Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
Founder and editor of The Felder Report: https://thefelderreport.com
Pinned
'The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business'
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
QUOTE
“The...
thefelderreport.com
NEW POST: ‘The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/17/t...
‘Burry cautioned that so-called hyperscalers, including Microsoft and Alphabet, are wasting huge sums on microchips and data centers that will quickly become obsolete, to power AI tools such as chatbots that will become commoditized.’ www.businessinsider.com/big-short-mi...
'Big Short' Michael Burry shared Warren Buffett story to explain AI bets
Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame relayed a Warren Buffett story to warn of wasteful tech spending, and took aim at Nvidia and Palantir again.
www.businessinsider.com
January 18, 2026 at 6:14 PM
‘Burry cautioned that so-called hyperscalers, including Microsoft and Alphabet, are wasting huge sums on microchips and data centers that will quickly become obsolete, to power AI tools such as chatbots that will become commoditized.’ www.businessinsider.com/big-short-mi...
‘If Tech re-rates from “Software” (35x) to “Real Utility” (12x) in a capital-constrained world, it is a 65% drawdown. Before we begin debates about GPU depreciation rates.’ www.yesigiveafig.com/p/the-thermo...
The Thermodynamic Margin Call
Why Wall Street is Long the Wrong Singularity
www.yesigiveafig.com
January 18, 2026 at 5:57 PM
‘If Tech re-rates from “Software” (35x) to “Real Utility” (12x) in a capital-constrained world, it is a 65% drawdown. Before we begin debates about GPU depreciation rates.’ www.yesigiveafig.com/p/the-thermo...
“Asset Managers again increased their near-record short VIX positions this week. The only comparable time was July 2024. SPX pulled back a month later and VIX spiked.” www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social
January 18, 2026 at 4:34 PM
“Asset Managers again increased their near-record short VIX positions this week. The only comparable time was July 2024. SPX pulled back a month later and VIX spiked.” www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social
‘The irony is that it’s easier to trust fake news. It’s consistent, simplified, coherent and predictable, all the things that humans look for when we’re seeking solace.’ seths.blog/2026/01/fake...
Fake news and trust
Celebrity gossip, fortune-telling and superstitions are the original forms of fake news, but now it’s increasingly widespread. In every field from science to world affairs, it’s troubli…
seths.blog
January 18, 2026 at 4:28 PM
‘The irony is that it’s easier to trust fake news. It’s consistent, simplified, coherent and predictable, all the things that humans look for when we’re seeking solace.’ seths.blog/2026/01/fake...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
A Sunday Morning thought:
When we say, "I've had enough," what we are really referencing is the extreme powerlessness and uncertainty we feel arising from an experience.
The corner we feel like we're being painted into is the lower-left corner of the "Stress Center."
When we say, "I've had enough," what we are really referencing is the extreme powerlessness and uncertainty we feel arising from an experience.
The corner we feel like we're being painted into is the lower-left corner of the "Stress Center."
January 18, 2026 at 1:14 PM
A Sunday Morning thought:
When we say, "I've had enough," what we are really referencing is the extreme powerlessness and uncertainty we feel arising from an experience.
The corner we feel like we're being painted into is the lower-left corner of the "Stress Center."
When we say, "I've had enough," what we are really referencing is the extreme powerlessness and uncertainty we feel arising from an experience.
The corner we feel like we're being painted into is the lower-left corner of the "Stress Center."
‘In markets, inflection points are only recognisable in retrospect — sometimes years later. But it looks more and more like US stocks hit an important turning point on the last Wednesday in October.’ ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
January 17, 2026 at 9:06 PM
‘In markets, inflection points are only recognisable in retrospect — sometimes years later. But it looks more and more like US stocks hit an important turning point on the last Wednesday in October.’ ep.ft.com/permalink/em...
‘Renewal has sometimes required a shock: a civil war, a depression, or an existential threat from a peer country. The challenge to the current generation of Americans is to change the country’s course—again—without the need for something so calamitous.’ www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
America has coped with worse things than Donald Trump
Lessons from history for the next three years
www.economist.com
January 17, 2026 at 9:04 PM
‘Renewal has sometimes required a shock: a civil war, a depression, or an existential threat from a peer country. The challenge to the current generation of Americans is to change the country’s course—again—without the need for something so calamitous.’ www.economist.com/leaders/2026...
NEW POST: ‘The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/17/t...
'The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business'
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
QUOTE
“The...
thefelderreport.com
January 17, 2026 at 8:25 PM
NEW POST: ‘The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/17/t...
Reposted by Jesse Felder
Many folks talk about how rising hyperscaler investment will keep growth going without, but few recognize that '25 marked the peak in positive growth impact and in '26 that capex is likely to be an incremental drag.
January 16, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Many folks talk about how rising hyperscaler investment will keep growth going without, but few recognize that '25 marked the peak in positive growth impact and in '26 that capex is likely to be an incremental drag.
‘The man who told everyone never to sell Bitcoin may do just that to meet loan obligations. Strategy has begun to borrow not to buy more crypto but to stash billions in dollars, the equivalent of Heinz’s saying it’s beginning to see the merits in Hunt’s ketchup.’ www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/b...
Is This Billionaire a Financial Genius or a Fraudster?
www.nytimes.com
January 16, 2026 at 6:08 PM
‘The man who told everyone never to sell Bitcoin may do just that to meet loan obligations. Strategy has begun to borrow not to buy more crypto but to stash billions in dollars, the equivalent of Heinz’s saying it’s beginning to see the merits in Hunt’s ketchup.’ www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/b...
‘The Trump administration laid out a plan intended to compel technology companies to effectively fund the construction of new power plants as a way to tame surging consumer utility bills while aiding the development of data centers.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Pushes for Emergency Power Auction to Fuel AI Boom
The Trump administration laid out a plan intended to compel technology companies to effectively fund the construction of new power plants as a way to tame surging consumer utility bills while aiding t...
www.bloomberg.com
January 16, 2026 at 5:53 PM
‘The Trump administration laid out a plan intended to compel technology companies to effectively fund the construction of new power plants as a way to tame surging consumer utility bills while aiding the development of data centers.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
'The WEF consensus is often wrong. So much so that some hedge fund types joke that the smartest trade is to do the opposite of whatever the Davos discourse implies. So could 2026 be the year that fiscal risks finally explode in an “economic reckoning”?’ www.ft.com/content/a609...
Why Japan’s fiscal paradox matters
The country is the darling of investors, but that could change
www.ft.com
January 16, 2026 at 5:45 PM
'The WEF consensus is often wrong. So much so that some hedge fund types joke that the smartest trade is to do the opposite of whatever the Davos discourse implies. So could 2026 be the year that fiscal risks finally explode in an “economic reckoning”?’ www.ft.com/content/a609...
‘Global credit markets are running at their hottest in two decades, prompting some of the world’s biggest money managers, including Aberdeen Investments and Pimco, to warn against complacency about the risks.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 16, 2026 at 5:11 PM
‘Global credit markets are running at their hottest in two decades, prompting some of the world’s biggest money managers, including Aberdeen Investments and Pimco, to warn against complacency about the risks.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“63% of S&P 500 stocks are beating the index YTD. Thats market breadth we haven’t seen since 2001.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/835 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
January 16, 2026 at 4:07 PM
“63% of S&P 500 stocks are beating the index YTD. Thats market breadth we haven’t seen since 2001.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/835 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
‘SPX has endured an average 18% intra-year drawdown during midterm years. When the vote is held with one party in control of both houses of Congress and the presidency and faces the prospect of a loss of control, the market’s average annual advance is just 3.8%.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 16, 2026 at 3:28 PM
‘SPX has endured an average 18% intra-year drawdown during midterm years. When the vote is held with one party in control of both houses of Congress and the presidency and faces the prospect of a loss of control, the market’s average annual advance is just 3.8%.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
‘The paper’s authors find that an investor who buys $1-worth of stocks using fresh cash (or the proceeds from selling other assets such as bonds) pushes up aggregate market value by $3-8.’ www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Is passive investment inflating a stockmarket bubble?
A widely circulated working paper suggests so
www.economist.com
January 15, 2026 at 7:02 PM
‘The paper’s authors find that an investor who buys $1-worth of stocks using fresh cash (or the proceeds from selling other assets such as bonds) pushes up aggregate market value by $3-8.’ www.economist.com/finance-and-...
‘A lengthy period of tightly-coiled price action often has an explosive resolution, much like a spring converting potential energy to kinetic. That outcome, should it materialize, will perhaps threaten some of the speculative trends in other markets.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
January 15, 2026 at 6:49 PM
‘A lengthy period of tightly-coiled price action often has an explosive resolution, much like a spring converting potential energy to kinetic. That outcome, should it materialize, will perhaps threaten some of the speculative trends in other markets.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
’Rising inflation volatility will lead to rising bond volatility. The latter is unstably low and it won’t take much to trigger a potentially explosive move higher.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
January 15, 2026 at 6:46 PM
’Rising inflation volatility will lead to rising bond volatility. The latter is unstably low and it won’t take much to trigger a potentially explosive move higher.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
‘The broad expectation among private economists is that the BOJ will raise rates every six months or so, a pace that currently positions the next likely move in the summer. The weakness in the yen could prompt them to bring forward those rate hikes.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BOJ Is Said to Heighten Focus on Price Impact of Weak Yen
Bank of Japan officials are paying increasing attention to the yen’s potential impact on inflation, with possible implications for future rate hikes after a likely hold decision next week, according t...
www.bloomberg.com
January 15, 2026 at 6:06 PM
‘The broad expectation among private economists is that the BOJ will raise rates every six months or so, a pace that currently positions the next likely move in the summer. The weakness in the yen could prompt them to bring forward those rate hikes.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
RAGHURAM G. RAJAN: ‘Recent developments suggest that the US Federal Reserve's bond purchases are no longer just a "monetary operation," but an essential component of the US government's fiscal financing.‘ www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...
Are Central Banks Enabling Unsustainable Government Deficits?
Raghuram G. Rajan worries about the US Federal Reserve's increasingly entrenched role in fiscal financing.
www.project-syndicate.org
January 15, 2026 at 6:00 PM
RAGHURAM G. RAJAN: ‘Recent developments suggest that the US Federal Reserve's bond purchases are no longer just a "monetary operation," but an essential component of the US government's fiscal financing.‘ www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/f...
‘S&P EPS are almost universally expected to increase solidly again during 2026. However, the continued rising trend in the unemployment rate is telling a much more cautious story when it comes to potential profit outcomes.‘ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/market-mes... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
January 15, 2026 at 5:53 PM
‘S&P EPS are almost universally expected to increase solidly again during 2026. However, the continued rising trend in the unemployment rate is telling a much more cautious story when it comes to potential profit outcomes.‘ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/market-mes... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social
‘We’ll remember him as the chair who kept the Everything Bubble inflated—aggressively expanding the Fed’s balance sheet, fueling wealth inequality, creating an affordability crisis and leaving a gov. increasingly dependent on the Fed to finance its debt.’ www.palmvalleycapital.com/post/doody-c...
January 15, 2026 at 5:46 PM
‘We’ll remember him as the chair who kept the Everything Bubble inflated—aggressively expanding the Fed’s balance sheet, fueling wealth inequality, creating an affordability crisis and leaving a gov. increasingly dependent on the Fed to finance its debt.’ www.palmvalleycapital.com/post/doody-c...
Forty-Two Percent of Gen Z Adults Are Ready To Begin Investing in 2026 civicscience.com/forty-two-pe...
January 15, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Forty-Two Percent of Gen Z Adults Are Ready To Begin Investing in 2026 civicscience.com/forty-two-pe...
‘Incorporating the PPI data, Nomura forecasts year-over-year core PCE inflation likely accelerated above 3% in December.‘ thedailyshot.com/2026/01/15/e... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social
January 15, 2026 at 3:59 PM
‘Incorporating the PPI data, Nomura forecasts year-over-year core PCE inflation likely accelerated above 3% in December.‘ thedailyshot.com/2026/01/15/e... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social
‘Goldman’s Marquee client poll shows bullishness at levels seen only three other times in the past decade — in late 2017, late 2020, and late 2024. In two of those instances, markets experienced a correction within three months, the bank said.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 15, 2026 at 3:54 PM
‘Goldman’s Marquee client poll shows bullishness at levels seen only three other times in the past decade — in late 2017, late 2020, and late 2024. In two of those instances, markets experienced a correction within three months, the bank said.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...