Erica Chenoweth
@chenoweth.bsky.social
Political scientist & part-time farmer. Books: 'On Revolutions' (2022), 'Civil Resistance' (2021), & 'The Politics of Terror' (2019). Coming soon: 'Bread & Roses' & 'The End of People Power.' https://www.ericachenoweth.com. What a time to be alive.
Pinned
Lately I've seen many references to the 3.5% rule. A few years ago I pulled together this Q&A on potential uses and misuses of this statistic. www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/defaul...
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
BREAKING: Mark Wolf, appointed to the federal bench by Ronald Reagan, writes that he is resigning as a judge to have the freedom to speak out against the president's assault on the rule of law.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
November 9, 2025 at 2:27 PM
BREAKING: Mark Wolf, appointed to the federal bench by Ronald Reagan, writes that he is resigning as a judge to have the freedom to speak out against the president's assault on the rule of law.
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Universal swing in action: "What we saw last night was a directional shift toward Democrats in 99.8% of counties that held partisan elections." www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
November 5, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Universal swing in action: "What we saw last night was a directional shift toward Democrats in 99.8% of counties that held partisan elections." www.gelliottmorris.com/p/seven-data...
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Came here to say this, but Jamelle Bouie has this covered. 👇
When the Democratic tent includes candidates like Spanberger and Mamdani, there is no crisis, or fight, for the party. IT’S A COALITION, NOT A POINT ESTIMATE.
When the Democratic tent includes candidates like Spanberger and Mamdani, there is no crisis, or fight, for the party. IT’S A COALITION, NOT A POINT ESTIMATE.
i want to repeat this: mamdani and spanberger have run similar campaigns tailored to their respective electorates and it is maddening to watch political journalists attempt to create some broad contrast where none exist
the other thing about this is that there is no reason to pit these candidates against each other? each are good fits for their respective electorates and each shows the value of vigorous campaigns focused on the stated material problems of voters.
November 5, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Came here to say this, but Jamelle Bouie has this covered. 👇
When the Democratic tent includes candidates like Spanberger and Mamdani, there is no crisis, or fight, for the party. IT’S A COALITION, NOT A POINT ESTIMATE.
When the Democratic tent includes candidates like Spanberger and Mamdani, there is no crisis, or fight, for the party. IT’S A COALITION, NOT A POINT ESTIMATE.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Great discussion between @staceyabrams.com & @chenoweth.bsky.social on the power of peaceful resistance.
Stacey Abrams on No Kings Day and the Power of Civil Disobedience Against Trump
YouTube video by Assembly Required with Stacey Abrams
youtu.be
October 30, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Great discussion between @staceyabrams.com & @chenoweth.bsky.social on the power of peaceful resistance.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
People ask a lot about whether protests matter. While Trump’s approval rating is driven by many factors, events like the No Kings rallies likely play a role, too. Media coverage and people seeing their neighbors take a stand help convey that disapproval is not just acceptable but widespread.
Donald Trump's approval rating in our tracker has fallen to -18, the lowest it has ever been (lower than any point in his first term) www.economist.com/interactive/...
October 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM
People ask a lot about whether protests matter. While Trump’s approval rating is driven by many factors, events like the No Kings rallies likely play a role, too. Media coverage and people seeing their neighbors take a stand help convey that disapproval is not just acceptable but widespread.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Two Illinois National Guard members speak out: "I won't turn against my neighbors."
2 Illinois National Guard members speak out: "I won't turn against my neighbors"
Staff Sgt. Demi Palecek and Capt. Dylan Blaha say they'll defy federal orders regarding Trump's immigration enforcement operation in Chicago.
cbsn.ws
October 27, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Two Illinois National Guard members speak out: "I won't turn against my neighbors."
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
The ex-prosecutor also said this:
“I have a lot of close contacts in law enforcement, and almost to a person, none of them support these actions. As a lawyer, someone who adamantly believes in the rule of law, watching it in open sight in front of my house just be completely eroded…it’s upsetting.”
“I have a lot of close contacts in law enforcement, and almost to a person, none of them support these actions. As a lawyer, someone who adamantly believes in the rule of law, watching it in open sight in front of my house just be completely eroded…it’s upsetting.”
October 26, 2025 at 1:12 AM
The ex-prosecutor also said this:
“I have a lot of close contacts in law enforcement, and almost to a person, none of them support these actions. As a lawyer, someone who adamantly believes in the rule of law, watching it in open sight in front of my house just be completely eroded…it’s upsetting.”
“I have a lot of close contacts in law enforcement, and almost to a person, none of them support these actions. As a lawyer, someone who adamantly believes in the rule of law, watching it in open sight in front of my house just be completely eroded…it’s upsetting.”
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Is the big tent approach to strengthening US democracy working? Yes! Check out how The Horizons Project approaches the task--in the latest Democracy Without Exception piece ⬇️
democracywithoutexception.substack.com/p/the-big-te...
democracywithoutexception.substack.com/p/the-big-te...
The Big Tent is Working
Julia Roig on why building relational infrastructure takes time
democracywithoutexception.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 1:54 AM
Is the big tent approach to strengthening US democracy working? Yes! Check out how The Horizons Project approaches the task--in the latest Democracy Without Exception piece ⬇️
democracywithoutexception.substack.com/p/the-big-te...
democracywithoutexception.substack.com/p/the-big-te...
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
NEW: Cardinal Blase Cupich, the Archbishop of Chicago, has issued a new statement declaring that Chicago "communities are shaken by immigration raids and detentions. These actions wound the soul of our city. Let me be clear. The Church stands with migrants."
October 21, 2025 at 6:05 PM
NEW: Cardinal Blase Cupich, the Archbishop of Chicago, has issued a new statement declaring that Chicago "communities are shaken by immigration raids and detentions. These actions wound the soul of our city. Let me be clear. The Church stands with migrants."
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.
The New York Times Argues “Moving to the Center Is the Way to Win.” But the Data Shows the Strategy Is Tapped Out.
Democrats already run moderates in nearly every swing district. It's not enough. A data-driven response to the case for centrism as a core electoral strategy.
data4democracy.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.
Very good @shteyngart.bsky.social piece illuminating below.
October 20, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Very good @shteyngart.bsky.social piece illuminating below.
Happening today - 4pm ET. Register below.
Join @stevelevitsky.bsky.social & me for the first episode of our new series The Breakdown. Register here to join us live on Monday, 10/20 at 4pm ET: ash.harvard.edu/events/the-b...
The Breakdown – Ash Center
Join Erica Chenoweth and Steven Levitsky for The Breakdown, a webinar series on the ongoing struggle for American democracy. Each month, Chenoweth and Levitsky will break down key developments, reflec...
ash.harvard.edu
October 20, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Happening today - 4pm ET. Register below.
From a 2022 piece by Gledhill, Shay, & @allardduursma.bsky.social: "campaigns that are more creative, humorous, cathartic, and/or fun are also more likely to be large-scale" civil resistance campaigns bc of the "feelings of empowerment, solidarity, catharsis, or glee that accompany these events."
Glee and Grievance: Emotive Events and Campaign Size in Nonviolent Resistance
While scholars of nonviolent resistance recognize that large-scale campaigns are more likely to be successful campaigns, scholars and policymakers currently have little understanding of why some nonvi...
www.belfercenter.org
October 20, 2025 at 1:10 PM
From a 2022 piece by Gledhill, Shay, & @allardduursma.bsky.social: "campaigns that are more creative, humorous, cathartic, and/or fun are also more likely to be large-scale" civil resistance campaigns bc of the "feelings of empowerment, solidarity, catharsis, or glee that accompany these events."
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
When you see 2-3 percent doing something costly like protesting, you figure there are at least 10x who would like to but couldn't, 20x who largely agree, and 5-10 percent who are undecided but really thinking about what is going on.
The sum is way over 50 percent any way you cut it.
The sum is way over 50 percent any way you cut it.
Just saw an extremely dumb post about how this is not what democracy
looks like because only 2% of the population turned out, it's what freedom of assembly looks like, and what the bleep do people even think democracy is? Freedom of assembly being part of democracy is elementary school civics.
looks like because only 2% of the population turned out, it's what freedom of assembly looks like, and what the bleep do people even think democracy is? Freedom of assembly being part of democracy is elementary school civics.
October 19, 2025 at 2:06 AM
When you see 2-3 percent doing something costly like protesting, you figure there are at least 10x who would like to but couldn't, 20x who largely agree, and 5-10 percent who are undecided but really thinking about what is going on.
The sum is way over 50 percent any way you cut it.
The sum is way over 50 percent any way you cut it.
Mayor Michelle Wu at the protest today: “What scares them about Boston is that we are the America they say is impossible.”
October 18, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Mayor Michelle Wu at the protest today: “What scares them about Boston is that we are the America they say is impossible.”
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Giant copy of the Constitution being carried down Pennsylvania Avenue.
October 18, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Giant copy of the Constitution being carried down Pennsylvania Avenue.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Good thread on protest participation. Just looking at the No Kings events, I'm surprised to see events across Colorado, not just the Front Range. And Nebraska: Ogallala, North Platte, Kearney, Grand Island, and Hastings. It's gong to be an interesting day.
7. But the # of protests in Trump-leaning counties in June 2025 was comparable to those in Jun 2020, during the height of the Black Lives Matter uprising. But unlike in 2020, that trend has held. Since April, the median protest county in the US cast more votes for Trump than Harris.
October 18, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Good thread on protest participation. Just looking at the No Kings events, I'm surprised to see events across Colorado, not just the Front Range. And Nebraska: Ogallala, North Platte, Kearney, Grand Island, and Hastings. It's gong to be an interesting day.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Today at Detroit Metro Airport.
October 17, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Today at Detroit Metro Airport.
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Join @stevelevitsky.bsky.social & me for the first episode of our new series The Breakdown. Register here to join us live on Monday, 10/20 at 4pm ET: ash.harvard.edu/events/the-b...
The Breakdown – Ash Center
Join Erica Chenoweth and Steven Levitsky for The Breakdown, a webinar series on the ongoing struggle for American democracy. Each month, Chenoweth and Levitsky will break down key developments, reflec...
ash.harvard.edu
October 16, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Join @stevelevitsky.bsky.social & me for the first episode of our new series The Breakdown. Register here to join us live on Monday, 10/20 at 4pm ET: ash.harvard.edu/events/the-b...
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Hammam, & Chris Shay) has a new piece, whose title speaks for itself. A 🧵 with some key descriptive takeaways:
The resistance reaches into Trump country
As organizers for No Kings 2 seek historic turnout on Oct. 18, the broader pro-democracy movement has already broken new ground.
wagingnonviolence.org
October 16, 2025 at 8:11 PM
My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Hammam, & Chris Shay) has a new piece, whose title speaks for itself. A 🧵 with some key descriptive takeaways:
Join @stevelevitsky.bsky.social & me for the first episode of our new series The Breakdown. Register here to join us live on Monday, 10/20 at 4pm ET: ash.harvard.edu/events/the-b...
The Breakdown – Ash Center
Join Erica Chenoweth and Steven Levitsky for The Breakdown, a webinar series on the ongoing struggle for American democracy. Each month, Chenoweth and Levitsky will break down key developments, reflec...
ash.harvard.edu
October 16, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Join @stevelevitsky.bsky.social & me for the first episode of our new series The Breakdown. Register here to join us live on Monday, 10/20 at 4pm ET: ash.harvard.edu/events/the-b...
Reposted by Erica Chenoweth
Fantastic research by an incredible team, on the depth and breadth of current US protest activity - heartening to read, too.
My team at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@djpressman.bsky.social, Hammam, & Chris Shay) has a new piece, whose title speaks for itself. A 🧵 with some key descriptive takeaways:
The resistance reaches into Trump country
As organizers for No Kings 2 seek historic turnout on Oct. 18, the broader pro-democracy movement has already broken new ground.
wagingnonviolence.org
October 16, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Fantastic research by an incredible team, on the depth and breadth of current US protest activity - heartening to read, too.