Joel Williams
@jaowilliams74.bsky.social
UK Head of Methods at Verian, but not entirely defined by that. Tend to tangent.
Another horrific LFC result but the TNT commentary is like watching it with a pair of witless social media trolls, lapping up the pain.
November 26, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Another horrific LFC result but the TNT commentary is like watching it with a pair of witless social media trolls, lapping up the pain.
Even for gamers, it matters because there is a chunk of Reform vote-intenders who want less immigration and/or a general shake up of government but don't 'love' Farage and don't like open racism. In a FPTP system, their importance may be outsized relative to their numbers.
All the supposedly progressive people saying 'Nigel Farage's racism doesn't matter. His fans love it'.
It matters whether the leader of the party leading all the opinion polls is an outright racist. It matters if he called black people 'wogs' and said 'gas them' to Jews. Not everything is a game
It matters whether the leader of the party leading all the opinion polls is an outright racist. It matters if he called black people 'wogs' and said 'gas them' to Jews. Not everything is a game
November 25, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Even for gamers, it matters because there is a chunk of Reform vote-intenders who want less immigration and/or a general shake up of government but don't 'love' Farage and don't like open racism. In a FPTP system, their importance may be outsized relative to their numbers.
It's like when we'd do both quantitative and qualitative research of a topic. It was always the quotes, not the numbers that landed. X is all quotes.
Sorry to keep banging on about it but it's literally *they are on Twitter and think it's the majority view*
This is pretty striking and makes me wonder exactly what Labour have been up to in making policy seemingly in response to / fear of the former rather than the middle group.
November 24, 2025 at 8:10 AM
It's like when we'd do both quantitative and qualitative research of a topic. It was always the quotes, not the numbers that landed. X is all quotes.
Always like these from @benansell.bsky.social . Shows what you can do with - essentially - descriptive statistics and clear graphs. Even the factor analysis is just a data reduction tool, rather than something to stick in a scary structural equation model.
It's Friday afternoon, so who wouldn't want to enter the weekend with one more round of my patented bubble plots of British politics? In this final (one hopes) of my mini-series I look at who the 'odd ones out' of British politics are. Who is 'out of touch' with the rest of the public. Let's see 1/n
November 21, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Always like these from @benansell.bsky.social . Shows what you can do with - essentially - descriptive statistics and clear graphs. Even the factor analysis is just a data reduction tool, rather than something to stick in a scary structural equation model.
Is my innate scepticism of survey samples of young people showing through?
2/🧵 New piece with @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social in @NewRepublic: We analyzed 60,000+ respondents in the 2024 Cooperative Election Study. Gen Z has the lowest racial resentment of any generation. The generational shift overwhelms the education divide that supposedly defines modern politics.
The Shocking Truth About Gen Z Voters Is That They’re Pretty Great
Stop panicking: They are the most progressive generation ever, especially on race. If that surprises you, you’ve been listening to the wrong story.
newrepublic.com
November 15, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Is my innate scepticism of survey samples of young people showing through?
And the journalists reporting all this stuff get *hugely* upset when their sources u-turn on them. To me, such 'internal' u-turns are what I would expect from any complicated policy making process.
The issue is less the reporting than the volume of comment & analysis dedicated to every breath of speculation - esp. as we'll leap straight after the budget to "what does this mean for the polls/the next budget".It gets hard to differentiate what might happen from what did happen. That's a problem.
November 14, 2025 at 1:38 PM
And the journalists reporting all this stuff get *hugely* upset when their sources u-turn on them. To me, such 'internal' u-turns are what I would expect from any complicated policy making process.
This is rather Modern Soviet.
Message to all faculty: your expertise is no longer trusted or valued at this so-called “university.”
November 14, 2025 at 1:24 PM
This is rather Modern Soviet.
£11 for a pint!! I sigh when paying £7.
Trump's $1bn lawsuit could cost every BBC licence payer £33.27—the equivalent of about three pints in London, or two days of health insurance for the average American
November 11, 2025 at 10:43 PM
£11 for a pint!! I sigh when paying £7.
Well that's the last straw... oh, wrong ICE.
ICE vehicles waste a whopping 80% of the energy in their fuel. Electric vehicles are propelled by entirely different mechanisms. Energy enters the vehicle as electricity, which directly powers the drivetrain: EVs need not convert one form of energy to another resulting in much higher efficiency.
November 9, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Well that's the last straw... oh, wrong ICE.
My recollection of the NME position of that time was that *all* popular rock bands of the 70s were shite. And anyone who thought otherwise was that worst of things: a 'muso'.
I (age 49) feel quite seen by this. Also a specific cultural element - was inspired by that particular post to stick 'Rumours' on in the car today and my Dutch wife (a mere 48) was just very straight-forwardly "oh, Fleetwood Mac, they're really great", as though NME had never existed.
November 9, 2025 at 7:42 PM
My recollection of the NME position of that time was that *all* popular rock bands of the 70s were shite. And anyone who thought otherwise was that worst of things: a 'muso'.
Reposted by Joel Williams
I'm always quite sceptical of claims like this. The main barrier to data-led campaigns in Britain is the availability of data on registered voters, not the tech to analyse it
October 14, 2025 at 8:23 AM
I'm always quite sceptical of claims like this. The main barrier to data-led campaigns in Britain is the availability of data on registered voters, not the tech to analyse it
I suppose he is trying to 'engage' the casual reader/listener but it just sounds like he's turned up and gone 'woah, what's going on here?!! let's find out, kids!'.
Chris Mason once again writing like he’s narrating a children’s book where the protagonist is a bear wearing a little hat.
October 24, 2025 at 9:22 AM
I suppose he is trying to 'engage' the casual reader/listener but it just sounds like he's turned up and gone 'woah, what's going on here?!! let's find out, kids!'.
A lot of chat about how voter's knowledge of what the *real contest was in Caerphilly (Plaid v Reform) determined the outcome - and how MRPs might work in the same way in a national election. I'd be interested in seeing an A/B trial where B shows someone the latest constituency MRP before asking VI.
October 24, 2025 at 9:09 AM
A lot of chat about how voter's knowledge of what the *real contest was in Caerphilly (Plaid v Reform) determined the outcome - and how MRPs might work in the same way in a national election. I'd be interested in seeing an A/B trial where B shows someone the latest constituency MRP before asking VI.
Reposted by Joel Williams
Broadcasters - especially the BBC - have been working hard to ensure they give a voice to the 25-35% of people willing to vote Reform (and harder groups within that, like anti-asylum protest and Tommy protest)
Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
October 24, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Broadcasters - especially the BBC - have been working hard to ensure they give a voice to the 25-35% of people willing to vote Reform (and harder groups within that, like anti-asylum protest and Tommy protest)
Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
Need to pay as much attention to the unheard majority who fear that form of politics
Reposted by Joel Williams
When two wave systems collide, they can form square patterns, like the ones shown here. Researchers want to understand the math underlying the strange phenomena that ripple through ocean waters. www.quantamagazine.org/the-hidden-m...
October 22, 2025 at 3:46 PM
When two wave systems collide, they can form square patterns, like the ones shown here. Researchers want to understand the math underlying the strange phenomena that ripple through ocean waters. www.quantamagazine.org/the-hidden-m...
Reposted by Joel Williams
Italy's on what it's third wave of right-wing populists, after the previous two let their voters down? It doesn't go back in the bottle, just finds a new host.
October 6, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Italy's on what it's third wave of right-wing populists, after the previous two let their voters down? It doesn't go back in the bottle, just finds a new host.
Played my youngest Dark Side of the Moon last night. He rated it highly (8.5!). I hadn't listened to it in years: was struck by its strangeness and misery. Great though it is, how come it's the world's top selling album of the 1970s??
October 5, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Played my youngest Dark Side of the Moon last night. He rated it highly (8.5!). I hadn't listened to it in years: was struck by its strangeness and misery. Great though it is, how come it's the world's top selling album of the 1970s??
Reposted by Joel Williams
Some Liverpool thoughts .. this ‘gameweek’ last year they beat Crystal Palace 1-0. The week before they beat Wolves 2-1. Two wins by small margins. In their last two games they have lost by small margins (two stoppage time goals). This is largely how it’s been under Slot and what he wants to change.
October 5, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Some Liverpool thoughts .. this ‘gameweek’ last year they beat Crystal Palace 1-0. The week before they beat Wolves 2-1. Two wins by small margins. In their last two games they have lost by small margins (two stoppage time goals). This is largely how it’s been under Slot and what he wants to change.
Only a small minority will have even seen a snippet of that speech. It takes a long while for changes of direction (or emphasis) to percolate through the electorate.
Next week of polling is going to be the most fascinating I can remember. The junking of an entire strategy that a mountain of evidence suggested was failing on its own terms. And an alternative from which there is no turning back. A genuine shit or bust moment.
Seeing him and the conference finally rise to this is quite something. You can see the surge of confidence in the speech as he realises, hey basic antiracist rhetoric is popular and I believe it too! Glad the message has sunk in.
October 1, 2025 at 6:12 AM
Only a small minority will have even seen a snippet of that speech. It takes a long while for changes of direction (or emphasis) to percolate through the electorate.
I think most of the sales patter for silicon sampling is based on easy mode demonstrations that bear little relation to what we use surveys for.
Can large language models stand in for human participants?
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
The threat of analytic flexibility in using large language models to simulate human data: A call to attention
Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. How...
arxiv.org
September 20, 2025 at 8:49 AM
I think most of the sales patter for silicon sampling is based on easy mode demonstrations that bear little relation to what we use surveys for.
Everyone here is here because they find X 'annoying' in one way or another. If that's staying in an epistemic bubble, fine.
He literally says that he won't read a website which he knows has valuable information on it because it's too full of things he finds annoying! That's the definition of an epistemic bubble!
I had missed this exchange last month between Nate Silver and Tyler Cowen in which Silver more or less admits that the academic conversation has moved to Bluesky, but rather than thinking that this shows how Bluesky has become more important, he claims it's why they've "lost influence."
September 16, 2025 at 6:15 AM
Everyone here is here because they find X 'annoying' in one way or another. If that's staying in an epistemic bubble, fine.
Clearly this guy would have the shit kicked out of him if his violence fantasies came anywhere near him. Sounds like a ridiculous incel.
Elon Musk spoke by video to Tommy Robinson's anti-immigrant rally in the UK today.
"You're in a fundamental situation here where, whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you," said Musk. "You either fight back or you die."
"You're in a fundamental situation here where, whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you," said Musk. "You either fight back or you die."
September 13, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Clearly this guy would have the shit kicked out of him if his violence fantasies came anywhere near him. Sounds like a ridiculous incel.
Reposted by Joel Williams
Not certain how obvious this is to non-Brits, but every single person pictured at far-right marches in England looks like somebody you would cross the road to avoid on a Friday night, especially if they were in a group.
September 13, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Not certain how obvious this is to non-Brits, but every single person pictured at far-right marches in England looks like somebody you would cross the road to avoid on a Friday night, especially if they were in a group.
You'd think there's a pretty clear basis for at least a temporary block on X. But at the very least, the government shouldn't be posting there, even if they don't fancy the nuclear option. I find it baffling that they continue to (cheerily!) do so. Which persuadable people are they reaching?
This is the owner of X actively campaigning to take down the elected government of a country he is neither a resident nor a citizen of - and using threats of violence in the streets to further his aims www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
September 13, 2025 at 6:51 PM
You'd think there's a pretty clear basis for at least a temporary block on X. But at the very least, the government shouldn't be posting there, even if they don't fancy the nuclear option. I find it baffling that they continue to (cheerily!) do so. Which persuadable people are they reaching?