Cheesles
@cheesles.bsky.social
Retired dividend investor.
Having a go at sustaining a high-income portfolio.
Having a go at sustaining a high-income portfolio.
Technical analysis is the phrenology of the investing cosmos.
December 4, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Technical analysis is the phrenology of the investing cosmos.
Reposted by Cheesles
Trump goes on another racist rant about Somalis: "Ilhan Omar should be thrown the hell out of our country, and most of those people -- they have destroyed Minnesota. It's a hellhole right now. Those Somalians should be out of here. They have destroyed out country ... go back to your own country."
December 3, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Trump goes on another racist rant about Somalis: "Ilhan Omar should be thrown the hell out of our country, and most of those people -- they have destroyed Minnesota. It's a hellhole right now. Those Somalians should be out of here. They have destroyed out country ... go back to your own country."
Reposted by Cheesles
Official government statistics that come from independent statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Those folks tell the truth. The problem, of course, is that every word that comes out of the White House, almost every word... is a lie."
December 3, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Official government statistics that come from independent statistical agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Those folks tell the truth. The problem, of course, is that every word that comes out of the White House, almost every word... is a lie."
Reposted by Cheesles
Reposted by Cheesles
‘We now have confirmation, with the OECD saying in a new report that, without AI capex, U.S. economic growth declined in the first half of 2025. People keep wondering why the employment market is weak, but the economy somehow chugs along. This is why.’ paulkedrosky.com/ex-ai-capex-...
December 2, 2025 at 8:51 PM
‘We now have confirmation, with the OECD saying in a new report that, without AI capex, U.S. economic growth declined in the first half of 2025. People keep wondering why the employment market is weak, but the economy somehow chugs along. This is why.’ paulkedrosky.com/ex-ai-capex-...
Reposted by Cheesles
Nvidia is spending $1.3 billion to rent its own chips back from CoreWeave, a company in which it owns a $4 billion stake.
There are, AFAICT, only two explanations for this arrangement:
(1) It's accounting fraud.
(2) It's accounting non-fraud, because we don't prosecute financial crimes anymore.
There are, AFAICT, only two explanations for this arrangement:
(1) It's accounting fraud.
(2) It's accounting non-fraud, because we don't prosecute financial crimes anymore.
December 2, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Nvidia is spending $1.3 billion to rent its own chips back from CoreWeave, a company in which it owns a $4 billion stake.
There are, AFAICT, only two explanations for this arrangement:
(1) It's accounting fraud.
(2) It's accounting non-fraud, because we don't prosecute financial crimes anymore.
There are, AFAICT, only two explanations for this arrangement:
(1) It's accounting fraud.
(2) It's accounting non-fraud, because we don't prosecute financial crimes anymore.
Reposted by Cheesles
in terms of focussing on "affordability," this is one of the worst things you could do as the Transportation Department.
The U.S. Transportation Department is threatening to shut down thousands of truck driving schools, part of the Trump administration's widening crackdown on industry.
Thousands of U.S. trucking schools could lose accreditation under DOT crackdown
The U.S. Transportation Department is threatening to shut down thousands of truck driving schools, part of the Trump administration's widening crackdown on industry.
n.pr
December 2, 2025 at 4:10 AM
in terms of focussing on "affordability," this is one of the worst things you could do as the Transportation Department.
Reposted by Cheesles
$RVT declares a banger of a Q4 distro:
Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) declares $0.54/share
Payable Dec. 24; for shareholders of record Dec. 11; ex-div Dec. 11.
Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) declares $0.54/share
Payable Dec. 24; for shareholders of record Dec. 11; ex-div Dec. 11.
December 1, 2025 at 10:26 PM
$RVT declares a banger of a Q4 distro:
Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) declares $0.54/share
Payable Dec. 24; for shareholders of record Dec. 11; ex-div Dec. 11.
Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT) declares $0.54/share
Payable Dec. 24; for shareholders of record Dec. 11; ex-div Dec. 11.
Reposted by Cheesles
Relying on ChatGPT to teach you about a topic leaves you with shallower knowledge than Googling and reading about it, according to new research that compared what more than 10,000 people knew after using one method or the other.
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Learning With AI Falls Short Compared to Old-Fashioned Web Search
In virtually all the ways that matter, getting summarized information from AI models was less educational than doing the work of search.
buff.ly
November 30, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Relying on ChatGPT to teach you about a topic leaves you with shallower knowledge than Googling and reading about it, according to new research that compared what more than 10,000 people knew after using one method or the other.
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
Shared by @gizmodo.com: buff.ly/yAAHtHq
With divs and interest I don't need to live on, Added to RVT, EDD, USA, KYN, BCX, PFFR, UTG, UTF, AOD, BGY.
November 28, 2025 at 4:30 PM
With divs and interest I don't need to live on, Added to RVT, EDD, USA, KYN, BCX, PFFR, UTG, UTF, AOD, BGY.
Reposted by Cheesles
HSBC forecasts that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030
November 27, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Reposted by Cheesles
Reposted by Cheesles
Blackrock does not buy homes.
Blackstone does.
Jesus.
Blackstone does.
Jesus.
November 27, 2025 at 5:13 AM
Blackrock does not buy homes.
Blackstone does.
Jesus.
Blackstone does.
Jesus.
Reposted by Cheesles
CHART: Bitcoin ETFs shed $58B, dropping faster than BTC protos.com/chart-bitcoi...
CHART: Bitcoin ETFs shed $58B, dropping faster than BTC
Although both BTC ETFs and the price of BTC itself have declined since October, ETF outflows have far outpaced the asset's decline.
protos.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:23 AM
CHART: Bitcoin ETFs shed $58B, dropping faster than BTC protos.com/chart-bitcoi...
Reposted by Cheesles
If there's ever been a big flashing light that signals 'Exit All Grifts' it's a sharp sustained downturn for Bitcoin.
Crypto hoarders dump tokens as shares tumble on.ft.com/49As3k6
Crypto hoarders dump tokens as shares tumble
‘Digital asset treasury’ craze sours amid $1tn rout in cryptocurrency market
on.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:20 AM
If there's ever been a big flashing light that signals 'Exit All Grifts' it's a sharp sustained downturn for Bitcoin.
Reposted by Cheesles
To cut rates, you'd need to forecast inflation falling to 2% very soon (not likely) or an employment recession (possible).
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
Should the Fed raise rates in December?
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
November 26, 2025 at 12:24 AM
To cut rates, you'd need to forecast inflation falling to 2% very soon (not likely) or an employment recession (possible).
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
Reposted by Cheesles
Is the problem the economic "messaging" or the economic "outcomes"
November 24, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Is the problem the economic "messaging" or the economic "outcomes"
"...spending on AI related construction, and increased consumer spending in part from recent stock market gains, are likely the only two significant factors keeping the economy out of recession."
#econsky #finsky
bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/scen...
#econsky #finsky
bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/scen...
Scenes from the very tardy September jobs report
- by New Deal democrat An opening comment: it is an abomination that the US government treated its statistical agencies as doing expendi...
bonddad.blogspot.com
November 24, 2025 at 10:49 PM
"...spending on AI related construction, and increased consumer spending in part from recent stock market gains, are likely the only two significant factors keeping the economy out of recession."
#econsky #finsky
bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/scen...
#econsky #finsky
bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/scen...
Jettisoned my $KRP this morning and added the proceeds to $USA.
November 24, 2025 at 10:04 PM
Jettisoned my $KRP this morning and added the proceeds to $USA.
Reposted by Cheesles
"aggressive accounting" is a fun euphemism
This feels like one of those stories you're going to look at a year from now and say to yourself, "Why didn't I move more of my portfolio into cash?" **
** (This post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or any other advice.)
🎁
www.wsj.com/tech/meta-ai...
** (This post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or any other advice.)
🎁
www.wsj.com/tech/meta-ai...
AI Meets Aggressive Accounting at Meta’s Gigantic New Data Center
Favorable treatment off the balance sheet hinges on some convenient assumptions.
www.wsj.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:52 PM
"aggressive accounting" is a fun euphemism
Reposted by Cheesles
The DALLAS FED survey commentary is as dire as ever:
“.. We don't know if it's the shutdown or just that demand has dropped, but our orders have dropped in half.”
@bobburgess.bsky.social
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
“.. We don't know if it's the shutdown or just that demand has dropped, but our orders have dropped in half.”
@bobburgess.bsky.social
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
November 24, 2025 at 3:43 PM
The DALLAS FED survey commentary is as dire as ever:
“.. We don't know if it's the shutdown or just that demand has dropped, but our orders have dropped in half.”
@bobburgess.bsky.social
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
“.. We don't know if it's the shutdown or just that demand has dropped, but our orders have dropped in half.”
@bobburgess.bsky.social
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
Reposted by Cheesles
Concerned lawmakers with very complicated questions like, ‘Why exactly would you start a war in Venezuela?’
It was a Saturday night, so it was pretty likely Hegseth was in no condition to participate.
November 24, 2025 at 1:44 AM
Concerned lawmakers with very complicated questions like, ‘Why exactly would you start a war in Venezuela?’
Reposted by Cheesles
“Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who blasted Summers and others for sexism in a widely shared and highly critical 2020 blog post, sounded vindicated. “Okay, so maybe I wasn’t too mean to him…” she said on social media after the emails were made public last week.” www.wsj.com/us-news/larr...
How Larry Summers’s Power Delayed the Reckoning Over His Epstein Ties
The former Treasury Secretary and Harvard president’s enormous network and clout kept him immune from past Jeffrey Epstein revelations. But this time was just too much.
www.wsj.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:02 AM
“Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who blasted Summers and others for sexism in a widely shared and highly critical 2020 blog post, sounded vindicated. “Okay, so maybe I wasn’t too mean to him…” she said on social media after the emails were made public last week.” www.wsj.com/us-news/larr...