Jonathan Bernstein
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
Good Politics/Bad Politics - Subscribe! https://goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/ Also I root for the Giants. The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2024.
That thing when you write a way too long item that everyone is going to hate, and the point you might have been able to convince people about is going to get lost thanks to the length.
Oh well.
Oh well.
November 11, 2025 at 6:29 AM
That thing when you write a way too long item that everyone is going to hate, and the point you might have been able to convince people about is going to get lost thanks to the length.
Oh well.
Oh well.
I feel so sorry for those of you who regularly teach the exec branch policy-making process.
Also for everyone who lives in a place where this is the policy-making process.
Also for everyone who lives in a place where this is the policy-making process.
White House officials are furious with Bill Pulte, the Federal Housing Finance Agency director, who talked Trump into suggesting a 50-year mortgage plan.
The White House was blindsided by the idea and is now dealing with a furious backlash from conservative allies, business leaders and lawmakers.
The White House was blindsided by the idea and is now dealing with a furious backlash from conservative allies, business leaders and lawmakers.
‘Sold POTUS a bill of goods’: WH furious with Pulte over 50-year mortgage
The White House was blindsided by the idea and is now dealing with a furious backlash from conservative allies, business leaders and lawmakers.
www.politico.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:20 AM
I feel so sorry for those of you who regularly teach the exec branch policy-making process.
Also for everyone who lives in a place where this is the policy-making process.
Also for everyone who lives in a place where this is the policy-making process.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
okay, but hear me out: What if we put health insurance *on the blockchain?*
November 11, 2025 at 1:06 AM
okay, but hear me out: What if we put health insurance *on the blockchain?*
Not even Brian likes haggling, and he may have been the messiah. Or not.
Yeah, people will be so much happier when they negotiate their own insurance because folks definitely have enough information to navigate that process without getting fleeced. And we all famously love negotiating prices - that’s why everyone loves used car salespeople.
Trump: "I want the money to go into an account for people where they buy their own health insurance. It's so good. The insurance will be better. It'll cost less. Everybody is gonna be happy. They're gonna feel like entrepreneurs. They're actually able to go out & negotiate their own insurance"
November 11, 2025 at 1:58 AM
Not even Brian likes haggling, and he may have been the messiah. Or not.
One more thing we can perhaps attribute to Nancy Pelosi: The widespread assumption that congressional leaders normally absolutely control the votes of their caucus/conference members.
(She didn't either; she was just amazingly good at her job so it looked that way).
(She didn't either; she was just amazingly good at her job so it looked that way).
November 10, 2025 at 10:40 PM
One more thing we can perhaps attribute to Nancy Pelosi: The widespread assumption that congressional leaders normally absolutely control the votes of their caucus/conference members.
(She didn't either; she was just amazingly good at her job so it looked that way).
(She didn't either; she was just amazingly good at her job so it looked that way).
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
As the ~discourse~ seems to bend interminably towards Republicans trying to figure out how they can (further) HDHP-ify ACA coverage, it's worth revisiting what is probably our best (most rigorous) study on the effect of deductibles in health insurance.
academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
November 10, 2025 at 9:51 PM
As the ~discourse~ seems to bend interminably towards Republicans trying to figure out how they can (further) HDHP-ify ACA coverage, it's worth revisiting what is probably our best (most rigorous) study on the effect of deductibles in health insurance.
academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
Seriously have no idea how you can host a major international sports even under these circumstances.
Wow: Per Hamdi's legal team, his only charge was a visa overstay — after Trump revoked his visa.
Despite DHS tweeting that Hamdi supported terrorism, they never charged him with any criminality.
In other words: Trump revoked a journalist's visa, so agents could arrest him for overstaying his visa.
Despite DHS tweeting that Hamdi supported terrorism, they never charged him with any criminality.
In other words: Trump revoked a journalist's visa, so agents could arrest him for overstaying his visa.
NEW: British journalist Sami Hamdi is being released from US detention.
Trump administration agents detained him two weeks ago at the San Francisco airport — hours after he addressed an event, where he urged US leaders to take an “America First” approach rather than “Israel First.”
Trump administration agents detained him two weeks ago at the San Francisco airport — hours after he addressed an event, where he urged US leaders to take an “America First” approach rather than “Israel First.”
November 10, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Seriously have no idea how you can host a major international sports even under these circumstances.
So...the plan is to restrict things one by one as scandals break out and thereby find the point where players aren't willing to tank and/or are willing to be more careful about it?
NEW YORK (AP) — Major League Baseball, sportsbooks say they will limit bets on individual pitches in response to pitch rigging scandal.
November 10, 2025 at 9:48 PM
So...the plan is to restrict things one by one as scandals break out and thereby find the point where players aren't willing to tank and/or are willing to be more careful about it?
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
This is neither here nor there, but the distinction between a FSA and a HSA is actually pretty monumental — FSAs are use-it-or-lose-it, HSAs are not — and I don't think we actually know which one Trump(/Rick Scott/Bill Cassidy) is talking about in his new concepts of a plan
November 10, 2025 at 9:14 PM
This is neither here nor there, but the distinction between a FSA and a HSA is actually pretty monumental — FSAs are use-it-or-lose-it, HSAs are not — and I don't think we actually know which one Trump(/Rick Scott/Bill Cassidy) is talking about in his new concepts of a plan
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Also, your local Dem Party needs to know your registration so they can mobilize you!
Don't exit, use your voice and get involved with your county party. ITs much easier to influence and they desperately need people who can work to change things.
Don't exit, use your voice and get involved with your county party. ITs much easier to influence and they desperately need people who can work to change things.
Hey, a lot of people are talking about changing affiliation from Democratic to Independent.
Let me tell you why you shouldn’t do that in Colorado.
One of the main ways to get a primary challenge candidate on a ballot is to caucus for your party. You need to be registered as a Dem to caucus.
Let me tell you why you shouldn’t do that in Colorado.
One of the main ways to get a primary challenge candidate on a ballot is to caucus for your party. You need to be registered as a Dem to caucus.
November 10, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Also, your local Dem Party needs to know your registration so they can mobilize you!
Don't exit, use your voice and get involved with your county party. ITs much easier to influence and they desperately need people who can work to change things.
Don't exit, use your voice and get involved with your county party. ITs much easier to influence and they desperately need people who can work to change things.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.
November 10, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Definitely agree! bsky.app/profile/owen...
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
November 10, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Definitely agree! bsky.app/profile/owen...
Off-year elections shouldn't be thought of as predictions of midterms *because things can change a lot in a year.* What they are useful for is a reality check for the other evidence of what's happening now, and the results were consistent with the polls and with the huge protests.
What sort of midterms do the Democrats' New Jersey and Virginia midterms point to? I had a look using historic results and wound up with a central estimate of D+6 and a confidence interval from R+5 to D+16. Not exactly conclusive! owenwinter.co.uk/2025/11/10/d...
November 10, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Off-year elections shouldn't be thought of as predictions of midterms *because things can change a lot in a year.* What they are useful for is a reality check for the other evidence of what's happening now, and the results were consistent with the polls and with the huge protests.
One of the cool things about being Trump opposition is that no matter how badly you seem to have screwed up, perceived or real, he's guaranteed to (1) change the topic, and (2) unify everyone against him within a couple of days. A week tops. Often within a few hours.
November 10, 2025 at 7:52 PM
One of the cool things about being Trump opposition is that no matter how badly you seem to have screwed up, perceived or real, he's guaranteed to (1) change the topic, and (2) unify everyone against him within a couple of days. A week tops. Often within a few hours.
Ugh I botched this...right, not wrong. I think they expect future elections. Hey, it's been a long week.
For what it's worth, I don't think that the cynical "they don't think there will ever be another election" is wrong. My guess is that Trump himself is oblivious to it...and the ideologues believe this is their one and only chance to get policy wins and they want to fully exploit it no matter what.
November 10, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Ugh I botched this...right, not wrong. I think they expect future elections. Hey, it's been a long week.
Really important point here about Trump and the administration simply not caring about his own popularity. It's a real, if screwy, negotiating edge - but (obviously!) a major electoral liability.
One way to look at the shutdown deal: Tiny Tim is dying, and Dems were negotiating with Scrooge (without ghostly assistance). My thoughts: open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...
Open Wide
Senate Democrats agree to shut down the shutdown.
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Really important point here about Trump and the administration simply not caring about his own popularity. It's a real, if screwy, negotiating edge - but (obviously!) a major electoral liability.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
BTW, this is a really important message. For better or for worse, there's only one vehicle for effective opposition to democratic backsliding in this country, and that's the Democratic Party.
I have always been a Democrat and I always will be. To walk away from them now is exactly what Republicans want. After last week's election they are worried. Trump is terrified. Show them we are disappointed but united, and that they have a reason to be worried. It will make them very nervous.
November 10, 2025 at 3:01 PM
BTW, this is a really important message. For better or for worse, there's only one vehicle for effective opposition to democratic backsliding in this country, and that's the Democratic Party.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
5) Dems showed (a) it's possible to get something out of "shutting down the government" despite what the pundits said, and (b) that they could hold together for 40 days. It's not a policy win, but it changes expectations for what they can do in the future, strengthening their negotiating position.
November 10, 2025 at 1:53 PM
5) Dems showed (a) it's possible to get something out of "shutting down the government" despite what the pundits said, and (b) that they could hold together for 40 days. It's not a policy win, but it changes expectations for what they can do in the future, strengthening their negotiating position.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
4) Senate Dems did get something out of the negotiations w/r/t power of the purse. They protected the legislative branch, notably GAO. But it's something they already had that was under threat, not something they won. Same is true with the RIFs. Same is true with SNAP.
November 10, 2025 at 1:51 PM
4) Senate Dems did get something out of the negotiations w/r/t power of the purse. They protected the legislative branch, notably GAO. But it's something they already had that was under threat, not something they won. Same is true with the RIFs. Same is true with SNAP.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
The certainty with which some of my favorite commentators have explained the Dem cave, Schumer's calculations, and the substitutability of Dem votes is uncanny.
November 10, 2025 at 1:58 PM
The certainty with which some of my favorite commentators have explained the Dem cave, Schumer's calculations, and the substitutability of Dem votes is uncanny.
Perhaps I missed it before but very interesting to see that he's labeled the shutdown a "Hoax" - further confirming that Trump defines "hoax" as something he doesn't like, or something generally bad, or perhaps any opposition to him - not in any way related to the dictionary definition of "hoax."
Trump in lengthy new post says he will reward air traffic controllers who have worked through the shutdown, punish those who took time off.
November 10, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Perhaps I missed it before but very interesting to see that he's labeled the shutdown a "Hoax" - further confirming that Trump defines "hoax" as something he doesn't like, or something generally bad, or perhaps any opposition to him - not in any way related to the dictionary definition of "hoax."
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
If he thinks that bad, wait til he sees how few people file claims for auto, fire, and flood insurance.
Tell me you don’t understand risk pools without telling me you don’t understand risk pools
November 10, 2025 at 3:24 PM
If he thinks that bad, wait til he sees how few people file claims for auto, fire, and flood insurance.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
Leaders don't have this kind of power. They do not direct senators' votes. They can pressure or persuade but this notion Schumer can block senators from breaking ranks is pure myth.
The coordinated nature of this—none are facing voters in 2026—means that either Schumer approved it or failed in his job as Senate Majority Leader to stop it.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
Dems voting "no" get zero credit until they demand a change in leadership. Schumer out as Leader, Durbin out as Whip.
so currently defectors are:
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
Kaine (2030)
Shaheen (Retiring)
Hasan (2028)
Fetterman (2028)
Durbin (Retiring)
CCM (2028)
Rosen (2030)
King (2030)
November 10, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Leaders don't have this kind of power. They do not direct senators' votes. They can pressure or persuade but this notion Schumer can block senators from breaking ranks is pure myth.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
MSNBC reported Schumer's office felt that the longer that shutdown went on, the more likely it was that people would start to blame the Dems.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
November 10, 2025 at 1:28 PM
No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.
Reposted by Jonathan Bernstein
i'm basically with you on this. the optics are bad, the power dynamic is bad, but it's bad either way. the problems go much deeper than "caving" - primarying people is fun but not a structural solution to having elected a party that doesn't want to live in a society or a republic
November 10, 2025 at 5:51 AM
i'm basically with you on this. the optics are bad, the power dynamic is bad, but it's bad either way. the problems go much deeper than "caving" - primarying people is fun but not a structural solution to having elected a party that doesn't want to live in a society or a republic