Frank Kuhn
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frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn
@frankkuhn.bsky.social
1.4K followers 990 following 510 posts

Doctoral Researcher @PRIF.org // former Nuclear Scholar @poni.csis.org and Project Coordinator @cntrarmscontrol.org // Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control // Cold War History // Military Technology, Operations and Strategy // Opinions my own // .. more

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frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 7h
“U.S. military aircraft movements through the United Kingdom this week are consistent with preparations for a maritime interdiction operation targeting a Venezuelan-linked oil tanker, according to open-source analysis [...].”
U.S. Special Forces to seize tanker near Europe
According to reports from CBS, U.S. forces are planning to seize the tanker Marinera, formerly known as Bella 1, rather than sink it.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 7h
Keith Payne as written a good article on this: “[R]ational decision-making can underlie behavior that is judged to be ‘unreasonable,’ shocking, and even criminal by an observer because that behavior is so far removed from any shared norms and standards.”
The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction
In most Cold War-style analyses of deterrence, leaders are assumed to be rational and willing to engage in cost-benefit calculations when making policy decisions. Yet, the assumption of rationali...
www.tandfonline.com

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 7h
Important point by @ryanevans.bsky.social on supposedly 'irrational actors’: “[T]he claim of irrationality functioned as an alibi for an expert class unwilling to update its own view of how the world now works, with the post-Cold War era dead and decomposing.“
Trump’s Venezuelan Regime Change: Why Do People Keep Getting Him Wrong on Foreign Policy?
A number of thoughtful observers argued President Donald Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. I was never convinced. On our podcast and in
warontherocks.com

Reposted by Marc Lynch, Kim L. Scheppele, Elizabeth Saunders , and 13 more

abenewman.bsky.social
Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 1d
1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism.
abcnews.go.com/Internationa...
Denmark's PM urges Trump to 'stop the threats' of annexing Greenland
The prime minister of Denmark called on Trump to “stop the threats” of the U.S. annexing Greenland after renewed comments garnered international attention.
abcnews.go.com

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 1d
But the Monroe doctrine was renounced only in 2013, and even then, some argued that this was more of a symbol than substance...
The US Renounces the Monroe Doctrine?
On Monday, John Kerry declared that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Don’t believe him.
thediplomat.com

Reposted by Frank Kühn, Nicolai von Ondarza

jakluge.de
Janis Kluge @jakluge.de · 2d
Whenever Trump does something crazy, people try to rationalize it. Now, they're saying it was Venezuela's "heavy, sour crude" that made him kidnap Maduro. I think the truth is much scarier and less strategic: He simply enjoys the feeling of power and humiliating his opponents.

Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth, Frank Kühn, James Cameron

armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 12d
The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵

Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth, Frank Kühn

sarananni.bsky.social
Sara Nanni @sarananni.bsky.social · 13d
Meine diesjährige Reise ins Baltikum geht dem Ende entgegen. Und es ist mir ein großes Bedürfnis zu sagen, was alle längst wissen sollten.

Russland bereitet sich auf einen Angriff gegen die NATO vor. Der Kreml schlägt alle diplomatischen Angebote aus. Dieses Russland ist unser Feind.

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 14d
“President Donald Trump unveiled plans for a 'Trump-class’ battleship on Monday that will carry nuclear-armed cruise missiles — the first time a surface ship will be armed with such weapons since the Cold War.
Trump’s new ‘Trump-Class’ battleship will carry nuclear weapons
The president wants to outfit new surface ships with weapons that haven't been deployed since the Cold War.
www.politico.com

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 17d
Thanks!

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 17d
The new volume of “On the Horizon: A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation” edited by
@doreenhorschig.bsky.social for @poni.csis.org is finally out! 📘

I take a look at how DoD could use existing elements of the joint targeting process to reduce the risk of unintentional nuclear escalation.

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 17d
Some thoughts on the new U.S. National Security Strategy, including from yours truly. 👇
prif.org PRIF @prif.org · 17d
The new Trump National Security Strategy breaks away from traditional American strategic goals and interests. In an extended #PRIFblog post, several PRIF researchers provide an overview of the strategy and contextualize it, shedding light on notable aspects in short commentaries.
The New US National Security Strategy: A Blog Analysis and Commentaries - PRIF BLOG
On December 4th the White House published its 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS). The document is mandated by law for every incoming administration and serves as a compass for US foreign and securi...
blog.prif.org

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 17d
What‘s the source of these slides if I may ask?

Reposted by Frank Kühn

prif.org
PRIF @prif.org · 17d
The new Trump National Security Strategy breaks away from traditional American strategic goals and interests. In an extended #PRIFblog post, several PRIF researchers provide an overview of the strategy and contextualize it, shedding light on notable aspects in short commentaries.
The New US National Security Strategy: A Blog Analysis and Commentaries - PRIF BLOG
On December 4th the White House published its 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS). The document is mandated by law for every incoming administration and serves as a compass for US foreign and securi...
blog.prif.org

Reposted by Frank Kühn

poni.csis.org
CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues @poni.csis.org · 17d
On the Horizon — written by @csis.org PONI’s 2025 Nuclear Scholars and edited by @doreenhorschig.bsky.social — offers fresh research on nuclear strategy, arms control & emerging tech from tomorrow’s experts.

Read it here: www.csis.org/analysis/hor...
On the Horizon, Vol. 8
The 2025 PONI Nuclear Scholars explore the future of nuclear strategy, offering perspectives from emerging experts on disruptive technology, intensifying geopolitical rivalries, and strategic stabilit...
www.csis.org

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 18d
Musst du dir einen guten Paketshop suchen. Mein Kiosk um die Ecke hat Mo–Sa von 08:00–22:00 Uhr geöffnet, Sonntag von 11:00—20:00 Uhr. Leite meine Pakete direkt nach dort um. Gibt's auf dem Land nur vermutlich nicht. 😜

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 18d
Ich sage nur „Abnutzungskrieg“. 😅

Reposted by Frank Kühn

lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social
Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 18d
"Für Europa kann es nur einen Weg nach vorne geben. Autonomie und eine Politik, die Amerika als das behandelt, was es niemals sein wollte: Eine Großmacht wie jede andere."

Letzte Meldung vor Weihnachten von @tobiaspfella.bsky.social und mir.
www.ipg-journal.de/rubriken/aus...
Wer glaubt an den Weihnachtsmann?
Die USA wandeln sich vom liberalen Hegemon zur revisionistischen Großmacht. Wer das ignoriert, lebt in einer Traumwelt.
www.ipg-journal.de

Reposted by Frank Kühn

coldwarpod.bsky.social
Cold War Conversations Podcast @coldwarpod.bsky.social · 19d
Fascinating 1988 documentary showing Warsaw Pact officers observing NATO exercises among many other nuggets. youtu.be/PucaA4kxmBs?...
Frontline/TIME: The Defense of Europe (1988)
YouTube video by ScanRange
youtu.be

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
Yes this is true. But the argument is still very present in contemporary discourse, especially in German and even more so after the U.S.–German announcement on the episodic long-range fires deployment.

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
This does not mean that there are no risks involved in employing Dark Eagle, but the alleged counterforce potential is not one of them. Arms control experts should focus more on military strategy and acquire basic knowledge of ballistics before making claims that are not backed by evidence. 8/8.
No Quick Solutions: A Different Approach to Hypersonic Arms Control
The hypersonic arms race is in full swing: Countries around the world are investing staggering amounts of money into hypersonic weapons. And these are no
warontherocks.com

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
Yet, even though strikes against early-warning radars are possible, Dark Eagle is more likely to be used for counter-anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) purposes. In a war with Russia, it would serve as a “door kicker” to take down 🇷🇺 air defense radars and enable a more permissive strike campaign. 7/

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
In other words, and contrary to what many analysts have suggested, Dark Eagle would be completely unsuitable for a conventional counterforce campaign. The only targets that could be destroyed are Russian ballistic missile early warning radars (BMEWRs) and over-the-horizon (OTH) radars. 6/

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
If true, this would have significant implications for the widespread assertion that Dark Eagle would alter the strategic nuclear balance between Russia 🇷🇺 and the United States 🇺🇸. Although many Russian nuclear targets are within range, Dark Eagle cannot destroy them because they are hardened. 5/

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
This type of munition generally cannot destroy hard targets, let alone ICBM silos. As @frhoffmann.bsky.social told me, it may not even be able to destroy lightly armored mobile ICBM launchers. 4/

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
Furthermore, the officer stated that the warhead‘s purpose is to release its projectiles and that it can affect an area approximately the size of the parking lot where they were standing. This means that the warhead is essentially a cluster munition without explosive bomblets. 3/

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
According to an officer at the event, the warhead is under 30 pounds. As @aviationintel.bsky.social writes, this is “relatively tiny for a long-range weapon – smaller in size than what’s found on an AIM-120 air-to-air missile [...].” Just for comparison, the JASSM-ER warhead is almost 1,000 lbs. 2/
JASSM / JASSM ER | Missile Threat
The JASSM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) is a conventional, stealthy, air-launched ground attack cruise missile designed for the U.S. Air Force and international partners. An extended range v...
missilethreat.csis.org

Reposted by James Cameron

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
Some new, interesting details about the Dark Eagle #hypersonic missile‘s warhead strongly suggest that it can only destroy soft targets, such as radar sites, but not hard targets, such as intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos or even mobile ICBM launchers. 🧵 1/
New Dark Eagle Hypersonic Weapon Details Emerge
Hegseth's visit to Redstone Arsenal provided new disclosures on Dark Eagle's range and its small warhead.
www.twz.com

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 20d
LRF deployment to 🇪🇺 on track?

“The U.S. Army this fall activated an artillery battalion in New York that is intended to give commanders in Europe new options for long-range strikes and deterrence. [...] It remains unknown, however, if — or when — soldiers and equipment will be deployed overseas.”
US Army launches artillery battalion focused on Europe deterrence
The U.S. Army this fall activated an artillery battalion in New York that is intended to give commanders in Europe new options for long-range strikes.
www.defensenews.com

frankkuhn.bsky.social
Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 22d
Solche Drohnen wären da sicherlich geeignet.
a fighter jet is sitting on a runway with a city in the background .
ALT: a fighter jet is sitting on a runway with a city in the background .
media.tenor.com