Julius Kölzer
@juliusk.bsky.social
Doctoral Researcher in Political Science @dynamics.bsky.social & Research Associate @hertieschool.bsky.social | Sometimes working at Zeit Online | Interested in political geography, inequality and elections.
- Reisezug in Crottendorf kurz vor der Betriebseinstellung (1996) -
November 7, 2025 at 6:37 PM
- Reisezug in Crottendorf kurz vor der Betriebseinstellung (1996) -
regressions are haunting me in the grocery store
November 7, 2025 at 11:18 AM
regressions are haunting me in the grocery store
The patterns by neighborhood rent look quite different, and the relationship with education level is also more nuanced. A small 3% gap to Cuomo in precincts with incomes above $200,000 indicates that Mamdani performed relatively well in these areas.
November 6, 2025 at 8:25 AM
The patterns by neighborhood rent look quite different, and the relationship with education level is also more nuanced. A small 3% gap to Cuomo in precincts with incomes above $200,000 indicates that Mamdani performed relatively well in these areas.
Dass es in NYC republikanische Bürgermeister gab, ist, denke ich, einem weirden Parteiestablishment und absurd viel Geld geschuldet. In allen sonstigen Wahlen ist die Stadt natürlich deutlich eher links (auch bei Einstellungen I guess).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 5, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Dass es in NYC republikanische Bürgermeister gab, ist, denke ich, einem weirden Parteiestablishment und absurd viel Geld geschuldet. In allen sonstigen Wahlen ist die Stadt natürlich deutlich eher links (auch bei Einstellungen I guess).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
If the election were held today, these patterns for the Liberal Democrats look rather different. A similar image emerges for the Green Party, with largely no clear correlation between deprivation and vote share (again likely attributable to the forces of the UK’s electoral system).
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
If the election were held today, these patterns for the Liberal Democrats look rather different. A similar image emerges for the Green Party, with largely no clear correlation between deprivation and vote share (again likely attributable to the forces of the UK’s electoral system).
The Lib Dems are generally more successful in areas with low deprivation, as shown by the outliers in the top right. However, the overall correlation is weak, as the party records low support in many seats, independent of their deprivation rank (reflecting the dynamics of the UK’s electoral system).
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
The Lib Dems are generally more successful in areas with low deprivation, as shown by the outliers in the top right. However, the overall correlation is weak, as the party records low support in many seats, independent of their deprivation rank (reflecting the dynamics of the UK’s electoral system).
And indeed, just using basic measures of constituency-level education and qualification levels appears to be a stronger predictor of Reform UK’s 2024 vote share than more direct measures of socio-economic deprivation.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
And indeed, just using basic measures of constituency-level education and qualification levels appears to be a stronger predictor of Reform UK’s 2024 vote share than more direct measures of socio-economic deprivation.
While support for Reform UK is often noted to be higher in “left-behind” areas where deprivation is thought to be more pronounced, the correlation between their vote share and different deprivation measures remains rather weak. Only deprivation in education shows a somewhat stronger relationship.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
While support for Reform UK is often noted to be higher in “left-behind” areas where deprivation is thought to be more pronounced, the correlation between their vote share and different deprivation measures remains rather weak. Only deprivation in education shows a somewhat stronger relationship.
As expected, the geographical support patterns of the Conservatives show a near opposite image. Their vote share is significantly higher in areas with lower levels of income and employment deprivation. The same is true for deprivation in health risks and local exposure to crime.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
As expected, the geographical support patterns of the Conservatives show a near opposite image. Their vote share is significantly higher in areas with lower levels of income and employment deprivation. The same is true for deprivation in health risks and local exposure to crime.
Interestingly, the slope for local deprivation in educational attainment and skills is noticeably weaker than for income and employment deprivation.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Interestingly, the slope for local deprivation in educational attainment and skills is noticeably weaker than for income and employment deprivation.
Even though Labour’s geographic support base is often described as shifting toward more urban, affluent, highly educated constituencies, its vote share remains clearly higher in more deprived areas. Interestingly, there is a slight positive correlation with fewer barriers to housing and services.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Even though Labour’s geographic support base is often described as shifting toward more urban, affluent, highly educated constituencies, its vote share remains clearly higher in more deprived areas. Interestingly, there is a slight positive correlation with fewer barriers to housing and services.
The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.
How do these various deprivation indices relate to voting behaviour in the last UK General Election? To explore this, I merged data constituency-level vote shares in 2024 with constituency-level ranks across the different deprivation indices. Again, a lower rank reflects greater deprivation levels.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
How do these various deprivation indices relate to voting behaviour in the last UK General Election? To explore this, I merged data constituency-level vote shares in 2024 with constituency-level ranks across the different deprivation indices. Again, a lower rank reflects greater deprivation levels.
Even though the various dimensions of deprivation are often strongly correlated, interesting differences remain. For example, some constituencies are more deprived in terms of income and employment (lower bars) but less deprived when it comes to barriers to housing and services (higher bars).
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Even though the various dimensions of deprivation are often strongly correlated, interesting differences remain. For example, some constituencies are more deprived in terms of income and employment (lower bars) but less deprived when it comes to barriers to housing and services (higher bars).
The same rank-based calculations can be applied not only to the overall Index of Multiple Deprivation but also to its individual sub-domains for each constituency. As the maps show, some constituencies rank higher or lower depending on the specific type of deprivation measured.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
The same rank-based calculations can be applied not only to the overall Index of Multiple Deprivation but also to its individual sub-domains for each constituency. As the maps show, some constituencies rank higher or lower depending on the specific type of deprivation measured.
As one would expect, greater deprivation (shown in darker colours) is concentrated in former industrial constituencies across northern England and in some coastal seats. High deprivation is also visible in some neighbourhoods of London and midland cities like Leeds or Birmingham.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
As one would expect, greater deprivation (shown in darker colours) is concentrated in former industrial constituencies across northern England and in some coastal seats. High deprivation is also visible in some neighbourhoods of London and midland cities like Leeds or Birmingham.
While constituency-level data for the deprivation indices isn’t yet available, it can be aggregated from the LSOA level. This allows us to calculate average ranks for all 543 English constituencies across the different deprivation domains (here shown for the overall index of multiple deprivation).
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
While constituency-level data for the deprivation indices isn’t yet available, it can be aggregated from the LSOA level. This allows us to calculate average ranks for all 543 English constituencies across the different deprivation domains (here shown for the overall index of multiple deprivation).
The data is primarily published at the small-area level of Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs). Across the different indices, each area has a deprivation score used to produce a national rank, from 1 (most deprived) to 33,755 (least deprived), with darker colours indicating higher deprivation.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
The data is primarily published at the small-area level of Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs). Across the different indices, each area has a deprivation score used to produce a national rank, from 1 (most deprived) to 33,755 (least deprived), with darker colours indicating higher deprivation.
Since the 1970s, the UK government has produced local measures of deprivation in England. The main measure, the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), combines different dimensions of deprivation into a single score, with separate indices available for individual domains such as income or crime.
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Since the 1970s, the UK government has produced local measures of deprivation in England. The main measure, the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), combines different dimensions of deprivation into a single score, with separate indices available for individual domains such as income or crime.
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
Lass mich raten: "Trick or Treat: Children’s Halloween Door-Knocking as a Strategy of Door-to-Door Canvassing" 🎃
November 1, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Lass mich raten: "Trick or Treat: Children’s Halloween Door-Knocking as a Strategy of Door-to-Door Canvassing" 🎃
New Social Contract turning into No Seats Claimed
October 29, 2025 at 8:24 PM
New Social Contract turning into No Seats Claimed
