Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report and host of the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Pinned
'Bubbles Are Everywhere You Look'
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
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thefelderreport.com
NEW POST: ‘Bubbles Are Everywhere You Look’ thefelderreport.com/2025/12/20/b...
‘Analysts forecast, in aggregate, that the benchmark index’s price target will finish 2026 a whisker below 8,000 — at 7,968.78. That would imply, yes, another 16 percent gain... Betting against this bull market has become an exercise in futility.’ www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/b...
January 2, 2026 at 6:23 PM
‘Analysts forecast, in aggregate, that the benchmark index’s price target will finish 2026 a whisker below 8,000 — at 7,968.78. That would imply, yes, another 16 percent gain... Betting against this bull market has become an exercise in futility.’ www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/b...
’Throughout history, spikes in memory company stocks have always occurred with sharp upside moves and sharp downside reversals.’ substack.com/inbox/post/1...
January 2, 2026 at 5:16 PM
’Throughout history, spikes in memory company stocks have always occurred with sharp upside moves and sharp downside reversals.’ substack.com/inbox/post/1...
“When you have a generational company who is defining their category, I don’t think their decision to go public is a reaction to a macro market view. These businesses are so strong that they are the ones driving the macro.” www.ft.com/content/bf60...
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic prepare to launch landmark IPOs
Three biggest US private tech groups plan listings as early as this year, raising hopes of windfall for banks, lawyers and investors
www.ft.com
January 2, 2026 at 4:39 PM
“When you have a generational company who is defining their category, I don’t think their decision to go public is a reaction to a macro market view. These businesses are so strong that they are the ones driving the macro.” www.ft.com/content/bf60...
‘If 2024 was the year of experimentation with generative AI, then last year was one of implementation. This year will be dominated by hard-headed evaluation as AI comes under intense scrutiny over its practical reliability and commercial viability.’ www.ft.com/content/a221...
Three questions AI needs to answer
Evaluation of use cases and business models will dominate 2026
www.ft.com
January 2, 2026 at 4:35 PM
‘If 2024 was the year of experimentation with generative AI, then last year was one of implementation. This year will be dominated by hard-headed evaluation as AI comes under intense scrutiny over its practical reliability and commercial viability.’ www.ft.com/content/a221...
“I’m sure there’s a lot of people… who would like me to not tell the world that LLMs basically are a dead end when it comes to superintelligence. But I’m not gonna change my mind because some dude thinks I’m wrong... My integrity as a scientist cannot allow me to do this.” www.ft.com/content/e3c4...
Computer scientist Yann LeCun: ‘Intelligence really is about learning’
The AI pioneer on stepping down from Meta, the limits of large language models — and the launch of his new start-up
www.ft.com
January 2, 2026 at 4:28 PM
“I’m sure there’s a lot of people… who would like me to not tell the world that LLMs basically are a dead end when it comes to superintelligence. But I’m not gonna change my mind because some dude thinks I’m wrong... My integrity as a scientist cannot allow me to do this.” www.ft.com/content/e3c4...
‘Mega-cap tech companies led a disproportionate share of the US stock market’s gains in 2025. Their executives also accounted for an outsized share of insider selling as billionaire founders, CEOs and directors took more than $16 billion off the table.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Jeff Bezos, Michael Dell Led Billionaire Insider Selling in 2025
Billionaire founders, CEOs and directors took more than $16 billion off the table last year
www.bloomberg.com
January 2, 2026 at 3:48 PM
‘Mega-cap tech companies led a disproportionate share of the US stock market’s gains in 2025. Their executives also accounted for an outsized share of insider selling as billionaire founders, CEOs and directors took more than $16 billion off the table.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Buffett stuck to his script in his final year as Berkshire Hathaway’s chief executive. With the market’s rally limiting opportunities to make large acquisitions, Berkshire sold more stocks than it bought and stockpiled cash.‘ www.wsj.com/finance/warr...
Warren Buffett Stayed True to His Ways in His Final Year as Berkshire CEO
Buffett spent the year eschewing expensive deals, selling more stocks than he bought, and adding to the company’s cash pile.
www.wsj.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:29 PM
‘Buffett stuck to his script in his final year as Berkshire Hathaway’s chief executive. With the market’s rally limiting opportunities to make large acquisitions, Berkshire sold more stocks than it bought and stockpiled cash.‘ www.wsj.com/finance/warr...
‘In 2025, small-dollar day traders and other everyday investors played a bigger role in more markets than ever before. They traded options, sent a new class of meme stocks to the moon and piled into the Mag Seven tech companies when the “smart money” got skittish.‘ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Everyday Traders Go From Fringe Players to Dominant Market Force
Forget the GameStop frenzy four years ago—2025 was the year of the retail trader, with individual investors flexing their muscles and exerting more power over markets than ever before.
www.wsj.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:26 PM
‘In 2025, small-dollar day traders and other everyday investors played a bigger role in more markets than ever before. They traded options, sent a new class of meme stocks to the moon and piled into the Mag Seven tech companies when the “smart money” got skittish.‘ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
‘This time two years ago, analysts were predicting Tesla would deliver more than 3 million vehicles. That average estimate for deliveries this year has plunged to roughly 1.8 million.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Tesla Sales Outlook Darkens Despite Musk’s Self-Driving Euphoria
Tesla Inc. ended last year on a roll, with investors increasingly buying into Elon Musk’s ebullience about autonomous vehicles. Winning over actual car buyers was another story.
www.bloomberg.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:12 PM
‘This time two years ago, analysts were predicting Tesla would deliver more than 3 million vehicles. That average estimate for deliveries this year has plunged to roughly 1.8 million.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘Democratic Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders and right-wing Gov. Ron DeSantis agree on virtually nothing. But they found common ground this year as leading skeptics of the artificial intelligence industry’s data center boom.’ www.cnbc.com/2026/01/01/a...
Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis speak out against data center boom. It's a bad sign for AI industry
Sen. Bernie Sanders has called for a data center moratoriu, while Gov. Ron DeSantis has pushed back on the AI industry in Florida.
www.cnbc.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:02 PM
‘Democratic Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders and right-wing Gov. Ron DeSantis agree on virtually nothing. But they found common ground this year as leading skeptics of the artificial intelligence industry’s data center boom.’ www.cnbc.com/2026/01/01/a...
‘Just about all of the boxes have been checked that an investor would look for to determine that the end of a secular bull market is near.‘ journey1advisors.com/overview-of-...
December 31, 2025 at 7:11 PM
‘Just about all of the boxes have been checked that an investor would look for to determine that the end of a secular bull market is near.‘ journey1advisors.com/overview-of-...
‘Some Apple leaders hold the view that large language models will become commodities in the years to come and that spending a fortune now on its own models doesn’t make sense.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/202...
2026 Predictions: Apple Will Reverse Its AI Slump
As AI has completely consumed the tech industry, Apple has held back from the colossal investments in the technology its peers have been making. Wall Street, pundits and media outlets have criticized ...
www.theinformation.com
December 31, 2025 at 6:41 PM
‘Some Apple leaders hold the view that large language models will become commodities in the years to come and that spending a fortune now on its own models doesn’t make sense.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/202...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Gimmicky low-N data analysis -- times in the past 25 years when the Nasdaq 100 was down in both November and December:
2000 (!)
2007 (!)
2011 (okay not exciting)
2018 (good buying opp)
2025* (if we closed here)
2000 (!)
2007 (!)
2011 (okay not exciting)
2018 (good buying opp)
2025* (if we closed here)
December 31, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Gimmicky low-N data analysis -- times in the past 25 years when the Nasdaq 100 was down in both November and December:
2000 (!)
2007 (!)
2011 (okay not exciting)
2018 (good buying opp)
2025* (if we closed here)
2000 (!)
2007 (!)
2011 (okay not exciting)
2018 (good buying opp)
2025* (if we closed here)
‘OpenAI’s compensation as a percentage of revenue was set to reach 46% in 2025.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/open...
OpenAI Is Paying Employees More Than Any Major Tech Startup in History
The company’s stock-based compensation in 2025 reached an average of $1.5 million per employee.
www.wsj.com
December 31, 2025 at 4:42 PM
‘OpenAI’s compensation as a percentage of revenue was set to reach 46% in 2025.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/open...
‘What is the secret of Buffett’s astounding success? I believe it is his character. Wall Street is full of intelligent — and ambitious — men and women, but few have displayed Buffett’s unswerving integrity and dedication to principle.’ rogerlowenstein.substack.com/p/warren-buf...
Warren Buffett: A Question of Character
This article previously appeared in the Boston Globe
rogerlowenstein.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 4:10 PM
‘What is the secret of Buffett’s astounding success? I believe it is his character. Wall Street is full of intelligent — and ambitious — men and women, but few have displayed Buffett’s unswerving integrity and dedication to principle.’ rogerlowenstein.substack.com/p/warren-buf...
‘Between 1968 and 2007, low-asset-growth firms had an average return of 26% annually, while high-asset-growth firms returned a meagre 4%.’ www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/in...
Before investing in high-asset-growth firms, consider the evidence
The argument that proponents of a bull AI-driven market have solid balance sheets is questionable
www.theglobeandmail.com
December 31, 2025 at 4:02 PM
‘Between 1968 and 2007, low-asset-growth firms had an average return of 26% annually, while high-asset-growth firms returned a meagre 4%.’ www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/in...
‘As short-term rates decline, I suspect the corporate liquidity ratio to decline even further during 2026. Tech investors beware! Once corporate cash dries up the stock market’s technology miracle may suffer a pause.’ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/a-few-caut... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
December 31, 2025 at 3:53 PM
‘As short-term rates decline, I suspect the corporate liquidity ratio to decline even further during 2026. Tech investors beware! Once corporate cash dries up the stock market’s technology miracle may suffer a pause.’ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/a-few-caut... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
Reposted by Jesse Felder
I don’t put too much weight on years of the presidential cycle but it’s crazy how just about every midterm year going back to 1990 — 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 — was pretty challenging in markets. Two exceptions-ish were 2006 but that had a Q2 growth scare and 2014 (Ebola).
December 31, 2025 at 12:49 PM
I don’t put too much weight on years of the presidential cycle but it’s crazy how just about every midterm year going back to 1990 — 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 — was pretty challenging in markets. Two exceptions-ish were 2006 but that had a Q2 growth scare and 2014 (Ebola).
Reposted by Jesse Felder
We had a lengthy discussion on the air about his background and current view that the secular bull market is in a late phase, with valuations and macro conditions presenting a challaneging starting point for forward returns. See and read about it here...
Mike Santoli's long-time 'Mystery Broker' is revealed, says bull run 'going to end' within two years
"Mystery Broker" joined CNBC's Michael Santoli on "Closing Bell" Tuesday, where MB's identity was revealed to be David Snyder.
www.cnbc.com
December 30, 2025 at 9:21 PM
We had a lengthy discussion on the air about his background and current view that the secular bull market is in a late phase, with valuations and macro conditions presenting a challaneging starting point for forward returns. See and read about it here...
'Private equity firms sold companies to themselves at a record rate this year, making use of a controversial tactic to hold on to assets as managers struggled to find buyers or list their investments.‘ www.ft.com/content/0236...
Private equity firms sell assets to themselves at a record rate
So-called continuation vehicles set to account for a fifth of sales by the sector in 2025
www.ft.com
December 30, 2025 at 6:39 PM
'Private equity firms sold companies to themselves at a record rate this year, making use of a controversial tactic to hold on to assets as managers struggled to find buyers or list their investments.‘ www.ft.com/content/0236...
‘Surging artificial intelligence stocks have driven the US market to record highs this year, drawing comparisons on some metrics to infamous periods of investor mania in the past.’ www.ft.com/content/41e9...
December 30, 2025 at 6:35 PM
‘Surging artificial intelligence stocks have driven the US market to record highs this year, drawing comparisons on some metrics to infamous periods of investor mania in the past.’ www.ft.com/content/41e9...
“This has been one of the worst years for dollar performance in the history of free-floating exchange rates.” www.ft.com/content/1712...
December 30, 2025 at 4:58 PM
“This has been one of the worst years for dollar performance in the history of free-floating exchange rates.” www.ft.com/content/1712...
‘Silver looks expensive based on the amount of the precious metal needed to buy oil, with the price relationship between the two commodities entering uncharted territory, according to DataTrek Research.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/why-si...
December 30, 2025 at 4:55 PM
‘Silver looks expensive based on the amount of the precious metal needed to buy oil, with the price relationship between the two commodities entering uncharted territory, according to DataTrek Research.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/why-si...
‘Historically this kind of shift to easing has lit a fire under commodities.’ www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-... by @topdowncharts.bsky.social
December 30, 2025 at 4:00 PM
‘Historically this kind of shift to easing has lit a fire under commodities.’ www.chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-... by @topdowncharts.bsky.social
“Retail traders—often referred to as ‘dumb money’—are clearly not betting on the downside for equities. The last 4 instances when the ‘short’ allocation was this low, they were wrong 3 times, with the SPX subsequently facing significant downside risk.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/825
December 30, 2025 at 3:45 PM
“Retail traders—often referred to as ‘dumb money’—are clearly not betting on the downside for equities. The last 4 instances when the ‘short’ allocation was this low, they were wrong 3 times, with the SPX subsequently facing significant downside risk.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/825