Risk of Ruin Podcast
@half-kelly.bsky.social
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The latest episode from @half-kelly.bsky.social is just killer stuff.
www.podbean.com/media/share/...
www.podbean.com/media/share/...
Trial and Error
Thomas started as a losing bettor, and then learned to win. Eventually he won so much that a regulated sportsbooks stole several million dollars from him.He talks about CLV, harvesting bonuses, faking...
www.podbean.com
September 15, 2025 at 3:37 PM
The latest episode from @half-kelly.bsky.social is just killer stuff.
www.podbean.com/media/share/...
www.podbean.com/media/share/...
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so am I supposed to be able to see them or not
National Guard is now tasked with picking up garbage in DC
August 27, 2025 at 12:00 AM
so am I supposed to be able to see them or not
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"The experts thought we'd be good and we were actually dogshit so really, who is the idiot now" is an incredible post from an owner lmao
August 27, 2025 at 3:54 AM
"The experts thought we'd be good and we were actually dogshit so really, who is the idiot now" is an incredible post from an owner lmao
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Justin Verlander looks like a GM explaining why he didn't make a move at the deadline
August 27, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Justin Verlander looks like a GM explaining why he didn't make a move at the deadline
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Google Revenue Soars on AI Boom, and Investors Eye Spending Surge-wsj
July 24, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Google Revenue Soars on AI Boom, and Investors Eye Spending Surge-wsj
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Hahaha oh my god, Stu Flashman (an "environmental" attorney) is arguing that *too many* people will use transit if SB79 passes, it will overload rail systems, and people will stop using transit altogether.
Absolutely batshit insane argument. I love it.
Absolutely batshit insane argument. I love it.
July 12, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Hahaha oh my god, Stu Flashman (an "environmental" attorney) is arguing that *too many* people will use transit if SB79 passes, it will overload rail systems, and people will stop using transit altogether.
Absolutely batshit insane argument. I love it.
Absolutely batshit insane argument. I love it.
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Every non-californian who seen Gavin newsom on some 30 second news show clip is like "oh wow, he's got juice" and every Californian is like "if you see Gavin in a dark alley, run as fast as you can, but it won't save you"
July 16, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Every non-californian who seen Gavin newsom on some 30 second news show clip is like "oh wow, he's got juice" and every Californian is like "if you see Gavin in a dark alley, run as fast as you can, but it won't save you"
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I think it's now possible to make a poli-sci course that equips one for modern political analysis better than most classic theory and has a syllabus sourced entirely from random internet posts.
Text 1. Wilhoit's Law, born as part of a 2018 blog comment
crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l...
Text 1. Wilhoit's Law, born as part of a 2018 blog comment
crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l...
July 13, 2025 at 1:07 AM
I think it's now possible to make a poli-sci course that equips one for modern political analysis better than most classic theory and has a syllabus sourced entirely from random internet posts.
Text 1. Wilhoit's Law, born as part of a 2018 blog comment
crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l...
Text 1. Wilhoit's Law, born as part of a 2018 blog comment
crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l...
I’m trying to think of the last thing I heard pmarca say that wasn’t extremely basic. It’s just weird that anyone listens at this point.
This was a great scoop by @nitasha.bsky.social
It can't be overstated how powerful Andreessen's late father-in-law, John Arrillaga, was at Stanford. He built so much of the campus and donated more than a quarter of a billion dollars to the school.
It can't be overstated how powerful Andreessen's late father-in-law, John Arrillaga, was at Stanford. He built so much of the campus and donated more than a quarter of a billion dollars to the school.
Funny, this is how I view Andreessen-Horowitz and their peers
July 13, 2025 at 2:20 AM
I’m trying to think of the last thing I heard pmarca say that wasn’t extremely basic. It’s just weird that anyone listens at this point.
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If you live in California call your state reps to tell them you support SB79 so we can build more housing around transit!
July 2, 2025 at 8:56 PM
If you live in California call your state reps to tell them you support SB79 so we can build more housing around transit!
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When will California YIMBY stop ignoring Proposition 13??? cayimby.org/resources/po...
July 8, 2025 at 1:29 AM
When will California YIMBY stop ignoring Proposition 13??? cayimby.org/resources/po...
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GoFundMe has set up a page for the Texan flood victims. Each campaign has been verified by the company's Trust & Safety experts, which means you know your money is going directly to families. Please consider donating if you can. Their stories are heartbreaking.
www.gofundme.com/c/act/flood-...
www.gofundme.com/c/act/flood-...
Donate to US Flood Relief Fundraisers
Help those affected by flooding across the US. Donate to verified fundraisers to offer flood relief to individuals & their families.
www.gofundme.com
July 5, 2025 at 9:22 PM
GoFundMe has set up a page for the Texan flood victims. Each campaign has been verified by the company's Trust & Safety experts, which means you know your money is going directly to families. Please consider donating if you can. Their stories are heartbreaking.
www.gofundme.com/c/act/flood-...
www.gofundme.com/c/act/flood-...
Musk et al already tried their hands at politics. They tried with Desantis, Vivek, RFK Jr, and Dean Philips.
Their endorsement of Trump was like the football player that jumps on the pile in the hopes of recording 1/2 a tackle.
Their endorsement of Trump was like the football player that jumps on the pile in the hopes of recording 1/2 a tackle.
July 5, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Musk et al already tried their hands at politics. They tried with Desantis, Vivek, RFK Jr, and Dean Philips.
Their endorsement of Trump was like the football player that jumps on the pile in the hopes of recording 1/2 a tackle.
Their endorsement of Trump was like the football player that jumps on the pile in the hopes of recording 1/2 a tackle.
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By my calculation, Tesla averaged $4800 gross profit (ex reg credits) per car worldwide in Q1. A $7500 discount won't leave much for operating expenses.
July 5, 2025 at 3:59 PM
By my calculation, Tesla averaged $4800 gross profit (ex reg credits) per car worldwide in Q1. A $7500 discount won't leave much for operating expenses.
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It's so funny how these guys say "import the third world, become the third world" and then their own policy preferences end up converging with the taliban
July 5, 2025 at 3:29 PM
It's so funny how these guys say "import the third world, become the third world" and then their own policy preferences end up converging with the taliban
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<<Maybe the most vivid and hilarious illustration of my point is that noted Tesla bull Cathie Wood published a valuation model in 2019. While the market cap of the company has often hit close to her bull case, the performance of the business has basically tracked the bear case.>>
Elon Derangement Syndrome. open.substack.com/pub/riskofru...
June 30, 2025 at 5:21 PM
<<Maybe the most vivid and hilarious illustration of my point is that noted Tesla bull Cathie Wood published a valuation model in 2019. While the market cap of the company has often hit close to her bull case, the performance of the business has basically tracked the bear case.>>
Elon Derangement Syndrome. open.substack.com/pub/riskofru...
June 30, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Elon Derangement Syndrome. open.substack.com/pub/riskofru...
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Absolutely incredible turnout for Budapest Pride! So proud of all the organizers, including some old friends, who estimate hundreds of thousands— major embarrassment to Orban
June 28, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Absolutely incredible turnout for Budapest Pride! So proud of all the organizers, including some old friends, who estimate hundreds of thousands— major embarrassment to Orban
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uh….I think Tesla’s self-driving capabilities have been overhyped, but I did assume they at least solved the problem of knowing the difference between train tracks and the road 😰
www.wfmz.com/news/area/be...
www.wfmz.com/news/area/be...
June 16, 2025 at 2:33 PM
uh….I think Tesla’s self-driving capabilities have been overhyped, but I did assume they at least solved the problem of knowing the difference between train tracks and the road 😰
www.wfmz.com/news/area/be...
www.wfmz.com/news/area/be...
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Fascinating point. Now to look up why Russia was booted from the G8…
Trump with Mark Carney: "The G7 used to be the G8. Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in, and I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn't have a war right now if you had Russia in."
June 16, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Fascinating point. Now to look up why Russia was booted from the G8…
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Speaking of Trump grifts -- the Melania Coin launched in January @ $7 -- traded higher for a couple hours at most - and is now ....
27 cents
27 cents
June 16, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Speaking of Trump grifts -- the Melania Coin launched in January @ $7 -- traded higher for a couple hours at most - and is now ....
27 cents
27 cents
I am in the weird position of essentially agreeing with the Klein / Thompson end position on housing, while otherwise thinking they are kind of full of shit. As in - I agree we should build more, but I don’t think they even tried to understand the issue.
June 16, 2025 at 2:24 AM
I am in the weird position of essentially agreeing with the Klein / Thompson end position on housing, while otherwise thinking they are kind of full of shit. As in - I agree we should build more, but I don’t think they even tried to understand the issue.