zum dpa Faktencheck mit Einschätzungen von @kadyshev.bsky.social und mir. 👇
Zum dpa Faktencheck mit Einschätzungen von @kadyshev.bsky.social und mir. 👇
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
June 6, 2025 at 6:53 AM
The article overlooks a key point: the risk of instability stems from Russia’s use of strategic nuclear weapons systems for conventional attacks. It is unrealistic to use strategic assets and expect them not to become legitimate targets.
thebulletin.org/2025/06/ukra...
thebulletin.org/2025/06/ukra...
Ukrainian attack on Russian bombers shows how cheap drones could upset global security
On Wednesday, President Putin reportedly vowed to respond to Ukraine's surprise attack on its strategic bombers. According to Russia's nuclear doctrine, the attack could technically prompt a nuclear r...
thebulletin.org
June 5, 2025 at 1:06 PM
The article overlooks a key point: the risk of instability stems from Russia’s use of strategic nuclear weapons systems for conventional attacks. It is unrealistic to use strategic assets and expect them not to become legitimate targets.
thebulletin.org/2025/06/ukra...
thebulletin.org/2025/06/ukra...
How do you know you’ve done something right? Rubio, Vance and Musk criticize you.
May 3, 2025 at 8:11 AM
How do you know you’ve done something right? Rubio, Vance and Musk criticize you.
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
Wie könnten Kriege der Zukunft aussehen? Welche Rolle spielen Panzer und Drohnen? Eine zweiteilige ZDFinfo-Doku geht tief ins technische Detail hinein - inklusive Interviews mit mehreren unserer IFSH-Rüstungskontrollexpert:innen. Ab sofort in der ZDF-Mediathek zu sehen ➡️ ifsh.de/news-detail/...
ZDFinfo-Dokureihe: Die Kriege der Zukunft
ifsh.de
February 13, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Wie könnten Kriege der Zukunft aussehen? Welche Rolle spielen Panzer und Drohnen? Eine zweiteilige ZDFinfo-Doku geht tief ins technische Detail hinein - inklusive Interviews mit mehreren unserer IFSH-Rüstungskontrollexpert:innen. Ab sofort in der ZDF-Mediathek zu sehen ➡️ ifsh.de/news-detail/...
Achtung, junge Forschende, Promovierende, Lehrende und Mitarbeitende in Think Tanks und Instituten, die Sicherheitspolitik betreiben: Die Deutsche Atlantische Gesellschaft organisiert im Mai einen Science Slam – einen Forschungswettbewerb zu sicherheitspolitischen Themen. ata-dag.de/security-sla...
Security Slam 2025 · Deutsche Atlantische Gesellschaft e.V.
ata-dag.de
February 6, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Achtung, junge Forschende, Promovierende, Lehrende und Mitarbeitende in Think Tanks und Instituten, die Sicherheitspolitik betreiben: Die Deutsche Atlantische Gesellschaft organisiert im Mai einen Science Slam – einen Forschungswettbewerb zu sicherheitspolitischen Themen. ata-dag.de/security-sla...
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
New volume of Science & Global Security is out. With papers on ICBM silo vulnerability to conventional attack (free access), Arrow 3, hypersonic cruise missiles, fissile material and tritium production in Pakistan and DPRK, and more. See scienceandglobalsecurity.org/editorial/20... and 👇 1/
Nuclear warheads, fissile material and tritium production, missiles and missiles defenses - From the Editors
scienceandglobalsecurity.org
January 26, 2025 at 8:25 PM
New volume of Science & Global Security is out. With papers on ICBM silo vulnerability to conventional attack (free access), Arrow 3, hypersonic cruise missiles, fissile material and tritium production in Pakistan and DPRK, and more. See scienceandglobalsecurity.org/editorial/20... and 👇 1/
IFSH research report on the Chinese missile program by Markus Schiller is now available in English:
ifsh.de/en/publicati...
ifsh.de/en/publicati...
January 21, 2025 at 1:14 PM
IFSH research report on the Chinese missile program by Markus Schiller is now available in English:
ifsh.de/en/publicati...
ifsh.de/en/publicati...
Reposted by Timur Kadyshev
I just read it. Very solid stuff on Arrow 3 and footprints by @kadyshev.bsky.social and @ohnemax.bsky.social, give it a read.
New article by my colleagues @ohnemax.bsky.social and @kadyshev.bsky.social on the utility of Arrow 3 against Russian ICBM, IRBM, MRBM and SRBM.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/8AV5B...
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/8AV5B...
Analyzing the Utility of Arrow 3 for European Missile Defense Using Footprint Calculations
After the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, missile defense systems became more prominent and sought after on a global scale. In 2023, Germany decided to purchase the Israeli Arrow ...
www.tandfonline.com
January 13, 2025 at 11:21 AM
I just read it. Very solid stuff on Arrow 3 and footprints by @kadyshev.bsky.social and @ohnemax.bsky.social, give it a read.
A new article by myself and @ohnemax.bsky.social on the utility of Arrow 3 for European missile defense. And a new tool for footprint calculation and analysis and missile/interceptor modeling. Free access link (limited number of copies):
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/8AV5B...
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/8AV5B...
January 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
A new article by myself and @ohnemax.bsky.social on the utility of Arrow 3 for European missile defense. And a new tool for footprint calculation and analysis and missile/interceptor modeling. Free access link (limited number of copies):
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/8AV5B...
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/8AV5B...