Julius Kölzer
@juliusk.bsky.social
Doctoral Researcher in Political Science @dynamics.bsky.social & Research Associate @hertieschool.bsky.social | Sometimes working at Zeit Online | Interested in political geography, inequality and elections.
Pinned
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
🔔 Neues Working Paper 🔔
Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?
Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.
Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻
Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?
Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.
Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻
🆕Working Paper🚨
Training or Retiring? How Labor Markets Adjust to Trade and Technology Shocks📒
w/ A.Bertermann, @dauthecon.bsky.social & @suedekum.bsky.social
🤖 Robots ➡️ ⬆️training & ⬆️early retirement
🌏 Imports ➡️ ⬇️training & ⬆️early r.
🌎 Exports ➡️ ⬆️training & ⬇️e.r.
www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...
🧵1/9
Training or Retiring? How Labor Markets Adjust to Trade and Technology Shocks📒
w/ A.Bertermann, @dauthecon.bsky.social & @suedekum.bsky.social
🤖 Robots ➡️ ⬆️training & ⬆️early retirement
🌏 Imports ➡️ ⬇️training & ⬆️early r.
🌎 Exports ➡️ ⬆️training & ⬇️e.r.
www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...
🧵1/9
November 11, 2025 at 6:42 AM
🔔 Neues Working Paper 🔔
Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?
Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.
Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻
Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?
Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.
Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project
You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna!
⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025
wratil.eu/files/MULTIR...
1/4 🧵
You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna!
⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025
wratil.eu/files/MULTIR...
1/4 🧵
November 10, 2025 at 6:50 AM
🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project
You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna!
⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025
wratil.eu/files/MULTIR...
1/4 🧵
You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna!
⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025
wratil.eu/files/MULTIR...
1/4 🧵
new AfD vote share predictor just dropped
This will spark some great papers: an open digital dataset of roads in the Roman Empire
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
‘Google Maps’ for Roman roads reveals vast extent of ancient network
A high-resolution digital map nearly doubles the known length of the ancient road network.
www.nature.com
November 9, 2025 at 5:37 PM
new AfD vote share predictor just dropped
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
On Thursday, I was at @hertieschool.bsky.social to discuss how legacies of autocratic state-building derailed Weimar democracy.
Thank you to @ariannaornaghi.bsky.social, @markkayser.bsky.social and the entire PE community for your engagement, feedback, and probing questions!
Thank you to @ariannaornaghi.bsky.social, @markkayser.bsky.social and the entire PE community for your engagement, feedback, and probing questions!
November 8, 2025 at 3:25 PM
On Thursday, I was at @hertieschool.bsky.social to discuss how legacies of autocratic state-building derailed Weimar democracy.
Thank you to @ariannaornaghi.bsky.social, @markkayser.bsky.social and the entire PE community for your engagement, feedback, and probing questions!
Thank you to @ariannaornaghi.bsky.social, @markkayser.bsky.social and the entire PE community for your engagement, feedback, and probing questions!
Für jeden bescheuerten Take zum Zeit-Selbstpositionstest einen Shot trinken
November 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Für jeden bescheuerten Take zum Zeit-Selbstpositionstest einen Shot trinken
- Reisezug in Crottendorf kurz vor der Betriebseinstellung (1996) -
November 7, 2025 at 6:37 PM
- Reisezug in Crottendorf kurz vor der Betriebseinstellung (1996) -
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY!
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org
November 7, 2025 at 12:04 PM
‼️Last chance to submit your paper or panel proposal to EPSS 2026 conference in Belfast is TODAY!
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Don’t miss out - it will be full of great political science and fun social events! 👩🏫🥳
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
regressions are haunting me in the grocery store
November 7, 2025 at 11:18 AM
regressions are haunting me in the grocery store
I can't participate in the 30-day map challenge because I only know how to make maps with AfD vote shares (the only variable I know and the most important variable on this planet)
November 6, 2025 at 9:49 PM
I can't participate in the 30-day map challenge because I only know how to make maps with AfD vote shares (the only variable I know and the most important variable on this planet)
Wer schreibt das Abstract so spät durch Nacht und Wind
November 6, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Wer schreibt das Abstract so spät durch Nacht und Wind
Man kann den Methodikkasten am Ende eines Artikels tatsächlich auch lesen 🤞
Ich lachte hart: die Grünen sind bei denen weiter links als die Linke. Die sind auch nur noch drei Ausgaben davon entfernt, dass Elron sie empfiehlt. #Zeid
/o\
/o\
November 6, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Man kann den Methodikkasten am Ende eines Artikels tatsächlich auch lesen 🤞
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
"Es herrscht die falsche Annahme, dass viele Wähler, die früher Mitte-rechts-Parteien gewählt haben, im Herzen noch immer Mitte-rechts sind. Meine Arbeit legt aber nahe, dass diese Menschen schon vorher extrem rechts gedacht haben"
www.zeit.de/politik/2025...
www.zeit.de/politik/2025...
Vicente Valentim: "Angela Merkel lag richtig"
Haben Menschen früher rechter gedacht, als sie gewählt haben? Der Forscher Vicente Valentim sagt, dass wir eine Ursache für den Erfolg extrem rechter Parteien übersehen.
www.zeit.de
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
"Es herrscht die falsche Annahme, dass viele Wähler, die früher Mitte-rechts-Parteien gewählt haben, im Herzen noch immer Mitte-rechts sind. Meine Arbeit legt aber nahe, dass diese Menschen schon vorher extrem rechts gedacht haben"
www.zeit.de/politik/2025...
www.zeit.de/politik/2025...
The patterns by neighborhood rent look quite different, and the relationship with education level is also more nuanced. A small 3% gap to Cuomo in precincts with incomes above $200,000 indicates that Mamdani performed relatively well in these areas.
November 6, 2025 at 8:25 AM
The patterns by neighborhood rent look quite different, and the relationship with education level is also more nuanced. A small 3% gap to Cuomo in precincts with incomes above $200,000 indicates that Mamdani performed relatively well in these areas.
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Share widely with your students in Switzerland 🇨🇭thinking about a PhD @eui-eu.bsky.social
𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET
@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.
👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET
@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.
👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
PhD Prep Talk: Switzerland
Meet an EUI Researcher and alumnus from your country!
www.eui.eu
November 5, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Share widely with your students in Switzerland 🇨🇭thinking about a PhD @eui-eu.bsky.social
𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET
@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.
👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
𝗢𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗘𝗨𝗜 𝗣𝗵𝗗 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗸 🇨🇭
21 Nov 2025 | 2:30pm CET
@alissasiara.bsky.social introduces the program & life at EUI, I share my experience, and we answer your questions.
👉 Register: www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
Dear UK politics people, are there any current constituency-level MRP estimates that are freely available and can be easily downloaded?
November 5, 2025 at 12:07 PM
Dear UK politics people, are there any current constituency-level MRP estimates that are freely available and can be easily downloaded?
Not looking forward to rightfully hopeful but still ambiguous takes on what the success of a progressive mayoral candidate in a liberal and deep-blue US metropolis tells progressive parties about how to defeat the far right in Europe’s multiparty systems
November 5, 2025 at 6:26 AM
Not looking forward to rightfully hopeful but still ambiguous takes on what the success of a progressive mayoral candidate in a liberal and deep-blue US metropolis tells progressive parties about how to defeat the far right in Europe’s multiparty systems
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
You have to be careful about treating ordinal variables such as the IMD as cardinal, but these results are broadly in line with lots of stuff we've seen suggesting that the 'left behind' story of rightwing populism is substantially incomplete at best.
While support for Reform UK is often noted to be higher in “left-behind” areas where deprivation is thought to be more pronounced, the correlation between their vote share and different deprivation measures remains rather weak. Only deprivation in education shows a somewhat stronger relationship.
November 4, 2025 at 5:37 PM
You have to be careful about treating ordinal variables such as the IMD as cardinal, but these results are broadly in line with lots of stuff we've seen suggesting that the 'left behind' story of rightwing populism is substantially incomplete at best.
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Thanks! Here you go: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Thanks! Here you go: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Worth reading this whole thread. The popular narrative of Reform surge being driven by desperation in the face of deprivation is little more than a useful myth. It’s mostly just the same old tories getting nastier and more openly racist
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Worth reading this whole thread. The popular narrative of Reform surge being driven by desperation in the face of deprivation is little more than a useful myth. It’s mostly just the same old tories getting nastier and more openly racist
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Powerthread
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Powerthread
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Great thread from @juliusk.bsky.social revealing interesting patterns using the new English Indices of Deprivation (including how they relate to voting behaviour)!
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 8:55 AM
Great thread from @juliusk.bsky.social revealing interesting patterns using the new English Indices of Deprivation (including how they relate to voting behaviour)!
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
great analysis!
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 9:27 AM
great analysis!
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Nice analysis - similar conclusion to research with @jwfurlong.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social. We find the deprivation gradient on Labour support weakened a bit in 2024 - might reflect weakening support in some cities with a lot of deprivation. But still quite strong!
November 3, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Nice analysis - similar conclusion to research with @jwfurlong.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social. We find the deprivation gradient on Labour support weakened a bit in 2024 - might reflect weakening support in some cities with a lot of deprivation. But still quite strong!
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵