Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report and host of the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
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Investor 'Greed' Goes Off The Chart
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
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NEW POST: Investor ‘Greed’ Goes Off The Chart thefelderreport.com/2025/11/08/i...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Feels extra-special when you get a motherlode of syndromes with all the sinister names.
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
November 11, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Feels extra-special when you get a motherlode of syndromes with all the sinister names.
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames.
NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI
‘The copper-gold ratio is consistent with a US economic slowdown, which may become more apparent once government shutdown ends and data releases resume.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
November 11, 2025 at 8:11 PM
‘The copper-gold ratio is consistent with a US economic slowdown, which may become more apparent once government shutdown ends and data releases resume.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
‘On a bottom-up macro basis (if such a thing exists), however, the AI investment boom already looks pretty far out over its skis.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
November 11, 2025 at 8:09 PM
‘On a bottom-up macro basis (if such a thing exists), however, the AI investment boom already looks pretty far out over its skis.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
‘Unlike 19th-century railroads, or the Dotcom boom’s fiber-optic cables, the graphics-processing units (GPUs) fueling today’s AI mania are short-lived assets with a shelf life of perhaps five years.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
November 11, 2025 at 7:42 PM
‘Unlike 19th-century railroads, or the Dotcom boom’s fiber-optic cables, the graphics-processing units (GPUs) fueling today’s AI mania are short-lived assets with a shelf life of perhaps five years.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
👉Softbank sells entire Nvidia position.
👉Oracle debt downgraded.
👉Meta financing games revealed.
👉OpenAI CEO @sama couldn’t explain how company would meet its $1.4 T obligations.
👉Coreweave drops 20% in a week.
You do the math.
👉Oracle debt downgraded.
👉Meta financing games revealed.
👉OpenAI CEO @sama couldn’t explain how company would meet its $1.4 T obligations.
👉Coreweave drops 20% in a week.
You do the math.
November 11, 2025 at 6:52 PM
👉Softbank sells entire Nvidia position.
👉Oracle debt downgraded.
👉Meta financing games revealed.
👉OpenAI CEO @sama couldn’t explain how company would meet its $1.4 T obligations.
👉Coreweave drops 20% in a week.
You do the math.
👉Oracle debt downgraded.
👉Meta financing games revealed.
👉OpenAI CEO @sama couldn’t explain how company would meet its $1.4 T obligations.
👉Coreweave drops 20% in a week.
You do the math.
‘Chinese AI models currently rank at or near the top in every task from coding to video generation... China’s manufacturing sector, meanwhile, is rocketing past the U.S. in bringing AI into the physical world through robotaxis, autonomous drones and humanoid robots.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
The AI Cold War That Will Redefine Everything
Beijing is betting that “swarms beat the titan.” Its push for warp speed progress stretches from the wealthy tech hubs on China’s coast to remote outposts a thousand miles inland.
www.wsj.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:15 PM
‘Chinese AI models currently rank at or near the top in every task from coding to video generation... China’s manufacturing sector, meanwhile, is rocketing past the U.S. in bringing AI into the physical world through robotaxis, autonomous drones and humanoid robots.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...
‘Investors have been selling off the debt of US tech heavyweights, showing how jitters over Silicon Valley’s boom in spending on artificial intelligence have spilled into the bond market.’ www.ft.com/content/d2bf...
Investor angst over Big Tech’s AI spending spills into bond market
Debt issued by groups building data centres has been hit in recent weeks
www.ft.com
November 11, 2025 at 4:06 PM
‘Investors have been selling off the debt of US tech heavyweights, showing how jitters over Silicon Valley’s boom in spending on artificial intelligence have spilled into the bond market.’ www.ft.com/content/d2bf...
‘LeCun has long argued that the LLMs that Zuckerberg has put at the centre of his strategy are “useful” but will never be able to reason and plan like humans, increasingly appearing at odds with his boss’s AI vision.’ www.ft.com/content/c586...
Meta chief AI scientist Yann LeCun plans to exit and launch own start-up
Turing Award winner seeks to depart as Mark Zuckerberg makes ‘superintelligence’ push
www.ft.com
November 11, 2025 at 3:59 PM
‘LeCun has long argued that the LLMs that Zuckerberg has put at the centre of his strategy are “useful” but will never be able to reason and plan like humans, increasingly appearing at odds with his boss’s AI vision.’ www.ft.com/content/c586...
Total Annual Health Insurance Payment per Family in the US: $26,993 www.apolloacademy.com/total-annual...
November 11, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Total Annual Health Insurance Payment per Family in the US: $26,993 www.apolloacademy.com/total-annual...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
‘Semiconductor flows were robust, especially in SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF), which saw the strongest weekly inflow since the fund’s 2011 inception.’ thedailyshot.com/2025/11/11/u...
November 11, 2025 at 3:40 PM
‘Semiconductor flows were robust, especially in SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF), which saw the strongest weekly inflow since the fund’s 2011 inception.’ thedailyshot.com/2025/11/11/u...
“A persistent number of S&P 500 record highs over four months has typically been a sign of exhaustion, with the world’s most benchmarked index displaying unfavorable returns and consistency over the next eight weeks.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/794 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
November 11, 2025 at 3:27 PM
“A persistent number of S&P 500 record highs over four months has typically been a sign of exhaustion, with the world’s most benchmarked index displaying unfavorable returns and consistency over the next eight weeks.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/794 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
“After suffering from weekend withdrawal, traders have been so eager to buy after the weekend that QQQ has gapped up at least 0.5% on the first trading day of the week, a record 7 straight times.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/794 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
November 11, 2025 at 3:25 PM
“After suffering from weekend withdrawal, traders have been so eager to buy after the weekend that QQQ has gapped up at least 0.5% on the first trading day of the week, a record 7 straight times.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/794 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
Reposted by Jesse Felder
JP made clear a couple weeks ago that while the Fed balance sheet may expand, the maturity profile is set to contract meaningfully, forcing the private sector to hold more duration ahead.
November 10, 2025 at 6:13 PM
JP made clear a couple weeks ago that while the Fed balance sheet may expand, the maturity profile is set to contract meaningfully, forcing the private sector to hold more duration ahead.
‘For a company that’s burning more than twice what it’s earning, OpenAI is giddily rolling out some ingeniously reckless new ways of racking up losses.’ www.forbes.com/sites/phoebe...
November 10, 2025 at 6:06 PM
‘For a company that’s burning more than twice what it’s earning, OpenAI is giddily rolling out some ingeniously reckless new ways of racking up losses.’ www.forbes.com/sites/phoebe...
‘The entire picture depends on the mega caps, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 responsible for 82% of the S&P 500’s 12% EPS growth.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
November 10, 2025 at 6:02 PM
‘The entire picture depends on the mega caps, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 responsible for 82% of the S&P 500’s 12% EPS growth.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
‘Using it for even for benign tasks such as figuring out a fitness routine or deciding what to wear feels an increasingly political choice. OK, so ChatGPT helps you write your grocery list. Does your individual convenience outweigh the societal harm it can cause?‘ www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
‘It shows such a laziness’: why I refuse to date someone who uses ChatGPT
It’s the ultimate ick: trying to form a deep, lasting connection with a person who outsources original thought
www.theguardian.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:59 PM
‘Using it for even for benign tasks such as figuring out a fitness routine or deciding what to wear feels an increasingly political choice. OK, so ChatGPT helps you write your grocery list. Does your individual convenience outweigh the societal harm it can cause?‘ www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
‘If we look at the ratio of the unemployment rate for 20-24-year-olds with that of the overall economy, we find that it is at an all-time high going back to 1947.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
November 10, 2025 at 5:49 PM
‘If we look at the ratio of the unemployment rate for 20-24-year-olds with that of the overall economy, we find that it is at an all-time high going back to 1947.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
‘More companies, many of them penny stocks seeking ways to boost profits, are launching daily. But as bitcoin sags, they are turning to esoteric, more volatile tokens in a bid to amplify returns.’ www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Crypto treasury companies pivot to fringe tokens, stoking volatility fears
As companies focused on stockpiling bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies come under pressure amid market saturation and souring sentiment, new entrants are pushing into less popular tokens, stoking worries over increased volatility.
www.reuters.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:41 PM
‘More companies, many of them penny stocks seeking ways to boost profits, are launching daily. But as bitcoin sags, they are turning to esoteric, more volatile tokens in a bid to amplify returns.’ www.reuters.com/business/fin...
‘China installed 429GW of new power generation capacity in 2024, more than six times the net capacity added in the US during that time. Unless the US changes something, it risks becoming a consumer as opposed to an innovator in both energy and AI tech.’ www.ft.com/content/fecd...
November 10, 2025 at 5:34 PM
‘China installed 429GW of new power generation capacity in 2024, more than six times the net capacity added in the US during that time. Unless the US changes something, it risks becoming a consumer as opposed to an innovator in both energy and AI tech.’ www.ft.com/content/fecd...
‘Microsoft hasn’t come close to explaining the full effects of its OpenAI dealings on its own financial statements. This isn’t supposed to be optional.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/micr...
Microsoft’s Dealings With OpenAI Still Need a Lot More Sunlight
The company’s new disclosures only underscore how much remains hidden.
www.wsj.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:25 PM
‘Microsoft hasn’t come close to explaining the full effects of its OpenAI dealings on its own financial statements. This isn’t supposed to be optional.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/micr...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Interesting to see GOLDMAN — which has been pretty constructive on the sustainability of the AI/capex spend — start to fold in some caution:
“.. history suggests that today’s tight credit spreads may be vulnerable not just to downside risks to the economy
but to increased use of debt ..” 👀
“.. history suggests that today’s tight credit spreads may be vulnerable not just to downside risks to the economy
but to increased use of debt ..” 👀
November 10, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Interesting to see GOLDMAN — which has been pretty constructive on the sustainability of the AI/capex spend — start to fold in some caution:
“.. history suggests that today’s tight credit spreads may be vulnerable not just to downside risks to the economy
but to increased use of debt ..” 👀
“.. history suggests that today’s tight credit spreads may be vulnerable not just to downside risks to the economy
but to increased use of debt ..” 👀
Reposted by Jesse Felder
BURRY won’t let up — now arguing that Oracle and Meta are overstating earnings by understating depreciation:
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
November 10, 2025 at 4:58 PM
BURRY won’t let up — now arguing that Oracle and Meta are overstating earnings by understating depreciation:
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
“.. By 2028, $ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, $META by 20.8%, etc.”
‘Renovo‘s sudden collapse strikes at the heart of what critics see as a major vulnerability in the private credit market: the disconnect between the valuation of illiquid loans and the performance of the underlying companies.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BlackRock Faces 100% Loss on Private Loan, Adding to Credit Market Pain
About a month ago, BlackRock Inc. deemed the private debt it had extended to Renovo Home Partners, a struggling home improvement company, to be worth 100 cents on the dollar. As of last week, the firm...
www.bloomberg.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:31 PM
‘Renovo‘s sudden collapse strikes at the heart of what critics see as a major vulnerability in the private credit market: the disconnect between the valuation of illiquid loans and the performance of the underlying companies.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends.’ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
BOJ Summary of Opinions Show Next Rate-Hike Nearing
The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wa...
www.wsj.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:25 PM
‘The Bank of Japan’s policy board has signaled that the next interest-rate increase may be coming soon, according to its latest summary of opinions, with members keeping a particular eye on domestic wage trends.’ www.wsj.com/economy/cent...